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FoxxyBrown1111 said:
Sounds interesting. I will play.

BTW I really love that pick since Easteregg last week made me so much annoyed that I almost vomited on his screen picture. ...
U play. .. das ist gut. BTW, who in the world is Easteregg? Dilfer? Tim Hasselbeck? Deion Sanders?

TNF comment: Swearinger is playing like a gol dern idiot giving Houston 3 pts.
 
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Merckx index said:
If you really want evidence that total yards doesn’t mean much, consider that until this past week, Houston was no. 1 in the NFL in defense (fewest yards allowed), and just a couple of weeks before, they were 5th in offense.
Paid NFL writers like Prisco & Easter still go with total yards to make a point or disprove one. They call themself experts, in business for 30 so so yrs blabla... As early as 1990 the first study was out on how important pass efficiency is, still 20+ years later the guys still live in the 70s, going with nonsense like "D wins championships", you have to "establish the run to win" and blabla. They "prove" it with total yards. I mean writers mustn´t be stat geeks but should at least understand the basic concept of cause and effect...

Merckx index said:
It’s funny. Football is a far more complex game than baseball, but while I feel I have a good understanding of it, in a statistical sense, I’m way behind in baseball.
Agree. And in baseball I am also far behind, simply since I stopped following it when Steroid-Rod got handed his 250 million dollar contract in 2000. I said to myself enough is enough. Don´t waste more money for 100-$-game-shirts produced in china to make rich players richer, pay entrance to watch a guy getting 40.000 $ per at bat.... Took me 13 years to watch another full MLB game. Too bad NFL salaries caught up with those stupid MLB and jump ball contracts. Anyway, at least NFL players earn their pay-checks, as do wayyy underpaid cyclists...

Merckx index said:
Ironically, the reason football doesn’t have sabermetrics, yet, is mostly because it’s too complex to do. Every player’s performance is related to everyone else’s, whereas in baseball, so much of it is just one on one
Well, football has sabermetrics. And it´s already hard to follow the heavy stuff. The stat guys are very good in it. Only they don´t understand that you (almost) can´t extract individual performance from team performance. As you said, individual performances interact with all 22 players on the field

Merckx index said:
Ideally, we would like to have a precise measure of, say, a QB’s value that took into account his OL and his WRs, but it’s still too difficult to do.
I like it the way it is. Otherwise this thread wouldn´t exist. No discussions of which QB is the greatest or not, if PM is a playoff choker, which coach is great, who is a bust or not, and so on.

Merckx index said:
Speaking of Luck, saw an article ranking the four young Turks—Luck, RGIII, Wilson and Kaep—for long-term potential. Not what they're doing now, but how they will turn out in the long run. Foxxy and Amster won’t agree, and neither will fans in the NW. Had Luck first, Kaep second, Wilson 3d, RG dead last…
Agree on RG3. I said here since he limped off the field with a destroyed knee, his career is over. Actually I am surprised how good he still is. The mainstream might slaughter him now, but they seem to be blind to the fact that WAS has a pretty bad D, and RG3 is hit like no one else. Can´t be explained solely by his playing style. Anyway, may he end up with a long career on a half body like McMahon, but he won´t have the great career I saw in him when he was healthy.

Luck is below average (number-wise) this year and last year, and his "clutch" play will regress to the mean in the near future (speak no more so much 4th Qtr comebacks). I don´t see anything special in the long run.

So my No. 1 goes to Wilson, Kaep 2nd. He needs to learn to throw soft/touch arced passes sometimes (as absurd as it sounds from my mouth :D), otherwise he is the complete package...
 
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on3m@n@rmy said:
U play. .. das ist gut. BTW, who in the world is Easteregg? Dilfer? Tim Hasselbeck? Deion Sanders?

TNF comment: Swearinger is playing like a gol dern idiot giving Houston 3 pts.
Gregg Easterbrook writes a column on ESPN each week, called TMQ (tuesday morning quarterback).
He started pretty good. Preaches going for it, seems to have a good basic understanding of the game, preaches football safety, was one of the first to understand the backfiring of heavy blitzing...
but when he fails, he does pretty hard. Comes to wrong conclussions b/c he reads the numbers wrong, is stubborn to inovative football ideas, thus hits out pretty hard against the likes of Kelly, basically thinks football 70s style still wins championships (outside of punting), is cherry picking to "prove" his wrong conclussions...
Some posters at ESPN started to call him Easteregg a long time ago when he had another epic fail. I loved it, and now I call him like that. It just fits...

