National Football League

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Re:

The data guys can't calculate momentum so it doesn't exist...to them. Yes, the natural world is full of random, but there is too much unnatural input in an NFL game to put into a simple algorithm.

I don't think that the data guys have provided enough proof to support their hypothesis. Maybe its a bit of a semantics game too.

Burke "yells" at those who don't agree with him "you dumb arses can't understand the real world so you label it with a word". I always feel like Foxxy is yelling at anyone who doesn't agree with him. I guess I'm yelling back.

"... oh, and I choked under pressure. That is a given. Sad, but true." There is no significant data to support chocking, its just random events of the natural world.

I guess PM would disagree.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Just one final comment from me on the momentum topic, and that is that American football is different from just about any other sport in the world in one key area, including rugby or Australian Rules Football. That is that little break between plays called the huddle. What's the significance of the huddle other than calling a play? That is where confidence and energy are communicated in so many ways other than by words, but including words. Someone might sense that playing High School American football, or maybe not. But at the collegiate level and above it is a presence players feel. Why is that not necessarily felt in High School ball, though it might and on teams that are together as a unit they will feel it? Because not everyone in HS has the same level of commitment and energy devoted (how many players in HS are involved in a full off-season workout program? - look into that and you will see there level of devotion. It will be either hot or cold. Lackluster or full gas.) as the players at the collegiate and NFL level. In fact, HS teams (and [sigh...] some college teams) without a core group of leaders who encourage and organize a required level of devotion just won't have it. The points are, 1) in American football that sense of momentum is felt by the players at the collegiate and higher level, but maybe not at the HS level; 2) players can get energy from each other in the huddle; and 3) that feeling of momentum is a feeling you will not find in other sport.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

In other news, the Steelers have brought Mike Vick in to be their backup QB. As a result, some 15,000+ Pittsburgh fans have signed a petition to get rid of Vick because of his past involvement in the dog scandal, which was over 6 years ago. Since then, Vick has done over a years jail time, done public appearances, and has essentially turned himself around into a pretty good citizen who I'd welcome in my community. So, Stephan A. Smith responded to the Pittsburgh fan's petition. Here's the link... I happen to agree 100% with everything he says, and his obvious conviction, all the way up until his final breath in the statement. If you listen, listen to the entire thing:
http://blog.siriusxm.com/2015/08/27...k-protests-wheres-your-compassion-pittsburgh/... and then click the audio link.

FWIW, If Seattle needed a backup QB I'd be supportive of the Hawks bringing him in provided he was a good fit for the team. As for off-field baggage... there is none. Just examine the past 6 years and forget the years prior to that. I believe he would be an asset to the community. Pittsburgh fans, some of them, just don't get it.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Re:

in American football that sense of momentum is felt by the players at the collegiate and higher level, but maybe not at the HS level; 2) players can get energy from each other in the huddle; and 3) that feeling of momentum is a feeling you will not find in other sport

No 3m dont do that (especially after your posts before)... you cant believe in momentum "is felt", "energy" can be "talked up", "feeling" of something "god-like" comes up in a huddle... and then only in true Football... Or are you doing some real hidden special sarcasm. If so, well done... I stepped into the trap.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Dumb masses, get cheated here and there... and then do a totally meaningless petition that dont touch their lives a tiny bit. Oh USA what happened to your population and once great country? Is really everybody going mad? Especially if its true that Vick did ok in the past 6 years... and even if not: He is just a ball player that can heave a ball very far. No more, no less.

 

[jmdirt]

The entire momentum debate moved me away from my original point: impact RBs do make a difference. Yards per carry is a bad measuring stick for impact RBs because as Foxxy has pointed out a lot of guys can average 4-5 yards per carry. Impact backs however can break 15-50 yard runs (nearly) every game. The big runs have the obvious result of moving the ball down the field, but the other, maybe bigger, value of an impact RB is how the defense has to play. Mobile QBs have a similar effect on defenses (mobile QBs usually lead the yards per carry stat). I think that Lynch, Murray, and Bell are a ways down on the yards per carry stat (Google check me please), but they are impact backs who will chip off 3-5 yard runs, then bust a 20, then 3-5, then 15...

