Nibali vs. Gesink vs. VDB2: TdF 2012

[theyoungest]

Does this post seem strange to anyone else, except me?

Belgians and Pozzato, what can you say?

 

[Fetisoff]

Belgians and Pozzato, what can you say?

No-no. I meant more like El_pisti "replying" to Pippo_San. Anyway, I'm sure there a couple of people on here who would find that strange, and they'll know exactly what I meant

 

[Christophe]

Are you saying this time around it's his turn??

Well, let's see:
Evans: 2010, elbow
Wiggins: 2011, clavicle
VDB2: 2011, ribs, shoulder, pneumothorax
Gesink: 2011, femur
Menchov: reputation, any major injuries?

So, taking crashes into account, Nibali is the easy favorite to win the tour, with Menchov 2nd. The others crash out of contention, if not out of the race.

 

[Fetisoff]

Well, let's see:
Evans: 2010, elbow
Wiggins: 2011, clavicle
VDB2: 2011, ribs, shoulder, pneumothorax
Gesink: 2011, femur
Menchov: reputation, any major injuries?

So, taking crashes into account, Nibali is the easy favorite to win the tour, with Menchov 2nd. The others crash out of contention, if not out of the race.

I think you forgot Frank Schleck from 2010 as well
And you could add Froome in there too with his weird parasite-worm-brainslug whatever

Who else are we missing here, this could be fun

 

[Christophe]

I think you forgot Frank Schleck from 2010 as well
And you could add Froome in there too with his weird parasite-worm-brainslug whatever

Who else are we missing here, this could be fun

I forgot Gesink's 2009 crash, wrist. He's a goner for sure!

 

[theyoungest]

I forgot Gesink's 2009 crash, wrist. He's a goner for sure!

One upside: he can't break his femur anymore, because it's now 100 % pure steel

 

[Gubby Allen]

Would like to have seen Sanchez in this poll and I fancy they'll all be in the top 10, injuries permitting. I think JVDB will do best of these, finishing up maybe 4th.

 

[Bobby G]

No chance Nibali for me. On big climbs (of which there are enough in this tour) I haven't seen Nibali ride really well since the Giro last year. Even that weren't great. Given both Gesinks and VDBs apparent increase in performance against the clock, I'd say Nibali may struggle to top 10 this year.

One thing in his favor though, there are a lot of downhill finishes.

VDB my personal favourite at this point in time, though really need to wait until Sunday to judge properly. Need to see how Gesink races in the final 3 days of TDS now that he should've acclimatized to racing again after his altitude training.

 

[Froome19]

No chance Nibali for me. On big climbs (of which there are enough in this tour) I haven't seen Nibali ride really well since the Giro last year. Even that weren't great. Given both Gesinks and VDBs apparent increase in performance against the clock, I'd say Nibali may struggle to top 10 this year.
.

And you have seen Gesink or VDB ride any better on these climbs?

 

[maxmartin]

Have you seen Nibali climb in Tirrento-Adriatcio? Hope he can repeat what Evans did last year and don't take Dauphine too seriuosly, some riders like to hide or intentionally inhibit their form in Dauphine. It is just different style to prepare for the Tour.

No chance Nibali for me. On big climbs (of which there are enough in this tour) I haven't seen Nibali ride really well since the Giro last year. Even that weren't great. Given both Gesinks and VDBs apparent increase in performance against the clock, I'd say Nibali may struggle to top 10 this year.

One thing in his favor though, there are a lot of downhill finishes.

VDB my personal favourite at this point in time, though really need to wait until Sunday to judge properly. Need to see how Gesink races in the final 3 days of TDS now that he should've acclimatized to racing again after his altitude training.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

It just seems to me that Wiggins is a level above these other guys. I suspect that Evans is coming into form on par with Wiggins. To me it's going to be a tight battle for 1-2, and a separate tight battle for 3-6.

In regards to the TT you mean yes
Still awaiting the evidence where he is anyway superior when going up.

Gesink does not do well at 3 week grand tours and should focus on one week tours and hilly classics. The guy just isn't grand tour material. Freire summed it up right saying that while he has the physical strength, he's just clumbsy on a bike and isn't tactically very bright.

His physical build and endurance really makes him a good candidate for GT riding. Giving up the scene due to some bad luck and poor bike handling is stupid.

 

[movingtarget]

In regards to the TT you mean yes
Still awaiting the evidence where he is anyway superior when going up.



His physical build and endurance really makes him a good candidate for GT riding. Giving up the scene due to some bad luck and poor bike handling is stupid.

