National Football League

[Semper Fidelis]

Re: Re:

I have long been a supporter of having all NFL facilities closed....

I completely disagree with you, and feel the exact opposite, that domes should be banned. This isn't basketball, it's football. As to the players, the weather is the same for everyone. So it's not like one team is freezing while the other is warm. Modern technology also makes the field playable with heaters underneath, plus sophisticated drainage systems for storms. Benches are heated, and there are jet engine heaters on the sidelines as well. Some players like QB's also use chemical hand warmers in pouches. Rarely, rarely do players complain about the weather in football. Many like the challenge of playing in it, many even play in short sleeves, and it also adds to football lore. If a team has a total passing attack in September, but by January they can't play because they can't run the ball, that too can be remedied by planning and coaching.

This isn't the 1960s, with the Ice Bowl and unheated Lambeau frozen over into a sheet of ice, nor Budd Grant of the Vikings insisting there be no heaters on his sidelines, because he wants his players to play harder on the field to keep warm. Also, even the most open stadiums are not like they used to be, like the old Met where the Vikings played, or Cleveland's old stadium, that was open on one end, welcoming the wind. There's also the issue of global warming. Yes, that's only a small amount, but that's also the direction the world is headed.

I agree with you alpe that football should be played outside in the elements. For me that makes it more interesting and it is a better atmosphere. I do like the superdome but honestly that is for sentimental reasons and growing up I spent a great deal of time there on Sundays. I remember the first time I walked into and on the artificial turf @ the old Sullivan Stadium in Foxboro. It was June of 1987 and the turf smelt like old wet socks - it was still wet from the snow during the winter and spring. I also thought what a waste to have astroturf on an open field.

With respect to the bolded. While reading your post I was tempted to make a joke about global warming and made it to the end of your post and giggled because you went there. But honestly you are correct. Temps have changed and open stadiums is the way to go.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I hated astroturf as well, though the newer field turf is better, less injuries. Though some of the fields don't look very green or grass like, they tend to have a silver like sheen to them. I'd still like to see football played on grass.

Absolutely zero surprise here. Peyton Manning has been named the starter for the Broncos in the divisional round. I don't know how we'll he's going to play in the cold, or how strong his arm is, but he definitely reads the field better than Osweiller (anyone, really), and is their best chance to go all the way. Presuming he's completely healthy at least. And wouldn't that be amazing if he did manage to win the Superbowl? Especially if they played two cold, snowy games against Pittsburgh and New England, and then took on Carolina (or Seattle!) and won the SB? Not likely, but it would make a great story.

Andy Dalton has apparently been practicing, but the Bengals have given no hint as to who is starting against the Steelers, he, or McCarron. If his thumb feels okay, and he can throw the ball at all close to normal, I'd think the Bengals have to go with him. But he really has to be on for them to beat the Steelers, and to me the odds of that remain slim. Though I also expect Cincy to run the ball repeatedly with Hill and Bernard a 1-2 tandem, and Cincy will score, even with McCarron. But I still like Pittsburgh. I can't see Cincy stopping their passing attack. They'd have to double up both Brown and Miller, and get to Big Ben. Chance of rain in this game.

Is anyone taking Green Bay over Washington? I'm not. The Packers are one step from rising the season, healing Jordy Nelson, and seeking OL, LB, DL and receiver help for next year.

Patting myself on the back here (again) about Kirk Cousins. 24 TD's to 3 ints. in his last 10 games, and that includes a decent game at Carolina, where their defense let them down. Even Amsterhammer didn't have the same faith in him that I did.

Where do I get a job like Jim Tomsula? Fired, and will still collect $14m in salary. Remember, this guy was a defensive line coach. I looked it up, those guys make about $350k a year. Not a bad career, if you can get it, right.

Finally, pretend you're Jerry Jones, and you fully expect Romo back next year, and to play maybe a couple more after that, injuries pending, before hanging the cleats up. This off season you need a real QB, one you believe can play if thrust into it, but needs to develop and young enough. You also want someone who you can market, and make sure you get the attention you crave (remember, you're Jerry Jones) Do you go for RG3? Or Johnny Manziel? Or someone else?

 

[Semper Fidelis]

Thinking about the Washington vs Green Bay game. I like the Redskins for the win. They are playing well and I like it when they are good especially considering my hate of Dallas, and the Giants.