Are they worth the money they get? H No, but most players aren't. They are becoming devalued by the economy of the game though. I think that will change again soon.

Side note: Murray's yards per carry might be "low" last year, but he also carried the ball 100+ more times than everyone else (again Google check me).

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

As I see it, no one in Pittsburgh has to like Vick if they don't want to. What he did is unconscionable. Just deplorable. People can dislike him for it until the day he dies. However, I do agree he repaid his debt to society, and has been a model citizen since, and I do support his ability to earn a living with his skills by playing in the NFL again. That's okay by me. I am just not going to cheer for the guy, and if Steeler fans don't want to either I understand why.

I've also felt the guy was overhyped. But that's another story.

As to running backs. We've talked about that beyond beyond. The best backs are complete backs to me (I know, Barry Sanders was great, and not a "complete" back). But if I were scouting, I'd look for the Walter Payton type. Now, you're not going to find another one of him. But he was complete. Ran hard, or ran with moves. Excellent receiver. Excellent pass blocker. But even Payton, as amazing as he was, didn't make crappy teams great. It's still a team sport.

As to momentum, it's psychological to me. Concentration, and confidence, coupled with knowledge. But between the entire league, it's maybe a wash, and almost impossible to play for and control. If the difference in physical talent in the NFL is minuscule, then leaders can help lead teams out of tough games. But it's almost individual, and every team has leaders. Rare can you really point at something and see it. It's not things like stripped fumbles, or heads up play. For example, last year's NFC championship game. A lesser QB would have caved after 3+ terrible quarters, but Russell Wilson didn't. He stayed focused, learned from his mistakes, kept his concentration and confidence. This attitude was probably infections and motivating to his teammates, at least on offense that he interacts with every play, and it and brought his team back to victory. That was really the momentum. But is that really momentum? Or just great playing from leadership?

 

[jmdirt]

Re:

As I see it, no one in Pittsburgh has to like Vick if they don't want to. What he did is unconscionable. Just deplorable. People can dislike him for it until the day he dies. However, I do agree he repaid his debt to society, and has been a model citizen since, and I do support his ability to earn a living with his skills by playing in the NFL again. That's okay by me. I am just not going to cheer for the guy, and if Steeler fans don't want to either I understand why.

I've also felt the guy was overhyped. But that's another story.

As to running backs. We've talked about that beyond beyond. The best backs are complete backs to me (I know, Barry Sanders was great, and not a "complete" back). But if I were scouting, I'd look for the Walter Payton type. Now, you're not going to find another one of him. But he was complete. Ran hard, or ran with moves. Excellent receiver. Excellent pass blocker. But even Payton, as amazing as he was, didn't make crappy teams great. It's still a team sport.

As to momentum, it's psychological to me. Concentration, and confidence, coupled with knowledge. But between the entire league, it's maybe a wash, and almost impossible to play for and control. If the difference in physical talent in the NFL is minuscule, then leaders can help lead teams out of tough games. But it's almost individual, and every team has leaders. Rare can you really point at something and see it. It's not things like stripped fumbles, or heads up play. For example, last year's NFC championship game. A lesser QB would have caved after 3+ terrible quarters, but Russell Wilson didn't. He stayed focused, learned from his mistakes, kept his concentration and confidence. This attitude was probably infections and motivating to his teammates, at least on offense that he interacts with every play, and it and brought his team back to victory. That was really the momentum. But is that really momentum? Or just great playing from leadership?

Agree.
Agree because the media over-hypes most standout college players.
Agree, it takes about 30 guys being "on" to make a great team. That's not discounting the bench or PS.
Agree.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Yeah I think SA Smith is good with that position on Vick. He just believes, as do I, the petition to remove him is deplorable because Vick deserves a 2nd chance based on what he's done the last 6 years. Even the Humane Society has thanked him for his recent contributions. Still, people have a right to think any way they want. Do they have the right to petition? Sure. They might come under fire for it.

But is that really momentum? Or just great playing from leadership?