Sky have looked good in shorter races that don't always contain all of the Tour contenders. Wiggins looks good and has all year but something nags at me about him performing over three weeks. It's not as if Porte and Froome or Rogers cannot get dropped on climbs as we have seen regularly although not so much this year. Gesink is a bit like the Schlecks, he is clumsy but a much better TT rider and on his day, an excellent climber. I think VDB and Gesink have been building well this year without major problems and I would not be surprised if they rode into a podium place. For me as usual Menchov is the real query. You just never know when he is actually trying or not in the pre tour races. Nibali is good but maybe not good enough but he will cause problems for the others with some crazy unexpected attack especially if he just starts going for stage wins. Evans needs some of the other climbers to be in good form to test Wiggins out. The first time trial will be critical for Evans as he can't lose too much time to Wiggins at the end of the first week.

 

[theyoungest]

Have you seen Nibali climb in Tirrento-Adriatcio? Hope he can repeat what Evans did last year and don't take Dauphine too seriuosly, some riders like to hide or intentionally inhibit their form in Dauphine. It is just different style to prepare for the Tour.

Yes, Nibali did climb very well in Tirreno. So did Hoogerland and Nocentini. Such an early season race is more about form than anything else.

 

[Christophe]

In regards to the TT you mean yes
Still awaiting the evidence where he is anyway superior when going up.

Wiggins is not a truly superior climber, but without an Angliru or Zoncolan, he's a good enough climber. Somebody will have to consistently nickel-and-dime him on all these 6-7% slopes, then ride well in the TT.

 

[Bala Verde]

What are VDB2's results in (preferably flatt-ish and >=35K) ITTs?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

What are VDB2's results in (preferably flatt-ish and >=35K) ITTs?

Best was this year. 4th in Algarve and 11th in this years Dauphine. Think Gesink and JvdB are almost equal in ability. Will depend on form who will end higher. And with Gesink's build up he normally can't be as good. But we'll see

 

[maxmartin]

haha after a few days vote, it seems opinion is divided evenly among these 3 riders, nobody get an edge over another before the tour starts

 

[webvan]

Good ITT by Gesink today, looks like Verbier was an accident (impact of altitude training) we'll know more in Sunday evening.

 

[roundabout]

Seems like Nibali would not have an advantage in TT's to say the least.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

What are VDB2's results in (preferably flatt-ish and >=35K) ITTs?

This year i know of 3 ITT's. He did, Algarve, but that was only 25-30 K, where he lost 28 seconds to Martin and Wiggins. He placed 6th.

Then he also did another TT (Pais Vasco?), but forgot where and how long (20k?), where he supposedly was doing very well until the downhill, where he lost a lot of time, because it was wet and he didn't want to take any risks (baring his TDF 2011 crash in mind).

And last weeks 52K ITT Dauphiné result, where he lost a bit over two minutes on Wiggins, and merely half a minute on Evans.

These are this years results, since he started training again on his TT bike.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

This year i know of 3 ITT's. He did, Algarve, but that was only 25-30 K, where he lost 28 seconds to Martin and Wiggins. He placed 6th.

Then he also did another TT (Pais Vasco?), but forgot where and how long (20k?), where he supposedly was doing very well until the downhill, where he lost a lot of time, because it was wet and he didn't want to take any risks (baring his TDF 2011 crash in mind).

And last weeks 52K ITT Dauphiné result, where he lost a bit over two minutes on Wiggins, and merely half a minute on Evans.

These are this years results, since he started training again on his TT bike.

Now this is a huge exaggeration. He did train a lot on his ITT bike before too. I remember the articles I read about it on Belgian sport sites in 2010 and 2011. But not with the same focus as now. He was training on it but with less focus on how his position should be. That's what's new in 2012. Serious windtunnel testing.
Last year he was already decent in the Dauphine ITT 2011, but this year he made even more improvement.

You just made it sound like he never trained on his ITT bike before 2012 lol

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Now this is a huge exaggeration. He did train a lot on his ITT bike before too. I remember the articles I read about it on Belgian sport sites in 2010 and 2011. But not with the same focus as now. He was training on it but with less focus on how his position should be. That's what's new in 2012. Serious windtunnel testing.
Last year he was already decent in the Dauphine ITT 2011, but this year he made even more improvement.

You just made it sound like he never trained on his ITT bike before 2012 lol

NOT ONCE!

Just add "seriously" into that sentence. Obviously, he has trained on his TT bike the past years as well. But as he said himself not long ago, it was always the bare minimum. And i said "again"... which implies he at least once trained on his TT bike before, prior to 2012, lol.

 

[maxmartin]

Oh gosh, we are almost dead even

 

[united123]

Dekker T you think VDB2 and Gesink are better GC rider's than nibali,have you seen nibali's GT results but you keep holding on to gesink vdb2 have got a higher place in le tour who cares nibali has moved past these 2 in last couple yrs dude.
La vuelta espanya 1st giro 4th giro 3rd/2nd 1st tirreno 2nd lbl 3rd san remo pretty versatile huh.
gesink 6th tour 6th vuelta lol 1st in the mighty Amgen tour lol.

 

[cineteq]

Oh gosh, we are almost dead even

Yeah, after the Belgian contingent rushed to vote, now it's starting to make more sense...