Dilfer is Dilf Dilfer in our community over here, since he showed his non quality passing game (speak pretty much since his NFL career started)...
 
First, Chris E must be celebrating. Gary Kubiak was just fired by the Texans. Though if Wade Phillips is the interim coach, they are destined to go 2-14. Talk is that they'd like Teddy Bridgewater in the draft, as they think Case Keenum is a career backup. Maybe he is, but you put most any QB in that same entire system swapping with Keenum, and he's not going to perform that great. The Texans have a heap of problems.

Merckx index said:
If you really want evidence that total yards doesn’t mean much, consider that until this past week, Houston was no. 1.
I've never liked relying on that stat as much as others do. You can look back to some Steeler and Raven teams in recent years and see they did well in total yards on D. They also did well in total points on D (which means a little more). But there's math calculations beyond that to really take into consideration. Opposition at the time of season, and time of game even, really play a factor. Foxxy's YPP takes those better into consideration. Though I don't like relying heavily on that stat either.

Ironically, the reason football doesn’t have sabermetrics, yet, is mostly because it’s too complex to do. Every player’s performance is related to everyone else’s.
This is true. And comes into what I stated some months ago, that football is the ultimate team sport. People love doing things like pointing fingers at players who choke (kickers are the favorite), but that's rarely the case where one player, even a QB, or a clutch kick, is THE reason for a team's win or loss.

ESPN has a factoring system for QB ranking that is somewhat interesting, but I still don't think takes into consideration a few things. Read about it here. And here is their list.

Speaking of Luck, saw an article ranking the four young Turks...Had Luck first, Kaep second, Wilson 3d, RG dead last…
Well, I do like Luck. I think he has all the tools to be a great QB. But Foxxy is right, the way this season has gone he's starting to look like the next Eli Manning. Winning some games, some clutch drives, but at other times, not.

I agree with Foxxy on RG3. Last year he was special. But I think it's likely his knee never fully healed to 100%, let alone the rest of his game. Thus an average year. But he's a smart guy with a strong arm and good deep field accuracy. You can build a career on that. The Skins have some hope for the future around him, if they can play it right. AND he doesn't get hurt.

I think Wilson is someone who will last a while. He may also end up the next Drew Brees to compare him to his idol. He has a strong arm, moves well without getting hammered the way RG3 does, and he is just obsessed. Every time he talks, it's about the constant drive to improve. It's all he is alive for, to master his position. I also think Kaep will be okay. But he is making a few mistakes we saw in college. Where if the 1st or 2nd guy wasn't open, he'd either run, or try to make something happen, forcing plays. Playing for Nevada that was great, the NFL, it's harder, much harder. But with work, coaching, and receivers, he can get there. He has the arm and size.

As to writers and talking heads. You hear what Foxxy says all the time. On the radio and TV in the NY area Boomer Esiason is big. But while he knows football pretty well, he makes the same mistakes you're talking about. The other week some team failed on a 4th down and he was talking about how that was a mistake and shifted momentum in the game. Seriously? One guy I do like hearing on Yahoo is Sean Salisbury. Who was on ESPN but a stupid sexting photo joke got him pushed out. But that guy is jam packed with football knowledge, very high intensity about it.
 
Alpe d'Huez said:
First, Chris E must be celebrating. Gary Kubiak was just fired by the Texans.
Heard bout that. Feel sorry for Gary, and at the same time, happy. First, he's out of that organization (by organization I exclude the players and only am referring to the front office). Second, he can focus on his health (he had the minor stroke). He will land on his feet. He's a pretty good OC, and I think when he want to he gets back into the NFL as an OC. Maybe the college ranks as an OC.

But about the organization: I heard the owner's explanation of the firing. It was about how the Texans were losing to teams with less talent (e.g. the Jags) and they were doing it by playing stupid and making bad decisions. Flashback to the last game vs the Jags: in comes Schaub, who delivers a great possession to a touchdown. Then comes the bad where he makes a mistake (interception) to end the Texans chance to win the game. Now who's mistake was that? Kubiak's? That was just a bad decision by Schaub. So putting all that on Kubiak makes me wonder about the sanity of the owner. SO, the interview process for the Texans owner to find a long term replacement HC will prolly turn into the candidate HC doing the interviewing of the owner to see if the candidate could work in that environment. That is, IF the candidate HC is one with plenty of credentials.
 
