National Football League

[leftover pie]

I only hope if they do, they go back to either the yellow/blue or white/blue colors, not that current gold/dark blue.

and bring back barefoot kickers!

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Yes I know. And I hope you don´t take my rants against the Seahawks too serious. It´s just like I said: Can´t stand "half-teams" winning SBs. But nothing against their fans. Last night some of them were watching with us the Cowboys-Giants game. You could imagine that I made a share of jokes about the Seahawks when the final Rams-SEA score was anounced. I celebrated that one quite a while, and then some more. They took it easy...

We're good. Can't take personal preferences too serious. How dull it would be if we all had the exact same preferences. Then there'd be zilch to discuss... and rant about.

I stay with Marino. I would also consider Warner if he hadn´t fumbleitis.

P Manning, in the pre-game interview of him, said he considered Marino the best.

Finally, hush hush, it is very likely that St. Louis will be moving to Los Angeles at the end of this season, maybe next. Here's a great article explaining why. And there's a slim chance that Oakland will follow suit. What a turnaround that would be, if LA went back to having two teams. The Raiders however do seem to at least be talking about a stadium in Oakland, than St. Louis does, where the idea is on life support.

Personally, I like the blue/white uniforms the best. It would be nice if all NFC West teams were on the West Coast. Rams in LA seems like a natural fit. Oakland in LA seems odd.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

and bring back barefoot kickers!

I can't wrap my brain around kicking a frozen rock barefoot in the middle of winter in a place like Chicago or Green Bay, or anywhere freezing.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Didn´t recall Lansford kicking barefoot... and he was good. 73% FG-Pct. in the 80s was a little bit above average. What could have been him kicking with shoes.

 

[leftover pie]

I can't wrap my brain around kicking a frozen rock barefoot in the middle of winter in a place like Chicago or Green Bay, or anywhere freezing.

though it would be cold, kickers would always carry their own ball out on to the field with them for their field goals and kick offs.

they wouldn't just be using some random ball from the bottom of the ball bag that had been sitting in 2 ft of snow or anything - that could break a foot, shoe or no shoe.

 

[The Hitch]

For this week.

2 more teams that won't win the superbowl- getting harder now. Texans- just lacking in important departments, though I can see them make the playoffs. Chicago, wanted to go for new york but want to be extra sure they don't make the playoffs before betting against another potential fluke.

A team that will lose this week, also falcons. Chicago Bears. Any other week I wouldn't choose this game. Since Chicago are acting like the best team in the NFL when away from home. And Pats have underperformed in all but 2 games including at home. But its as close to a banker as I see this week and I need to use Chicago at some point.


To update my picks then.

Elimination Football
Hitch - Jax, Cle, Oak, Stl, Mia, TB, Tenn, Buff, NYJ, Wash, Atl, MinThis week:Hou, Chi

Reverse Survival Football™.

Hitch - Jax, Jets, Minn, Tenn, Wash,Dal*, ATL, This week: Chi

 

[Merckx index]

We've argued before over who the best QB of all time is, but I found it interesting that Tony Dungy--who coached PM all those years, including his only SB win--recently was asked, and answered it's Brady, easily.

Not going to write off the 49ers yet. There are four one-loss teams in the NFL, and only the Niners have played them all. But they have remaining games at NO, two vs. SE, one more vs. AZ, and SD. Three more losses and a 10-6 record might not be enough for a WC.

Survival: Since I already have three strikes and not much to lose, I might as well be a little bold and take Cincy, at home and needing to recover from a poor three games, over Baltimore.

Past picks: MI*, NYJ, Min, TE, BUF*, OAK, StL*

Elimination: Adding NO and HOU

NYG, JAX, KC, MI, BUF, StL, OAK, TE, CLE, WASH, Pitt, NYJ

 

[leftover pie]

For Elimination Football® this week:

Cleveland / Cincinnati

To add to my list:

NYG / Washington / NYJ / Dallas /Jacksonville / Minnesota / St Louis / Oakland / Miami / Tampa Bay / Atlanta / Pittsburgh


For Reverse Survival Football™ (Loser Bowl):

Rams

my current score: 5 (+1 bonus doughnut point)

Teams used: Titans*, Chargers*, Washington, Jacksonville, Jets(0), Raiders, 49ers

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Tonight I pick the home team, who would have thought?

Not so sure loser anymore/Survival: I go with the SEA (thus CAR) opponent again. They spoiled my season two weeks ago at their homefield, then got me my 2nd strike vs one of the three worst NFL pass defenses, and this week they will strike me out on three consecutive swings vs the team with the worst run defense & one of the worst run offenses. Isn´t that a perfect set-up for another Seahawks loss?
BTW, who said something of a strong SEA schedule?? I don´t see it... (picked so far; Indy, KC, TEN, PHI, TB, DAL*, SL*)

Elimination; TEN (already in panic mode, changing the starting QB; always a bad sign), MIA (DEN, OAK, JAX, SL, TB, MIN, ATL, CHI, NO, NYJ, SEA, BUF so far)

 

[Eshnar]

yep, home team for me too, tonight.

