National Football League

[jmdirt]

jmdrit's halftime analysis:

Both teams a little 'tentative'.
Both QBs seem calm, Goff more so.

Evans must catch those balls, yes it was a little high, but he had both hands on it, and then tipped it to DET.
Dean had the chance to end the ensuing drive with a pick that was in his hands, but didn't.
TB MUST have those plays.

Really good drive for DET to lob it in for 6.

Really good end of the half drive for TB.
-Evens making a catch that he should.

Officiating: Neither of the O pass interference calls were correct, at least they waved off the one on the TB score at the end of the half.

EDIT: End of Game

Entertaining game.

Congrats DET!

Unlike the two other teams that didn't win this weekend, I'm not sure that TB has the roster to be solid for the next few years. They need to plan wisely, IMO.

Going for two, while it ended up not mattering, was Fn stupid IMO.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Really good game! Mayfield made one mistake late, but to be honest, it was do or die time at that point. Detroit moves on to SF where I think their running attack gives them a decent chance. TB has a brighter future than many expected for sure.

I'll be cheering for Buffalo, but if I had to make a prediction I'll take KC by less than a FG. Buffalo's injuries being the factor. Johnson playing, but Bernard not. So, we'll see. I don't see either team beating Baltimore. Correction, I don't see anyone beating Baltimore.

 

[Nomad]

Really good game! Mayfield made one mistake late, but to be honest, it was do or die time at that point. Detroit moves on to SF where I think their running attack gives them a decent chance. TB has a brighter future than many expected for sure.

Please...Mayfield choked. He's got a buck 38, a TO & less than 85 yds to get a score & 2 pt conversion to tie the game & he throws the ball to the wrong colored Jersey. Lol.

I've seen Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, The Mannings, etc, mow down the field with much  less time & no TOs winning or tying games with last second heroics.

A Mayfield believes he's a franchise QB? Lol

View: https://youtu.be/GNfUuTXjEtg?si=JK8D2ZvOtje1jnPS

 

[Unchained]

Please...Mayfield choked. He's got a buck 38, a TO & less than 85 yds to get a score & 2 pt conversion to tie the game & he throws the ball to the wrong colored Jersey. Lol.

I've seen Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, The Mannings, etc, mow down the field with much  less time & no TOs winning or tying games with last second heroics.

A Mayfield believes he's a franchise QB? Lol

View: https://youtu.be/GNfUuTXjEtg?si=JK8D2ZvOtje1jnPS

I think your lol about Mayfield is spot on just wrong team, I think the Cleveland Browns thought he would get some of the egg off their faces after Johnny Football turned into Johnny 8- ball and spent time on what he thought was the important lines w strippers in Las Vegas!!
Mayfield has a Dilfer feel definitely not franchise, at any franchise..

 

[SHAD0W93]

That bad penalty might have helped the Bills more by Chiefs running the clock out a little more. This game is coming down to the wire.

 

[Potomac]

I'm watching with my in-laws....they are rabid Bills fans.

 

[Nomad]

Nomad, this might be a tall ask, let's say for the last @10 draft years, is there a big spread between position player contract dollar values and years signed. As an example for Lamar Jackson, came in the league in 2018..all the numbers I read said that he was owed $185 million guaranteed. I have heard it referred to as class..like the class of 2018..what other quarterbacks came in with him in 2018? And were the contact amounts and lengths similar?
That's really my question, are terms and amounts similar per draft year for similar position?
My other question would be about you and Justin Herbert.. In 2020, did you think he deserved offensive rookie of the year? And follow up who was better?
* I don't know any of the answers* I certainly think that Herbert is an underperformer but you have data that has him in the bust category!

Are you talking about the rookie contracts from the QBs drafted in 2018? Mayfield was the #1 OA & Jackson was the last player selected in the 1st rd (32). (Recall he didn't look all that happy as he sat at his table by himself wondering why in the heck they didn't call his name with the earlier picks).

Despite Jackson being a 1st round pick, the disparity in contracts & signing bonuses (i.e. free dough) between #1 vs #32 is like night & day: $32m & $21m signing for Mayfield vs $9m & $4.9m signing for Jackson. The rookie contract for Darnold, #3 OA, was similar to Mayfield ($30m/$20m). But a significant dropoff with Allen at #7 ($21m/$15m).