Alpe d'Huez said:
I think Wilson is someone who will last a while. He may also end up the next Drew Brees to compare him to his idol. He has a strong arm, moves well without getting hammered the way RG3 does, and he is just obsessed. Every time he talks, it's about the constant drive to improve. It's all he is alive for, to master his position. I also think Kaep will be okay. But he is making a few mistakes we saw in college. Where if the 1st or 2nd guy wasn't open, he'd either run, or try to make something happen, forcing plays. Playing for Nevada that was great, the NFL, it's harder, much harder. But with work, coaching, and receivers, he can get there. He has the arm and size.
Local papers just ran an article about an interview with Wilson where he was asked Thursday if he should be in the consideration for league MVP. It was a yes or no question. His answer was 417 words, with nearly all of them deflecting the attention away from himself and onto his teammates. His work ethic is amazing b/c he is obsessed as you said. But it is that humility that I really like as well.
 
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on3m@n@rmy said:
Local papers just ran an article about an interview with Wilson where he was asked Thursday if he should be in the consideration for league MVP. It was a yes or no question. His answer was 417 words, with nearly all of them deflecting the attention away from himself and onto his teammates. His work ethic is amazing b/c he is obsessed as you said. But it is that humility that I really like as well.
It is refreshing to hear a frequently interviewed newer player acknowledge what every old player knows: you don't do it by yourself.
He has outward humility but consider his drive and motivation wasn't hurt by media focus on RGIII and Kap kissing his guns. The Little Guy that could has got to have that in the back of his mind and I think this weekend's game will be a perfect benchmark for his skills. Originally the thought was they'd back off a little but I think the team wants to absolutely stamp out 49er morale.
Carolina may be a little tougher to deal with. They're scary real.
 
While I do think SF should be favored at home, and in serious need of a win, I would not the for one second the Seahaeks can't beat them. I'm sure Seattle would love nothing more than to leave the 49ers dead and buried after this weekend. Expect a low scoring game. One of those 13-9 affairs.

Carolina is for real. Props to Foxxy for pointing it out first, last season. But to beat Seattle, in Seattle, will be a very tall task. I need to see them get past the Saints this weekend.
 
Yes, good job Foxxy.

On the Wilson interview when asked if he should be considered for MVP, his reply was refreshing. But TBH that question was a really stupid one to ask.

Well, whoever said I don't make picks anymore? (Prolly me). So here I go breaking my own trend with a few picks from NFC games of major playoff significance...

1. CAR has had some easy games in their streak of 8 consecutive wins, but won all convincingly. And during that streak they won a very close one @ SF and won another close one hosting NE. The Saints and Panthers have much at stake, and NO should be the favorite at home. It could also be a very close game, tough to call. The ESPN expert picks favor the Saints by a vote of 11-3. But I’ll go with visiting CAR, if for nothing else, to give Foxxy something to comment on. :)
Carolina at New Orleans.

2. Another nail biting, close kind of game. Rams are tough, winning 2 of the last 3 by beating the Colts & Bears convincingly, and only losing on the road to a very tough SF team. The Cards are no easy team to beat either, especially at home.
St. Louis at Arizona.

3. SF (8-4) also has a lot at stake hosting SEA (11-1), and a loss by SF and wins by 7-5 ARZ (hosting 5-7 STL), 7-5 PHL (hosting 7-5 DET), & 7-5 DAL (@ 6-6 CHI) could threaten SF making the playoffs. If the Homies win, ARZ and PHL both go to 8-5. DAL will beat CHI and go to 8-5. So the prospect of 8-5 for SF should give them motivational edge over SEA. But don’t expect SEA to lie down or take the game as if it does not matter b/c mathematically SF can still win the division if SF wins out and SEA loses out. Plus there’s the rivalry that will not allow either team to lie down or take the foot off the pedal.
Seattle at San Francisco.
 
FoxxyBrown1111 said:
Guys that´s funny. Just put the names of players in, press return, and you know how all those NFL journos do their stories*.

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/sportsColumnGeneratorShell.php

* I can asure you, I write with my own words and actually thought about them before (ok, unless I was having some lagers :D)
What a humble man you are, deflecting the attention away from yourself just like Russell Wilson. WAIT... I just tried the generator. Cool. It's like Madden 2014 for journalists. Makes me wonder, you must be on the lagers quite a bit :). I've got my stouts chilling in the refer for tomorrow.

p.s.: bookmarked it. Now I'm really gonna be dangeRuss.
 
