National Football League

[Alpe d'Huez]

My concern is that if they rushed his surgery (arguable, lots of medical debate about this) with the intention to get him back as absolutely fast as possible, as he IS their franchise. Now let's pretend Kelce doesn't retire. There could be even more pressure to get Mahomes back by week 1 to try to get another ring while the Kelce window is open. I'm sure they will find medical experts also to validate that he's good to go if all that is the case. Jerry Rice did (and promptly re-injured his knee, later admitting it was a big mistake, returning 15 weeks after ACL and MCL surgery), Adrian Peterson had the same tear, came back after 37 weeks, and ran for over 2,000 yards the next season. But it's usually 40-50 weeks, though every year it inches a little quicker, depending on the player. If I do the math correct, Mahomes would return about the same as Peterson.

Another factor is this: Some players tear an ACL and come back the next season, and while they don't get hurt, they are pretty much average, or don't look like their old selves until several games in, often the next season. This is likely to hurt a player like a WR or DB, or edge rusher than a QB, but it gives you pause.

Either way, this upcoming season will be a huge test for Mahomes, but also Reid, and the rest of their offence.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Dolphins Exploring Trade for Promising Seahawks QB Jalen Milroe - Miami Today

The Miami Dolphins are in need of a new starting quarterback for the upcoming season, but their options in free agency and the draft are limited. As a result, the team is exploring a potential trade with the Seattle Seahawks for promising young QB Jalen Milroe, who was selected in the third...

nationaltoday.com

Probably a good move for Milroe since Darnold has firmly established himself as the franchise QB for years to come. And they seem content with Lock as the backup. Milroe will need time & patience to develop into a starter that he was drafted in the 3rd rd for.

This could be good for Milroe indeed. But it also means Miami could head into 2026 with: Quinn Ewers, Zach Wilson, Cam Miller, and Jalen Milroe. This is presuming they deal/cut Tua (99% likely). I assume they would also cut Wilson? They are unlikely to cut Miller as he is another dual threat, and a guy the Raiders were hoping to groom (at least as a future backup) until the Fins stole him off the Raider practice squad. Which brings up another point. If Miami pushes Miller to the practice squad, someone else could easily grab him, making the entire signing of Miller pointless by GM Jon-Eric Sullivan.

I don't see Seattle wanting Ewers or Zach in a trade, though Cam Miller could get thrown in.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Shadow, are you saying he was showing a downward trend in the two seasons prior to this most recent season? Because he's still ranked as a unanimous "Tier 1" QB.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6514160/2025/08/11/nfl-qb-rankings-tiers-2025-jackson-daniels/

Although Mahomes lost in the SB to the Eagles in the 2024 season, they went 15-2 & he had a career high 7 4th QT comebacks/GWD. Here's the write up from the GMs, HCs & OCs that voted him a Tier 1:

"Voters still consider Mahomes the best even though others have surpassed him statistically. "I think Mahomes is the best quarterback to ever live," an offensive coordinator said, "but the gap is smaller than it was a year ago."

This is Mahomes' fifth season as a unanimous Tier 1 selection. Only Aaron Rodgers, with six, has more unanimous selections since QB Tiers debuted in 2014.

"Mahomes is the best quarterback in the world," a GM said. "Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson had better individual seasons. In fairness, the infrastructure around Patrick has eroded."

Mahomes led the league last season in game-winning drives (seven) and fourth-quarter comeback victories (five), per Pro Football Reference. Both were single-season career highs as Kansas City went in games decided by eight points or less.

"Mahomes has the Brady seat now, until someone proves otherwise," an offensive coach said. "Last year, I saw a headline saying something to the effect of, 'Mahomes' worst year to date, and the Chiefs are undefeated.' This is when this guy is too good for his own good."The Chiefs' shrinking victory margins correlate with the shrinking gap between Mahomes, Burrow, Allen and Jackson.

"It would probably be Mahomes first just because he can beat you so many different ways," a defensive coordinator said. "He ain't fast, but he runs on you. He throws it from all over the place. I hate facing Lamar now that they have Derrick Henry. I hate to see Josh Allen, and then Joe (Burrow) has great targets, but you can get after him."

Mahomes ranked 10th in EPA per pass play, 17th in passer rating (93.5) and 26th in yards per attempt (6.8) last season.

"Patrick is obviously still a 1, but he is winning out of need at the end of games," a head coach said. "That is what it's about, but Burrow, Lamar and Josh played better than him in quarters one through four."

No voters came close to placing Mahomes in any other tier.
"Criticizing him is like walking into the Sistine Chapel and saying, 'I like Michelangelo's drawings, but his sense of color is off,'" a defensive coach with AFC West experience said."

The new Tier list will be coming out this August evaluating performances from this past season. I don't think one bad year will knock him down to Tier 2...but I don't know (?). Rodgers' decline from Tier 1 to currently Tier 3 occurred over several seasons of a steady decline in performance.

We’ve been over this many times and yes, Mahomes has gotten worse and worse the last three seasons. Some of it is due to the pieces around him but he’s been making more mistakes/misplays as well.



