National Football League

Page 170 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.
Jun 15, 2009
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FoxxyBrown1111 said:
Bonus prediction: NE 35, DEN 7... You know, nervousness and all... wobbling ducks come to my mind right now... it´s like a high pressure playoff-game. Thus, PM going 14/35 128 0/2 for the first shock loss this year (the 2nd will be the last playoff game by the Broncos).
:) :) :) LOLZ...

But I give Forhead that: Nice stats padding in the end. Gains him more millions, and more applause from the stats geeks. Die rich RS GOAT, but you aint fool me anymore. Loser.
 
Jun 15, 2009
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Eshnar said:
Foxxy, why you no post statistics of our pics anymore? :(
My desaster week circa one month ago spoiled my mood. Inch for inch I gain confidence back, that HFA beats all computer models, stats nerds "knowledge", Vegas, and even Alpes well thought picks (I wasnt sarcastic here Alpe, really mean that as compliment, since I take the competition with you serious).
Only insider infos (or the obvious, like PM melting under pressure, or teams being monstrous away favourites) give you advantage in picking games over the simple act of dressing up at home for playing upcoming games. And I am here to proof that. Just now I remember how @3army said last year he´d give up NFL if it was all about HFA... Well, I hope he doesnt, since its going on everywhere (soccer, AFL, even in pure luck contests like NHL hockey, its in NBA at hefty doses, MLB also, and yes even in german no-audience-Baseball)...
In the end it will show that all those self-proclaimed experts know nothing (I love to quote A´s Billy Beane :)). Be it pundits (they are always wrong with living in the very past), cheaters who sell picks for high amounts of dollars with their "knowledge", VPs like Gorman (or Growman, whatever his name is), or other people standing on a podest (like Easteregg, or scouts who fail in identifying QB talent for example).

IOW: Stats will come this week. :)
 
Jun 22, 2009
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I swear to God, if I had known that it was gonna snow in Foxboro I could never in a million years have gone for the Broncs, for reasons that are well known.

I was down south at a music event and could only follow the Skins game on my phone in the train on the way home. We got the ball back with around 3 mins. left in the 4th, I felt pretty good about are chances of at lest tying it at 29 - and then the wifi fcuked up. :eek: By the time I got it back, the game was over. Can anyone clue me in about those last 3 mins?
 
Count me impressed. Granted, it's only November. But that was an impressive win. Much more convincing than last year, when both teams were supposedly weaker. Maybe the most impressive win by any team this season. Had it been in Denver, I'm going to say the Pats would have won anyway.

FoxxyBrown1111 said:
VPs like Gorman (or Growman, whatever his name is), or other people standing on a podest (like Easteregg, or scouts who fail in identifying QB talent for example).
Jeffery Gorman. Don't know his whole story, only that he was a VP for the Colts for a decade. And two weeks ago he said Washington had a very good chance of beating Dallas even with Colt McCoy at QB, (I ignored him, he was correct), and that the Patriots were fielding the best team since their undefeated season (I ignored him, he was correct again, so far at least).

But pundits, just like Vegas oddsmakers, are still making educated guesses. I mean, Miami was a 1 point favorite over San Diego. They beat them 37-0.

Amsterhammer said:
I swear to God, if I had known that it was gonna snow in Foxboro I could never in a million years have gone fro the Broncs...
The snow ended about noon. Game time it was breezy, and mostly clear. The wind was hardly a factor. The big factor was that the Patriots looked like the superior team on almost every level. Especially at QB.

Who here believes that SF can win the Superbowl still? At home, playing well, they go for the win at the end instead of trying to tie and go to OT, and Kaep fumbles the game away. But from what I can tell, they were simply beaten, this wasn't a lucky game. Arizona, KC, Philly all looked good in solid wins.
 
Alpe d'Huez said:
Count me impressed. Granted, it's only November. But that was an impressive win. Much more convincing than last year, when both teams were supposedly weaker. Maybe the most impressive win by any team this season. Had it been in Denver, I'm going to say the Pats would have won anyway.


Jeffery Gorman. Don't know his whole story, only that he was a VP for the Colts for a decade. And two weeks ago he said Washington had a very good chance of beating Dallas even with Colt McCoy at QB, (I ignored him, he was correct), and that the Patriots were fielding the best team since their undefeated season (I ignored him, he was correct again, so far at least).