All the big dough is with the first 3 or 4 picks of the draft. This is where coaches & GMs do cartwheels & backflips trying to convince ownership to open the checkbook & sign these top picks as the QBs that will lead them to the promised land. Lol. And you ain't seen nothing yet - just wait until the hype & hoopla surrounds Caleb Williams after the Combine next month. Lord knows what his rookie contract will look like.

On Herbert: I don't think he deserved rookie of the year. I would have selected Jonathan Taylor. JT rushed for 1100 yds, caught 36 passes & scored 12 TDs while leading the Colts to a 11-5 record, 2nd in the division & playoff appearance. Granted, Herbert had very impressive stats but the team went 7-9 finishing 3rd in the division.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Bills have to be wondering what they can do to get past the hump. No turnovers and couldn’t get it done. Chiefs defense managed to hold on and get the stops when they needed them to and their offense ran all over Bills defense. The offense looked good, it will be interesting how they do against the Ravens.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Wide right!

Bills lost because they gave up on the run in the 4th Q, especially the last drive, last set of downs. They had been pounding KC back most of the game, but as it got tight, they ran less and less, and expected Allen to bail them out with his arm. Their defense got almost zero pressure on Mahomes. Leslie Frazier rarely blitzed either.

I'll take Baltimore by double digits over KC.

The Mannings...mow down the field with much  less time & no TOs winning or tying games with last second heroics.

Peyton Manning, despite all his heroics, was 14-13 in his career in the playoffs, 40 TDs with 25 Ints, with plenty of "choke" games.

 

[Nomad]

KC to the championship game for the 6th consecutive year! My prediction before the playoffs Alpe).

The Bill's kicker choked - inexcusable in a game like that.

Vintage Gunslinger. In your face running by Pacheco! - is this guy for real or what.

Great matchup with Mahomes vs Jackson. But I got the Gunslinger all the way to the SB!

 

[SHAD0W93]

KC to the championship game for the 6th consecutive year! My prediction before the playoffs Alpe).

The Bill's kicker choked - inexcusable in a game like that.

Vintage Gunslinger. In your face running by Pacheco! - is this guy for real or what.

Great matchup with Mahomes vs Jackson. But I got the Gunslinger all the way to the SB!

Even if he made it Chiefs were moving the ball and most likely get down the field. They needed a touchdown and their defense just came up with the stop knocking Allen back before the throw.


Like Alpe said though, they completely abandoned the run which was working for them.

 

[Nomad]

Peyton Manning, despite all his heroics, was 14-13 in his career in the playoffs, 40 TDs with 25 Ints, with plenty of "choke" games.

But he's had plenty of "win" games & he's a 2xSB champion, SB MVP & future HOFer. You're coping in trying to defend Mayfield. Very uncharacteristic of you to defend a bust QB. Lol.

 

[jmdirt]

Entertaining game.

KC had more control, and made better adjustments at halftime (maybe due to injuries BUF couldn't adjust the way the wanted to). I too wonder why BUF didn't keep running the ball. KC did adjust, but BUF didn't really test the adjustments either.

Every year I rant about this: The NFL MUST change the rule that gives the ball to the other team on a fumble out of the end zone! DUMBEST F*CKING RULE! The correct rule would give the ball to the fumbling team where they fumbled. Why is the out of bounds line in the end zone any different than the other 200 yards of line?!

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

.... You're coping in trying to defend Mayfield. Very uncharacteristic of you to defend a bust QB. Lol.

Okay, I'll confess. I've moved to Tampa. Mayfield is my hero. I'm certain he's going to take Tampa to multiple Super Bowl wins.

Earlier in the season I called him a good game manager. I'll stick with that. Putting your team's hopes on his shoulders to get you to the Super Bowl seems like a real stretch. Though they still play in the weakest division, and have a solid team, so I can see them taking the NFC South again next year. Their future doesn't look bad. Though if they give Mayfield a Daniel Jones/Derek Carr level of contract, that will quickly eat into that future.

Bold prediction of KC over Baltimore! I don't see it. Bills were a mess of a team. Baltimore is a juggernaut, and they have their own "gunslinger" who also rides a really fast horse.

Hey, wasn't Brett Favre the gunslinger? Just sayin.

Bills have to be wondering what they can do to get past the hump.

They have multiple problems. Mostly on their defense. They simply do not get much pressure on any QB. Roussou is 23, Floyd is 27, both are better against the run than pass. Almost the rest of their defense is old, or has suffered multiple injuries. Von Miller, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Tre White, Matt Milano, are all aging, their bodies damaged to some degree. Most in their 30's, all have shown they can't make it through a season. But this also applies to other starters who are younger. Rapp, Johnson, Bernard. Almost impossible to expect them to all be on the field in December, let alone January, in future seasons. Even if they are still top players, which I question. Their defense peaked 3 years ago, now they are noticeably on the down slide.