Anyone remember Vince Young? He was the rookie of the year in 2006 and went to the pro bowl, also went to the pro bowl in 2009. I think jeff fisher ruined Vince on purpose ,,,,,, considering he was forced to draft him with the 3rd overall pick. Just an opinion. It just looked weird that fisher never really used him correctly or tried to prepare the offense for him. The reason I bring that up is because I see or have seen the same thing happen to RG3. Shannahan the rat did not want him and did not know how to use him. Then basically tried to end his career by putting him back out on the field injured. Along come the Mensa gruden and he does even more damage. I get that Cousins fits Gruden better but the way they messed with RG3 is shameful. Why not just trade him and get something instead trying to mess with the guys head by making him play scout team tightend. Really not a good way to treat someone with that talent.

 

[jmdirt]

Re:

I hated astroturf as well, though the newer field turf is better, less injuries. Though some of the fields don't look very green or grass like, they tend to have a silver like sheen to them. I'd still like to see football played on grass.
Finally, pretend you're Jerry Jones, and you fully expect Romo back next year, and to play maybe a couple more after that, injuries pending, before hanging the cleats up. This off season you need a real QB, one you believe can play if thrust into it, but needs to develop and young enough. You also want someone who you can market, and make sure you get the attention you crave (remember, you're Jerry Jones) Do you go for RG3? Or Johnny Manziel? Or someone else?

I just have this gut feeling (like before you puke) that JJ is going to bring Johnny Partyball in. I think that RG3 would be a good move for them though. Moore is a great guy, and a football mastermind, but he's not a future NFL superstar. I hope that he continues to find good back up gigs though.

 

[jmdirt]

Re: Re:

I have long been a supporter of having all NFL facilities closed....

I completely disagree with you, and feel the exact opposite, that domes should be banned. This isn't basketball, it's football. As to the players, the weather is the same for everyone. So it's not like one team is freezing while the other is warm. Modern technology also makes the field playable with heaters underneath, plus sophisticated drainage systems for storms. Benches are heated, and there are jet engine heaters on the sidelines as well. Some players like QB's also use chemical hand warmers in pouches. Rarely, rarely do players complain about the weather in football. Many like the challenge of playing in it, many even play in short sleeves, and it also adds to football lore. If a team has a total passing attack in September, but by January they can't play because they can't run the ball, that too can be remedied by planning and coaching.

This isn't the 1960s, with the Ice Bowl and unheated Lambeau frozen over into a sheet of ice, nor Budd Grant of the Vikings insisting there be no heaters on his sidelines, because he wants his players to play harder on the field to keep warm. Also, even the most open stadiums are not like they used to be, like the old Met where the Vikings played, or Cleveland's old stadium, that was open on one end, welcoming the wind. There's also the issue of global warming. Yes, that's only a small amount, but that's also the direction the world is headed.

 

[BullsFan22]

I may be wrong, but this years playoffs could be the most open in recent memory. There are teams that are peaking at the right time: Seahawks, Steelers, Chiefs, perhaps even the Redskins. You have usual suspects like Patriots, Broncos and Packers, upstarts and best team in the league in the Panthers, a very good Cardinals team, etc. The weakest team is probably the Texans, but the Packers haven't played that well in the 2nd half of the season, so they may be one and done against. The Vikings have surprised as well this season, but Seahawks will likely win that match up. Too many good teams and not much between a lot of them to choose.

 

[Amsterhammer]

Just in - Peyton starts.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Re:

Yesterday's news, I'm afraid.

Absolutely zero surprise here. Peyton Manning has been named the starter for the Broncos in the divisional round.

 

[Amsterhammer]

Re: Re:

Yesterday's news, I'm afraid.

Absolutely zero surprise here. Peyton Manning has been named the starter for the Broncos in the divisional round.

The bastards! They sold it to me as 'fresh news'.

 

[leftover pie]

Re: Re:

I just have this gut feeling (like before you puke) that JJ is going to bring Johnny Partyball in. .

I could see the Cowboys doing this and I think it would be a comprehensive disaster.


And I'd love to see it happen.

 

[movingtarget]

I may be wrong, but this years playoffs could be the most open in recent memory. There are teams that are peaking at the right time: Seahawks, Steelers, Chiefs, perhaps even the Redskins. You have usual suspects like Patriots, Broncos and Packers, upstarts and best team in the league in the Panthers, a very good Cardinals team, etc. The weakest team is probably the Texans, but the Packers haven't played that well in the 2nd half of the season, so they may be one and done against. The Vikings have surprised as well this season, but Seahawks will likely win that match up. Too many good teams and not much between a lot of them to choose.

