National Football League

[Nomad]

To me, Prescott, Herbert and Lawrence are not Tier 1. In pure physical talent? Sure. But their inability to lead their teams to important victories, over and over, knocks them from that ledge.

On the flip side of that, arguments can be made that Purdy and Hurts are Tier 2.

It wasn't just the Raiders OL, Geno Smith was absolutely terrible belongs in Tier 6 or 7.

Shedeur gets too much credit, and Gabriel too much blame for where they are. Like Herbert (and Dak) the media loves Shedeur. Also, Carson Wentz gets somewhat of a pass as he was pretty much injured the entire time he was wearing a jersey. I honestly think he should retire.

As to the SF 49ers, wasn't 2024 their rebuild year? With this past season the first step forward? Now only some holes need filling? (OL mostly, but Shanahan isn't too big on drafting high or spending in FA on the OL).

You can't put much credibility on that because it's one man's opinion. "Nick Scott" is an NFL writer - he's never been a HC, coordinator, GM, etc.

The Tier rating system from "The Atlantic" is far more creditable & I use it as reference all the time. It comes out every August & is a made up of a panel of 50 voters - comprised of 6 GMs, 6 Asst GMs, 6 former GMs, 5 executives, 8 head coaches & 19 coordinators:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6514160/2025/08/11/nfl-qb-rankings-tiers-2025-jackson-daniels/

They use 5 levels of Tiers (1 through 5):

Tier 1: "A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure-passing situations. He has no real holes in his game."

Tier 2: "A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes but not as consistent. He can handle pure-passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game."

Tier 3: "A Tier 3 quarterback is a legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defensive component to win. A lower-volume dropback passing suits him best."

Tier 4 & 5 are basically different levels of backups or unproven veteran starters.

Under their system, there are currently only 5 Tier 1 QBs: Allen, Burrow, Jackson, Mahomes & Stafford.

The Tier 2 QBs are currently Daniels, Herbert, Goff, Hurts, Love, Mayfield, Prescott, Purdy & Stroud.

Herbert's introductory statement is "A click slower than some of the elites, but he is still a Stud" (there you go Alpe. Lol).

The rest of the starters mainly fall under the Tier 3 category.

Both Lawrence & Smith are currently listed under Tier 3. The introductory statement for Smith reads "Pretty good at everything, but nothing stands out as elite traits."

The list is updated every year. Players can move up & down the list based on the voter's evaluations. For example, Rodgers was listed as a "Tier 1" every year since the list first came out in 2014, but has steadily dropped starting from the 2022 season where he's now ranked as a "Tier 3." His introductory statement: "He can't be dynamic like he was, but he can still play." (couldn't agree more).

When the list comes out this August, it'll be interesting to see if anyone from Tier 1 drops, and if anyone from Tier 2 moves up (as well as 2 to 3 & 3 to 2).

 

[Nomad]

Well, it was worse before the new CBA. In fact, the contract Sam Bradford signed (after missing his entire senior year in college) was so big at 6 years and $78m, even today no one has matched it. The worse example though is JaWalrus Russell. 6 years at $68m, with $32m of that guaranteed. And Russell held out until the Raiders paid him. Then, once he had his cash, he became the biggest bust in NFL history. Haunting the Raiders to this day walking away with some $40m in cash, and leaving the team in a massive hole of dead money. In fact, it was these two contracts, nearly 20 years ago now, that led to the 2011 (and 2021) CBA with rookie pay all but fixed.

The difference is today many rookie contracts, while lower, have even more guaranteed money. My quibble is the CBA is too loaded at the top for rookies. The 1st round guys (top 10 especially) are overpaid, and the mid and lower round guys "underpaid".

The issue with pay though, is if it didn't go to the players, all the money would go to the owners, who are pretty much all billionaires. This is why I think having the CBA split pretty close to 50/50 owners/players has proven to be fair, even if the entire amount of cash is outrageous. We've also reached the point where the NFL is so successful they may as well have their own money printing machine. The worst owners, and there are some bad ones, and cheap ones, still make big money.

