Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

[May0maniac]

Re: Re:

Cologna seems to be in great shape, I wouldn't underestimate him, and Krogh is getting better, if he's in striking distance on the final stage he could give Sergey some problems, he has been pretty good on that stage before and he's 9kg lighter than Sergey.

...8 or 10 kilos lighter and 10 centimetres smaller.

Yes, but 2 years ago he was around 33 seconds faster than Ustigov, faster than Roethe and just a few seconds slower than Matti Heikkinen.
Of course we haven't seen him on the climb multiple times and we also don't know how good his form is, but him gaining 30-35 seconds on Ustigov on the final ascent could happen.

 

[Bavarianrider]

I really don't understand why Sundby is competing. What is his plan? I mean the only thig that he's missing is Olympic Gold. So why is he trying to win something here, when he's clearly not at his best.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

The commentators seem somehow surprised by how good Poltoranin's time is. It's a distance Classic race, of course Poltoranin is good. Bolshunov looking really strong, Ustiugov not in the super form of last season just yet. Sundby maybe just looking for some form, he looked decent today but he clearly faded towards the end, mind you Poltoranin gained a lot of time on all the big guns there, including Cologna who only just held onto his 7" advantage.

 

[BullsFan22]

Re:

The commentators seem somehow surprised by how good Poltoranin's time is. It's a distance Classic race, of course Poltoranin is good. Bolshunov looking really strong, Ustiugov not in the super form of last season just yet. Sundby maybe just looking for some form, he looked decent today but he clearly faded towards the end, mind you Poltoranin gained a lot of time on all the big guns there, including Cologna who only just held onto his 7" advantage.

Which language did you watch it in?

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Eurosport International, so in English.

 

[BullsFan22]

I can't tell if Ustiugov is holding something back or if he's just not in the same form he was last year. The conditions changed again, as it rained last night and then froze, just in time for the race. Tomorrow it's supposed to snow. I feel like the race will be neutralized, as the top guy(s) will be caught if it does snow and it makes it drastically slower to lead. It appears Cologna and Ustiugov will be one and two, with Bolshunov up there. After that it's anybody's guess. Poltoranin, Sundby and Chervotkin didn't make the heats, so they'll be over 20 seconds back, if my math is good. Should be tight racing, but for the first few places, but who knows.

 

[BullsFan22]

Re:

Eurosport International, so in English.

Interesting. If it's Dixon/Winterton/Goldstrom...that's surprising. They HAVE to know by now how good Poltoranin is at classic races, especially 10/15km...middle distance. He's won at Lenzerheide before as well. The only thing that they may find it interesting is the fact that he was an early starter, but still....this is the type of race that he's had his best moments at.

 

[bambino]

I can't tell if Ustiugov is holding something back or if he's just not in the same form he was last year. The conditions changed again, as it rained last night and then froze, just in time for the race. Tomorrow it's supposed to snow. I feel like the race will be neutralized, as the top guy(s) will be caught if it does snow and it makes it drastically slower to lead. It appears Cologna and Ustiugov will be one and two, with Bolshunov up there. After that it's anybody's guess. Poltoranin, Sundby and Chervotkin didn't make the heats, so they'll be over 20 seconds back, if my math is good. Should be tight racing, but for the first few places, but who knows.

Ustiugov and Cologna are starting within 1-2 seconds tomorrow. If my memory servers right, Bolshunov and Poltoranin next. Hakola (who was surprisingly good today) is fifth followed by Sundby who is around 35-40 sec behind Ustiugov. Niskanen seventh.

The big guns in free style such as Manificat and Hellner around 1m30s behind at the start. Harvey more than a minute as well.

 

[python]

lots of interesting results to chew on in terms of projecting the next races...

someone asked above why sundby is racing and martin answered it today. i also dont see in the splits that he faded all that much. yes, polto and cologna had finished strongly and that does not bode well for the ustiougov''s overall, but the race is still young and, frankly, considering several factors, i did not think ustiougov is in worse shape than last year. he finished 10th, 35 something seconds down losing in the process almost all the 'fat' he earned in the sprint. BUT. it was a long classic race, not his fave style, in the VERY soft and warm conditions (snow 0 C and air 8 C). plus the 'hilliness of the 5 mile loop was above average if not close to the legal limit. tomorrow, if the conditions are just a little bit harder, i dont see cologna dropping him in a skate. but dario is plenty dangerous and very smart tactically. i would not bet against him big money.

to the other results...the young russian duo (bolshunov and chevotkin) continue to deliver. being 4th and 5th literally above all the norges except sundby is remarkable. particularly for chervotkin who is a distinctly better skater, while bolshunov excels at classic. bolshunov did fade visibly (and he was quite unhappy about it) but this 20 yo still has some to learn about PACING.

