National Football League

[on3m@n@rmy]

Good article on the WSJ why the draft is changing:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-most-awkward-nfl-draft-ever-1430170388?mod=mktw

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Good article. This, once again, shows why Belicheck has it right. He almost always moves down the draft. Or takes obscure players that he knows he can develop and fit into his system. While I fully expect him to draft two DB's with his first two picks, in no way could I see him moving up to get a "better" player.

Speaking of draft genius, there is strong talk that Cleveland is interested in offering their two 1st round draft picks, or/plus their next year first round pick to Tennessee in exchange for the #2 pick, with which they would take Mariota. This article spells it out, saying the Browns aren't going anywhere until they can get a championship caliber QB. Assuming all along that Mariota is a championship level QB. Then again, I am sure the Browns assumed Manziel, Weeden, Quinn and Couch were all championship level QBs too.

http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2015/04/the_browns_should_trade_up_to.html

Looking back, Couch is maybe the best example. I'd say he actually had above average talent, in the right system he might have someday become a championship level QB, maybe. But they piled everything on him, and drafted no support for him if you look into their history. And where did that get them?

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Seven hours to go, and the clock is ticking. The latest rumors are now that Cleveland, in it's infinite wisdom, is still trying to pry Sam Bradford away from Philadelphia. Even though Sam has said he doesn't want to play there long term. Just...wow. But if Chip Kelly somehow pulls this off and comes away with something better than he gave up, I still won't label him a genius, considering what he gave up. News is the Browns are also willing to give up not only draft picks, but Fletcher Cox and/or Mychal Kendricks in order to either get Bradford, or move up to get Mariota, which the team is reportedly divided on. Some thinking he's exactly what they need, others not interested in him. Decades later, the Browns continue to make some of the worst decisions, year after year. Sad for their fans.

The funny thing is, everyone is assuming TB is taking Winston, and aren't interested in anyone else, or in moving away from the pick. What happens if the Browns make all these moves, and then TB takes Mariota. Do they then take Winston anyway?!

What happens if the Browns trade away their 1st round picks for Bradford, and Mariota falls to 12 (Philly now), do they take him? I would have to imagine yes, they would. If Kelly pulls that off, I would be impressed. But that's only halfway there. Mariota, and the rest of his team, still have to perform. Big unknowns.

As Chris Wasseling said on NFL.com, we've reached the height of silly season. Yes indeed.

 

[The Hitch]

The NFL Draft "rumours" are like the constant crap the British tabloids (and British broadsheets) sell for "transfer rumours" during the football off season here (which unfortunately only lasts about 3 weeks, not 8 months like in US). They just make some nonesence up that they know will sell, and then put it down as a "rumour".

Anyway, Winston TB looks like a lock and has looked like a lock for a while. Maybe even surprised they didn't announce it pre draft. I guess they are waiting as long as they can just in case anything surfaces but otherwise they'll go with Winston. Or maybe the NFL wants some suspense on the #1 pick so asked Tampa to hold off.
But bookies have it as 1-15 that he'll be the pick. So basically about as certain as Jax not winning the superbowl next year.

I guess the other entertainment will be in seeing what idiocy Cleveland does. Every single person who was behind that Manziel pick last year should be out of a job. That was the dumbest thing I have ever seen. When you have a verified pro ready qb that your own scouts have said should be the number 1 pick and you choose a 5 foot gimmick with no game read ahead of him, if I were a Cleveland fan I would never get over that.

Too bad Buffalo don't have a first round pick cos that front office is almost as dumb. Or maybe they'll sell the farm to move up again.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Belicheck is good at the draft. SEA has done similar tactics since the Carroll - Schneider era began. And then factor in that article (you really don't know how well the rooks will adjust), maybe if the deal is right, trade for or get proven FA talent (Reevis to the Pats last year, Graham to SEA this year [tho jury will still be out on that])... then there are the occasional oopses. Like Percy Harvin to SEA.

Watch out for the Eagles. You could say Chip has his guns loaded to package a deal allowing him to trade up and take Mariota. He can deal a really good RB (and say goodbye to the Wing-T offense ), a mediocre QB (Sam B.) with potential that someone might take a chance on.

Rivers to Tenn so SD can get Mariota? It could happen.