UFL players make maybe $65k a year. About the same as any other job of, call it, experienced, physical labor, where injury is possible (construction for example). The ownership group says they can't afford more, and the league barely breaks even, and they may be right. From what I can gather CFL players make noticeably more, with the top players making well over double that (UFL pay is fairly equal per position). At some point the UFL may sell limited partnership/franchises, similar to how MLS operates, which could bring in more cash. Time will tell. MLS is a good guideline because they actually lost money for several years, millions, before slowly starting to break even, find their sweet spot, and start turning a profit.

The rookie contracts for the #1 OA pick vs lower drafted players in the 1st round is profound & ridiculous.

For example, Ward's rookie contract is $48m/4 yrs with a $32m signing bonus! (can you believe that; $32m for just signing the dotted line!).

OTOH, Dart's contract (25th OA) is $16m/4 yrs with a $8.9m signing bonus.

Both players, being 1st round picks, get a sweet 5th yr option with their deals. Lol.

The real bargain in this year's draft was Shough. Drafted early in the 2nd round his rookie contract is only $10m/4 yrs with a $4.4m signing bonus and no 5th yr option.

The irony of all this? Dart outperformed Ward by leaps & bounds, and Shough outperformed Dart! (2nd in ROY voting).

 

[movingtarget]

To me, Prescott, Herbert and Lawrence are not Tier 1. In pure physical talent? Sure. But their inability to lead their teams to important victories, over and over, knocks them from that ledge.

On the flip side of that, arguments can be made that Purdy and Hurts are Tier 2.

It wasn't just the Raiders OL, Geno Smith was absolutely terrible belongs in Tier 6 or 7.

Shedeur gets too much credit, and Gabriel too much blame for where they are. Like Herbert (and Dak) the media loves Shedeur. Also, Carson Wentz gets somewhat of a pass as he was pretty much injured the entire time he was wearing a jersey. I honestly think he should retire.

As to the SF 49ers, wasn't 2024 their rebuild year? With this past season the first step forward? Now only some holes need filling? (OL mostly, but Shanahan isn't too big on drafting high or spending in FA on the OL).

Purdy and Hurts are definitely tier 2. don't agree with their QB ratings at all.
49ers will need two more drafts and FA to plug all their gaps. They are one of the oldest teams in the league. Their four best players are over 30 and all got injured last season. CMC about to turn 30. Their best WR was Jennings who they will lose who is also not a WR1 and also a vet which is why they had to use CMC so much. Pearsall has been injury prone for two seasons, their number one pick. Their biggest issue for most of the Shanahan era is that they don't draft well in the early rounds compared to teams like the Chiefs, Eagles, Seattle and the Rams. They got lucky drafting Purdy, you could argue that he may have even saved Shanahan's and Lynch's jobs.

 

[movingtarget]

49ers will be good, but don't you think they need fresh blood at receiver and perhaps running back? One of the reason the Rams do so well on offense against the Seahawks is the ability of their receivers, especially Nacua, to get open (sometimes just a small window) and make the really tough catches. Although that's also about Stafford being able to get it into those small windows. And as you said, it's unclear how much McCaffery will have left in the tank. He's still be able to pile up a lot of yards, especially in the passing game. But we saw how much of a difference it makes having a back with explosiveness at the line of scrimmage and speed on the outside, like Walker, against the best teams and tough defenses.

Definitely a need at WR or two and back up RB. Brian Robinson wasn't the answer. See what the rookie Jordan James can do. O line needs a refresh and the defense is still full of holes compared to the Rams and Seattle who have drafted well.

 

[SHAD0W93]

View: https://youtu.be/Ku8_gHT8Ygs?si=btm3TjCe8r_sfxFm

 

[Nomad]

They got lucky drafting Purdy, you could argue that he may have even saved Shanahan's and Lynch's jobs.

