National Football League

[Alpe d'Huez]

My concern is that if they rushed his surgery (arguable, lots of medical debate about this) with the intention to get him back as absolutely fast as possible, as he IS their franchise. Now let's pretend Kelce doesn't retire. There could be even more pressure to get Mahomes back by week 1 to try to get another ring while the Kelce window is open. I'm sure they will find medical experts also to validate that he's good to go if all that is the case. Jerry Rice did (and promptly re-injured his knee, later admitting it was a big mistake, returning 15 weeks after ACL and MCL surgery), Adrian Peterson had the same tear, came back after 37 weeks, and ran for over 2,000 yards the next season. But it's usually 40-50 weeks, though every year it inches a little quicker, depending on the player. If I do the math correct, Mahomes would return about the same as Peterson.

Another factor is this: Some players tear an ACL and come back the next season, and while they don't get hurt, they are pretty much average, or don't look like their old selves until several games in, often the next season. This is likely to hurt a player like a WR or DB, or edge rusher than a QB, but it gives you pause.

Either way, this upcoming season will be a huge test for Mahomes, but also Reid, and the rest of their offence.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Dolphins Exploring Trade for Promising Seahawks QB Jalen Milroe - Miami Today

The Miami Dolphins are in need of a new starting quarterback for the upcoming season, but their options in free agency and the draft are limited. As a result, the team is exploring a potential trade with the Seattle Seahawks for promising young QB Jalen Milroe, who was selected in the third...

nationaltoday.com

Probably a good move for Milroe since Darnold has firmly established himself as the franchise QB for years to come. And they seem content with Lock as the backup. Milroe will need time & patience to develop into a starter that he was drafted in the 3rd rd for.

This could be good for Milroe indeed. But it also means Miami could head into 2026 with: Quinn Ewers, Zach Wilson, Cam Miller, and Jalen Milroe. This is presuming they deal/cut Tua (99% likely). I assume they would also cut Wilson? They are unlikely to cut Miller as he is another dual threat, and a guy the Raiders were hoping to groom (at least as a future backup) until the Fins stole him off the Raider practice squad. Which brings up another point. If Miami pushes Miller to the practice squad, someone else could easily grab him, making the entire signing of Miller pointless by GM Jon-Eric Sullivan.

I don't see Seattle wanting Ewers or Zach in a trade, though Cam Miller could get thrown in.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Shadow, are you saying he was showing a downward trend in the two seasons prior to this most recent season? Because he's still ranked as a unanimous "Tier 1" QB.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6514160/2025/08/11/nfl-qb-rankings-tiers-2025-jackson-daniels/

Although Mahomes lost in the SB to the Eagles in the 2024 season, they went 15-2 & he had a career high 7 4th QT comebacks/GWD. Here's the write up from the GMs, HCs & OCs that voted him a Tier 1:

"Voters still consider Mahomes the best even though others have surpassed him statistically. "I think Mahomes is the best quarterback to ever live," an offensive coordinator said, "but the gap is smaller than it was a year ago."

This is Mahomes' fifth season as a unanimous Tier 1 selection. Only Aaron Rodgers, with six, has more unanimous selections since QB Tiers debuted in 2014.

"Mahomes is the best quarterback in the world," a GM said. "Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson had better individual seasons. In fairness, the infrastructure around Patrick has eroded."

Mahomes led the league last season in game-winning drives (seven) and fourth-quarter comeback victories (five), per Pro Football Reference. Both were single-season career highs as Kansas City went in games decided by eight points or less.

"Mahomes has the Brady seat now, until someone proves otherwise," an offensive coach said. "Last year, I saw a headline saying something to the effect of, 'Mahomes' worst year to date, and the Chiefs are undefeated.' This is when this guy is too good for his own good."The Chiefs' shrinking victory margins correlate with the shrinking gap between Mahomes, Burrow, Allen and Jackson.

"It would probably be Mahomes first just because he can beat you so many different ways," a defensive coordinator said. "He ain't fast, but he runs on you. He throws it from all over the place. I hate facing Lamar now that they have Derrick Henry. I hate to see Josh Allen, and then Joe (Burrow) has great targets, but you can get after him."

Mahomes ranked 10th in EPA per pass play, 17th in passer rating (93.5) and 26th in yards per attempt (6.8) last season.

"Patrick is obviously still a 1, but he is winning out of need at the end of games," a head coach said. "That is what it's about, but Burrow, Lamar and Josh played better than him in quarters one through four."

No voters came close to placing Mahomes in any other tier.
"Criticizing him is like walking into the Sistine Chapel and saying, 'I like Michelangelo's drawings, but his sense of color is off,'" a defensive coach with AFC West experience said."

The new Tier list will be coming out this August evaluating performances from this past season. I don't think one bad year will knock him down to Tier 2...but I don't know (?). Rodgers' decline from Tier 1 to currently Tier 3 occurred over several seasons of a steady decline in performance.

We’ve been over this many times and yes, Mahomes has gotten worse and worse the last three seasons. Some of it is due to the pieces around him but he’s been making more mistakes/misplays as well.



For name value alone he’ll most likely stay in tier 1. With the game close late or needing something crazy he can still make magic. Like that fourth and 20 or whatever it was against the Bills was crazy. No one has a better chance of converting that. But he’s been unable to do that over a whole game and sometimes even for a whole half (especially this past season) for a while. Maybe Nagy really was bringing the offense down quite a bit. Mahomes downward trend started when Nagy really took over as OC.

 

[movingtarget]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Hau-dH0q7s

 

[movingtarget]

If Mahomes continues the three season downward trend, it sucks the injury will stay hovering over his head. I hope he doesn’t rush back and taking time can even help him improve his pocket passing. I’d also be worried about another injury if he rushes back and doesn’t get enough game speed. I don’t know the statistics but it seems like more and more are getting injured in preseason and first couple weeks. It’ll be interesting to see if he goes to OTAs.

Interesting that the Chiefs starters always play the preseason. Most other teams don't except a few downs maybe in the third preseason game. Usually it's more for getting a better look at rookies and fringe players. Reid also said that the Chiefs training sessions taper off as the season goes on , to keep something for the playoffs That is also different to many other teams but up until now it's a philosophy that has worked for them. Most of the draft experts are expecting them to take an RB early in the draft especially with their cap problems and not being able to spend up too much in FA. I wouldn't be surprised if they took two but they will have a few holes to fill. TE and WR also.