National Football League

[Nomad]

View: https://youtu.be/3TyJRwYwqKU?si=yUN_KzjwRPRSNQHD

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

At least he didn't say Herbert, like Peyton Manning did, and so many others seem to believe.

I think the key difference is if the Falcons are done with Cousins after this season, they likely could get something in return for him sending him to another team (if he's healthy, and playing the same level as last season - good, if not great). They'd likely have to eat a heap of cash, but they'd get something. No one would give $1 for Wilson, even if Denver tossed in numerous things, and cash. The Broncos got nothing by cutting Wilson, and will be paying him through next season.

49ers played several starters last night against the Raiders for some reason, and only looked so-so, their OL looking problematic. If the Raiders showed poor depth in their first 2 preseason games, here they looked okay.

After saying they weren't going to play him at all in the preseason, the Panthers finally played Bryce Young, and he looked good. Though it is preseason. .

One final thought on preseason is this: kickers are getting too good. 45+ yard FGs are increasingly automatic, and kicks over 55 yards are more frequently attempted, and made, some over 60. Not every kicker, but an increasing amount it seems.

 

[Nomad]

At least he didn't say Herbert, like Peyton Manning did, and so many others seem to believe.

I think the key difference is if the Falcons are done with Cousins after this season, they likely could get something in return for him sending him to another team (if he's healthy, and playing the same level as last season - good, if not great). They'd likely have to eat a heap of cash, but they'd get something. No one would give $1 for Wilson, even if Denver tossed in numerous things, and cash. The Broncos got nothing by cutting Wilson, and will be paying him through next season.

The Falcons are done with Cousins this season. FFS, what team drafts a QB in the FIRST round - especially high 1st rd - that isn't satisfied with the veteran starter? I pointed out some of the impact players that the Falcons passed on by drafting MPJ with the 8th pick. Those players are day 1 starters & can make an immediate impact on a team.

Cousins is backup material. What is this now...his third team he's on? He couldn't cut it at Wash nor Minn. And now he's damaged goods with that major Achilles injury. Who cares Blank threw all that money at Cousins - owners do this all the time. Lol. The acquisition of MPJ tells me the organization has no confidence whatsoever in Cousins winning & their best chance of turning this pathetic losing franchise around is going to be with MPJ.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

How long do you think until Penix starts? OR, what record do you think the Falcons will need to have for them to start him? I agree the Falcons obviously have buyers remorse with Cousins. But the owner does what the owner wants.

Tre Lance threw five picks against the Chargers defense, almost entirely made up of 2nd, 3rd, 4th stringers. That's 5x more than his entire college career. So, next time someone is convincing you an NCAA QB will shred NFL defenses like he did in college, point to this game. I have to wonder if before the preseason Jerry Jones thought, "I don't have to pay Dak, we can just get Lance some reps."

The misery of preseason soon over. I'll make some wild and wacky predictions later this week.

 

[movingtarget]

How long do you think until Penix starts? OR, what record do you think the Falcons will need to have for them to start him? I agree the Falcons obviously have buyers remorse with Cousins. But the owner does what the owner wants.

Tre Lance threw five picks against the Chargers defense, almost entirely made up of 2nd, 3rd, 4th stringers. That's 5x more than his entire college career. So, next time someone is convincing you an NCAA QB will shred NFL defenses like he did in college, point to this game. I have to wonder if before the preseason Jerry Jones thought, "I don't have to pay Dak, we can just get Lance some reps."

The misery of preseason soon over. I'll make some wild and wacky predictions later this week.

Stetson Bennett threw a ton of picks in the first two Rams games. Didn't play the last game think it was a guy called Wynn ? Jimmy G not not sighted so far. He had some knee soreness last I heard and of course he has to miss the first two real games with suspension.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I posted last year I thought Jimmy's body was just about done with football. At 32, he has the body of someone 42. One could even argue after his major ACL tear his career was never the same. He wasn't a runner, but he had speed and athleticism, and that injury took enough of that away from him. Injury after injury piled up after that. Some Raider fans hate the guy, and Netflix made him look bad, but I never hated him. Josh McDaniels is to blame for the Raiders setback, not Jimmy, who played so-so, and was basically injured all of last season, just not enough to keep him from suiting up.