i am entirely disappointed in the swedes, but it's not like i expected much good to see harvey suffer...he lost me as a fan after i heard his loud mouth. manificat also disappointed and now he's over 2 minutes behind on a gc.

it is now clear that cologna, sundby holund and perhaps niskanen will continue pressure for the podium.

the pursuits are always exciting and the one tomorrow will not be an exception.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Re:

lots of interesting results to chew on in terms of projecting the next races...

someone asked above why sundby is racing and martin answered it today. i also dont see in the splits that he faded all that much. yes, polto and cologna had finished strongly and that does not bode well for the ustiougov''s overall, but the race is still young and, frankly, considering several factors, i did not think ustiougov is in worse shape than last year. he finished 10th, 35 something seconds down losing in the process almost all the 'fat' he earned in the sprint. BUT. it was a long classic race, not his fave style, in the VERY soft and warm conditions (snow 0 C and air 8 C). plus the 'hilliness of the 5 mile loop was above average if not close to the legal limit. tomorrow, if the conditions are just a little bit harder, i dont see cologna dropping him in a skate. but dario is plenty dangerous and very smart tactically. i would not bet against him big money.

to the other results...the young russian duo (bolshunov and chevotkin) continue to deliver. being 4th and 5th literally above all the norges except sundby is remarkable. particularly for chervotkin who is a distinctly better skater, while bolshunov excels at classic. bolshunov did fade visibly (and he was quite unhappy about it) but this 20 yo still has some to learn about PACING.

i am entirely disappointed in the swedes, but it's not like i expected much good to see harvey suffer...he lost me as a fan after i heard his loud mouth. manificat also disappointed and now he's over 2 minutes behind on a gc.

it is now clear that cologna, sundby holund and perhaps niskanen will continue pressure for the podium.

the pursuits are always exciting and the one tomorrow will not be an exception.

Today were Sundby conditions. He usually excells when it's icy and above 0°degree. I still don't think he can win the Tour. Let's not Forget that he saved a lot of energy yesterday compared to Ustiugov, Bolshunov, and Cologna.
Tomorrow conditions will be a lot slower again. I expect Ustiugov and Cologna to open up the gap to Sundby again.
Boloushnov continues to impress, what a consisten to level he's showing at this young age.

 

[bambino]

Re:

lots of interesting results to chew on in terms of projecting the next races...

someone asked above why sundby is racing and martin answered it today. i also dont see in the splits that he faded all that much. yes, polto and cologna had finished strongly and that does not bode well for the ustiougov''s overall, but the race is still young and, frankly, considering several factors, i did not think ustiougov is in worse shape than last year. he finished 10th, 35 something seconds down losing in the process almost all the 'fat' he earned in the sprint. BUT. it was a long classic race, not his fave style, in the VERY soft and warm conditions (snow 0 C and air 8 C). plus the 'hilliness of the 5 mile loop was above average if not close to the legal limit. tomorrow, if the conditions are just a little bit harder, i dont see cologna dropping him in a skate. but dario is plenty dangerous and very smart tactically. i would not bet against him big money.

to the other results...the young russian duo (bolshunov and chevotkin) continue to deliver. being 4th and 5th literally above all the norges except sundby is remarkable. particularly for chervotkin who is a distinctly better skater, while bolshunov excels at classic. bolshunov did fade visibly (and he was quite unhappy about it) but this 20 yo still has some to learn about PACING.

i am entirely disappointed in the swedes, but it's not like i expected much good to see harvey suffer...he lost me as a fan after i heard his loud mouth. manificat also disappointed and now he's over 2 minutes behind on a gc.

it is now clear that cologna, sundby holund and perhaps niskanen will continue pressure for the podium.

the pursuits are always exciting and the one tomorrow will not be an exception.

Niskanen will exit the Tour after the sprint in Obertsdorf. Same for Hakola I think.

 

[BullsFan22]

I can't tell if Ustiugov is holding something back or if he's just not in the same form he was last year. The conditions changed again, as it rained last night and then froze, just in time for the race. Tomorrow it's supposed to snow. I feel like the race will be neutralized, as the top guy(s) will be caught if it does snow and it makes it drastically slower to lead. It appears Cologna and Ustiugov will be one and two, with Bolshunov up there. After that it's anybody's guess. Poltoranin, Sundby and Chervotkin didn't make the heats, so they'll be over 20 seconds back, if my math is good. Should be tight racing, but for the first few places, but who knows.

Ustiugov and Cologna are starting within 1-2 seconds tomorrow. If my memory servers right, Bolshunov and Poltoranin next. Hakola (who was surprisingly good today) is fifth followed by Sundby who is around 35-40 sec behind Ustiugov. Niskanen seventh.