But yes, if the Bucs take Mariota, that would create a stir... for a moment. I'd bet Tenn would snatch him up, being more the style of QB the HC would like to have.

On Cleveland... sometimes it is fun to Monday-morning quarterback their decisions, but in their case it is plain sad. I'd love CLE to turn it around... someday. I kind of miss the crazy barking dog pound.

Any chance Raiders take 2 WRs?

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

CLE is up next. They lost DT Rubin to FA. Lets see if they take Shelton DT from Wash.

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

You usually scrape the scum off the bottom, but Tampa scooped it off the top. Another reason to hate the Bucs.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Good morning friends. I wasn't able to stay up past the first dozen picks or so. Let's see what we have. I'm only going to focus on surprises:

• I'm not completely surprised Tennessee took Mariota, but I am surprised they instantly said he's expected to start from day 1. Really? So, all the talk about Zach Mettenberger and his arm and style (statue) were a ruse?

• Leonard Williams had the highest rating of all players, and when he fell to Washington, they skipped him and took Brandon Sherff? Good pick. What makes this more odd is that the Jets had the next pick, and badly need OL help, and not really DL help, but they now have Williams anyway.

• The Giants took Ereck Flowers at 9. This guy wasn't even the top rated OL at his position, some people had him like 5th best, as he's known as a run blocker. Is that the direction the Giants are going? A lot of people thought they might take Andrus Pete, who fell to New Orleans, who doesn't need him as much, but likely were surprised he was available. Poor Miami was next, and they had to be drooling about Pete as they badly need OL help, only to have the Saints take him.

• Cleveland stayed put, and took a center, which might be a smart pick after all.

• A little surprised two RB's went in the first 15. Gurly could be something special in the Rams system. If he can stay healthy. Gruden was saying he's excellent in pass protection too. All of this should make Nick Foles happy.

• After all the talk that Belicheck would most certainly take a DB, he took the best defensive player left, Malcom Brown, a talented lineman.

• Seattle was happy to trade away their pick.

• Finally, I'm surprised the Eagles didn't take a running back.

• Finally II - Look for Adrien Peterson to get traded today, I'm thinking Dallas. But we'll see. Philadelphia is possible.

Good post Chewy. But time will tell.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

I'm not surprised TEN took Mariota either, but I was hoping Mariota would not get picked by them just because Marcus is not the type of QB Wisenhunt is accustomed to having. So it will be interesting to see who bends. Will TEN try to pigeonhole Marcus into becoming a pure dropback passer, or will the coach try to make use of Marcus's skill set?

I thought Scherff was a great pick for WAS, ignoring the temptation to take DT Williams. Scherff is more in the mold of traditional old HOGS, he is nastier than any of the others available there at #5, power, can play in space, and he can play just about any position on the line including center.

Well, on Flowers to the NYG... La'el Collins (the LSU OT) was not at the draft because he is down south talking to the police about somebody who was murdered. So he is off everyone's radar screen at the moment. So to me, at #9 overall, the pick is either Peat or Flowers. I'm not really as impressed with Peat and here's why. Negatives about Flowers are more technique problems, but those can be corrected and coached. The negative with Peat, believe it or not, is he's not as good an athlete in space and he has trouble with quicker defenders. Look at highlights of Peat and you say Wow, but also look at regular play and you will not be so impressed if at all. Plus Peat just does not look like he's been in the weight room. That can be changed too, but with limited athletic upside I'd rather have Flowers.

I thought CLE had a really good first round. First, maybe by having been singed taking high-risk skill players, they stuck with the lunch pail crew. The trench men. So they get DT Danny Shelton to backfill the hole left by departure of Rubin in free agency. Then they grab not just a center in Cam Erving, but a guy who can play any OL position. This is a great pick because utility men can fill any spot when someone goes down. Now he also is a former DT, moved to LOT 2013, and then in 2014 they put him at center to shore up that part of the line. So he is going to be a bit raw technique-wise, but that can be coached. He also is not just a fat butted kid. He looks like he can pack on more bulk by hitting the wt room.