I also said two years ago Stafford's body looked about done and he should retire, and he had a very solid season last year. So, what do I know?

A hobbled Jimmy G is likely a better QB than Bennett. I think Bennett's issue goes back to college where he ran a powerhouse team where play action simply got receivers open, and he found them. The speed of NFL defensive coverage has taken most of that away. I think this same issue bit Max Duggan maybe.

I definitely don't feel bad for Jimmy though, at all. Plenty of cash. A couple rings (thanks, Tom!), personable. And arguably the best looking guy in the NFL. (Sam Hartman may dispute this. Packers cut Alex McGough, but he had that long-haired superhero thing going on. Some pics of Kevin Byard the dude looks like a clothing model!) .
...Boy, you can tell I'm ready for the season to actually start!

 

[movingtarget]

JuJu Smith-Schuster returning to Chiefs after release from Patriots

 

[Nomad]

How long do you think until Penix starts? OR, what record do you think the Falcons will need to have for them to start him? I agree the Falcons obviously have buyers remorse with Cousins. But the owner does what the owner wants.

That's tough to say. It could be early on if Cousins is struggling from the Achilles injury or he aggravates it (he didn't play in any preseason games & he's had no contact in practice scrimmages).

If the Achilles is holding up, then I would think he needs the team playing above .500 & in contention for a division title. How far the team goes below .500 and at what point during the season to warrant a QB change is anyone's guess (?). In Pickett's situation, it was just 4 games into the season where Tomlin made the change after a 1-3 start with Trubisky. With Lamar Jackson, the change was made from Flacco after the bye week with the Ravens sitting at 4-5, 2 games out of first place & a 3-game losing streak.

And maybe there's some plans for MPJ to play in some QB run/pass packages in short-yardage & red-zone situations?

 

[Nomad]

Tre Lance threw five picks against the Chargers defense, almost entirely made up of 2nd, 3rd, 4th stringers. That's 5x more than his entire college career. So, next time someone is convincing you an NCAA QB will shred NFL defenses like he did in college, point to this game. I have to wonder if before the preseason Jerry Jones thought, "I don't have to pay Dak, we can just get Lance some reps."

That's crazy....I thought this might have been a misprint when I first saw it on the ESPN ticker. How does one throw 5 picks in a preseason game? Is this a Cowboy preseason record?

Good thing Dallas has Cooper Rush as their backup. It's looks like Lance will be in QB rehab for a long time. Lol

 

[SHAD0W93]

JuJu Smith-Schuster returning to Chiefs after release from Patriots

And they cut Toney. Honestly nice trade in their favor.

Kansas City Chiefs Cut WR Kadarius Toney

Not surprisingly, Kadarius Toney is no longer a member of the Chiefs. Toney, originally drafted in 2021 by the Giants, regarded as one of the most exciting players in the draft, has seen his career go downhill after being traded by New York to the Chiefs, only to be cut two years later. Toney...

dailysnark.com

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Browns restructure Deshaun Watson's contract, again. And this article here nails it. Probably the worst contract in NFL history now.

They are basically backloading the deal to save some money this year (going from over, to under the cap, even though FA is over and the season is about to start. Yes, WTF?). However, this means they will be on the hook for $73m against the cap for Watson for 2025, and again in 2026. Don't forget, his contract is also 100% guaranteed. These numbers are sheer insanity for a guy who even when healthy (not often) has not even played very well. Often ranking as one of the weaker QBs. Like, Zach Wilson, Bryce Young numbers. Joshua Dobbs, Sam Howell, Tommy DeVito and Jake Browning looked better the last two seasons. One can argue he was hurt, but that's also part of the problem. But the Browns are paying him to be better than he was four years ago. Like, take us to the Super Bowl and win MVP type money. And they're stuck with him for the next three seasons. Cutting him results in a worse cap hit than Denver cutting Wilson. Let's not also forget the Browns gave up a heap of high draft picks to get him too.