But pundits, just like Vegas oddsmakers, are still making educated guesses. I mean, Miami was a 1 point favorite over San Diego. They beat them 37-0.


The snow ended about noon. Game time it was breezy, and mostly clear. The wind was hardly a factor. The big factor was that the Patriots looked like the superior team on almost every level. Especially at QB.

Who here believes that SF can win the Superbowl still? At home, playing well, they go for the win at the end instead of trying to tie and go to OT, and Kaep fumbles the game away. But from what I can tell, they were simply beaten, this wasn't a lucky game. Arizona, KC, Philly all looked good in solid wins.
Did sf go for win instead of tie? Iirc it was 2nd and goal from the 1 +they had the timeout, ready to stop it incase they didn't get the td. Kaep messed it up by fumbling.

Also from what I heard the wind was a factor. The evidence being that when the pats kicked off facing one end it went all the way, and then a quarter later when they kicked off the other way it was caught at the 10 yard line -I can't remember the last time I seen a kick off not make the end zone so for it to fall a full 10 yards short suggests there was something in the air.
 
Jun 15, 2009
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Alpe d'Huez said:
And two weeks ago he said Washington had a very good chance of beating Dallas even with Colt McCoy at QB, (I ignored him, he was correct), and that the Patriots were fielding the best team since their undefeated season (I ignored him, he was correct again, so far at least).
Still don´t heave him to a podest. We don´t know how many predictions he does... so, the more someone does, the better the chance he hits some on the nail (the fails are normally burried in silence)...
That´s why I try to do the least possible (no serious pre-season ones for example, and pretty much joking when picking winners in the RS. Which is irrelevant most of times anyway). I try to give quality ones. Even if they include a whole lot of ranting.
OTOH, you can judge me on the few I do (like Glennon, QBs in general, shutdown pitchers I didn´t even saw, quality of offenses, fluke teams like the Seahawks). That´s about it. I hit the nail pretty often too. I like my record. But I was off pretty bad a few times (like praising PM for one year. Never will do that mistake again OFC). Am I an expert like him now? ;)
Don´t read too much into him. He´s not better than both of us who may don´t know too much either (that includes high paid persons like the honest Beane, scouts, 10.000-hour-game-film-"experts", Easteregg OFC, and HCs who kick on 4th-1 from the opp1yL, like Reid did yet another time today. Ouch)

Alpe d'Huez said:
But pundits, just like Vegas oddsmakers, are still making educated guesses. I mean, Miami was a 1 point favorite over San Diego. They beat them 37-0.
You see... And I picked Miami ... un-educated, unpaid. :D

Alpe d'Huez said:
The big factor was that the Patriots looked like the superior team on almost every level. Especially at QB.
Oh how I love that one. I was waiting to pick apart Forehead until the time finally came again (sooner than thought BTW. I expected it not earlier than January 2015. Didn´t realize some weeks ago the choker had to travel to Boston this early)...
If all people/fans/critics/coaches would see it like me, PM would be paid his worth... Meaning he would be paid like a choker under pressure would be paid like. Instead of being treated like a (wrong) god. He gives high hopes of perfect football, and then melts under pressure (sometimes combined with wind and bad weather)... LOL at this guy. As I said in September: I don´t take this clown serious anymore...
Didn´t even need a weather forecast. Did my pick solely on the importance of the game.

Alpe d'Huez said:
Who here believes that SF can win the Superbowl still? At home, playing well, they go for the win at the end instead of trying to tie and go to OT, and Kaep fumbles the game away.
I guess me. But don´t take that for granted, b/c the NYG are still in the mix. ;)
Only two things are certain:
1.) DEN will never win a SB with Forehead as starting QB. No matter if he tosses 6.000-60 in a RS.
2.) Every other team has a chance to win the SB, no matter how bad they are (I mention the NYG again), as long they are not officially eliminated from playoff contention.

And finally a nugget I found on espn comments (not all are idiots there. Good to realize that):

"The NE organization and NE's fans are both classless....Peyton requested a sunny day, with weather in the mid-60's and no wind. He also asked that the fans be quiet when the Offense is on the field...And this is how they pay him? CLASSLESS."