It takes the latter to create the sense you have the opponent on their heels.
@Foxxy... maybe its a language / translation thing. But I could call MO a feeling, a sense, confidence, knowing how to attack and win an assignment, players being on the same page. On that last factor, being on same page, I don't know if you had a chance to watch any of the Pats/Brady this week, but he had some new (not all young) players on the team (like ex-Colt and veteran Reggie Wayne). Brady missed badly on some of those targets likely because the WR was not on the same page as Brady.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

I have never heard of this one: a head coach who makes all of his QBs on the roster captains.
Okay, it is just preseason. And it is Rex. Yes, Rex Ryan made all 4 of his QBs captains for the Steelers game.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000517642/article/rex-ryan-makes-all-four-bills-qbs-captains
Has that ever happened? I don't recall anything like that. I guess that is one way of saying they are all equals in the competition for the starting job. But are the reps in practice consistent with that? Rex makes it interesting that's for sure.

 

[Eagle]

Sam Bradford 11-11 in the first quarter vs Green Bay, 3 TD's, 25-0 with 2 mins left in the first. No Rodgers for Packers and Randall Cobb out with shoulder injury

 

[Eagle]

NaVorro Bowman with 2 sacks tonight, had one last week

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

but the other, maybe bigger, value of an impact RB is how the defense has to play

I agree on that. Imagine.

All those greats I named had an impact on how the D played. Take the CHI-SB for example (where Payton rushed for a measly 61 yards on 22 carries, 2.8 Y/R); McMahon said afterwards NEs game plan was to take Walter out (great plan, right? ). And what happens if you concentrate on one area? It opens others. In this case the passing game (no I am not talking about more effiecient play action, but overall) clicked on all cyclinders. The SB record for Y/A still stands at a gaudy 12.8.
Or take Adrian Peterson. Opponents stacked the box each game (but he still run for 2.000+ yards), so it opened up other areas.

But, but, but... this impact can not be seen on the winning Pct (and thats what counts in the end). MIN was still crap, BUF was (w/OJ), OAK/LA with Bo was, CHI with Walter was every other season than 1985 (IOW: every time when their QB went down, which was basically every other year), and so on...

Victory comes trou the air (repectively air combat by a great pass D). Some say true since Unitas, I´d go further back and say true since the early 1940s when Luckman hit the scence...
I bet house and all, that Emmitt Smith (the lone great RB that won more than one SB, actually more than all other greats combined*) would have won zero SBs if Aikman & Irvin wasnt there (see his "impact" in ARZ), in combination with that all time great OL...

* I dont count TDavis as great, since every other back behind that DEN OL shone (inclusive converted FB, undrafted btw, Mike Anderson)...

So the heck with who the back for PHI, DAL, etc is... either their OL & QBs deliver or not. Thats what counts.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Re:

The entire momentum debate moved me away from my original point: impact RBs do make a difference. Yards per carry is a bad measuring stick for impact RBs because as Foxxy has pointed out a lot of guys can average 4-5 yards per carry. Impact backs however can break 15-50 yard runs (nearly) every game. The big runs have the obvious result of moving the ball down the field, but the other, maybe bigger, value of an impact RB is how the defense has to play. Mobile QBs have a similar effect on defenses (mobile QBs usually lead the yards per carry stat). I think that Lynch, Murray, and Bell are a ways down on the yards per carry stat (Google check me please), but they are impact backs who will chip off 3-5 yard runs, then bust a 20, then 3-5, then 15...

Are they worth the money they get? H No, but most players aren't. They are becoming devalued by the economy of the game though. I think that will change again soon.

I too agree with all of that. Anytime defenses know they can load up to stop offenses that are one-dimensional (either run or pass) it makes it easier for the defense. Offenses have to be able to do both to win. Have to be able to pass to win. Have to be able to run to win.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

One team unable to do anything offensively right now against starting defenses is Seattle. They had one 14-play drive in quarter 3 vs Chargers subs. Otherwise it was zilch. And that after certain Seattle player saying they had best week of practice EVER. RLY??? While RT Gilliam handles edge rushers better he's easily overpowered. Center Nowak is more physical but mental part is not there, fails to recognize blitzes, and leaves his gap to help allowing safety blitz right up middle messing up whole pass play. Can't pass effectively and can't run effectively. Waaaay too many 3 and outs. And despite what certain players say, TE Graham can't block. And Wilson not passing very well. Offense is a mess, or they are really holding back... I say mostly the former. Also say "Playoffs... don't talk about playoffs. Just try to win a game." Next up... Raiders on Thursday.