 

[Oldman]

Tonight I pick the home team, who would have thought?

Not so sure loser anymore/Survival: I go with the SEA (thus CAR) opponent again. They spoiled my season two weeks ago at their homefield, then got me my 2nd strike vs one of the three worst NFL pass defenses, and this week they will strike me out on three consecutive swings vs the team with the worst run defense & one of the worst run offenses. Isn´t that a perfect set-up for another Seahawks loss?
BTW, who said something of a strong SEA schedule?? I don´t see it... (picked so far; Indy, KC, TEN, PHI, TB, DAL*, SL*)

Elimination; TEN (already in panic mode, changing the starting QB; always a bad sign), MIA (DEN, OAK, JAX, SL, TB, MIN, ATL, CHI, NO, NYJ, SEA, BUF so far)

You now have established the new spoiler who will no doubt win/out the entire season and beat PM, again. Sorry. We were getting along so well.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

I am still getting well along with you.
Do I understand it correct, you are a little angry because of my rough jokes against the Seahawks?

Do it like you were in the clinic, view everything from a non-fan standpoint, and all will be good.

From my experience on nfl.com & espn.com, the most insults/problems/baiting come from those who call the teams they cheer for as "we" and "our" RB/QB XYZ... all red alerts turn on my side... People who watch football trou subjective fandom: No way to joke around with them, no way to have a serious discussion with them. Sad part: 95% there, are like this. Sometimes I think USA sport fans are people in a big Kindergarten, and those 40+ year old babies cry if there is one negative word about "their" team. As if RB XYZ would care about them. LOL.

OTOH, I guess you are truly grown up, so you can´t be hurt, can you?...

 

[Oldman]

I am still getting well along with you.
Do I understand it correct, you are a little angry because of my rough jokes against the Seahawks?

Do it like you were in the clinic, view everything from a non-fan standpoint, and all will be good.

From my experience on nfl.com & espn.com, the most insults/problems/baiting come from those who call the teams they cheer for as "we" and "our" RB/QB XYZ... all red alerts turn on my side... People who watch football trou subjective fandom: No way to joke around with them, no way to have a serious discussion with them. Sad part: 95% there, are like this. Sometimes I think USA sport fans are people in a big Kindergarten, and those 40+ year old babies cry if there is one negative word about "their" team. As if RB XYZ would care about them. LOL.

OTOH, I guess you are truly grown up, so you can´t be hurt, can you?...

Not hurt at all and having some fun with the only sport that's more of a carnival of excess than cycling. FUBU!
There are lots of people that need to live vicariously. It's good to have a sense of humor on hand as they seldom do.

 

[Amsterhammer]

Tonight - I hate the Bolts almost as much as the Cowgirls. They always fcuk me up, so it would be no surprise if they win just to spite me. Should be a really good game, though.

SD @ DEN

Elimination Football:

Alpe -
Foxxy -
Amsterhammer - Washington, Dallas, N.Y. Giants, Sandy Eggo, Oakland, Jax, Tampa Bay, Houston, Atlanta, Minnesoda, Titans, Rams, Miami, NYJ

On3m@nmy -
Glenn -
Hitch -
Tricycle -
Merckx -
Oldman -
Leftover Pie
Chewy -
Sciocco -
Pricey Sky -
Tonebear -

For Survival Football, you must pick a team you think will lose this weekend. You cannot select them again for the rest of the season. Here are last week's picks. Please help fill in the blank if you picked and I missed it.

Alpe -
Foxxy -
Glenn -
Amsterhammer - (missed pick) Sandy Eggo, (one strike), Oakland, Tampa Bay, Cowgirls (strike 2) Rams (and that was strike 3) Titans
On3m@nmy -
Hitch -
Tricycle -
Merckx -
Oldman -
Leftover Pie -
Chewy -[/QUOTE]

 

[ToreBear]

Just in time tonight, or in a few hours at least.

Elimination Football.
Torebear - Oak, Jax, Tenn, KC, Hou, TB, Stl, Wash, NYJ, Min new picks: Cle, Chi

Reverse Survival:
Torebear - NY Giants, Chicago*, Pitt*, Tenn, Ari, Dal*, NYJ new pick: SD

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Elimination Football®.

NYG, Cle, Jax, StL, TB, Mia, NYJ, Minn, Tenn, Buf, this week: Chicago, Washington

For Survival Football™.