But there are gaps on offense too. They have one good receiver, Diggs, who has also been hurt. Their TE Knox is good, but has been hurt. Their OL has been in and out of games with injuries. Their running game is decent, but not explosive.

The depth this team relied on over the last few years, has vanished. It's allowed them to hang on, that's about it.

Their special teams, well, you saw what Bass did on a makeable 44yd FG.

They will be competitive as long as the have Josh Allen, and he's healthy enough and has decent players around them, but while Miami looks like they are on the upswing in that division, Buffalo looks like they may struggle to make the playoffs.

 

[BullsFan22]

Please...Mayfield choked. He's got a buck 38, a TO & less than 85 yds to get a score & 2 pt conversion to tie the game & he throws the ball to the wrong colored Jersey. Lol.

I've seen Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, The Mannings, etc, mow down the field with much  less time & no TOs winning or tying games with last second heroics.

A Mayfield believes he's a franchise QB? Lol

View: https://youtu.be/GNfUuTXjEtg?si=JK8D2ZvOtje1jnPS

Add Wilson in there…

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Every year I rant about this: The NFL MUST change the rule that gives the ball to the other team on a fumble out of the end zone! DUMBEST F*CKING RULE! The correct rule would give the ball to the fumbling team where they fumbled.

Plus loss of the down. To be clear: If a team has the ball on the 3, it's first down, the guy runs and at the 2 yard line fumbles it through the end zone, it should now be second down from the 2. That's most logical. At the very least they could just rule it a loss of down, and go back to the line of scrimmage, period. Though this would be odd if a guy ran 65 yards like Leon Lett, and then fumbled out of the end zone. But still, even this would be more fair.

It's one of the rules that baffles me and I'd love to see changed.

I'd also like to see PI the way the USFL did it last year. 15 yards and an automatic first down, unless it's ruled flagrant, than it's at the spot of the foul. I believe last season in the USFL there were only a couple of flagrant calls, and everyone was good with it.

Of course, I could write for an hour on NFL officiating. I will say this though, at least this weekend none of the games outcome were affected by the officials.

 

[BullsFan22]

Nice kick by Tyler Norwood

 

[jmdirt]

BUF, much like TB, needs to make solid decisions between now and camp.

 

[movingtarget]

Eagles fire defensive coordinator Sean Desai after one season with team

The Philadelphia Eagles have fired defensive coordinator Sean Desai, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported on Sunday.

www.nfl.com

 

[BullsFan22]

BUF, much like TB, needs to make solid decisions between now and camp.

I think for Buffalo it’s more about tactics, adjustments and getting it done in tight playoff games. They have a team that can legitimately challenge for the SB. They can get the best possible players they feel they need but until you make the necessary in game decisions and have a bit of luck, you won’t win these types of games. They were fortunate enough to get to this point though. They had a very mediocre first half of the season and needed a mini collapse by the Dolphins to win the division and get home field for the first couple games.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Not surprised Desai was let go. Then again, I'm still not sure who actually was the Eagles DC at the end of the season? Was it Brian Johnson? Sean Desai? Matt Patrician?

I've seen Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Brady, Brees, Rodgers...

Rodgers is the oddity in there. He's had quite a few games where he simply did not come up big when a key game was on the line. These stats are skewed, I will admit that, but they are fairly damning.

• 3-45 in his entire career when trailing by double digit points in the 4th quarter. (A tilted stat, but I tried calculating this on Brady, and he was about 20-20).
• 0-37 when training by more than 1 point against a winning team. (This one is admidately really odd, because there are a handful of comebacks where he won in OT, or the game was tied late, against good teams. Just not many).
• 1-4 in NFC Championship games, including 3 of those games at home.
• He's just 28th all time in 4Q comebacks, tied with Kerry Collins. Behind guys like Ryan Tannehill, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins. Both Brady and Manning have twice as many.

They also lost that disaster of a divisional game after going 15-1. Granted, he's put his teams ahead, sometimes well ahead, in big games. And he's made some seriously clutch throws in his career, threws few other players in history have made, no question about it. But he's also failed to win tight games quite a few times. A surprising amount of times.