 

[movingtarget]

Browns restructure Deshaun Watson's contract, again. And this article here nails it. Probably the worst contract in NFL history now.

They are basically backloading the deal to save some money this year (going from over, to under the cap, even though FA is over and the season is about to start. Yes, WTF?). However, this means they will be on the hook for $73m against the cap for Watson for 2025, and again in 2026. Don't forget, his contract is also 100% guaranteed. These numbers are sheer insanity for a guy who even when healthy (not often) has not even played very well. Often ranking as one of the weaker QBs. Like, Zach Wilson, Bryce Young numbers. Joshua Dobbs, Sam Howell, Tommy DeVito and Jake Browning looked better the last two seasons. One can argue he was hurt, but that's also part of the problem. But the Browns are paying him to be better than he was four years ago. Like, take us to the Super Bowl and win MVP type money. And they're stuck with him for the next three seasons. Cutting him results in a worse cap hit than Denver cutting Wilson. Let's not also forget the Browns gave up a heap of high draft picks to get him too.

The Browns have virtually made Watson untradeable not that anyone in their right minds would trade for him. The GM's for the Browns and Denver have a lot to answer for.. Two horrible contracts for Watson and Wilson. The Texans GM probably couldn't believe his luck. He managed to offload a PR disaster for a bonanza and in the process rapidly accelerated the Texans rebuild. Then it got even better when they picked up a quality QB and a promising young coach and they added even more quality players in the most recent draft and FA. They started by moving Hopkins which in retrospect was the right move, then Watson and in a short period have retooled their roster.

Seattle also made the right move and thoroughly fleeced Denver in the process and once again sped up their rebuild and also added some quality young p[layers in the last two drafts. The biggest question for Seattle at the moment is whether they stick with Geno Smith into the future. Not that he's been bad but he had a relative drop off last season while the Browns brought in Flacco off the street and he topped anything Watson has produced for them so far, then they cut him ? He was probably worth keeping as the back up although it seems they wanted a younger QB in there maybe to develop. So Flacco has moved to the Colts............

 

[Nomad]

View: https://youtube.com/shorts/qhLCiFPiau0?si=jD2JcaGT6gSzeTBd

A rookie QB starting. Stidham & Wilson as the backups. I won't be watching many Bronco games this year. Lol.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

The GM's for the Browns and Denver have a lot to answer for.

George Paton (GM in Denver) is one of the luckiest men in football. But at this point we all know Sean Payton is their de facto GM, or at least their VP of player personnel. Who knows how long Paton will last.

According to Chris Simms and a few other NFL inside reporters, Browns coach Kevin Stefanski didn't want Watson. It was owner Jimmy Haslem who pressed to get him. GM Andrew Barry said he could make the contract work in the long run, and Stefanski - not wanting to create friction (and wanting to keep his job by making the owner happy) signed off. But by that time the Texans already knew the Browns were fools who revealed their cards, and absolutely fleeced them, as did Watson's agent. So in a sense, all three of them (Haslem, Barry, and Stefanski) are to blame.

The odd part is according to Browns insiders, VP Paul DePodestra (the Moneyball guy), Barry, and Stefanski were all-in on the long-term, every dollar needs to make sense, every player needs to complement one another, mindset, before this signing. That all went out the window when Haslem wanted Watson. Owner gets what owner wants.

A rookie QB starting. Stidham & Wilson as the backups. I won't be watching many Bronco games this year. Lol.

You're in Colorado, right? They're on every weekend, buddy!

Since misery loves company, I'm in Oregon, where 49er (and Seahawk) games are on every week. Before that, I was in Connecticut, where Patriot (Giant and Jet) games were on every week. Killjoy for this Raider fan.

 

[jmdirt]

This is a small group so I probably don't need to restate this, but I have really never been a fan of Aaron the person even if I do appreciate some of the things that he has done on the field. That being said, this is a good mic'ed up IMO:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PCNmbM4TbSI

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Same. To be fair, his teammates have over and over spoken highly of him. And he still has the most impressive, compact release, like a fluid machine. Let's hope for his sake he can stay healthy. I wouldn't put money on it though.

