National Football League

[Nomad]

To me, Prescott, Herbert and Lawrence are not Tier 1. In pure physical talent? Sure. But their inability to lead their teams to important victories, over and over, knocks them from that ledge.

On the flip side of that, arguments can be made that Purdy and Hurts are Tier 2.

It wasn't just the Raiders OL, Geno Smith was absolutely terrible belongs in Tier 6 or 7.

Shedeur gets too much credit, and Gabriel too much blame for where they are. Like Herbert (and Dak) the media loves Shedeur. Also, Carson Wentz gets somewhat of a pass as he was pretty much injured the entire time he was wearing a jersey. I honestly think he should retire.

As to the SF 49ers, wasn't 2024 their rebuild year? With this past season the first step forward? Now only some holes need filling? (OL mostly, but Shanahan isn't too big on drafting high or spending in FA on the OL).

You can't put much credibility on that because it's one man's opinion. "Nick Scott" is an NFL writer - he's never been a HC, coordinator, GM, etc.

The Tier rating system from "The Atlantic" is far more creditable & I use it as reference all the time. It comes out every August & is a made up of a panel of 50 voters - comprised of 6 GMs, 6 Asst GMs, 6 former GMs, 5 executives, 8 head coaches & 19 coordinators:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6514160/2025/08/11/nfl-qb-rankings-tiers-2025-jackson-daniels/

They use 5 levels of Tiers (1 through 5):

Tier 1: "A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure-passing situations. He has no real holes in his game."

Tier 2: "A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes but not as consistent. He can handle pure-passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game."

Tier 3: "A Tier 3 quarterback is a legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defensive component to win. A lower-volume dropback passing suits him best."

Tier 4 & 5 are basically different levels of backups or unproven veteran starters.

Under their system, there are currently only 5 Tier 1 QBs: Allen, Burrow, Jackson, Mahomes & Stafford.

The Tier 2 QBs are currently Daniels, Herbert, Goff, Hurts, Love, Mayfield, Prescott, Purdy & Stroud.

Herbert's introductory statement is "A click slower than some of the elites, but he is still a Stud" (there you go Alpe. Lol).

The rest of the starters mainly fall under the Tier 3 category.

Both Lawrence & Smith are currently listed under Tier 3. The introductory statement for Smith reads "Pretty good at everything, but nothing stands out as elite traits."

The list is updated every year. Players can move up & down the list based on the voter's evaluations. For example, Rodgers was listed as a "Tier 1" every year since the list first came out in 2014, but has steadily dropped starting from the 2022 season where he's now ranked as a "Tier 3." His introductory statement: "He can't be dynamic like he was, but he can still play." (couldn't agree more).

When the list comes out this August, it'll be interesting to see if anyone from Tier 1 drops, and if anyone from Tier 2 moves up (as well as 2 to 3 & 3 to 2).

 

[Nomad]

Well, it was worse before the new CBA. In fact, the contract Sam Bradford signed (after missing his entire senior year in college) was so big at 6 years and $78m, even today no one has matched it. The worse example though is JaWalrus Russell. 6 years at $68m, with $32m of that guaranteed. And Russell held out until the Raiders paid him. Then, once he had his cash, he became the biggest bust in NFL history. Haunting the Raiders to this day walking away with some $40m in cash, and leaving the team in a massive hole of dead money. In fact, it was these two contracts, nearly 20 years ago now, that led to the 2011 (and 2021) CBA with rookie pay all but fixed.

The difference is today many rookie contracts, while lower, have even more guaranteed money. My quibble is the CBA is too loaded at the top for rookies. The 1st round guys (top 10 especially) are overpaid, and the mid and lower round guys "underpaid".

The issue with pay though, is if it didn't go to the players, all the money would go to the owners, who are pretty much all billionaires. This is why I think having the CBA split pretty close to 50/50 owners/players has proven to be fair, even if the entire amount of cash is outrageous. We've also reached the point where the NFL is so successful they may as well have their own money printing machine. The worst owners, and there are some bad ones, and cheap ones, still make big money.

UFL players make maybe $65k a year. About the same as any other job of, call it, experienced, physical labor, where injury is possible (construction for example). The ownership group says they can't afford more, and the league barely breaks even, and they may be right. From what I can gather CFL players make noticeably more, with the top players making well over double that (UFL pay is fairly equal per position). At some point the UFL may sell limited partnership/franchises, similar to how MLS operates, which could bring in more cash. Time will tell. MLS is a good guideline because they actually lost money for several years, millions, before slowly starting to break even, find their sweet spot, and start turning a profit.

The rookie contracts for the #1 OA pick vs lower drafted players in the 1st round is profound & ridiculous.

For example, Ward's rookie contract is $48m/4 yrs with a $32m signing bonus! (can you believe that; $32m for just signing the dotted line!).

OTOH, Dart's contract (25th OA) is $16m/4 yrs with a $8.9m signing bonus.

Both players, being 1st round picks, get a sweet 5th yr option with their deals. Lol.

The real bargain in this year's draft was Shough. Drafted early in the 2nd round his rookie contract is only $10m/4 yrs with a $4.4m signing bonus and no 5th yr option.