I agree as do many NFL commentators. Panthers and Cardinals deserve to be favorites but still beatable. I tend to think only the Chiefs or the Seahawks could be spoilers to the former. Have not seen anything of the Redskins to form an opinion on them. I don't like the Patriots this year or the Packers, Broncos, Vikings or Steelers. I just can't see those teams winning the Superbowl.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

I hated astroturf as well, though the newer field turf is better, less injuries. Though some of the fields don't look very green or grass like, they tend to have a silver like sheen to them. I'd still like to see football played on grass.

Absolutely zero surprise here. Peyton Manning has been named the starter for the Broncos in the divisional round. I don't know how we'll he's going to play in the cold, or how strong his arm is, but he definitely reads the field better than Osweiller (anyone, really), and is their best chance to go all the way. Presuming he's completely healthy at least. And wouldn't that be amazing if he did manage to win the Superbowl? Especially if they played two cold, snowy games against Pittsburgh and New England, and then took on Carolina (or Seattle!) and won the SB? Not likely, but it would make a great story.

Andy Dalton has apparently been practicing, but the Bengals have given no hint as to who is starting against the Steelers, he, or McCarron. If his thumb feels okay, and he can throw the ball at all close to normal, I'd think the Bengals have to go with him. But he really has to be on for them to beat the Steelers, and to me the odds of that remain slim. Though I also expect Cincy to run the ball repeatedly with Hill and Bernard a 1-2 tandem, and Cincy will score, even with McCarron. But I still like Pittsburgh. I can't see Cincy stopping their passing attack. They'd have to double up both Brown and Miller, and get to Big Ben. Chance of rain in this game.

Is anyone taking Green Bay over Washington? I'm not. The Packers are one step from rising the season, healing Jordy Nelson, and seeking OL, LB, DL and receiver help for next year.

Patting myself on the back here (again) about Kirk Cousins. 24 TD's to 3 ints. in his last 10 games, and that includes a decent game at Carolina, where their defense let them down. Even Amsterhammer didn't have the same faith in him that I did.

Where do I get a job like Jim Tomsula? Fired, and will still collect $14m in salary. Remember, this guy was a defensive line coach. I looked it up, those guys make about $350k a year. Not a bad career, if you can get it, right.

Finally, pretend you're Jerry Jones, and you fully expect Romo back next year, and to play maybe a couple more after that, injuries pending, before hanging the cleats up. This off season you need a real QB, one you believe can play if thrust into it, but needs to develop and young enough. You also want someone who you can market, and make sure you get the attention you crave (remember, you're Jerry Jones) Do you go for RG3? Or Johnny Manziel? Or someone else?

It seems that Tomsula is already getting job offers. Many 49ers fans are praying that Chip Kelly won't get the coaching job. Some sort of rumour about Manziel going to the 49ers. Hard to believe. Gabbert will stay but Kaep still has question marks but the good money says he will go. Most people expect the 49ers to draft a QB but it sounds like the Cowboys and Cleveland and maybe others ahead of them will chase Goff and Cleveland also want Busa. 49ers have 7th pick so they might try for Lynch or someone else. Sounds like the 49ers are also chasing a new OC which means Geep Chryst will be out thank God. As for the fields I think real grass is best.

 

[Merckx index]

Writer Tim Kawakami, I think it was, points out that Kaep poses a real problem for the 49ers in their search for a new HC. They have to either cut him by April 1, or pay him about $12 million. Or renegotiate, and since the contract he originally signed was very team-friendly, there appears to be very little chance Kaep will accept a pay cut.

This is a problem, because an incoming HC might want to keep Kaep at least long enough to see what he can do. Chip Kelly certainly would; as I pointed out before, other than Mariota and possibly Newton, Kaep would appear to be the best possible candidate to run Kelly's system. Hue Jackson, another talked about former HC in the mix, supposedly was also interested in Kaep back in 2011, and would have drafted him if Harbaugh hadn't beaten him to it. Given that Gabbert is not their QB of the future, and that at one point Kaep was the hottest thing in the NFL, you'd think any HC would want some time to see if he can rehabilitate him. I don't think 7th pick in a year when there aren't a lot of great QBs is something to hang your hopes on.