There were a few possible losers in the draft, some which will have to be seen over time. I thought the picks by GB at#30 (safety Damarius Randall) and NO at #31 (MLB Stephone Anthony) were guys who were down the draft board a ways. But those two guys do have upside. And at the tail end of the first round, this is where you might start to see players selected much higher than their projections. And so, with that in mind, my biggest "L" loser of the draft: the Dallas Cowboys, who at #27 picked CB Byron Jones, who was a projected 6-7th rounder, and who is prolly gonna have to play safety cuz of speed, and all the other projected 1-2nd rounders at safety are still on the board? Puzzling. Must be a relative of the owner.

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

As a Panthers fan, I am baffled by their pick. LB is one of the last positions we needed, and though the guy is a safety possibility, we have that covered too. Our second round pick better be an O lineman or I might freak out.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Yeah, the Cowboys pick reminds me of some of the last few Al Davis made. Where he took a guy who put up great numbers at the combine, but you don't have much of a clue if he can play well.

Agree on what you said about the Browns too. As widely skilled as Cooper is, I'm hoping the Raiders look to the trenches for Rnds 2 and three, they badly need it.

There are a lot of big offensive lineman still on the board, several on the defense too, and I expect to see several come off in the 2nd and third rounds.

Lots of receivers and defensive players taken so far. I don't have the stat, but this must be the most receivers taken in the first round in years.

Curious when Bryce Petty, Garrett Grayson and Brett Hundley go. They are all in that gray area of potential. Each look like projects that need work, and may never be a starter, but may surprise. Several teams are going to take the risk, it's just a matter of when. Maybe the same with Sean Mannion, as he's built like a truck at 6'6" and 230 which can't hurt, and reportedly looked good on his Pro day.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

I agree with you about what positions they Raiders should target next. But it might be tempting to grab another WR to help Derek Carr.

Here's the positions drafted in round 1:
QB-2, RB-2, WR-6, TE-0, C-0, G-2, T-5 = 17 total offensive
DE-3, DT-3, ILB-1, OLB-3, CB-4, S-1 = 15 total defensive
And that even adds up to 32.

And right you are. It is such a deep WR and OT draft, even DE and DT, that there are still some guys who could have gone in the 1st round that didn't. There are a glut of WRs and CBs that are projected 2nd to 4th round talent too. And some decent OLBs.

Tell me though how freakin Bellicheck does it. AGAIN! Is he just that lucky? There he's at #32 overall, he would like to get a DT to replace Wilfork, and projected 1st rounder Malcolm Brown falls in his lap. That had to be a totally stressless easy decision. But as great as the Pats are picking, it is a bit luck to have a need that happens to be a position that is deep in the draft.

As for other teams in round 1, you almost have to say nobody screwed up with the top 12 or so picks this year. Except possibly TEN taking Mariota on the grounds it MAY not be a good fit. Only time will tell on that. But in the bottom half of the draft I thought SF did really well to a) trade down 2 spots to pick up a 4th this year and a 5th next year, and b) still get the guy they wanted in Armstead. They got lots of holes, yes. But that's a good start. And then DEN did well trading up to take DE Shane Ray who had tumbled due to off-field issues. So now they have Ware and Ray to wreak havoc on QBs. Finally, I kind of question the DET pick of G Laken Tomlinson after dropping down due to the trade with DEN. Laken was projected by some to be a 3-4th rounder. BUT he is a superior run blocker. So maybe DET is gearing up to run more, even though they have Megatron, Tate, and so on.

 

[leftover pie]

Also on the Cowboys, they didn't draft a RB, so what do you think their plan is with regards to filling the demarco murray void?

Is Adrian Peterson the goal? Have they backed themsevles into a corner? What say you wise CNewsHeads?

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Dallas signed 7-year vet Darren McFadden from Oakland, and right now he would be their starter. After that, they have (2014 stats):
-Joseph Randle (51 att, 343 yds, 6.7 ypc)
-Lance Dunbar (29 att, 99 yds, 3.4 ypc rushing; 18 rec/22 targets for 217 yds receiving)
Pre-draft Jerry Jones said they do not feel they need to draft a RB. Posturing? I guess not because they did not select a RB in the draft. I think I agree with Jerry. This time. Randle is a legitimate threat to score any time he touches the ball. He can score from a long way out, or he can grind it out down on the goal line. He’s no Marshawn Lynch getting tough yards, but he’s tough enough. Especially with that line. He’s probably not an every down back, otherwise they would not have gone after McFadden. But he is a great complimentary back to McFadden. The Cowboys feel good enough with these guys, so in this draft they took 5 defenders (their weak spot) and just 3 offensive players (2 OTs and a TE). And 2015 was not a great RB crop. So Dallas did well in the draft to concentrate on defense and build depth on offense. But if they get a chance to get AP, they should take a shot at it. Otherwise they can target RB in the 2016 draft. If I’m a Cowboy fan, barring injury, I would not worry about the RB position. They also have one other lesser known RB on their roster.