Very lucky in drafting & developing him. If you look at the Tier 2 QB list from The Atlantic (Daniels, Herbert, Goff, Hurts, Mayfield, Prescott, Love, Stroud & Purdy), it's all 1st rounders except him, Hurts (2nd rd) & Prescott (4th rd).

But there's chinks in his armor with his injuries. Missing almost half the season with the toe injury is not good for your franchise QB. The 9ers were also very lucky they had Jones to bail them out. Many teams aren't as fortunate to have a high-quality backup like that (see the Bengals & Commanders. Lol).

And if Jones leaves to pursue a starting job somewhere, their QB room at the present does not look good. Adrian Martinez had some stints on a few teams as a PS guy, but as a pure dual-threat in college, he's a better runner than passer. His future in the NFL right now seems to be a candidate for practice squads.

Rouke has NFL caliber size & is a better passer than Martinez, but he's immobile & pretty much restricted as a pocket passer. Plus he has a bad knee now with the ACL injury which could make him even more immobile.

 

[Nomad]

View: https://youtu.be/Ku8_gHT8Ygs?si=btm3TjCe8r_sfxFm

So they're saying Big Ben is a bad person & bad teammate, and that should derail his HOF chances? With over 64,000 yds passing (7th all time), 418 TDs, passer rating of 94 & 2xSB winner, I'd be very surprised if he didn't get in.

 

[SHAD0W93]

So they're saying Big Ben is a bad person & bad teammate, and that should derail his HOF chances? With over 64,000 yds passing (7th all time), 418 TDs, passer rating of 94 & 2xSB winner, I'd be very surprised if he didn't get in.

More he’ll get in, just not first ballot and have to wait. Which with his sexual allegations might have made it hard anyways. Just goes to show how much Tomlin was keeping a lid on everything in the building.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

No kidding about Tomlin. Now that he's gone, the supports holding up the creaky facade are gone, and the ugliness comes through.

With Big Ben, he'll likely get in eventually. But I also wonder if we're at a point where the voters look at big numbers from career stats, and take into consideration things like 17 game seasons, better training, medicine, facilities, better everything else than years ago, plus a pass-heavy league, and aren't as impressed? I mean, look at the all-time passing yards leaders. It's loaded with guys who played in the last 20 years. If we flip this around, Joe Montana threw for 4,000 less career yards than Kirk Cousins. But get this, Kirk has thrown for double the yards Roger Staubach did. and Kirk is still playing. Geno Smith will likely pass Staubach if he plays at all this year!

 

[SHAD0W93]

No kidding about Tomlin. Now that he's gone, the supports holding up the creaky facade are gone, and the ugliness comes through.

With Big Ben, he'll likely get in eventually. But I also wonder if we're at a point where the voters look at big numbers from career stats, and take into consideration things like 17 game seasons, better training, medicine, facilities, better everything else than years ago, plus a pass-heavy league, and aren't as impressed? I mean, look at the all-time passing yards leaders. It's loaded with guys who played in the last 20 years. If we flip this around, Joe Montana threw for 4,000 less career yards than Kirk Cousins. But get this, Kirk has thrown for double the yards Roger Staubach did. and Kirk is still playing. Geno Smith will likely pass Staubach if he plays at all this year!

They might start factoring it for all the current and future players. Past, present, and future shouldn’t be penalized with the rule change but maybe they’ll start breaking it up by quarter centuries. This issue goes for all sports though.

 

[movingtarget]

GM Jon-Eric Sullivan says Dolphins 'getting close' to decision on QB Tua Tagovailoa's future in Miami

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I cannot possibly imagine they will hold onto him, even with the cap hit they will get cutting him. New GM, new HC. Now is the time to release him, accept they will be terrible in 2026 and it will be a total rebuild year, and get ready to draft one of the many QBs that will enter the 2027 draft, when a handful of potential NFL starters will declare. This will give them a good chance to look at Ewers, see if he can really step up, or at the very least be a bridge QB for a year or two until they find their guy. And Zach Wilson a backup with starter experience.