I think for Buffalo it’s more about tactics, adjustments and getting it done in tight playoff games. They have a team that can legitimately challenge for the SB. They can get the best possible players they feel they need but until you make the necessary in game decisions and have a bit of luck, you won’t win these types of games. They were fortunate enough to get to this point though. They had a very mediocre first half of the season and needed a mini collapse by the Dolphins to win the division and get home field for the first couple games.

Per my previous post: I think they are aging, and have many damaged players, highly susceptible to injury, especially on defense. Other teams have some aging and oft injured players but the Bills have numerous starters who can't get through a season.

This brings up an interesting thought. What if they started nothing but back-up players for the first 8 games of the season...

 

[BullsFan22]

Not surprised Desai was let go. Then again, I'm still not sure who actually was the Eagles DC at the end of the season? Was it Brian Johnson? Sean Desai? Matt Patrician?

Rodgers is the oddity in there. He's had quite a few games where he simply did not come up big when a key game was on the line. These stats are skewed, I will admit that, but they are fairly damning.

• 3-45 in his entire career when trailing by double digit points in the 4th quarter. (A tilted stat, but I tried calculating this on Brady, and he was about 20-20).
• 0-37 when training by more than 1 point against a winning team. (This one is admidately really odd, because there are a handful of comebacks where he won in OT, or the game was tied late, against good teams. Just not many).
• 1-4 in NFC Championship games, including 3 of those games at home.
• He's just 28th all time in 4Q comebacks, tied with Kerry Collins. Behind guys like Ryan Tannehill, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins. Both Brady and Manning have twice as many.

They also lost that disaster of a divisional game after going 15-1. Granted, he's put his teams ahead, sometimes well ahead, in big games. And he's made some seriously clutch throws in his career, threws few other players in history have made, no question about it. But he's also failed to win tight games quite a few times. A surprising amount of times.

Per my previous post: I think they are aging, and have many damaged players, highly susceptible to injury, especially on defense. Other teams have some aging and oft injured players but the Bills have numerous starters who can't get through a season.

This brings up an interesting thought. What if they started nothing but back-up players for the first 8 games of the season...

Their window is closing. They can contend for another couple seasons, but by then Allen is gonna be 30 and if they don’t make it to a SB, he may ask for a trade.

 

[SHAD0W93]

I also think Diggs will be gone as well. He’s thrown multiples fits and gets upset when not utilized but had some bad drops as well this game. Bills most of all have to be irritated with the stops the Chiefs came up with. On a different note I think they make a head coaching change to an offensive minded coach. Higher ups could blame the defense the last couple times they lost to the Chiefs and the fact they are at home and had 1 and almost another delay of game penalty is ridiculous. Poor coaching and the team looked to be getting flustered the longer it got that Chiefs were going blow to blow with them.

Bills fans also have to be pissed for shoveling the stadium the last two weeks only for this to happen. It was cool seeing Jason Kelce enjoy his retirement (if he does retire).

Ravens should be the toughest matchup yet because of how good they are on both sides of the ball and are a very physical team. Chiefs have struggled on both sides with physicality and Ravens are a run first team which Chiefs defense struggles with. It will also be interesting to see how their offense performs against a defense that isn’t depleted because if you just look at the box score you’d think they’re back or close to their old level. They’ve also struggled to score in the redzone and Mahomes missed two touchdown throws that he usually makes. What they have been doing to though is playing clean football.


On the NFC side Lions can bully the Niners like the Packers did and can pull off an upset. Either team can challenge Chiefs or Ravens with their physicality. It would be cool if we got a week 1 rematch.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Excellent post. Agree with all you wrote.

Don't forget the Ravens already beat the Lions 38-6. And the 49ers 33-19.

Their defense has been tough, and an absolute wall in the red zone. Their offense? They throttled some other good teams this year:

Miami: 56-19
Seattle: 37-3
Cincinnati: 34-20
Jacksonville: 33-7
Cleveland: 28-3

 

[movingtarget]

Heartbreak again for the Bills. it seems that the Chiefs always find a way eventually and the kicker woes affected more than a few teams this season.. Allen could have been tidier down the stretch but that's Allen while Mahomes did what he usually does. The fake punt call was questionable. Some of the calls by the refs were...........but every team suffers from that eventually just ask the Rams from last week.

Detroit game was entertaining enough and the score was about what I expected. Don't see see the 49ers losing to Detroit especially after the scare by the Packers. Deebo injury is some concern but it sounds like he might play and for a change the 49ers have no other injury concerns. Ravens are playing confidently and the Chiefs match up should be a very interesting one.