Indy, KC, Minn, Tenn, NYJ, Dal*, NYG, this week: Washington

Tonight's Game:

SD@DEN

 

[Amsterhammer]

For those who may be unaware, the Lions - Falcons game this weekend will be the trial balloon for something brand new. Expansion and marketing demands begot Monday night football, which begot Thursday night football, which has now spawned.............

Sunday Breakfast Football

The game at Wembley will have an "experimental" kick off time of 9:30 AM Eastern. It'll be fascinating to see how many people switch over from talking heads.

 

[Merckx index]

More trouble in Paradise:

Bleacher Report's Mike Freeman…said the issue with some players is they seem to think Wilson is “too close to the front office,” and that Wilson “doesn't always take the blame with teammates for mistakes he makes.” Freeman also said, based on several interviews with Seahawks players, “that some of the black players think Wilson isn't black enough," a strange claim that nonetheless paints the Seahawks situation as a little less close than we remember from last season's playoff run.

And echoing what Foxxy predicted:

Are the players who don’t like Wilson jealous? If that's the case, it presumably won't get better after Wilson goes from his $662,000 base salary this year to a contract extension that might be about $100 million.

And their playoff chances are not looking so rosy, according to the Elo system:

the Elo ratings have the Seahawks as underdogs to make the playoffs. In the simulations we ran after Sunday night’s games, Seattle made the playoffs just 46 percent of the time.

AZ (69%) and SF (57%) are both rated more likely to make the playoffs.

The same system gives SE just a 24% chance of winning the division, and a 6% chance of winning the SB. However, no team except Denver (18%) has a double digit chance of winning the SB. Only Indy is given > 90% chance of winning its division at this point, while Denver and Dallas join Indy as the only teams with > 90% chance of making the postseason.

According to this analysis, PM is the King of Comebacks, winning ten times in the 41 games in which his team trailed by 15 or more points. Brady is 5/25.

To put that in perspective: The odds against an average quarterback duplicating Brady’s feat are roughly the same as the odds of a .500 team winning its first six or seven games of the season.5 The odds against duplicating Manning’s feat are the equivalent of a .500 team starting the season 14-0.

Analyst Shaun King (who hasn’t impressed me with his picks), thinks Jameis Winston is a far better NFL prospect than Marcus Mariota:

“In my opinion, if I am grading them, Winston is 10 times the prospect Mariota is,” King said.

“Physically, he has great size — 6-4, very sturdy build. Built like a pro prospect. Big-time arm — can make all the throws. Great intangibles. Winner. Big-time, big-platform résumé.

“The difference between the two … Winston is a football player. He rises to the occasion. He has that emotion in a player that you’re looking for,” King said. “That’s a question about Mariota, as is him playing his best when the lights are brightest.

“I do think there are some question marks about [whether] can Mariota adapt to a different system,” King said. “If I was a team that was really interested in him, I would have to be convinced that he can come from under center, take five- and seven-step drops, and can throw an NFL route tree.

“Winston makes those NFL-type passes. Mariota doesn’t. He throws a lot of screens. He throws a lot of gimmicky stuff with guys running wide open because of their tempo. The windows Mariota is throwing into are nowhere near as tight as the ones Winston is throwing into.”

This analysis did not take into account obvious character differences, but King still takes Winston even with his baggage. And to the extent that Mariota is in the mode of other running OR QBs, like Darron Thomas, Dennis Dixon, and Jeremiah Masoli, one might question whether his college skills will translate to the NFL. Only Dixon of those three played in the NFL, and he's currently without a team. I hadn't realized that he was on the Ravens' practice squad in 2012, and actually won a SB ring, and was later signed by his old OR coach Kelly with the Eagles, but was released by them, then later by Buffalo, and just a couple of weeks ago was signed then released a week later by AZ.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I'm all for the early NFL game. But you are right about the talking heads. The NY media is so sell-centered much of the time, it's a great distraction for them. People on the west coast will be watching at 6:30am. Hawaii? 3:30am! But the vast majority of east coast media ignores them anyway.

And echoing what Foxxy predicted (about Russell Wilson).

The only way he signs a $100m contract is if they make it deep into the playoffs on his arm and legs. Granted, in many ways he is carrying the offense right now, but I still consider him an above average QB, whose skills are in-line with the $5-8m per year group. That's where QBs like Cam Newton and Carson Palmer are. There is no way he should get a Aaron Rodgers type contract. Then again, the Giants pay Eli Manning about $16m a year, and the stats on his career show him to be very average, at best.

Speaking of QBs, the Titans have demoted Jake Locker, and elevated rookie Zach Mettenberger to start. This is odd to me, because when Locker has been on, he's played fairly well. But he's mostly just hurt too much. But he is reportedly healthy right now. So...?