Gold. Isn´t it? :D

I only would add: And Peyton asked for a soft defense from the start of the game for the purpose of stats padding...
 
Jun 15, 2009
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My new guy Rötli is going hot again, after a real sloowww start... 5 TD passes now??? :eek: Arena football at a completely new level by a non choker. That´s how I like it. :)
 
FoxxyBrown1111 said:
My new guy Rötli is going hot again, after a real sloowww start... 5 TD passes now??? :eek: Arena football at a completely new level by a non choker. That´s how I like it. :)
Oh c'mon, with Baltimores secondary you couldn't win in the GFL! Elam and Franks have no coverage skills whatsoever and Webb is searching his form since 2011. After that he had two torn ACLs and was never the same again. Without Jimmy Smith there was no way they were gonna be able to stop Ben. He did nothing special.
 
Well, the Steelers threw the ball deep with "Rötli", and that's what Foxxy (me too, mostly) likes to see. Well coached team the Steelers, and Ben is playing well.

The Hitch said:
Did sf go for win instead of tie? Iirc it was 2nd and goal from the 1 +they had the timeout, ready to stop it incase they didn't get the td. Kaep messed it up by fumbling.
I thought there were only 2 seconds left? But you may be right. Either way, he bumbled away the win.

Also from what I heard the wind was a factor. The evidence being that when the pats kicked off facing one end it went all the way, and then a quarter later when they kicked off the other way it was caught at the 10 yard line -I can't remember the last time I seen a kick off not make the end zone so for it to fall a full 10 yards short suggests there was something in the air.
When the game started, the Pats took the wind. Meaning the wind at their back in the 1st, and 3rd quarters. After the 1st quarter, the score was Denver 7, New Engalnd 3. Then the Patriots rattled off three TD's and another FG going into the wind, while the Broncos couldn't score with it at their back. The game was over at that point. In the 3Q, Denver did score two TDs into the wind, but the Pats scored 1, plus a FG. While some of the flags may have been blowing, and some long/short kickoffs, the wind was not a factor. The play between Manning and Brady was. One of them came to play, and win.

FoxxyBrown1111 said:
You see... And I picked Miami ... un-educated, unpaid. :D
Yes, and they covered the spread by 36 points, which no one predicted.

I guess me. But don´t take that for granted, b/c the NYG are still in the mix. ;)
In a strange way, you are correct. They may be an average team, but if they can sneak into the playoffs, play the right teams, get a few bounced their way...
 
Alpe d'Huez said:
Well, the Steelers threw the ball deep with "Rötli", and that's what Foxxy (me too, mostly) likes to see. Well coached team the Steelers, and Ben is playing well.
Yes, everybody likes it, who doesn't like Touchdowns? My point was, that he did not (have to) play "well" to beat THAT secondary. Baltimore did that on their own. I'm not saying Ben is overrated or anything. And I don't want to take anything away from Brown, who is a superb WR, but they had it easy yesterday night. That's all.
 
No, I see your point. But the Steelers have been very hot/cold this year. Demolishing Indy and Baltimore, with what looks like a high powered passing offense, then losing to both Cleveland (who actually isn't that bad) and Tampa.

Meanwhile, Colin Kaepernick is saying he crossed the goal like before fumbling, even though the call was not overturned on review. The Rams are upset and saying there is no controversy, he fumbled, end of story. There were 8 seconds left, not 2 like I thought. But it was still a risky play. But regardless of when or how it happened, it's a bit stunning that the Rams defense, who have been terrible against the pass, managed to stun the 49ers, in San Francisco, and held them to just 10 points. The Rams entered Sunday with just 6 sacks all season. They sacked Kaepernick 8 times in this game, including six in the first half. His passing was fair, but the Niners also couldn't run. Just 73 total yards on the ground, 17 of them by Kaep on scrambles. Link to highlights here.

Alpe d'Huez said:
OAK@SEA - Point spread is Sea -16. I would put money on Oakland to cover that.
And I should have. The Raiders almost beat Seattle, in Seattle, and had Carr not thrown two picks early (one tipped, but a great int by Bruce Irvin) and dug the team into such a hole, they would have. He also went after Richard Sherman. Granted, Sherman may be a little over-praised, but he's still damned good. Russell Wilson had a sub average day, against a sub average team. 17-35 for 179. Highlights here.