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You see, everybody can be a journo. Here is my story after sundays Eagles win: :D

Sunday's game was a hard fought contest of wills, but in the end Philadelphia pulled out the much-needed victory over Detroit. Question marks remain for both teams, however. Philadelphia put their doubters on notice that their momentum had finally turned. Detroit was never able to find a way to get the ball in the hands of their explosive playmakers often enough.

Nick Foles's second half performance was critical in the win. At times it appeared he willed his team to victory. "For me it's not about the individual records," he said after the game. "It's all about the team. I'm just glad we were able to go out there and get the win today," he added. Nick Foles will have to build on Sunday's performance if Philadelphia will continue to be successful.

Matthew Stafford's shaky first half performance was too much to overcome, as his late game effort fell short. "Gotta' hand it to Philadelphia. They played well all game. We just couldn't get it done," he said following the game. Matthew Stafford showed a lot of courage in the face of adversity on Sunday. Now he needs to put it all together for Detroit to get back among the top teams in the league.

Detroit is just playing as bunch of individuals and not as a team. They clearly need to get on the same sheet of music. The defense can't continue to rely on the blitz so often. They'll need to be more fundamentally sound in passing situations without rolling the dice and exposing themselves for potential big plays. The offense let themselves become too predictable Sunday. Defenses in this league will pounce quickly.

Philadelphia has proven they can get it done in crunch time. Although Philadelphia has bragging rights for the moment, they'll need to stay hungry and step up next week to avoid a letdown. You could feel the electricity in the stadium from kickoff to the final whistle. It was a game for the ages.
 
Seeing as I'm not being paid to make these picks, nor do I gamble, here goes another week of nothing.

Indianapolis
Tampa Bay
Kansas City
Baltimore
New England
Carolina
NY Jets
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
Denver
San Diego
San Francisco
Arizona
Green Bay
Chicago

There were only a couple of games I actually struggled with: SF vs Seattle, and NO vs Carolina. But, whatever. No money is on the line, so, you know.
 
Jun 22, 2009
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MIN@BAL - Ravens really should take this.
IND@CIN - Looks like pretty much of a home banker.
ATL@GB - Picking the Packers is a shot in the dark this season.
CLE@NE - Home banker in the snow.
OAK@NYJ - I'll go for the Raiders, put your house on the Jets.
DET@PHI - Tough one, a toss up
MIA@PIT - Could also go either way, I'll go for the improving Steelers.
BUF@TB - Pfft, Bucs.
KC@WAS - An upset wouldn't surprise, but I can't pick my Skins.
TEN@DEN - Home banker.
STL@ARI - Cards.
NYG@SD - I'll go for Sandy Eggo, put the house on the Giants.
SEA@SF - Should be a thriller, I'll take a chance on the Hawks away.
CAR@NO - The other thriller! Very impressed with the roll the Panthers are on.
DAL@CHI - Lord, forgive me.....
 
And they're blowing out Washington.

I didn't make any picks this week, other than what I said before about the key games. I think a little funner that way.

Weather in Philly vs. Detroit is awesome! Lions can't hold the ball, and Foles receivers can't seem to run or in it. Crazy blizzard, crazy game!
 
Jun 19, 2009
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Alpe d'Huez said:
While I do think SF should be favored at home, and in serious need of a win, I would not the for one second the Seahaeks can't beat them. I'm sure Seattle would love nothing more than to leave the 49ers dead and buried after this weekend. Expect a low scoring game. One of those 13-9 affairs.
Carolina is for real. Props to Foxxy for pointing it out first, last season. But to beat Seattle, in Seattle, will be a very tall task. I need to see them get past the Saints this weekend.
You nailed that correctly. Strange 2nd half where both teams tried to avoid mistakes but now SF has some momentum to take into the playoffs.
 
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... and my random HFA picks were great. :D
I will go on with it. I don´t have to think about them, and I still end up with a good record.

Omg, DEN/PM is too good. I see it coming, I see it coming... big early playoff bust.

Watta great last play by PIT. I love such plays. Coaches should mix something like that into non-desparation plays. Where is the good ol flea-flicker for example? Remember the Cunny/Moss connections? It was working every time...

Most exciting game/finish? NE-CLE or PHI-DET or MIN-BAL. I take the Pats game. Great onside tactic, great comeback against all odds. I´d have decided for the MIN-Game, but BAL was getting too much help by the refs. That leaves a very sour taste... The snow game in PHI is fun to watch. My number 2. Great non-kicking. That´s true football (& great comeback too by PHI).
 