Big cuts coming this week. Must get roster down to 75 by Tuesday, then to 53.by Saturday night.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Re: Re:

The entire momentum debate moved me away from my original point: impact RBs do make a difference. Yards per carry is a bad measuring stick for impact RBs because as Foxxy has pointed out a lot of guys can average 4-5 yards per carry. Impact backs however can break 15-50 yard runs (nearly) every game. The big runs have the obvious result of moving the ball down the field, but the other, maybe bigger, value of an impact RB is how the defense has to play. Mobile QBs have a similar effect on defenses (mobile QBs usually lead the yards per carry stat). I think that Lynch, Murray, and Bell are a ways down on the yards per carry stat (Google check me please), but they are impact backs who will chip off 3-5 yard runs, then bust a 20, then 3-5, then 15...

Are they worth the money they get? H No, but most players aren't. They are becoming devalued by the economy of the game though. I think that will change again soon.

I too agree with all of that. Anytime defenses know they can load up to stop offenses that are one-dimensional (either run or pass) it makes it easier for the defense. Offenses have to be able to do both to win. Have to be able to pass to win. Have to be able to run to win.

Chicken/Egg I´d guess.
Those who pass good win (even sometimes w/o a running game: see IND w/the RS GOAT, AZ w/Warner, and some more), and as nice side effect posses a good running game too (exceptions, see just last sentence in parentheses).
In the end you can pass trou-out the game and still win. See the countless links I gave when such games happened in the NFL, or look at 3rd and long (90% passes): No drop off in pass effieciency, but a stark jump in run efficiency coz the D concentrates 100% on the pass (and still cant stop it)... Or look at comebacks: The team behind knows it, the opponent knows it (a full load of passes, sometimes the draw to keep the D honest ), and still 20% of 4th quarter comebacks...
As my old saying goes: You can run until you or your opponent drops, but victory comes trou the air.

 

[The Hitch]

In other news, the Steelers have brought Mike Vick in to be their backup QB. As a result, some 15,000+ Pittsburgh fans have signed a petition to get rid of Vick because of his past involvement in the dog scandal, which was over 6 years ago. Since then, Vick has done over a years jail time, done public appearances, and has essentially turned himself around into a pretty good citizen who I'd welcome in my community. So, Stephan A. Smith responded to the Pittsburgh fan's petition. Here's the link... I happen to agree 100% with everything he says, and his obvious conviction, all the way up until his final breath in the statement. If you listen, listen to the entire thing:
http://blog.siriusxm.com/2015/08/27...k-protests-wheres-your-compassion-pittsburgh/... and then click the audio link.

FWIW, If Seattle needed a backup QB I'd be supportive of the Hawks bringing him in provided he was a good fit for the team. As for off-field baggage... there is none. Just examine the past 6 years and forget the years prior to that. I believe he would be an asset to the community. Pittsburgh fans, some of them, just don't get it.

Except where he says "I think some people love animals more than people". Which is a cheap and pathetic below the belt point to try to make.

Vick tortured and killed many animals.

Ray Rice threw one punch. Aldon Smith put other people's lives in danger but didn't actually hurt anyone etc.

Vick's behaviour is far more comparable to Aaron Hernandez than it is to any of the guys actually still in the NFL.

 

[Amsterhammer]

I really hate my team with a passion sometimes, like when they go 3-0 in preseason, which then leads to a slight increase in hopes and expectations, even though you know in your bones that once the proper season starts it will be the same horror show again with those hopes and expectations getting shot to hell.

Sigh.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Re:

I really hate my team with a passion sometimes, like when they go 3-0 in preseason, which then leads to a slight increase in hopes and expectations, even though you know in your bones that once the proper season starts it will be the same horror show again with those hopes and expectations getting shot to hell.

