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Every year 7 teams that made the playoffs don't make them the following year. But I'm nowhere near making such predictions.

I also like teams with dual-threat and highly mobile QBs. As long as the guy can throw okay, and make good passing decisions, any of those teams offense has a chance, and will win some games. Stafford was mobile years ago, now? I don't think so. I'm worried Burrow is going to head that direction, even though he's still fairly young.

I think all new HC's will struggle more than shine: Johnson in Chicago, Coen in Jax, Moore in NO, Schottenheimer in Dallas. The Jets were already horrible, so Glenn may improve them, but they will still struggle.

After watching the Raiders rebuild with Pete Carroll, OC Chip Kelly, and holding onto Patrick Graham as DC, I looked into this theory: Teams that have coaches loaded with experience and former HC's as coordinators, tend to perform well as long as the HC, and players are at least decent. Washington with Quinn and Klingsbury. Philly with Siriani and DC Vic Fangio. Look at Denver where Sean was smart to hire Joseph, and brought in his old OC Pete Carmichael as an offensive assistant. And look at how good KC's defense is with Spagnolo - another former HC with years of coaching experience. The odd team out here may be New England. I don't know what to think of them right now.

I do like the Commanders chances of upending the Eagles. I think it will be ironic to see the Lions defense play better (a heap of guys hurt last year) but their offense take a step back. KC keeps winning, likely division titles, and playoff games, as long as Reid and Mahomes are there, and healthy. And having Spags doesn't hurt at all.
 
The odd team out here may be New England. I don't know what to think of them right now.
I think they have to show tremendous improvement from last season's embarrassing 4-13 finish because of one name: Drake Maye. Remember he was one of the big 3 drafted in that deep QB class. Elite size, elite arm & excellent athleticism with good speed to threaten defenses as a scrambler & designed runner (was a dual-threat at North Carolina). He has Josh Allen type talent.

Last season he started 12 games (3-9) & threw the ball fairly well (88 passer rating) but needs to cut down on the picks (15/10). His 421 rushing yards on a 7.8 average was impressive.

Vrabel & McDaniels went all offense in the first 3 rounds of the draft selecting the best OT & C, and the 4th best RB. I think Vrabel has to win 9 or 10 games & show that he can get NE back into playoff contention....now. Not 2 or 3 years down the road but now. They can not afford to have another 1st rd QB failure. Vrabel needs immediate success with Maye to keep his job. He's not a rookie HC - he's getting a second chance.
 
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I agree the Patriots need to at least look like a contender this year, and should be expected to seriously content in 2026. Consider this:
  • Jerrod Mayo was maybe the worst HC in the NFL last year. He looked lost much of the time.
  • They hired an experienced HC, a "homer" in Vrabel who once took Ryan Tannehill to the AFC championship.
  • They hired an experienced OC in Josh McDaniels who has a reputation of making QBs better. Rotten HC, but solid OC.
  • The Patriots were one of the more injured teams last year. Many will be back. Most are young.
  • They spent big in free agency: Diggs, Carlton Davis, Robert Spillane, Milton Williams, others.
  • They loaded up their offense in the draft to help Maye.
  • They have Maye on a rookie contract.
  • They just went through the rebuild phase. Up is the direction.
  • Kraft is old. There isn't much "future time" for him to sit around and wait.
I'm just a believe it when I see it guy. There is a lot of change here, a whole lot of moving parts.
 
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You've laid out a case where they've got some talent both with players & the coaching staff as well (they also have Hunter Henry - the team's leading receiver last year & top-10 in TE receiving yards).

Bottom line: Maye has Josh Allen type talent. His play is very similar to Allen. Furthermore, Allen had a similar rookie season starting 11 games (5-6) & struggled in the passing dept (ran the ball very well). Allen's breakout season was the following year where he threw the ball much better & the team went 10-6 with a WC birth. The following year he exploded as a passer leading the team to a 13 win season, division title & AFCCG appearance.

IMO, Maye has got to live up to his #3 OA billing & have a similar progression in his second year to that of Allen's.

 
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