If an NFL team actually does move to Vegas, Manziel would be the perfect fit at QB. No longer would the coach have to worry about Manziel missing team meetings while secretly partying out of town. Johnny could secretly party in town, and make it back to the meeting on time. Maybe Johnny F. should have a little talk with Broadway Joe Namath, who was quite the party boy back then, but still got it done on the field.

Seriously, though, I'd take RGIII ahead of Manziel. Doesn't have the off-field problems, and he was really good for one year. Seems to me that RG's deficiencies are things that can be corrected with learning.

Mixed feelings about stadiums. I don't think football should be played in standard, temperature-controlled conditions. It's an outdoor game, and fluctuating weather conditions add to the charm. To a point. The problem IMO is a schedule that puts the most important games of the year in the middle of the winter. Sometimes it really is too cold to play.

You can argue that it's better for requiring different qualities, that the best team in warm, dry, windless weather might not be the best in cold, rain or wind. I could accept that if any weather condition were about as likely as any other, but the way it works out is that they play the entire season mostly in one range of weather conditions, then in the postseason it's very different. Plus there is a tremendous element of chance, because some teams play in warm weather cities, while others don't. I think there's enough element of chance in the game as there is, without adding to it.

You'll notice that the NFL doesn't take many chances with weather with the SB, though they did play that game in NJ a couple of years ago, and lucked out, to tell the truth. Most SBs are played in cities where the conditions are more or less standard, moderate to warm temperatures, little chance of rain. Football is the only major American pro sport where the championship is not played in the home venues of the competing teams. Why is that? Because it's recognized that the game isn't as much fun either to play or to watch in harsh weather conditions. The only reason such weather is tolerated in the postseason leading up to the SB is because fans would revolt at having these games on neutral sites, where they couldn't watch their home team. The idea that it's somehow good if the wind chill is - 20 is pure BS rationalization. The games are played under those conditions only because there's no real alternative, except a dome.

 

[movingtarget]

Writer Tim Kawakami, I think it was, points out that Kaep poses a real problem for the 49ers in their search for a new HC. They have to either cut him by April 1, or pay him about $12 million. Or renegotiate, and since the contract he originally signed was very team-friendly, there appears to be very little chance Kaep will accept a pay cut.

This is a problem, because an incoming HC might want to keep Kaep at least long enough to see what he can do. Chip Kelly certainly would; as I pointed out before, other than Mariota and possibly Newton, Kaep would appear to be the best possible candidate to run Kelly's system. Hue Jackson, another talked about former HC in the mix, supposedly was also interested in Kaep back in 2011, and would have drafted him if Harbaugh hadn't beaten him to it. Given that Gabbert is not their QB of the future, and that at one point Kaep was the hottest thing in the NFL, you'd think any HC would want some time to see if he can rehabilitate him. I don't think 7th pick in a year when there aren't a lot of great QBs is something to hang your hopes on.

If an NFL team actually does move to Vegas, Manziel would be the perfect fit at QB. No longer would the coach have to worry about Manziel missing team meetings while secretly partying out of town. Johnny could secretly party in town, and make it back to the meeting on time. Maybe Johnny F. should have a little talk with Broadway Joe Namath, who was quite the party boy back then, but still got it done on the field.

Seriously, though, I'd take RGIII ahead of Manziel. Doesn't have the off-field problems, and he was really good for one year. Seems to me that RG's deficiencies are things that can be corrected with learning.

Mixed feelings about stadiums. I don't think football should be played in standard, temperature-controlled conditions. It's an outdoor game, and fluctuating weather conditions add to the charm. To a point. The problem IMO is a schedule that puts the most important games of the year in the middle of the winter. Sometimes it really is too cold to play.

You can argue that it's better for requiring different qualities, that the best team in warm, dry, windless weather might not be the best in cold, rain or wind. I could accept that if any weather condition were about as likely as any other, but the way it works out is that they play the entire season mostly in one range of weather conditions, then in the postseason it's very different. Plus there is a tremendous element of chance, because some teams play in warm weather cities, while others don't. I think there's enough element of chance in the game as there is, without adding to it.

You'll notice that the NFL doesn't take many chances with weather with the SB, though they did play that game in NJ a couple of years ago, and lucked out, to tell the truth. Most SBs are played in cities where the conditions are more or less standard, moderate to warm temperatures, little chance of rain. Football is the only major American pro sport where the championship is not played in the home venues of the competing teams. Why is that? Because it's recognized that the game isn't as much fun either to play or to watch in harsh weather conditions. The only reason such weather is tolerated in the postseason leading up to the SB is because fans would revolt at having these games on neutral sites, where they couldn't watch their home team. The idea that it's somehow good if the wind chill is - 20 is pure BS rationalization. The games are played under those conditions only because there's no real alternative, except a dome.