 

[Sciatic]

They might start factoring it for all the current and future players. Past, present, and future shouldn’t be penalized with the rule change but maybe they’ll start breaking it up by quarter centuries. This issue goes for all sports though.

Certainly all sports evolve from era to era that makes it hard to compare. But it's much harder to depend on statistics to judge all-time performance in a sport like football than a sport like baseball. Consider the rule changes that gives QBs so much more protection; and even receivers--though their risk has increased somewhat by the number of passes thrown, are at least protected from Jack Tatum-level headhunting. It's true that it's now difficult to compare starting pitcher stats to earlier eras because of analytics-driven increase in use of relief pitchers. Which I happen to loathe

 

[Nomad]

With Big Ben, he'll likely get in eventually. But I also wonder if we're at a point where the voters look at big numbers from career stats, and take into consideration things like 17 game seasons, better training, medicine, facilities, better everything else than years ago, plus a pass-heavy league, and aren't as impressed? I mean, look at the all-time passing yards leaders. It's loaded with guys who played in the last 20 years. If we flip this around, Joe Montana threw for 4,000 less career yards than Kirk Cousins. But get this, Kirk has thrown for double the yards Roger Staubach did. and Kirk is still playing. Geno Smith will likely pass Staubach if he plays at all this year!

Big Ben's last season is when the league went to 17 games (2021) So, basically a 16 game schedule for his whole 18 yr career - same as Montana.

On the plus side for Big Ben is the several 4000 + yd seasons, 13-10 playoff record & the 2 SBs. Also, his career comp pct, Y/A & passer rating are similar to Montana. On the negative side, Big Ben was never league MVP while Montana has two.

In fact, most HOF QBs - certainly not all - are league MVPs to go along with their SB title(s). Even Marino, who has no SB titles (only one appearance) was MVP in 1984 consequently selected to the HOF.

IMO, league MVP should be the #1 criteria for determining HOF QBs. It's the highest honor a player can receive & automatically puts you into an elite category. And it's something that's measured exclusively to that QB's era that he played in. And some HOFers/future HOFers have not one but multiple MVPs to their name (with Peyton Manning having an insane 5 MVPs!).

 

[Nomad]

This will give them a good chance to look at Ewers, see if he can really step up, or at the very least be a bridge QB for a year or two until they find their guy. And Zach Wilson a backup with starter experience.

Do you think Ewers might actually be their guy? McDaniel seemed to think so or he wouldn't have promoted Ewers to backup over Wilson, and eventual starter when Tua was benched.

Ewers' 3 starts there at the end of season wasn't all that bad going 1-2. His best game was the 20-17 upset of the Buccaneers, where he threw the ball very well though given a very limited number of passes:

Quinn Ewers 2025 Stats per Game - NFL - ESPN

The 2025 NFL season stats per game for Quinn Ewers of the Miami Dolphins on ESPN. Includes full stats, per opponent, for regular and postseason.

www.espn.com

Though Ewers comes from the infamous 7th rd, he had a 6.15 prospect grade ("Good backup with the potential to develope into starter") & a 3rd round draft projection. Why he fell so much at draft time is anyone's guess but GMs were seeing something they didn't like. Some of the strikes I see against him is he's undersized at 209 (6-2) & needs to bulk up, and he's not very dynamic showing no rushing ability in his 3 yrs as a starter at Texas (though he's not slow running a 4.74).

 

[Nomad]

Derek Carr: I'd only unretire to play for Super Bowl contender

LOL

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I laughed at that too. Some Raider fans love the guy, but he's been average for years, and increasingly banged up even though he seems to think he's the same guy he was a decade ago. But why would anyone sign him? Maybe partway through a season when their starter goes down, then their backup guy goes down... Those teams aren't going to a Super Bowl.