And Peyton Manning is admitting that he stunk yesterday.

Finally, did anyone notice the large protest against the Redskins name yesterday in Minnesota? Nice to see some Native American leaders speak out vocally against it. Another paper cut...
 
FoxxyBrown1111 said:
My desaster week circa one month ago spoiled my mood. Inch for inch I gain confidence back, that HFA beats all computer models, stats nerds "knowledge", Vegas, and even Alpes well thought picks (I wasnt sarcastic here Alpe, really mean that as compliment, since I take the competition with you serious).
Only insider infos (or the obvious, like PM melting under pressure, or teams being monstrous away favourites) give you advantage in picking games over the simple act of dressing up at home for playing upcoming games. And I am here to proof that. Just now I remember how @3army said last year he´d give up NFL if it was all about HFA... Well, I hope he doesnt, since its going on everywhere (soccer, AFL, even in pure luck contests like NHL hockey, its in NBA at hefty doses, MLB also, and yes even in german no-audience-Baseball)...
Funny, one of the network pre-game shows was going over who they'd pick to win last weekend, and one of the panel members (Jimmy Johnson I think) said something like you might as well just pick the home team. I'm still a fan, but there are other football venues out there that are just as captivating without home crowd being such a factor. No longer do I feel it necessary to watch the bigger, stronger, faster and more violent. To me the value of the game is more about the struggle, and it does not matter how fast, strong, and big the guys are.
 
Would that be college? High school? Pop Warner?!

Home isn't everything, as we witnessed with San Francisco this weekend. In fact, I believe the NY Giants in their two SB runs, had only 1 playoff game at home, a win over Atlanta. The rest were all on the road. Not going to look it up.
 
Jun 15, 2009
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Alpe d'Huez said:
Home isn't everything, as we witnessed with San Francisco this weekend. In fact, I believe the NY Giants in their two SB runs, had only 1 playoff game at home, a win over Atlanta. The rest were all on the road. Not going to look it up.
No, it´s not everything... but it´s the (almost) only constant thing*.
Look at the predictions: If there is an away upset, no one sees it coming, be it Vegas, or the computer model nerds, or "experts". That´s why my simple system works.

* The other being that true superior teams tend to win no matter if at home or not. The smaller the talent gap (which is a given in the NFL) the bigger HFA becomes.

Alpe d'Huez said:
Would that be college? High school? Pop Warner?!
I strongly guess so...
You may remember I wanted to find out if HFA is true across sports and lower talent levels.
That´s when I looked up at german Baseball league games (AFAIR I posted the results here in last December) which are practically played without audiences, and at a much lower level than MLB or minor leagues. I said before doing those stats: If it´s even there, it´s everywhere. And to my surprise: Yes it´s there with the almost same frequency as MLB games that are played with large audiences.
 
I'd be curious to see the hostorical percentage of home/away wins. I'd also like to know the history if you just picked the team with the superior record, what that percentage is. No other factors. Those are about the two most simple, obvious way to make a prediction, in almost every sport at every level I would think.

Lets see if Eli can lead the Giants back. They are at home after all. :)
 
Jan 24, 2012
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Alpe d'Huez said:
I'd be curious to see the hostorical percentage of home/away wins. I'd also like to know the history if you just picked the team with the superior record, what that percentage is. No other factors. Those are about the two most simple, obvious way to make a prediction, in almost every sport at every level I would think.

Lets see if Eli can lead the Giants back. They are at home after all. :)
http://www.nfl.com/features/freakonomics/episode-7
Video says home team wins 57% of the time. Mentions crowd effects, travel effects, familiarity and official bias. Something about a experiment done in Europe about football (soccer) players who recorder higher testosterone levels while at home, and even higher when including a big rival. HFA also has its largest effect during the 1st quarter and drops over time. Also includes a table: MLB - 53.9%, NHL - 55.7%, NFL - 57.3%, NBA - 60.5%, MLS - 69.1%.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/articles/nfl/home-field-advantage-broken-down-by-nfl-team.aspx
This article says 58% since 1990 for the NFL and includes a per team % and another table breaking it down even more.

There's also the PythagExpec, iirc was fairly accurate for the NFL.
 