One team that I feel really screwed the pooch in this draft, and who arguably should start to be considered a bit arrogant in their picking: Seattle. That's my team, so I can dis on them. Frank who? (2nd round essentially unranked DE with off-field domestic baggage from Michigan)? RLY? There were better, less risky players available at that draft position. Does SEA think they can just fix everyone's baggage problems? Ok, Bruce Irvin worked out for the most part, and Frank Clark has some huge upside. Still too much of a risk. The only player SEA drafted I'm excited about is a puny 180 pound WR Tyler Lockett, who triples as a returner and gunner. Otherwise I feel sick SEA keeps expecting OL coach Tom Cable to take 4-5th round OL guys and make them serviceable. Forget about starting one of those OLers for now. Anyone else out there think the same, or is it just me?

 

[leftover pie]

cheers O.M.A. . . interesting to see how that unfolds for the cowboys this year.

I know foxxxy says RBs these days are dime a dozen, but demarco and the cowboys, they really looked the goods to me and seemed like they had a good thing going on.

I don't see why they would disrupt that, but if McFadden can slot in and replace and be dangerous, then not much is lost.

but as with everything, without even looking I'm guessing it's all about the $$$ isn't it?

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Re:

I know foxxxy says RBs these days are dime a dozen, but demarco and the cowboys, they really looked the goods to me and seemed like they had a good thing going on.

Not only these days. Always was like this... At least since I watch/evaluate true Football. It dawned on me very early (even when still being kind of Rookie in understanding the game, like the state I am in now with the AFL): With John Settle & Timmy Smith "ruling" the world as undrafted no-name rookies/1st-yr-players. All but one of them all were/are interchangeable. Even Payton was...

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I think it goes deeper than that. But I generally agree. The OL does most of the work. Look at the old Hogs, they just plugged Timmy Smith in there, and instant success. Remember some of Denver's teams, every guy they tossed in there did either good, or really good. Even Terrell Davis said so.

When I say it goes deeper, you have to look at things like versatility. How well can the back catch passes? Not just screens, but slants, even fly patterns. How durable is your RB? How well can the RB pass block? You also want a player who is someone who both appreciates the OL, and instills confidence in them. Maybe not the team leader, but certainly not a knucklehead.

So when you discuss Walter Payton, you have to recall he was not only a great runner, both with power and in the open field. He also was a great receiver. He was very durable. And a great human being. It was also said about Payton that he was one of the best pass blocking backs ever. I don't doubt it. He returned some kicks, and even threw a few TD passes too. This is why he's often mentioned as the GOAT, as far as RB's go, and maybe as an overall player, period. But therein also lies what we're discussing. Payton was far more than a running back.

Going back to the Cowboys, I imagine McFadden may have an excellent year coming up. He has had durability issues in recent years though. So we'll see.

With Murray now playing in that Wing-T offense Chip Kelly must be concocting, he could possibly end up with negative yardage by season's end.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Idiot of the month award goes to LeSean McCoy, for dredging up the claim once again that Chip Kelly is a racist. This isn't s political thread, but to me this tells me much more about McCoy"s brilliant sense of awareness and judgment, than Kelly. It also calls straight into what Larry Elder said about racism within his own race (Elder is a conservative black commentator).

Cementing McCoy's idiocy is his claim that Kelly has a brilliant football mind. Maybe he's just jealous about missing out in Kelly's new Wishbone offense.

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/05/lesean-mccoy-on-chip-kelly-theres-a-reason-he-got-rid-of-all-the-black-players/

 

[Merckx index]

After four months, Deflategate report is finally in:

The conclusion in the NFL's "Investigative Report Concerning Footballs Used During the AFC Championship Game on January 18, 2015" is damning for Tom Brady, very damning.