As far as Winston versus Mariota, I wouldn't take either very high in the draft. But I probably wouldn't draft Winston, period. He seems like a train wreck waiting to happen. Yeah, he's big and has a strong arm. So did Josh Freeman, or Jamarcus Russell for that matter. Winston's mechanics also seem sloppy to me, a wind-up passer who may be a physical athlete, but will require a great deal of work, if you can get through to him. All this tells me that there's a good chance the Oakland Raiders will take him #1 in the draft.

Sorry Foxxy, that's my Oakland Raiders will take him in the draft.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Seahawks pass defense down to 21st. After fielding one of the best ever just less than a year ago.

Is such a meltdown of historical proportions explainable due to normal variance?

Hell no. The only explanation can be they were cheating big time (as elucidated in serveral links last season). The NFL reacted too late in the off season. I am not kidding here: The Seahawks should be disqualified retroactive, the NFL championship for the 2013 season declared vacant as it is with the Armstrong TdF years.

 

[Oldman]

Seahawks pass defense down to 21st. After fielding one of the best ever just less than a year ago.

Is such a meltdown of historical proportions explainable due to normal variance?

Hell no. The only explanation can be they were cheating big time (as elucidated in serveral links last season). The NFL reacted too late in the off season. I am not kidding here: The Seahawks should be disqualified retroactive, the NFL championship for the 2013 season declared vacant as it is with the Armstrong TdF years.

You are obviously kidding and it is very funny. Different personnel, injuries to key players aside...
Weren't you the author behind that theory? How do you view global warming...man made or environmental?

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Hell no. The only explanation can be they were cheating big time.

Really, that's the only reason? Huh! Are you sure global warming didn't play a factor?!

So, I'll ask again. Are you ready to say that if the Seahawks had not cheated like they did, your GOAT Peyton Manning and the Broncos would rightfully be Super Bowl champions now?

Almost every single year the previous year's Super bowl winner heads into the next season with a lot of hype, and almost every one of those teams loses key players, has some players whose egos swell, and their desire to win wanes, and is replaced by self-interest. That's the Seattle team I see now. Not the whole team, but enough players. I wrote about it a couple weeks ago. Watch Arizona play, then watch Seattle play. There seems to be this burning desire to win that Arizona has, that Seattle had a year or two ago. Dallas is looking like that too.

Heck, even Denver seems to have a real focus. But I still think they're going to fade late, the "must finally win" seriousness will take it's toll, PM will make his usual mistakes come playoff time, and they'll be done.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

You are obviously kidding and it is very funny. Different personnel, injuries to key players aside...
Weren't you the author behind that theory? How do you view global warming...man made or environmental?

Got you. Was just waiting for you...
OFC, it all plays a role + their intercetions regressed to the mean.
Yes I was exaggerating... Anyway, the drop is stark, and thus surprised even me. A combi of all going against the Seahawks (stricter rules, regressing, "figured out", morale, and players lost (?) via free agency).
Injuries are over-valued because every team is hit with them (basically it evens out). I remember very well one Vegas bookmaker who said (quoted in Moldeas book) "Injuries don´t make me move the (opening) line, only clusters of them do".

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Really, that's the only reason?

No. See my post quoting Oldman... I was already tipping, so I didn´t see your post.

So, I'll ask again. Are you ready to say that if the Seahawks had not cheated like they did, your GOAT Peyton Manning and the Broncos would rightfully be Super Bowl champions now?

Would have still lost because they figured the plays out.

Almost every single year the previous year's Super bowl winner heads into the next season with a lot of hype, and almost every one of those teams loses key players, has some players whose egos swell, and their desire to win wanes, and is replaced by self-interest. That's the Seattle team I see now. Not the whole team, but enough players. I wrote about it a couple weeks ago. Watch Arizona play, then watch Seattle play. There seems to be this burning desire to win that Arizona has, that Seattle had a year or two ago. Dallas is looking like that too.

Basically agree.

the "must finally win" seriousness will take it's toll, PM will make his usual mistakes come playoff time, and they'll be done.

Absolutely.

 

[The Hitch]

The only way he signs a $100m contract is if they make it deep into the playoffs on his arm and legs. Granted, in many ways he is carrying the offense right now, but I still consider him an above average QB, whose skills are in-line with the $5-8m per year group. That's where QBs like Cam Newton and Carson Palmer are. There is no way he should get a Aaron Rodgers type contract. Then again, the Giants pay Eli Manning about $16m a year, and the stats on his career show him to be very average, at best.
)

5-8 million? What is this the 90's

Backup quarterbacks are in that price range these days. Any serviceable starter is well over 10 mil. Dalton is what 15, smith like 14. Kaepernick even more. Wilson has been better than all 3. Partly also due to the rise in salary cap, but he's going to get at least twice the 8, and no 16 game starter in the foreseeable future is getting any less than 8 figures annual.