You are right the Kaep problem is a headache for the 49ers. Plus he has had three recent surgeries, one on his non throwing shoulder, plus a knee clean out and now thumb ligaments all in the past few months. Not career threatening but still. As for bad weather I think -20 is conditions worthy of postponing in any sport, of course the conditions are not uncommon in Green Bay and a few other venues but if you factor in wind chill as well that is pretty extreme. Especially for the non active players and staff on the sideline and the officials. Amazed that fans turn out in such conditions.

As for drafting a QB I think the 49ers are counting on some of the teams above them not taking a QB as first pick which is possible but it is still hard to see them getting Lynch and they won't get Goff. They are the two prominent ones even though Lynch's last game was supposed to have been mediocre. The other option is a proven QB but I don't know who is available that is if they think the Gabbert/Kaep year is not worth repeating. Gabbert is actually quite similar to Kaep and has been his understudy now for a few years. They both run well with the ball but the 49ers O Line this year was a disaster so they were not getting the time or the protection they should have had. If the 49ers don't opt for a QB in the draft they will certainly go for the O Line and a quality wide receiver.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

In news from Tampa, apparently GM Jason Licht gave Lovie Smith a call saying that the owners wanted to schedule a meeting with him for the next day, and that the meeting wouldn't go good. Smith asked for more details, and Licht said they were going to fire him. Puzzled by such a direct comment, Smith asked for clarity, and Licht either didn't have any, or wouldn't say. So Smith asked Licht to speak to the owners by phone. He was denied. He tried contacting the owners office directly. He was denied again. Smith then went over to his own coaches' office, and quietly cleaned his possessions, out and left the facility.

Say what you will about his coaching, this is a really crappy way to treat someone. I quoted before someone who said he was nice guy, but not a great coach. Well, the truth is in the pudding, really. He did take a Bears team, with Rex Grossman to the Super Bowl, and almost won it. After last year's dismal TB season, he lead them to 6 wins with a rookie coach, and they were playing up it seemed. Remember, this is the same Tampa team that Tony Dungee had stacked with talent, but the owners fired him, then traded away their future to get Jon Gruden to coach the team.

Russell Wilson made an interesting comment on this coming deep freeze game, that being he has some of the largest hands of any QB in the NFL, and it gives him a great grip on the ball. He won't wear gloves on either hand. Does this matter? Well, Teddy Bridgwater was once knocked for having small hands entering the draft. As to the cold, Wilson's comment was "You get used to the cold. It shouldn't be a big deal at all."

And as everyone predicted, Chip Kelly is interviewing with SF. I think with his ego, Trent Baakle's ego, and Jed York, they're a perfect match. Smartest guys in the room. Similar to the Enron board of directors. We could see a re-run of Harbaugh, but without the talent, or wins.

The future of the NFL will enter college next year. John "Junior" Krahn. 7'0 and 440 lbs. Word is his footwork needs help, and his conditioning. That isn't such a need though for a high school running back in Hawaii named David Fangupo, who has surprising speed to go with his power. Power that comes from weighing 350 lbs, which has made him virtually unstoppable at the HS level. He plays for Hawaii next season.

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/12/this-350lb-high-school-running-back-is-an-absolute-wrecking-ball

Crazy computer mathematics Super Bowl prediction coming up soon!

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Now, for something quite different. Chicago data scientist (and neuroscientist) Nasir Bhanpuri has come up with a mathematical calculation that determines the teams most likely to face off in the Super Bowl. He crunched massive amounts of data. So accurate was Bhanpuri's math the last two seasons, his formula was correct in predicting the last two Super Bowls, both teams! His call for this year?

The Bengals will defeat the Cardinals.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000619376/article/mathematical-model-predicts-bengalscardinals-in-super-bowl-50

 

[The Hitch]

Seattle reminds me of SF 2 years ago.

Superbowl runners up having to settle for a wildcard spot but nonetheless containing very playoff experienced team and running qb.

They have to go play in extreme temperatures in the midwest where they are nonetheless favoured.
If they win they have to go to Carolina.
Afterwhich (likely) they have to face their NFC West conquerers in the championship game.