Jun 15, 2009
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Sciocco said:
http://www.nfl.com/features/freakonomics/episode-7
Video says home team wins 57% of the time. Mentions crowd effects, travel effects, familiarity and official bias. Something about a experiment done in Europe about football (soccer) players who recorder higher testosterone levels while at home, and even higher when including a big rival. HFA also has its largest effect during the 1st quarter and drops over time. Also includes a table: MLB - 53.9%, NHL - 55.7%, NFL - 57.3%, NBA - 60.5%, MLS - 69.1%.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/articles/nfl/home-field-advantage-broken-down-by-nfl-team.aspx
This article says 58% since 1990 for the NFL and includes a per team % and another table breaking it down even more.

There's also the PythagExpec, iirc was fairly accurate for the NFL.
To the bolded: Brian Burke dismissed those influences. And it´s logical because...
1.) HFA goes down the further the game is. As you mentioned, HFA is strongest in the 1st Qtr... but it should go up if crowd noise would explain HFA
2.) If referee bias (which certainly exists) is strong enough to explain HFA, then HFA would improve instead of going down the further the game is. Because refs don´t wanna "annoy" the home crowd especially with late descisions that hurt the home team.
3.) If crowd and ref bias would explain HFA, then there would be no HFA in german Baseball since it´s played in front of empty stands, and thus there is no reason for the ump to "please" home town fans.

@ Alpe; Better-Record I may do next year (sorry, I don´t have numbers now). Should be a dead race since 50% of better record also plays at home. As deadliy a combo as HFA+big away Fav. :D

@ Hail-to-the-Redskins... err... Hail-to-the-Mannings:
Little siz did big bros game of yesterday. Losing big, and then stats padding late for future millions. Clever...
BTW: Either Coughlin is a moron, or a coward, or both OFC.
A moron because he kept Siz even though he should know as a coach that Siz is the worst starting QB in the NFL. She proved that for a decade. Even the last hillbillie knows that by now.
A coward because he knows Siz is bad, but didnt cut (which would have saved NYG über millions, since no roster bonus & high salary, as I explained last season) and/or bench her since he feared the shitstorm of NY media and/or front office pressure told him to play Siz since she still sells tickets.
Either way: Such a person is the lowest of low. Such people are just disgusting... especially in high paid positions pretending to be among ther best.
 
FoxxyBrown1111 said:
@ Alpe; Better-Record I may do next year (sorry, I don´t have numbers now). Should be a dead race since 50% of better record also plays at home. As deadliy a combo as HFA+big away Fav.
If you wanted to make it really boring, someone could just pick all teams favored by Vegas oddsmakers, which I believe is what Pigskin Pick'Em is on the ESPN site. And those picks are tied for second, behind only Cris Carter.

But to just pick like that, by favored teams, home teams, or winning teams, is rather boring, don't you think? I mean we are doing this for fun, aren't we?

Hail-to-the-Mannings: Little siz did big bros game of yesterday. Losing big, and then stats padding late for future millions. Clever...
BTW: Either Coughlin is a moron, or a coward, or both OFC.
I doubt Eli was padding stats for a contract. That's just how the game ends up played. Though I'm sure his agent will bring those numbers up, as will the Manning apologists. I'm certainly not going to defend him.

The funny thing is Foxxy, you don't even listen to NYC radio where you could get a steady stream of it to shape your opinion. You should try listening to Mike Francesca on WFAN in New York. He has every spin in the world why Eli is great, or will be great again, and when he's not, why it's something else, someone else fault. But really it's many of the callers to shows like his that have completely drunk the Eli Kool-Aid.

Not to drag down in that...what a great game by Andrew Luck, who despite still throwing a few duds, made some great passes even with weak pass protection much of the time. He has to be considered in the MVP race, and I still like Indy's chances to get to the big dance.
 
Alpe d'Huez said:
Would that be college? High school? Pop Warner?!

Home isn't everything, as we witnessed with San Francisco this weekend. In fact, I believe the NY Giants in their two SB runs, had only 1 playoff game at home, a win over Atlanta. The rest were all on the road. Not going to look it up.
Very true, and that Rams win is a good example of what keeps alive the hope that HFA is not everything.

