Nibali vs. Rodriguez

[uphillstruggle]

On the contrary, Rodriguez is one of the most explosive climbers around.

True but you need to be explosive and have a huge engine to take big time. It's about creating the gap and maintaining it. It essentially becomes an uphill TT after the gap is made. Purito is all about acceleration not tempo riding.

 

[theyoungest]

Agreed, señor. There's nothing wrong with playing to your strenghts and weeknesses. Refusing to attack because it's safer or you don't have the cojones is a completetly different thing.

What's the difference? Nibali doesn't attack because he's afraid of blowing up (and probably rightly so, hence why you call it playing to his strenghts). It takes cojones to take that risk.

 

[uphillstruggle]

What's the difference? Nibali doesn't attack because he's afraid of blowing up (and probably rightly so, hence why you call it playing to his strenghts). It takes cojones to take that risk.

Nibali does attack but he attacks in a tempo rider kind of way, just like Basso. He won't go into the red too much. I do like the way he claws himself back though, it's adds to the excitement when you think he's gone and he comes round the corner 5 seconds back. Bring on La Vuelta.

 

[Angliru]

What's the difference? Nibali doesn't attack because he's afraid of blowing up (and probably rightly so, hence why you call it playing to his strenghts). It takes cojones to take that risk.

...and doesn't it take "cojones" to take the risks on descents that Nibali takes that has other riders calling their momma afterwards or complaining that such routes shouldn't be included at the end of stages (My obvious dig at a certain rider.)?

 

[cineteq]

...and it doesn't take "cojones" to take the risks on descents that Nibali takes that has other riders calling their momma afterwards or complaining that such routes shouldn't be included at the end of stages (My obvious dig at a certain rider.)?

Someone by the name of Andrew?

 

[cineteq]

What's the difference? Nibali doesn't attack because he's afraid of blowing up (and probably rightly so, hence why you call it playing to his strenghts). It takes cojones to take that risk.

You're a very confused person...

 

[cineteq]

Purito is confident he can win this year, and this is why:

Still, he has an advantage this time round. Aside from the work he’s done to improve, that time trial also comes much earlier in the race. It therefore gives him more opportunity to try to make up any ground he loses, and he will exploit the subsequent mountain stages to fight for the overall. He expects Nibali, Igor Anton (Euskaltel Euskadi), Denis Menchov (Geox-TMC), Bradley Wiggins (Sky Procycling) and Michele Scarponi (Lampre-ISD) to be his main rivals, and will seize every opportunity he gets to build time on each of those.

Read more: http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/9...much-better-than-last-year.aspx#ixzz1VPlKqIHZ

 

[Angliru]

Purito is confident he can win this year, and this is why:


Read more: http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/9...much-better-than-last-year.aspx#ixzz1VPlKqIHZ

I keep forgetting that he had already done the Tour when he went into last year's Vuelta and how impressive he was in the second half, a point where many of us thought that the fatigue from the Tour would be the end of him. I guess in a way it still may have been with his major time loss in the ITT. This has me even more confused as to who the favorite should be. I have no confidence in Wiggins regardless of the ideal length and flatness of the ITT.
For me it's a toss up between Anton, Purito and Nibali, with Menchov an outside bet due primarily to his complete lack of form for almost the entire season with the exception of Catalonia.

 

[Angliru]

Someone by the name of Andrew?

What gave it away?

 

[auscyclefan94]

Purito is confident he can win this year, and this is why:


Read more: http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/9...much-better-than-last-year.aspx#ixzz1VPlKqIHZ

I disagree with his comments about the ITT. Having it earlier in the race will be a disadvantage to him. The gc riders will all be fresher so it will be more about time trialling prowess and power which JRod is not really known for. If it were later in the race he would minimise his loses further because it would be more about rejuvanation, who was fresher and less about TT ability.

 

[theyoungest]

You're a very confused person...

Interesting response to a post you don't understand.