 

[jmdirt]

"To wit, Pierce described a pregame scene of Smith -- wearing nothing but a jock strap -- being slathered from head to toe in petroleum jelly by trainers. Thanks for the image, Antonio."

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/14526862/nfl-playoffs-seattle-seahawks-minnesota-vikings-brace-historically-cold-game

 

[BullsFan22]

Re:

"To wit, Pierce described a pregame scene of Smith -- wearing nothing but a jock strap -- being slathered from head to toe in petroleum jelly by trainers. Thanks for the image, Antonio."

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/14526862/nfl-playoffs-seattle-seahawks-minnesota-vikings-brace-historically-cold-game

Not saying that it's gonna feel awesome out there for both teams, but this is 2016, with much better conditions for the players to perform in with heaters, coats, better insulation, etc. I don't think it'll be a high scoring affair, but with Lynch back, and obviously AP in there, it'll be a lot of hard yards gained. If it's close, it'll be field goals that decide this game.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

KC@HOU - Like a lot of other recent games, the Chiefs win a close one. The biggest factor is that while I think Hoyer may play okay, I just don't see Houston moving the ball much against KC's defense. Houston's defense is very tough, but KC plays mistake free (thanks Alex!) and gets in the red zone enough. 20-16.


PIT@CIN - With DeAngelo Williams now out, the Steelers are down to no proven running backs (Frenchie Toussaint?!). While the OL does more work, that can't help. I still think they have more than enough passing firepower to win, and I question that McCarron can do enough if the Bengals can't run enough. 31-30.

SEA@MIN - Won't be a blowout like the last game, and it will be a lot of running. But Seattle just has more tools, and much more experience. 27-17.

GB@WAS - Supposedly David Bakhtiari (left OT) is now playing for Green Bay, and that will help. I question Washington's secondary, and Rodgers could burn them. Only if his receivers can get open, and he's protected, on enough plays. But I like the consistency of Washington overall, even if Cousins doesn't have a light's out game. 30-27.

That's three away teams, which is unlikely. If I have the biggest question marks, it's the Pitt-Cincy game mostly. That could go either way. Green Bay might beat Washington, I just don't expect them to.

Might change my mind before now and kickoff, but I wanted to get this posted.

 

[jmdirt]

Re: Re:

"To wit, Pierce described a pregame scene of Smith -- wearing nothing but a jock strap -- being slathered from head to toe in petroleum jelly by trainers. Thanks for the image, Antonio."

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/14526862/nfl-playoffs-seattle-seahawks-minnesota-vikings-brace-historically-cold-game

Not saying that it's gonna feel awesome out there for both teams, but this is 2016, with much better conditions for the players to perform in with heaters, coats, better insulation, etc. I don't think it'll be a high scoring affair, but with Lynch back, and obviously AP in there, it'll be a lot of hard yards gained. If it's close, it'll be field goals that decide this game.

I mostly posted it so you would have the image of Smith lathered in petrol-jelly burned in your brain!

 

[movingtarget]

Hue Jackson Now Favorite For The 49ers job

https://t.co/IfYwDKv93x

 

[The Hitch]

Re:

KC@HOU - Like a lot of other recent games, the Chiefs win a close one. The biggest factor is that while I think Hoyer may play okay, I just don't see Houston moving the ball much against KC's defense. Houston's defense is very tough, but KC plays mistake free (thanks Alex!) and gets in the red zone enough. 20-16.


PIT@CIN - With DeAngelo Williams now out, the Steelers are down to no proven running backs (Frenchie Toussaint?!). While the OL does more work, that can't help. I still think they have more than enough passing firepower to win, and I question that McCarron can do enough if the Bengals can't run enough. 31-30.

SEA@MIN - Won't be a blowout like the last game, and it will be a lot of running. But Seattle just has more tools, and much more experience. 27-17.

GB@WAS - Supposedly David Bakhtiari (left OT) is now playing for Green Bay, and that will help. I question Washington's secondary, and Rodgers could burn them. Only if his receivers can get open, and he's protected, on enough plays. But I like the consistency of Washington overall, even if Cousins doesn't have a light's out game. 30-27.

That's three away teams, which is unlikely. If I have the biggest question marks, it's the Pitt-Cincy game mostly. That could go either way. Green Bay might beat Washington, I just don't expect them to.

This is how I have it and how pretty much everyone has it.