 

[Nomad]

Rodger's teammates are jovial because he's back on the field, and after the failed experiment with Wilson, he gives them the best chance to win.

You hit it on the nail though - if he can stay healthy, and perform well coming off the surgically-repaired Achilles tear. The NFL did a cohort study over a 5 yr period (2009-2014) of players sustaining an Achilles rupture (Yang et al). Though it was a small sample size (80), and the average age was 26, the return to play rate (RTP) was only 61% (defined as playing in one PS or RS game in the season following the injury). The study found there was a 15% re-rupture rate over a 24 month period of RTP. And for those able to RTP, a 50% reduction in performance was noted (both skilled & unskilled positions).

So, here's a 41 yr old way past his prime coming back from a major Achilles injury with a significant career injury history already, expected to perform at a high level in an arduous 17 game season with no margin of error - I wouldn't put money on it either.

And the Jets seem to be one of those chronically injured teams anyway. If they start getting decimated with injuries to the OL, Rodgers will be in big trouble.

Aaron Rodgers’ Jets Ridiculed for Injury History as Ex-NFLer Compares Them to a ‘Trauma Ward’

Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets will be having a tough test this 2024 season. Ex-NFLer called them 'trauma ward' as he raised one concern

www.essentiallysports.com

 

[BullsFan22]

Rodger's teammates are jovial because he's back on the field, and after the failed experiment with Wilson, he gives them the best chance to win.

You hit it on the nail though - if he can stay healthy, and perform well coming off the surgically-repaired Achilles tear. The NFL did a cohort study over a 5 yr period (2009-2014) of players sustaining an Achilles rupture (Yang et al). Though it was a small sample size (80), and the average age was 26, the return to play rate (RTP) was only 61% (defined as playing in one PS or RS game in the season following the injury). The study found there was a 15% re-rupture rate over a 24 month period of RTP. And for those able to RTP, a 50% reduction in performance was noted (both skilled & unskilled positions).

So, here's a 41 yr old way past his prime coming back from a major Achilles injury with a significant career injury history already, expected to perform at a high level in an arduous 17 game season with no margin of error - I wouldn't put money on it either.

And the Jets seem to be one of those chronically injured teams anyway. If they start getting decimated with injuries to the OL, Rodgers will be in big trouble.

Aaron Rodgers’ Jets Ridiculed for Injury History as Ex-NFLer Compares Them to a ‘Trauma Ward’

Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets will be having a tough test this 2024 season. Ex-NFLer called them 'trauma ward' as he raised one concern

www.essentiallysports.com

Yeah, as great of a qb as Rodgers has been throughout his long career, just him being 41 already a risk for the Jets. Now add the injuries and coming off of a serious one last season, and you are essentially asking for trouble.

And if he’s healthy all season, what do they realistically expect of him? Do they think he’ll lead them to the playoffs? Is it all just for show?

 

[movingtarget]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETq74Q-je2M

 

[jmdirt]

View: https://youtube.com/shorts/W1A8BNRf9vg?si=kvQu7Oo2kw6Vf1DH

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

My 2024 predictions, including the wacky and wonky!

The 49ers and Chiefs will play again in the Super Bowl. This time the 49ers will win, but the game will end on a big controversy.

MVP: Mahomes, DPOY: Micah Parsons, OROY: Caleb Williams, DROY: Dallas Turner

Better than expected: Bears, Dolphins, Titans.
Worse than expected: Browns, Chargers, Saints.

The good stuff:

• I mentioned controversy. I expect the amount of bad and controversial calls by referees will be at an all time high.
• Even after winning Super Bowl MVP, "experts" will still call Brock Purdy lucky, and a game manager.
• The Giants, Jets, Browns and a few other teams will fire their HC on black Monday, and the top of everyone's list will be Bill Belicheck to come in and somehow, some way, fix that mess of a team.
• Joe Burrow will be healthy most of the season, but underwhelm, causing a lot of concern.