In this part of the PNW, Grid Kids is the Pop W equivalent. Unless you have a kid or family member / close friend has a kid in Grid Kids, then it is not that interesting. To coach or officiate grid kids would be interesting. But not watch just for the sake of taking in a game where you don't know someone.

But both high school and college... you betcha. The larger the high school enrollment the better typically, but I've watched some 8-man football that I found to be interesting. In Washington, 8-man (played by the really small schools) is played on a regulation sized field... 100 yds long and 53.3 yds wide... and it is really more wide open. I did some college recruiting film for a kid at that level, which is how I ended up watching quite a few 8-man games.

College... as long as it is small enough. The super large venues, meh, I can do without. I really like DIII. Easy to get in/out, you can have a conversation as it is not overly loud, still some good athletes, some good coaching / game planning, offenses and defenses can be just about as complex as a good DI school, and you tend to get a little more trickery which is always exciting.

EDIT: Speaking of high school, former NFL QB Mark Rypien's son (Brett, of Shadle Park HS in the Greater Spokane League) committed to Boise State U & will be leading Shadle in state playoffs which will be starting here soon. Rated four stars by ESPN, Scout.com, Rivals.com and 247sports.com, he (6-2/185) is also a consensus top 15 quarterback nationally by the four recruiting services. Shadle will playoff vs one of our local teams, so if the game is in town and not away I plan to check it out.
 
Jan 24, 2012
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FoxxyBrown1111 said:
To the bolded: Brian Burke dismissed those influences. And it´s logical because...
1.) HFA goes down the further the game is. As you mentioned, HFA is strongest in the 1st Qtr... but it should go up if crowd noise would explain HFA
2.) If referee bias (which certainly exists) is strong enough to explain HFA, then HFA would improve instead of going down the further the game is. Because refs don´t wanna "annoy" the home crowd especially with late descisions that hurt the home team.
3.) If crowd and ref bias would explain HFA, then there would be no HFA in german Baseball since it´s played in front of empty stands, and thus there is no reason for the ump to "please" home town fans.


@ Alpe; Better-Record I may do next year (sorry, I don´t have numbers now). Should be a dead race since 50% of better record also plays at home. As deadliy a combo as HFA+big away Fav. :D

@ Hail-to-the-Redskins... err... Hail-to-the-Mannings:
Little siz did big bros game of yesterday. Losing big, and then stats padding late for future millions. Clever...
BTW: Either Coughlin is a moron, or a coward, or both OFC.
A moron because he kept Siz even though he should know as a coach that Siz is the worst starting QB in the NFL. She proved that for a decade. Even the last hillbillie knows that by now.
A coward because he knows Siz is bad, but didnt cut (which would have saved NYG über millions, since no roster bonus & high salary, as I explained last season) and/or bench her since he feared the shitstorm of NY media and/or front office pressure told him to play Siz since she still sells tickets.
Either way: Such a person is the lowest of low. Such people are just disgusting... especially in high paid positions pretending to be among ther best.
I agree with pretty much everything you said. One thing I think using HFA is great for is when people are picking games such as a few do on this forum. Just auto select all the home teams then go through and make a few adjustments as you see fit.

I'd really like to see HFA and superior record broken down.
-Superior record teams home win %
-Superior record teams away win %
-Inferior record teams home win %
-Inferior record teams away win %
-Equal record teams home win %
-Equal record teams away win %

May also be interesting to see include how much of a difference there is between teams.

I don't watch any football really, besides my alma mater occasionally. Statistics are always fun though...
 
Almost football time again - seems like there's hardly a gap between one week and the next.


For Elimination Football® this week:

Tennessee (duh) / Chicago

To add to my list:

NYG / Washington / NYJ / Dallas /Jacksonville / Minnesota / St Louis / Oakland / Miami / Tampa Bay / Atlanta / Pittsburgh / Cleveland / Cincinnati / Carolina / Indianapolis


For Reverse Survival Football™ (Loser Bowl):

This is a tough one, starting to run out of "locks", thinking this week I will go with:

Chicago Bears - playing division rivals away from home at Lambeau.

my current score: 7 (+1 bonus doughnut point)

Teams used: Titans*, Chargers*, Washington, Jacksonville, Jets(0), Raiders, 49ers, Rams, Buccaneers
 