There's always hope. But until Washington builds a line to protect the QB it will be a hard road. Seattle was in death throws in 2009, 2010 came with new GM & HC and 120 or so roster moves and still an awful season, and by 2014 win SB. Hopefully Washington continues to improve.

 

[jmdirt]

There is a lot of talk about the 'importance' of the preseason. Some critics are going as far as to say get rid of it. One talking head suggested making it a "rookie" league. The NFL isn't going to get rid of it because they would lose money. I think that the reason for more injuries in the preseason is due to less "football" days in practice leading up to the preseason. Guys are going from low impact to high impact in too short a time, and that will lead to more injuries.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Re:

There is a lot of talk about the 'importance' of the preseason. Some critics are going as far as to say get rid of it. One talking head suggested making it a "rookie" league. The NFL isn't going to get rid of it because they would lose money. I think that the reason for more injuries in the preseason is due to less "football" days in practice leading up to the preseason. Guys are going from low impact to high impact in too short a time, and that will lead to more injuries.

Agree on that. Not enough hitting in practices and as result players are not in football shape.

Here's a little tidbit on MSN about last weeks preseason games:
http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/10-takeaways-from-week-3-of-the-nfl-preseason/ar-AAdLS9D
I watched some but not all of the Bills game and was impressed with Taylor, as was the author. To me the interesting part was about the Bills QB performances.

Buffalo Bills quarterback competition takes odd turn

Did anyone expect Buffalo’s quartet of quarterbacks to complete 30-of-33 passes for nearly 400 yards and three scores against the Pittsburgh Steelers? What the likes of EJ Manuel, Matt Cassel and Tyrod Taylor did Saturday afternoon was nothing short of amazing.

The leader in the clubhouse at this point has to be Taylor, who has been downright awesome during the summer. Coming off a performance against Pittsburgh that saw him complete 12-of-13 passes for 122 yards with a rushing touchdown, Taylor has been among the best quarterbacks in the NFL during the preseason. Through three games, the former Virginia Tech standout has completed a ridiculous 77 percent of his passes while displaying tremendous accuracy and escapability. Though, it was Manuel who impressed the most in his first start of the preseason. He led the Bills to touchdowns in four of his five drives, completing 7-of-8 passes for 170 yards and two scores in the process. Overall this preseason, Manuel is completing 67 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and zero picks.

In a sign of just how good Buffalo’s quarterbacks performed against Pittsburgh, Cassel was the only member of the quartet not to throw a touchdown, and he still completed 6-of-7 passes. Heck, even Matt Simms completed all five of his passes for 65 yards and a score.

There’s little reason to believe that this is a sign of things to come for the regular season. However, what we saw Saturday isn’t exactly what the Bills need at quarterback. All they are looking for is above-average quarterback play. If the team gets that, it could very well earn its first playoff appearance since 1999.

edit: finally fixed stinking link!

 

[Amsterhammer]

I just clicked on a strange name last post, and got "you are not authorized to view this forum" Huh?

 

[Irondan]

I moved some posts.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

We discussed before the injury situation. It was actually Bill Belicheck who fought against the current "no contact" practices rules signed into the new CBA. He seemed to be in the minority at the time, but once again, he's been proven to be as right as can be.

I'm going to ramble about stuff around the league. Read at your own peril.

RGIII has been benched, and Kirk Cousins named the starter for the Season for Washington. I've liked Kirk all along, and listed why several times. But I like him as a QB to develop over the next year. Will that happen this season, on this team? He does seem to have the ability to pull the trigger, and a strong arm, which might help on this team with a sketchy OL. He's also the anti-RG3 in that he seems fairly quiet and reserved. Mike Shanahan seems to support it and says Cousins will be a top-10 NFL quarterback.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000518810/article/mike-shanahan-cousins-will-be-top-10-quarterback

Jeff Darlington says now is the time for the Skins to cut Griffin. It's an interesting article, lays it all out very well, and makes some sense. But my goodness, how costly of a past.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000518752/article/robert-griffin-iii-saga-why-cutting-qb-makes-sense-for-redskins

Speaking of the Bills, Tyrod Taylor has indeed been named the starter. The Bills are going to be interesting. I don't think they will continue to output this much firepower on offense, and their sometimes flat defense will improve under Rex. In a surprise, they released running back Fred Jackson.