The irony of all this? Dart outperformed Ward by leaps & bounds, and Shough outperformed Dart! (2nd in ROY voting).

 

[movingtarget]

To me, Prescott, Herbert and Lawrence are not Tier 1. In pure physical talent? Sure. But their inability to lead their teams to important victories, over and over, knocks them from that ledge.

On the flip side of that, arguments can be made that Purdy and Hurts are Tier 2.

It wasn't just the Raiders OL, Geno Smith was absolutely terrible belongs in Tier 6 or 7.

Shedeur gets too much credit, and Gabriel too much blame for where they are. Like Herbert (and Dak) the media loves Shedeur. Also, Carson Wentz gets somewhat of a pass as he was pretty much injured the entire time he was wearing a jersey. I honestly think he should retire.

As to the SF 49ers, wasn't 2024 their rebuild year? With this past season the first step forward? Now only some holes need filling? (OL mostly, but Shanahan isn't too big on drafting high or spending in FA on the OL).

Purdy and Hurts are definitely tier 2. don't agree with their QB ratings at all.
49ers will need two more drafts and FA to plug all their gaps. They are one of the oldest teams in the league. Their four best players are over 30 and all got injured last season. CMC about to turn 30. Their best WR was Jennings who they will lose who is also not a WR1 and also a vet which is why they had to use CMC so much. Pearsall has been injury prone for two seasons, their number one pick. Their biggest issue for most of the Shanahan era is that they don't draft well in the early rounds compared to teams like the Chiefs, Eagles, Seattle and the Rams. They got lucky drafting Purdy, you could argue that he may have even saved Shanahan's and Lynch's jobs.

 

[movingtarget]

49ers will be good, but don't you think they need fresh blood at receiver and perhaps running back? One of the reason the Rams do so well on offense against the Seahawks is the ability of their receivers, especially Nacua, to get open (sometimes just a small window) and make the really tough catches. Although that's also about Stafford being able to get it into those small windows. And as you said, it's unclear how much McCaffery will have left in the tank. He's still be able to pile up a lot of yards, especially in the passing game. But we saw how much of a difference it makes having a back with explosiveness at the line of scrimmage and speed on the outside, like Walker, against the best teams and tough defenses.

Definitely a need at WR or two and back up RB. Brian Robinson wasn't the answer. See what the rookie Jordan James can do. O line needs a refresh and the defense is still full of holes compared to the Rams and Seattle who have drafted well.

 

[SHAD0W93]

View: https://youtu.be/Ku8_gHT8Ygs?si=btm3TjCe8r_sfxFm

 

[Nomad]

They got lucky drafting Purdy, you could argue that he may have even saved Shanahan's and Lynch's jobs.

Very lucky in drafting & developing him. If you look at the Tier 2 QB list from The Atlantic (Daniels, Herbert, Goff, Hurts, Mayfield, Prescott, Love, Stroud & Purdy), it's all 1st rounders except him, Hurts (2nd rd) & Prescott (4th rd).

But there's chinks in his armor with his injuries. Missing almost half the season with the toe injury is not good for your franchise QB. The 9ers were also very lucky they had Jones to bail them out. Many teams aren't as fortunate to have a high-quality backup like that (see the Bengals & Commanders. Lol).

And if Jones leaves to pursue a starting job somewhere, their QB room at the present does not look good. Adrian Martinez had some stints on a few teams as a PS guy, but as a pure dual-threat in college, he's a better runner than passer. His future in the NFL right now seems to be a candidate for practice squads.

Rouke has NFL caliber size & is a better passer than Martinez, but he's immobile & pretty much restricted as a pocket passer. Plus he has a bad knee now with the ACL injury which could make him even more immobile.

 

[Nomad]

View: https://youtu.be/Ku8_gHT8Ygs?si=btm3TjCe8r_sfxFm

So they're saying Big Ben is a bad person & bad teammate, and that should derail his HOF chances? With over 64,000 yds passing (7th all time), 418 TDs, passer rating of 94 & 2xSB winner, I'd be very surprised if he didn't get in.

 

[SHAD0W93]

So they're saying Big Ben is a bad person & bad teammate, and that should derail his HOF chances? With over 64,000 yds passing (7th all time), 418 TDs, passer rating of 94 & 2xSB winner, I'd be very surprised if he didn't get in.

More he’ll get in, just not first ballot and have to wait. Which with his sexual allegations might have made it hard anyways. Just goes to show how much Tomlin was keeping a lid on everything in the building.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

No kidding about Tomlin. Now that he's gone, the supports holding up the creaky facade are gone, and the ugliness comes through.

With Big Ben, he'll likely get in eventually. But I also wonder if we're at a point where the voters look at big numbers from career stats, and take into consideration things like 17 game seasons, better training, medicine, facilities, better everything else than years ago, plus a pass-heavy league, and aren't as impressed? I mean, look at the all-time passing yards leaders. It's loaded with guys who played in the last 20 years. If we flip this around, Joe Montana threw for 4,000 less career yards than Kirk Cousins. But get this, Kirk has thrown for double the yards Roger Staubach did. and Kirk is still playing. Geno Smith will likely pass Staubach if he plays at all this year!