Don't think I've seen a prediction so far that doesn't have the away teams winning all but the last one. That game - Wash GB, is the only one people are a bit wary of because Aaron Rodgers could go off. And Green Bay have been just as good away as at home over the last year or so.

But I'm worried that the other 3 games won't be too entertaining. Could easily see Seattle KC and Pittsburgh have their games wrapped up by the 4th quarter

 

[Merckx index]

Re:

Good post comparing 2015 SE to 2013 SF, Hitch. Both teams were/are built similarly, too, with strong defense, great RB, and mobile QB. Both teams got better in the second half, too. For SE the difference over the last 6-7 games has been dramatic. SF 2013 was more consistently good over the course of the season, but they did lose a couple of games early (including one to SE as SE this year initially lost to AZ), and they got noticeably better past the midway point when Crabtree returned.

The future of the NFL will enter college next year. John "Junior" Krahn. 7'0 and 440 lbs. Word is his footwork needs help, and his conditioning. That isn't such a need though for a high school running back in Hawaii named David Fangupo, who has surprising speed to go with his power. Power that comes from weighing 350 lbs, which has made him virtually unstoppable at the HS level. He plays for Hawaii next season.

Funny, I was just wondering when the first 7-footer would enter the NFL, before I saw your post. I was thinking how players have gotten progressively bigger over the years, how and why. The why is easy to answer: it’s a classic evolutionary arms race. Bigger OL are taken to counter defenses; defenses respond with larger DL; and so on.

How does it happen? Nutritional advantages have probably been maxed out. Doping can make you stronger, but not taller. I think the answer is just selection. There have always been a few large men in the population; as size becomes more advantageous, the most athletic of them become candidates for the NFL.

But at some point this will come up against a limit. There aren’t that many 7-footers in the population. It’s been estimated that there are only seventy men age 20-40 in the U.S. this height; it’s thought that one in six guys over 7 feet tall is in the NBA. So even if all of these guys were tough enough and athletic enough to play in the NFL, you wouldn’t have enough for more than one or two on average per team. Expanding to other countries would greatly increase the pool, of course, particularly because in some countries, e.g., the Netherlands, the average male is taller than in the U.S. But there still probably aren't many big men athletic enough to play in the NFL.

As to this week's games, this is apparently the first time all four WC teams have been favored to win, though the odds on GB vs. Washington have been bouncing back and forth.

I think SE is a lock over Minnesota, the key thing being that the Seahawks do not have to play lights out, as they mostly have the past 6-7 games, to win. They can play less than their best game and still prevail. MN's offense depends heavily on Peterson, and SE allowed the fewest rushing yards in the NFL this year. I don't think this game will be that close.

I think the next most certain pick is KC over Houston. But Houston does have a very strong defense, and while their offense doesn't scare anyone, at least their QB situation is better than it was a few weeks ago. I expect KC to win, but I wouldn't be shocked if Houston did, and if they did, and went on to play DE (which would happen if Cincy wins), I could see them with a decent shot of winning that game, too.

The other two games I think are tossups. Everyone (except that stat guy Alpe posted about) seems to think Pitt will beat Cincy without Dalton. But the Steelers don't have a good RB at this point, and Ben probably isn't going to be as effective without the running game. As I posted earlier, he was third in interception % this year. In fact, he's been very inconsistent, brilliant in some games, poor in others. I'll take Cincy, but a much surer prediction I will make is that the Steelers won't go all the way. They may beat Cincy, maybe easily, but at some point they will have a poor game.

GB vs. Washington also very hard to pick. I do think GB is the best dark horse candidate, that is, a team that no one thinks can go deep in the playoffs winning it all. There are basically four teams in that category, GB, MN, Wash and HOU. I think if one of those four teams managed to shock everyone it would be GB. They've been one of the most consistently good teams over the past 5-6 years, should have been in the SB last year, and still have Rodgers. I'll take GB.

We were discussing weather earlier. The two conferences offer an interesting contrast in that respect. All of the WC games except KC at HOU are in cold weather cities. But after the WC round, both NFC games will be played in warm weather cities, while both AFC games will be played in cold weather places. That is very likely to be the case for the title games as well. The AFC championship will be played in a cold weather city unless all three of the top seeds lose, which is quite unlikely, and the NFC championship will be played in a warm weather city unless both CAR and AZ lose, which I think is even more improbable.

 

[jmdirt]

I'm taking: SEA, CIN, KC, GB