Since it's preseason, it's really hard to tell, but the Jaguars defense, and Blake Bortles look like they might finally be improving.

And in Deflategate, apparently Tom Brady was willing to accept a 1 game suspension for obstructing the investigation. But the league wouldn't compromise, believing they have the CBA rules on their side (ie, Goodell is dictator if he wants). Friday is the judge's ruling. I still think he may uphold all four games, and issue a scathing and fully embarrassing ruling against the NFL in the process.

I watched some more of Jimmy Garappolo and he looks both very capable, and also like he needs a lot of work, depending on the play.

The Raiders seem to have improved on defense and a little on offense. Kalil Mack was an unstoppable manchild against Arizona. But Derek Carr was erratic. Some really nice throws, and a few bad decisions, including a horrible pick-6. Trent Richardson was equally hot/cold, and today the team released him. Interestingly enough, he was drafted third that year, right after RG3. Both the Skins and Browns traded up to get them. We know about RG3, but the Browns traded up with Minnesota, who took Matt Kalil, who has started every game since for them. Then again, the Browns dumped Richardson to the Colts to get Johnny Manziel. Was that a good deal?

Arizona didn't look so great until a 4th quarter with back-up players mostly. Then again, it's the pre-season. Seattle has also looked flat in what I saw. The Cowboys highlights seem like they played key starters only to get them in shape, the games meaningless.

I watched some of the Eagles, and I'm not sure what to think. When they are in sync, they look very well organized. The throws from Bradford have been crisp, though I haven't seen any deep lasers from him, but they run a quick offense with quick reads, and he may do very well in this. As I've said before, I actually like the guy and never heard a single bad word about him. Plus I feel bad for all the injuries he's had. I still think Chip Kelly is a huckster as much as anything, but I hope Sam stays well and plays well.

The Broncos are 3-0, but Manning hasn't played very well in Gary Kubiak's new system. I think he'll do okay, but I have little faith in Kubiak, and even less in Wade Phillips. They have a lot of talent though, and still should content.

In that same division, Alex Smith must be jumping for joy with receivers to now throw to, and he is. They are 3-0 and look solid. For preseason anyway.

Nick Foles finally looked okay in a game for the 0-3 Rams, who have little offense to speak of. They need like two more offensive lineman, and a physical receiver. While their D is stacked, that can only go so far.

If you want to follow the cuts, here they are on the NFL website:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000518343/article/nfl-roster-cuts-tracker

As the last pre-season game is almost meaningless, I'll start making predictions soon.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Wow! What a smorgasbord. Great post Alpe. I can say I only watched the portion of BUF with Tyrod, a tiny bit of the WAS game with Griffin, and most of SEA. Already posted about Tyrod positives (not the clinic type). Those were pretty good reads about the RG3 situation. Since the HC has now named Cousins as the starter for the season, the only way I can see that it works for RG3 to stay in WAS is if he can sincerely adopt the backup role with good attitude and not be disruptive. But they will not pay him the same to be that guy. They can't trade him because no team will assume the financial burden, or give up much in the way of draft picks. They can't recover all those picks they gave the Rams. I'm by far no expert on these matters, but seems the only other option is for WAS to just cut their losses and cut him.

A bit more insight on SEA... Normally HC Pete Carroll is a very positive guy in front of the media. So for him to say they are frustrated with the offensive struggles kind of says something. http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/p...dium=newsletter&utm_campaign=seattle-seahawks
It might only mean he can't possibly deny it, but is that all there is to it? I will say, after last weeks poor offensive outing following what Wilson said was the best week of practice ever, that sometimes.... sometimes teams can have a great practice week and totally flop on game day, or on the flip side, have a horrible week of practice and play great on game day.

Here's a good read on why the quality of NFL O-Line play is getting worse. To me, that translates a little bit to the quality of NFL games in general, but I'm a person who enjoys watching run play execution more that pass play execution.
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer...e-quality-of-o-line-play-in-the-nfl-is-putrid