Survival: CHI
Past picks: MI*, NYJ, Min, TE, BUF*, OAK, StL*, BAL, JAX
Elimination: Adding CHI and ATL
NYG, JAX, KC, MI, BUF, StL, OAK, TE, CLE, WASH, Pitt, NYJ, NO, HOU, TB, MIN
Jerry Rice believes the 49ers problems stem from Harbaugh. Rice thinks Harbaugh is not coming back next year, the team knows it, and it’s affecting their play. There have been a lot of rumors about strife between Harbaugh and management, and between Harbaugh and players. One thing we know for sure is that Harbaugh had been angling for a very large contract, the management’s position was, win a SB first. If the team doesn’t even make the playoffs, the management isn’t going to offer him much, and the chances of his walking are even better, particularly with the Michigan job apparently possible.
And the 49ers’ playoff hopes are dim. They’re now 17th in one power ranking, a real come-down for a team that was a preseason favorite to win it all by several sportswriters. A division title is almost certainly out of reach, and just for a WC they probably need to finish at least 10-6, which means 6-2 the rest of the way, and it’s quite possible 10-6 doesn’t get them in. The one thing they have going for them is they have beaten Dallas and Philly, one of whom will be vying for a WC; they also play SE twice, so have the possibility of taking the tie-breaker with that WC contender, too. But winning tie-breakers doesn’t help unless you’re, you know, actually tied. And besides those two games vs. SE, they have to play AZ again, SD and the Saints in NO. That last is this Sunday, and if they lose that game, I think I will be adding them to my elimination list.
Sciocco said:
http://www.sportingcharts.com/articles/nfl/home-field-advantage-broken-down-by-nfl-team.aspx
This article says 58% since 1990 for the NFL and includes a per team % and another table breaking it down even more.
Interesting data, but when it comes to individual teams, I think it varies a lot over time. I was surprised to learn that the 49ers had one of the highest home vs. road win % in the 2002-2011 period, because I remember that in the 1980s they were a great road team that set a record for consecutive wins on the road. I’d be interested to see the data for that period. Bill Walsh once speculated it was because when they lived in a hotel they focused more on the game than when they were living at home.
And the Saints had no differential at all, making them one of the most venue-neutral teams in the NFL? That backs up a claim Brees made last year, but it’s really hard to reconcile with what they’ve been doing recently. It was just a year or so ago they lost almost every road game and won just about every home game, with a huge difference in point differential.
And this raises another issue. Sometimes HFA may be at least partly an advantage for a certain kind of field, like artificial turf with or without a dome. Teams that play like that at home may play somewhat worse on natural grass, just because of that and not necessarily because it’s on the road. And it can work both ways. I’m going on memory, but IIRC, the 49ers of the 80s, though playing on grass at home, were a great team on artificial turf, and that may have contributed to their road success back then.
The Pats had the highest home and road win %. That doesn’t surprise me.