For name value alone he’ll most likely stay in tier 1. With the game close late or needing something crazy he can still make magic. Like that fourth and 20 or whatever it was against the Bills was crazy. No one has a better chance of converting that. But he’s been unable to do that over a whole game and sometimes even for a whole half (especially this past season) for a while. Maybe Nagy really was bringing the offense down quite a bit. Mahomes downward trend started when Nagy really took over as OC.

 

[movingtarget]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Hau-dH0q7s

 

[movingtarget]

If Mahomes continues the three season downward trend, it sucks the injury will stay hovering over his head. I hope he doesn’t rush back and taking time can even help him improve his pocket passing. I’d also be worried about another injury if he rushes back and doesn’t get enough game speed. I don’t know the statistics but it seems like more and more are getting injured in preseason and first couple weeks. It’ll be interesting to see if he goes to OTAs.

Interesting that the Chiefs starters always play the preseason. Most other teams don't except a few downs maybe in the third preseason game. Usually it's more for getting a better look at rookies and fringe players. Reid also said that the Chiefs training sessions taper off as the season goes on , to keep something for the playoffs That is also different to many other teams but up until now it's a philosophy that has worked for them. Most of the draft experts are expecting them to take an RB early in the draft especially with their cap problems and not being able to spend up too much in FA. I wouldn't be surprised if they took two but they will have a few holes to fill. TE and WR also.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Mahomes downward trend started when Nagy really took over as OC.

Which is why I'm curious what Eric Bienemy can do now that he's returned. It's a real question mark though since Eric hasn't done anything of substance since he left either. Can they all make magic together again?

 

[SHAD0W93]

Which is why I'm curious what Eric Bienemy can do now that he's returned. It's a real question mark though since Eric hasn't done anything of substance since he left either. Can they all make magic together again?

If the offense improves Nagy should never get another job again. Wright thinks Chiefs would be crazy to take an olineman at #9 but there’s not any good replacements unless chiefs go for their backups to start. Wouldn’t be surprised if they take a receiver or defensive player.

 

[SHAD0W93]

https://community.raptive.com/nflmemes/jets-are-placing-the-franchise-tag-on-rb-breece-hall/112251/post?u=nfl_memes&fbclid=IwdGRjcAQUG-pleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBzcnRjBmFwcF9pZAo2NjI4NTY4Mzc5AAEe7Uf-jzUGJPjLyJRge3RzVRejR0Wkl-F5ZwXycDW0QpthJQrjB_WlRxcih_Y_aem_46Xm-d8Q-K_LBweNdoC-TA

 

[Nomad]

We’ve been over this many times and yes, Mahomes has gotten worse and worse the last three seasons. Some of it is due to the pieces around him but he’s been making more mistakes/misplays as well.

Not according to total QBR - you better take a look at this Shadow:

Patrick Mahomes Career Stats - NFL - ESPN

Complete career NFL stats for Kansas City Chiefs Quarterback Patrick Mahomes on ESPN. Includes scoring, rushing, defensive and receiving stats.

www.espn.com

He finished this season with a QBR of 68.5, 6th best in the league, which was higher than the rating he had in the 2023 & 2024 seasons, and also higher than the 2021 season. Granted, his two MVPs seasons were off the chart crazy - 80.3 in 2018 & 79.0 in 2022. I believe that 80 is one of the highest ever recorded (50 is average & 70 is consider elite).

Here's the final QBR rankings for 2025 where he finished 6th - ahead of guys like Allen, Darnold, Herbert, Mayfield, Nix, Goff, Hurts, Stroud, Nix, Lawrence, Williams, etc.

2025 NFL Season Leaders Total QBR | ESPN

Visit ESPN to view NFL Total QBR for the current and previous seasons

www.espn.com

 

[Nomad]

My concern is that if they rushed his surgery (arguable, lots of medical debate about this) with the intention to get him back as absolutely fast as possible, as he IS their franchise. Now let's pretend Kelce doesn't retire. There could be even more pressure to get Mahomes back by week 1 to try to get another ring while the Kelce window is open. I'm sure they will find medical experts also to validate that he's good to go if all that is the case. Jerry Rice did (and promptly re-injured his knee, later admitting it was a big mistake, returning 15 weeks after ACL and MCL surgery), Adrian Peterson had the same tear, came back after 37 weeks, and ran for over 2,000 yards the next season. But it's usually 40-50 weeks, though every year it inches a little quicker, depending on the player. If I do the math correct, Mahomes would return about the same as Peterson.

Another factor is this: Some players tear an ACL and come back the next season, and while they don't get hurt, they are pretty much average, or don't look like their old selves until several games in, often the next season. This is likely to hurt a player like a WR or DB, or edge rusher than a QB, but it gives you pause.

Either way, this upcoming season will be a huge test for Mahomes, but also Reid, and the rest of their offence.

There's some previous cases with other franchise QBs to compare with. Burrow tore his ACL & MCL (plus some secondary PCL & meniscus damge) in week #11 of his rookie season (2020). He had surgery in early December. The rehab must have gone exceptionally well because come week #1 of the next season he was good to go. And what a year he had - 4600 yds passing, 34 TDs, 108 Rtg & a trip to the SB! (I don't think he even wore a brace on the knee).