 

[Fetisoff]

If it were later in the race he would minimise his loses further because it would be more about rejuvanation, who was fresher and less about TT ability.

Cause he did so well in the late time trial a year ago.... right.

 

[The Hitch]

I disagree with his comments about the ITT. Having it earlier in the race will be a disadvantage to him. The gc riders will all be fresher so it will be more about time trialling prowess and power which JRod is not really known for. If it were later in the race he would minimise his loses further because it would be more about rejuvanation, who was fresher and less about TT ability.

I was thinking the same thing actually.

Interesting response to a post you don't understand.

Ignore him. His contributions increasingly involve pointless insults at the poster, like that, rather than anything of value.

Rodriguez

Still, he has an advantage this time round. Aside from the work he’s done to improve, that time trial also comes much earlier in the race. It therefore gives him more opportunity to try to make up any ground he loses, and he will exploit the subsequent mountain stages to fight for the overall. He expects Nibali, Igor Anton (Euskaltel Euskadi), Denis Menchov (Geox-TMC), Bradley Wiggins (Sky Procycling) and Michele Scarponi (Lampre-ISD) to be his main rivals, and will seize every opportunity he gets to build time on each of those.

Of course when you concentrate on cycling rather than other posters you do have something valuable to offer. Thanks for the link.

I am a bit surprised to see him name Wiggins as a contender. Couple with Sastre saying Cali is as big as the Giro , have these quite well mannered Spanish climbers been listening to Phil and Paul?

 

[Fetisoff]

I was thinking the same thing actually.

I would agree this is the case for people who are time trial specialists. For example, Fabian was too tired from the work he did for Schlecks in the tour de France, which didn't give him enough of a chance to recover for the time trial.

However, I don't think it's the case for J-Rod. He's as good as recovering as the next guy, remember - after his horrible time trial last year he case third at Bola del Mundo.

So what J-Rod's saying does make sense, he's going to lose the same chunk of time to others, regardless whether the time trial is early or late, however the early time trial does give him more opportunities to gain the time back, as others might pay less attention to him 3-4 minutes back, as opposed to him being in the red jersey.

Regardless, for J-Rod to have any chance of success this vuelta (and by success i mean a podium) a few things have to happen - he must lose no more than 30 seconds in TTT to Nibali, be about even with Menchov and Scarponi, and gain about 30 on Anton. And he must not blow up on Sierra Nevada like he did on Etna. I understand that he's supposed to be in way better condition now that at the start of the Giro, however i point out "supposed to". The last long climb that he did was in the dauphine, which he of course did really well on with an early attack, however he hasn't raced much since, and Burgos is a completely different animal, which suits him to perfection.

So it is impossible to know what kind of shape he's in for the grand tour (both physically and mentally), but we'll know no later than stage 4; after that we can come back to this topic with some hard facts i guess.

Sorry for the long message, i guess I'm kinda bored

 

[daveinzambia]

I am a bit surprised to see him name Wiggins as a contender.

is him naming Wiggins as a contender a sign of how nervous he is about the time trial?

 

[Fetisoff]

is him naming Wiggins as a contender a sign of how nervous he is about the time trial?

Probably also a sign of respect, since Wiggins beat him in the GC of his arguably finest race to date

 

[cineteq]

Of course when you concentrate on cycling rather than other posters you do have something valuable to offer. Thanks for the link.

You're welcome, I thought of you when I posted it.

 

[cineteq]

For me it's a toss up between Anton, Purito and Nibali, with Menchov an outside bet due primarily to his complete lack of form for almost the entire season with the exception of Catalonia.

The closer it gets to the start, I see Nibali and Rodriguez as the 2 big favorites. Followed by Anton and Wiggins, don't forget his team and himself could put massive a time gap to all other contenders, including Nibali. I'd put the Rabo wunderkind ahead of Scarponi or Menchov just because I don't trust their form.

 

[The Hitch]

Sorry for the long message, i guess I'm kinda bored

lol, im glad to see other people staying up late into the night to post long essays on the forum.