"Based on the evidence, it also is our view that it is more probable than not that Tom Brady was at least generally aware of the inappropriate activities of [two New England employees] involving the release of air from Patriots game balls," the Ted Wells Report reads.

In other words: we're positive he cheated but we can't quite prove it.

This didn't need to be a grand and vast conspiracy involving Bill Belichick. It needed just a guy or, in this case, two. It certainly didn't need to go past the QB, but it had to involve the QB. No equipment man in the NFL would ever go rogue and do anything the quarterback didn't want

His report offers the belief that two Pats equipment guys – Jim McNally and John Jastremski – worked with Brady to get the footballs to the quarterback's optimal liking, in this case below the allowable minimum of 12.5 pounds per square inch.

This includes evidence such as text messages throughout the season between McNally and Jastremski discussing how Brady is particular about the football's inflation level.

There is one of Jastremski saying he'd get McNally a "needle" and another where McNally calls himself "the deflator" and jokes that he "hasn't gone to ESPN … yet" (presumably to blow up the story).

Each came in below 12.5 – a range running from 12.3 to 10.5 (avg.: 11.29).

Brady did himself no favors when he told investigators he didn't know McNally's name or what his game-day responsibilities were. Both Jastremski and McNally refuted that. McNally has also been employed by the Pats for all 15 seasons of Brady's career. This felt like Brady pretending to know less than he did or in the parlance of the Wells Report, "not plausible and contradicted by other evidence.”

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/tom-brady-probably-isn-t-innocent-in-deflate-gate--but-wells-report-fails-to-prove-he-s-guilty-223250553.html

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

What may be most ugly is the way both guys paint Brady as an entitled jerk who barely appreciates their hard work, while nitpicking everything they do.

I came away with two conclusions though. First, every team doctors the balls to the QB's liking. Every single team. The Patriots just push the envelope on everything to it's limit, and they are the ones who have been caught.

Second, I didn't see a wink about rule changes. If this really were a problem, you'd think the NFL would recommend that every team use the same balls in the future.

So, had this not been the Pats, I'm starting to think this would have been little more than a tempest in a teapot. Akin to Brad Johnson's doctoring of balls in TB's Super Bowl win.

 

[Amsterhammer]

I saw a few 'experts' this evening, who all agreed that there would be consequences for Brady, ranging from a big fine, to a several game suspension, or combination of both. Oh, how the mighty.....

 

[Tricycle Rider]

Re:

it is more probable than not

What does this even mean?

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

This is funny. When Brady first publicly denied on national camera that there was anything of substance regarding deflategate, the look on his face and eyes then was that of a man lying. But also sad, because his integrity and the integrity of the organization and ownership he represents has been affected. Brady is now the Lance Armstrong of the NFL. Probably true many teams doctor balls to their own liking, but do they all transgress outside the acceptable parameters such as inflated pressure? I don't know.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Yeah, that definitely is going to play into his legacy. It won't seriously tarnish it, but it won't help either. Everyone said the same thing pretty much after that interview. That his level of discomfort made it seem like he was completely lying. Now, we know it's because he was. Strangely, you'd think in retrospect he would have been better prepared for that interview. You'd think they would have had PR people taking him aside and coaching him, like attorneys before trial. This way when he sat down he could have said something akin to, "every QB like's the balls prepared at least a little and I'm no different. I've said this before, and that I like the ball slightly under-inflated, and nothing has changed. But I never instructed anyone on the equipment team to break the rules, nor specifically to under-inflate the balls below the limit of the rule." Then just repeat that every which way whenever they ask the question over and over. Also he could bring up the Brad Johnson thing, saying you still have the throw an accurate ball, still have to find open receivers, still have to know the playbook, read defenses, etc. etc.

Seriously, the Patriots should have hired me.

My guess is that someone on the team probably did try to tell him to prep for the interview, and Tom is so arrogant he brushed them aside. And well, now he's paying the price for that. The same price he's now paying for treating McNally & Jastremski like servants (the equipment handlers).

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Re: Re:

it is more probable than not

What does this even mean?

Well, it means what it means.