Murray's was a significantly longer rehab. He tore his ACL in November of the 2022 season & had surgery in December but started off the next season on the PUP list. It wasn't until November that he returned to the starting lineup. However, his performance didn't seem to take any setbacks including his running skills. In fact, 2024 was his 2nd best season statistically - both passing & rushing (didn't look like he lost any speed on his runs). But the team wasn't that good finishing 8-9 & missing the playoffs.

So, Mahomes needs to rehab under the specialist(s) that Burrow used.

 

[Nomad]

If Miami pushes Miller to the practice squad, someone else could easily grab him, making the entire signing of Miller pointless by GM Jon-Eric Sullivan.

Great point. If Miller is backup material, then he needs to put on the 53 as either the backup or QB3 (if they decide to carry 3 QBs). Otherwise, he's going to be one of these journeyman PS guys. Lol. I'll tell you one thing though, he's better than UDFA Max Brosmer, who not only made the Viking's 53 but ended up starting 2 games!

What's wrong with the Raider organization? They draft Miller in the 6th rd & he's gone? Riley Leonard was drafted in the 6th & he's on the roster with Indy. Graham Mertz was drafted in the 6th & he's on the roster with Houston (I know...Graham who?). What kind of clowns are running the show there in Vegas? Lol.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Not according to total QBR - you better take a look at this Shadow:

Patrick Mahomes Career Stats - NFL - ESPN

Complete career NFL stats for Kansas City Chiefs Quarterback Patrick Mahomes on ESPN. Includes scoring, rushing, defensive and receiving stats.

www.espn.com

He finished this season with a QBR of 68.5, 6th best in the league, which was higher than the rating he had in the 2023 & 2024 seasons, and also higher than the 2021 season. Granted, his two MVPs seasons were off the chart crazy - 80.3 in 2018 & 79.0 in 2022. I believe that 80 is one of the highest ever recorded (50 is average & 70 is consider elite).

Here's the final QBR rankings for 2025 where he finished 6th - ahead of guys like Allen, Darnold, Herbert, Mayfield, Nix, Goff, Hurts, Stroud, Nix, Lawrence, Williams, etc.

2025 NFL Season Leaders Total QBR | ESPN

Visit ESPN to view NFL Total QBR for the current and previous seasons

www.espn.com

Looking at stats is why you were surprised by this season.

 

[Nomad]

True on his passer rating & lack of 4th QT comebacks/GWDs but the QBR is really messing things up (I didn't think he was 6th best with the terrible season he had).

 

[movingtarget]

Colts apply transition tag to QB Daniel Jones

Bears Pro Bowl center Drew Dalman expected to retire after five NFL seasons

Cardinals inform QB Kyler Murray they will release him at start of new league year

 

[SHAD0W93]

True on his passer rating & lack of 4th QT comebacks/GWDs but the QBR is really messing things up (I didn't think he was 6th best with the terrible season he had).

For that, he and the offense when everything was working looked and played better than 2024. There’s no denying that. Offense took a step forward while defense and special teams took a step back. Their offense altogether at every position just kept making mistakes. Cut those and they’re most likely playing for a wild card spot even after Mahomes got injured. Cut that and no drop off for defense and special teams and they’re probably playing for the one seed. Mahomes was just missing a lot of the deep throws and routine plays that usually he makes and all their penalties didn’t help.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

QBR is only one metric, and even then no one can really tell you how it works. It often produces bizarre rankings, such as rating a quarterback with multiple turnovers higher than one with a clean game, or heavily punishing players for minor errors while rewarding others for minor positive plays. I don't like only referencing it when speaking about QBs, even though ESPN makes it sound like it's the only metric that matters.

I'm curious where Kyler Murray ends up, and who pays him. There are definitely people out there who think he still has it, he just needs the right team. We might find out.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

What's wrong with the Raider organization? They draft Miller in the 6th rd & he's gone? Riley Leonard was drafted in the 6th & he's on the roster with Indy. Graham Mertz was drafted in the 6th & he's on the roster with Houston (I know...Graham who?). What kind of clowns are running the show there in Vegas? Lol.

Well, the guy in charge was promptly fired (Pete Carroll), that's what happened. Pete frequently protected "his" guys, at the expense of other players. He kept putting Geno Smith out there, having him throw to Tyler Lockett, to pad their stats, or something, and wouldn't put rookies in, hardly at all. In the end Geno was benched at the last minute before the final game, but not put on IR, and Cam Miller wasn't elevated, not that Pete would have played him because he didn't like playing rookies at all, even late in the season.

I don't think anyone was thinking Cam Miller was going to end up winning MVPs, but he has a good head on his shoulders, and despite not being huge, a dual threat with a decent arm. He looked good in one pre-season game, and bad in another. Tom Brady was apparently a fan of his, which helped lead to his getting drafted. There is every reason to think he can be a backup QB in this league. I can't help think letting Miami steal him was one more thing that helped Pete get fired.