Your not in Russia though are you where surely its almost morning?

But the rest of the post was high quality. You're right, its good for J Rod to have lots of stages to get time back.

I guess another point to make is that it while Puritos performance vs Martin or Cancellara should change depending on the location of the tt in the schedule, what matters is his performance vs Menchov, Nibali, Anton. And seeing as they have good recovery also it means it shouldnt matter too much where the tt is.

In fact if J Rod has worse recovery (and there are reasons to believe it so), then its better for him that the tt come earlier.

 

[Fetisoff]

lol, im glad to see other people staying up late into the night to post long essays on the forum.

Your not in Russia though are you where surely its almost morning?

But the rest of the post was high quality. You're right, its good for J Rod to have lots of stages to get time back.

I guess another point to make is that it while Puritos performance vs Martin or Cancellara should change depending on the location of the tt in the schedule, what matters is his performance vs Menchov, Nibali, Anton. And seeing as they have good recovery also it means it shouldnt matter too much where the tt is.

In fact if J Rod has worse recovery (and there are reasons to believe it so), then its better for him that the tt come earlier.

You're right I'm not in Russia right now, and it's not that late where I am right now (North America). However, the part of Russia where I spend most of my time, I'd be already up by now anyway

Anyway...
The strange thing I find, is that while this Vuelta has one of the strongest line-ups in recent memory, and includes multiple GT winners, most of the talk on this forum (and some of other cycling sites may i add) is about J-Rod and Igor Anton, neither one of whom has ever podiumed in a GT.

I guess it's not strange really, rather awesome and shows that while days of Pantani's of this world are gone, exciting punchy riders like these two still get a lot of attention and are thoroughly liked by the fans

 

[The Hitch]

Well J Rod could get last years Vuelta podium.

Which reminds me, did anyone see last year in Madrid where they were handing out champagne in Madrid to the podium and Purito was next to Velits and he reached his hand out for a glass but they took it away from him, so some guy in a suit standing there with a glass gave J Rod his instead.

 

[spanky wanderlust]

I like pro bike riders. Especially ones that go through so much pain for our sport.

You really need to degrade it every-time i show that appreciation for one rider or another?



J Rod is way worse than Andy Schleck in the tt.

Though in the Giro this year he lost 2.14 in a 32km time trial, miraculously significantly under his usual 1 min per 10km loss. Moreover to Nibali his loss was 56 seconds. So if he can put in a similar performance he can limit his losses to 1.30.



On the contrary, Rodriguez is one of the most explosive climbers around.

i guess "explosive" was probably not the right word. let's try this: if nibali has the motor to successfully defend against the likes of mosquera and anton in the highest, steepest mountains, then he can hold off rodriguez.

and if j-rod has improved his tt (which it appears he has), i doubt i would say he was "way worse" than andy. whatevs. i don't think he can get to 1:30. but he can probably stay under 2:30. if he survives the tt then he is in with a real shot at the podium i'd say.

 

[greenedge]

I would love for JROD to go well. I like him, i just think that he cannot win a GT with his ITT. It's a pity as he only started competing for GT's last year.

 

[Angliru]

What's the difference? Nibali doesn't attack because he's afraid of blowing up (and probably rightly so, hence why you call it playing to his strenghts). It takes cojones to take that risk.

Do counter-attacks count? I just saw a re-telecast of the highlights from last years 2nd week of the Vuelta where Nibali countered a Mosquera attack, eventually catching and dropping Mosquera. He's not totally adverse to attacking apparently.

 

[Angliru]

I disagree with his comments about the ITT. Having it earlier in the race will be a disadvantage to him. The gc riders will all be fresher so it will be more about time trialling prowess and power which JRod is not really known for. If it were later in the race he would minimise his loses further because it would be more about rejuvanation, who was fresher and less about TT ability.

It being earlier in the race tells him exactly what time he needs to make up. Having it later would mean having to attack and attack earlier never knowing if he's done enough until after the ITT is over.