Those were 3 great games to watch: for the snow bowl in Philly, Chip Kelly knew how to handle the conditions... north/south running game (same kind of stuff he had to face in the PAC-12 when @WSU). Instead of sideways east/west running. I did not see the entire game and there may have been some east/west running, but the game clincher was up the gut.

If HFA picking tactics worked in all games I'd stop watching NFL and turn to NCAA & high school exclusively. Be honest now Foxxy, if SF was to travel to play Houston away next week (which they don't, but just hypothetically), would you pick Houston? If the winner could be as easily picked by just picking the home team for matchups like SF@HOU, that's when I'd flip.

A little diversion: 8 Fahrenheit here, but zero Fahrenheit in Bend Oregon where the 2013 Deschutes Brewery Cup was run....brrrr. Lowest temperature for me is 13 DegF, and THAT was intolerable LINK.
 
FoxxyBrown1111 said:
Omg, DEN/PM is too good. I see it coming, I see it coming... big early playoff bust.
Hey, it was cold in Denver. And PM says critics can stick it where the sun doesn't shine if they think he can't play in the cold.

Of course, they beat Tennessee, playing with a discarded back-up QB, who was actually ahead at the half. Curious to see how well they do against a team who can actually play defense.
Great non-kicking. That´s true football (& great comeback too by PHI).
This I agree with. Which is why they need to first remove the flags from the goal posts, and second, make the goal posts closer together. I'm not for eliminating all FG's, but history has shown the less of them you seen in a game, the more exciting the play. Huge game for McCoy. Who says running is dead in this league (or should be).

FG or not, props to Prater for breaking the record at 64 yards

Big props to Cincy, who looks in the drivers seat come playoff times, and good across both sides of the ball. Great win over the Colts. Can the Bengals get to the 2nd seed?

Looks like Gronk is out for the season with a torn ACL, so maybe the Pats will...

So, are the Saints really that good at home? Or are the Seahawks really that good at home? And the 49ers good enough to beat them (or anyone else on the right Sunday)? But the Saints whipping of the Panthers makes me think they might have what it takes to beat them again in a couple short weeks.

What was Dennis Allen thinking in Oakland? It's going to be very interesting to see what happens in the off season with their QB situation. Between Pryor, McGloin, and rookie top draft pick Tyler Wilson waiting in the wings.

I'm starting to think that Mike Shanahan, who made threats of walking out (did he?!), may be done in Washington. Especially with a short tempered owner. That was an absolutely dismal loss to KC. Of interest was his benching of RG3 in favor of Cousins. He says it was only when the game was out of reach. But he didn't commit to a starter next week. A wise may may be shopping Cousins, as he could get a first round draft pick for him providing Kirk plays well when showcased. This is something they need, as the Skins fall, keep in mind they gave up next season's first round draft pick to StL in order to get RG3.

Everyone remember when Eli was drafted, and such a hot pick by teams hoping to get the next Peyton Manning, that Eli and daddy refused to play in San Diego, so the Chargers traded him, and ended up with Rivers. Well, guess what, Eli has never beaten Rivers. And it was night and day watching them play each other yesterday.
 
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on3m@n@rmy said:
If HFA picking tactics worked in all games...

Vegas since 1978 picked 66% of the winners right. 57% is HFA. The math is, go with the home team and the big favos away. That´s why I picked NE last week as the lone away pick. It truly saves time... :D

But if we come up with a real good prediction game nxt year, I will do well thought picks. EDIT: Either we shall pick against the spread or pick winners and score...

I would pick SF over HOU in HOU. I guess the 49ers would be 10+ point favo, thus a save pick. If we´d do a good picking game next year, I give you guys a quick stat for free:
There were 8.216 (RS-)games played between 1978 and 2012. Here are the numbers;
1-2.5 favos have a .524 Wng.-Pct.
3 pt favos . 579
3.5-6.5 at .656
7 pt favos .726
7.5-9.5 at .779
10 pt at .792
10.5-13.5 at .822
14-16.5 at .874
17+ at .936
 
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Alpe d'Huez said:
Hey, it was cold in Denver.
That´s why i wisely never jumped the bandwaggon of PM being bad in the cold.
All I said (& will, unless PM goes all the way this year) is that PM melts under pressure, especially in the playoffs. I never mentioned weather...
 

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