The better stuff:

• After a good start (easy schedule) Aaron Rodgers will tear his other achilles 5 or so games into the season. His career will be over. The Jets will finish 7-10 again, and everyone will be fired.
• Kirk Cousins will last longer than Rodgers, but be fairly ineffective and benched at some point for Penix. The team will claim it's health related.
• Tyreek Hill will score a TD, then call out Noah Lyles and challenge him to a 100 yard dash (he'd lose).
• The Cowboys will lose to the 49ers in the playoffs on a horrible late pick by Dak. Jerry Jones will in a state of shock walk away happy in a mental episode believing the Cowboys actually won.
• Russell Wilson will play poor, talk like he's playing great, claim everyone on the team love's him. He'll be benched for Fields, and say it's a positive experience, a good step for his and Ciara's future.
• David Tepper will have a total fit after a difficult loss, and fire his entire staff, but call them back before the hour is up, then deny the entire story.
• A category 5 hurricane will cause major damage to Hard Rock Stadium, causing the Dolphins to play four home games in Orlando, where they will win by huge blowouts. Some fans will want them to move there, and call the team the Rodents (Disney/Mickey reference).
• The Saints will start bad, fire Dennis Allen, and hire Jon Gruden as their interim HC, then change their mind within days after the stink it causes.
• Injuries across the league will be worse than whatever Nomad predicts.

 

[Nomad]

Injuries across the league will be worse than whatever Nomad predicts.

I think that'll be the theme (again) for this season - especially with QBs. I predict at least half of the starting QBs will sustain an injury in one form or fashion - not necessarily season ending or IR level - but a game or two missed & then forced to play injured (didn't you have a stat on how many different QBs started at least game last year?).

Recall Lawrence's string of injuries that changed everything last season. The Jags were 8-3 & leading the division.when he sustained a high-ankle sprain later followed by a concussion & sprain to his throwing shoulder. Though he only missed "one" game, he played through the rest of season injured which significantly hurt his performance - the team went 1-6 & finished the season out of the playoffs. Having no confidence in his backup, Peterson would rather roll the dice with a less than 100% Lawrence than a healthy C.J. Beathard. Lol.

And that is what's frightening in this league - the huge dropoff between the starters & the backups. Starting QBs will be forced to play injured despite a reduction in performance. Can you imagine if Mahomes was lost for the season & the backup, Carson Wentz, is excepted to lead the team? The would be a nightmare on Elm St. Lol.

 

[Nomad]

Edwards-Helaire on NFI list, out at least 4 games

Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been placed on the non-football illness list and will miss at least four games.

www.espn.com

Sad situation. 1st round pick in 2020 (the only RB that KC has ever taken in the 1st rd). Beaten out by 7th rounder Pacheco in 2022 and relegated to a backup role the last two seasons (played in only 25 games).

And now KC is grooming Carson Steele aka "The Man of Steele" - a 228 lb FB/RB undrafted out of UCLA/Ball St. This guy has a 405 bench & 615 squat and runs like Larry Csonka. He had a great camp & made the 53 - Reid seems pretty high on this guy.

 

[SHAD0W93]

And now KC is grooming Carson Steele aka "The Man of Steele"

As long as Carson doesn’t “Steele“ my son’s sports nickname.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Didn't you have a stat on how many different QBs started at least one game last year?

66 QBs started at least one game last year.

But wait there's more...

• 83 took at least one snap. Not wildcat plays, think temp injuries, or garbage time. Players like Jake Haener, Mike White, Jeff Driskel, Kyle Trask (yep, they all played at least some. Plus a handful of other guys).
• Only 9 QBs started every game last season.
• Over one-fifth (22%) of the league's starting quarterbacks suffered season-ending injuries.
• 102 total games were missed due to quarterback injuries. In case you weren't sure, there are 272 total games in a season. This means well over one third of all games a starting QB was out.

So yeah, go right ahead and try to make a serious prediction what will happen this coming season. Good luck.