Survival: CHI

Past picks: MI*, NYJ, Min, TE, BUF*, OAK, StL*, BAL, JAX

Elimination: Adding CHI and ATL

NYG, JAX, KC, MI, BUF, StL, OAK, TE, CLE, WASH, Pitt, NYJ, NO, HOU, TB, MIN

Jerry Rice believes the 49ers problems stem from Harbaugh. Rice thinks Harbaugh is not coming back next year, the team knows it, and it’s affecting their play. There have been a lot of rumors about strife between Harbaugh and management, and between Harbaugh and players. One thing we know for sure is that Harbaugh had been angling for a very large contract, the management’s position was, win a SB first. If the team doesn’t even make the playoffs, the management isn’t going to offer him much, and the chances of his walking are even better, particularly with the Michigan job apparently possible.

And the 49ers’ playoff hopes are dim. They’re now 17th in one power ranking, a real come-down for a team that was a preseason favorite to win it all by several sportswriters. A division title is almost certainly out of reach, and just for a WC they probably need to finish at least 10-6, which means 6-2 the rest of the way, and it’s quite possible 10-6 doesn’t get them in. The one thing they have going for them is they have beaten Dallas and Philly, one of whom will be vying for a WC; they also play SE twice, so have the possibility of taking the tie-breaker with that WC contender, too. But winning tie-breakers doesn’t help unless you’re, you know, actually tied. And besides those two games vs. SE, they have to play AZ again, SD and the Saints in NO. That last is this Sunday, and if they lose that game, I think I will be adding them to my elimination list.

Sciocco said:
http://www.sportingcharts.com/articles/nfl/home-field-advantage-broken-down-by-nfl-team.aspx
This article says 58% since 1990 for the NFL and includes a per team % and another table breaking it down even more.
Interesting data, but when it comes to individual teams, I think it varies a lot over time. I was surprised to learn that the 49ers had one of the highest home vs. road win % in the 2002-2011 period, because I remember that in the 1980s they were a great road team that set a record for consecutive wins on the road. I’d be interested to see the data for that period. Bill Walsh once speculated it was because when they lived in a hotel they focused more on the game than when they were living at home.

And the Saints had no differential at all, making them one of the most venue-neutral teams in the NFL? That backs up a claim Brees made last year, but it’s really hard to reconcile with what they’ve been doing recently. It was just a year or so ago they lost almost every road game and won just about every home game, with a huge difference in point differential.

And this raises another issue. Sometimes HFA may be at least partly an advantage for a certain kind of field, like artificial turf with or without a dome. Teams that play like that at home may play somewhat worse on natural grass, just because of that and not necessarily because it’s on the road. And it can work both ways. I’m going on memory, but IIRC, the 49ers of the 80s, though playing on grass at home, were a great team on artificial turf, and that may have contributed to their road success back then.

The Pats had the highest home and road win %. That doesn’t surprise me.
 
Elimination Football®.

NYG, Cle, Jax, StL, TB, Mia, NYJ, Min, Ten, Buf, Chi, Wash, Atl, Hou. This week: Carolina and San Francisco (I'll call it now, Merckx).

Survival Football™.

Indy, KC, Minn, Tenn, NYJ, Dal*, NYG, Wash*, St.L, this week: Chicago

Tonight's Game:

CLE@CIN

This is another good week though, as a lot of the teams with better records are on the road. Should make predicting fun.
 
Alpe, how comes you have 16 picks in elimination, whereas with the 2 I add today I will have 18? We started heading into week 2 right, meaning last week should have been the halfway point(16) and this week the next 2 (18) no?

For this week -cowboys- defense wins championships.
Chargers- looking to be taking foot off gas a bit and I don't think team around rivers is good enough.


A team that will lose this week, 3rd toke I'll take the team visiting Seattle. I'm 1-1 up there but really don't favour the gigantes coming off mnf.

To update my picks then.

Elimination Football
Hitch - Jax, Cle, Oak, Stl, Mia, TB, Tenn, Buff, NYJ, Wash, Atl, Min, Hou, Chi, Car, NYGThis week:sf, sd

Reverse Survival Football™.

Hitch - Jax, Jets, Minn, Tenn, Wash,Dal*, ATL, Chi, oak This week: nyg[/QUOTE]
 

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