Raiders promote Rob Leonard to DC. There go the rumors Gym Shorts would get the job.

 

[movingtarget]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4dbcM9t-3E

 

[movingtarget]

Seahawks hiring 49ers tight ends coach Brian Fleury as offensive coordinator

Raiders set to hire Seahawks QBs coach Andrew Janocko as offensive coordinator

 

[Nomad]

I laughed at that too. Some Raider fans love the guy, but he's been average for years, and increasingly banged up even though he seems to think he's the same guy he was a decade ago. But why would anyone sign him? Maybe partway through a season when their starter goes down, then their backup guy goes down... Those teams aren't going to a Super Bowl.

Wasn't he the last QB to take the Raiders to the playoffs? And what was really going on with Carr & those 9 seasons he played there? Statistically he was far from average. I was looking at his numbers there: 35,000 yds passing, 65 comp pct, 2-1 TD/INT ratio, 93 passer rating & four 4000 + yd seasons. A QB is far from average if he's throwing for 4000 + yds & 93 ratings (I didn't realize he was a high 2nd rd pick, and the scouting reports say he has elite passing skills).

However, only two winning seasons in those 9 years? Only two playoff appearances?(he played in only one because of injury) where he's 0-1. What gives Alpe? Bad defenses? Not scoring enough TDs? Bad coaching decisions? Why were the Raiders so quick to pull the trigger on him? (I don't know all the details, but maybe they should have kept him?).

The Vikings & Jets have expressed an interest if he decides to "unretire." At 34 he's still young enough play a full season, especially when you have a 37 yr old with a bad back winning MVP & a 42 yr old that played an entire 17 game season unscathed. Lol.

Former NFL QB's comeback comment is good news for Vikings, bad news for Jets | Sporting News

Former NFL quarterback Derek Carr admitted he is thinking about coming out of retirement, but also included in his comments are what he's looking for in his next NFL team, which is good news for the Minnesota Vikings and bad news for the New York Jets.

www.sportingnews.com

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

However, only two winning seasons in those 9 years? Only two playoff appearances?(he played in only one because of injury) where he's 0-1. What gives Alpe? Bad defenses? Not scoring enough TDs? Bad coaching decisions? Why were the Raiders so quick to pull the trigger on him? (I don't know all the details, but maybe they should have kept him?).

To answer your questions. When games were on the line he was just as apt to throwing a bad interception as he was an impressive TD to win. He could trick you into thinking he was elite in one game, then right when it looked true, he'd have a horrible game at the worst time.

Carr broke his leg at the end of the 2016 season and was more mobile before that. This was right when the Raiders were quite good, though the OL and DL were aging. The next season his hand picked guy became OC in Todd Browning, and the team went 6-10. That was really the start of the great/bad cycle of games/drives/throws with him. It was maddening to watch.

Yes, the Raiders had several below average to bad defenses in those years. Blame Jon Gruden for trading away Khalil Mack, then wasting the draft picks they got for him, plus his own bad high picks (Cle Ferrell, Damon Arnette, Alex Leatherwood, Jonathan Abram. Gruden said he's more to blame than Mayock for the bad picks).

Too many coaches didn't help. When Gruden 2.0 happened, Carr actually worked well in Gruden's system. The problem is, Gruden was a horrible GM, and the underqualified Mike Mayock wasn't any better. But Gruden slowly did get the team on the right track, they were headed in the right direction by his coaching, and Carr playing okay, right when Gruden was ousted. Raiders went to the playoffs, and almost upended the Bengals, who lost the SB to the Rams.

The Raiders absolutely should have kept him anyway. Had Josh McDaniels and Dave Ziegler been talking with Carr and his agent all along Carr would have signed a team-friendly extension, and stayed with the Raiders to his retirement. But the two of them botched the whole thing, let Carr walk, and the Saints paid him a lot of money. Can't blame Carr for that. For some reason McD thought Jimmy Garoppolo would be better, but Jimmy's body was trashed, he failed his physical, the whole thing was a disaster, and the team got worse and worse.

If I were him, and the Saints let him walk, I'd seriously consider signing with the Vikings. Carr is a very good person also I should note. A positive vet in any locker room.

 

[Nomad]

Great commentary. You're definitely the guy in the know on the Raiders.

Too funny: No one wants Tua & Miami can't afford to cut him. Looks like they're stuck with him & if Ewers (or another QB) beats him out, he'll be riding the bench as the highest paid backup in league history. Lol

View: https://youtu.be/tkab0kVMgrM?si=wxmeARgqJ0Cw_VA6

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Keep in mind, my dad was a Raider fan going back to Daryle Lamonica. So it's in my DNA.

That guy is right about some of these insane contracts QBs get. It's such a huge roll of the dice. And it's not just Tua, Watson, toss in Murray like he said. We've listed big money QBs who don't deliver quite a few times now.

This is the last year on CJ Stroud's contract, with an option to pay him $27m next season. Or, you negotiate a deal that pays him, what, $40-50m a year? More? And what about Bryce Young? Making $12m this year, a team option for $27.5m next year. What do you do if you're David Tepper? They gave up a heap of picks and players to get him.

A year+ from now we'll be asking these questions about Penix, McCarthy, Nix. But also Caleb, Daniels, Maye. Are any of these guys "worth" a six-year $400m deal? Five years at $70m per year?

Let's not also forget the Browns are paying Deshaun Watson effectively $80.4m this season, the dead cap hit is $131m if they cut him. And GM/VP Andrew Barry will make about $7m this year for making it all happen. But hey, at least the Browns fired Kevin Stefanski.

 

[Nomad]

I vaguely remember Lamonica as the bulk of his career was played when I was in my pre-teens & just started playing peewee football. The guy I remember the most was Snake Stabler (the most successful Raider QB?). In fact, my YT recommended feed had a Stabler highlight video. What a QB - that guy had an arm & could pick apart the snot out of defenses throwing to Casper, Blintenkoff, Branch, etc. And what a winner - SB title, 5 straight AFCCG appearances. And what's amazing is he came from Bear Bryant's wishbone offense at Bama. Lol. You really have to wonder if the Raiders could return to those glory years that they had with the Snake & John Madden running the show.

I don't think any of those guys are worth 5 yrs/$70m...or $60m....$50m or whatever big money their agents will be demanding. IMO, they're worth Baker Mayfield type-money at best. (3 yrs/$33m?). I mean what have any of those guys really done? They're all overrated based on their draft selection. Stroud hasn't done anything noteworthy. Big deal that he wins a playoff game every year (wow...let's do backflips & cartwheels in celebration. Lol). How about a SB or conference championship appearance? Lol. And don't forget he's a #2 OA pick. And Young is a huge underachiever for a #1 OA, and besides he's too small to be an effective starting NFL QB in this era.

Then you have some potential injury busts with MPJ & Daniels...especially MPJ. Don't get me wrong - I like Daniels a lot but this past season was a disaster. Being a dual-threat with a heavy run package, you can't miss more than half the season with assorted injuries in just your 2nd year & not create a big concern as to your durability. Nix, Williams & Maye are showing some promise, but can they duplicate a similar season this year? And Nix now potentially has a bad ankle having surgery on it. Just because some of these guys have a good season or two making the postseason, their agents think they're worth Mahomes-type money. Lol. These guys haven't done anything. Mahomes has won 3 SBs, numerous AFCCG appearances & 2 MVPs. Now that's noteworthy & impressive, and someone simply getting the job done that he's getting paid big bucks for.

 

[movingtarget]

Dolphins release five-time All-Pro WR Tyreek Hill in slew of cost-saving moves