The big guns in free style such as Manificat and Hellner around 1m30s behind at the start. Harvey more than a minute as well.

Here are the standings after today's stage.

http://medias4.fis-ski.com/pdf/2018/CC/2204/2018CC2204TDS.pdf


Ustiugov and Cologna will work together. Will Bolshunov go hard to try and close right away? He's got Poltoranin and Hakola behind him, but those guys are not as good in skating. Then it's almost 30 seconds back to Sundby, Niskanen, Chervotkin, Harvey, Holund, etc...Perhaps Ustiugov won't do too much too early. Maybe he'll let Bolshunov close and they can work together with Cologna to increase their advantage. Cologna is in good shape, so he can race it any way he can. He can set a fast pace from the start and see if the others can hang. He won't beat Ustiugov or indeed Bolshunov if it comes down to a last hundred meter sprint, but he can go away if he's really in form and if Ustiugov or Bolshunov (if he is with the top 2) struggle. Bolshunov has had an interesting adventure in the three individual distance races he's done this season so far...started fast and led through 10/11 km, then faded and just missed out on 4th. It was nearly identical today as it was in Ruka, the other individual 15km classic. In Davos, he paced it much better, finished strong and came in 3rd. Today he led by even more at halfway and then faded. He's got a great finishing kick at the end of a distance race and can deal with sprints, so hopefully with more experience he can rely on that more than simply going out hard for the first half and then trying to survive and hope the wheels don't come off. He is the unknown quantity still, especially at the Tour, as it's his first foray in this competition. I still think it was a mistake for the coaches to take him and Chervotkin to the tour. It's a brutal competition and they've already raced a heavy schedule, plus they took part in Muonio and Gallivaere before the World Cup even started, and Bolshunov had to miss Toblach because of illness. Not sure if going straight to the TDS after an illness is a good idea...

Anyway, as one can see from the standings, the others are still there. Even Hellner can be dangerous in a race like tomorrow, plus he tends to get better as tours go. The big one will be tomorrow. If he can close down and keep himself to no more than one minute, then that will be good for him. However, the classic sprint in Oberstdorf on Wednesday is a danger. He can easily miss the top 30, no bonus seconds and people like Ustiugov, Cologna, Bolshunov, Harvey...can gain 30+ seconds on him and then he is back to where he is today, or even further back. Manificat is in almost an identical spot. Both of them rely on strong skate distance races. Maybe they can work together tomorrow....

Also interesting to see what Pellegrino can do tomorrow, in preparation to the sprint. After that sprint he'll likely drop out and prepare for Dresden.

 

[jsem94]

I'm so glad Cologna is finding good form once again. The Swedes, well, I don't even know. I don't know what Calle is even doing here in TdS, he should be at home. Not sure how anyone of our male skiers are supposed to find form going into the Olympics.

 

[python]

the pursuit tactic for the top 3 will likely see them join in together before the 1st 5 km will be over...

it is a given imo that ustiugov and cologna have everything to gain and little to lose by forming a group with bolshunov in order to keep sundby at an arms length. cologna is NOT harvey and will realize the benefit, particularly when he will have such 2 excellent companions.

most likely poltoranin and hakola will be absorbed by sundby/niskanen/chervotkin/harvey/holund etc. if the young russian is instructed right, he will hitch a good ride in a group where sundby will likely lead alot in order to bridge to the top 3.

if the conditions will be as warm as today, cologna may take a gc lead by few seconds to lose it after the classic sprint.

then we are likely to witness the unusual fireworks for the bonus seconds in the coming mass starts so that people grab as many seconds as possible before the cermis.

 

[BullsFan22]

Re:

the pursuit tactic for the top 3 will likely see them join in together before the 1st 5 km will be over...

it is a given imo that ustiugov and cologna have everything to gain and little to lose by forming a group with bolshunov in order to keep sundby at an arms length. cologna is NOT harvey and will realize the benefit, particularly when he will have such 2 excellent companions.

most likely poltoranin and hakola will be absorbed by sundby/niskanen/chervotkin/harvey/holund etc. if the young russian is instructed right, he will hitch a good ride in a group where sundby will likely lead alot in order to bridge to the top 3.

if the conditions will be as warm as today, cologna may take a gc lead by few seconds to lose it after the classic sprint.

then we are likely to witness the unusual fireworks for the bonus seconds in the coming mass starts so that people grab as many seconds as possible before the cermis.

I definitely agree that Ustiugov and Cologna will want to put as much time as they can over Sundby and all the other contenders. My question is, will they let Bolshunov close down on them and work with him if he does join? He's 12 seconds behind Ustiugov. It's not too much, but he'll have to work for it. Three working together is better than two, obviously. Honestly don't think Bolshunov will get caught by Sundby, but he may if he chooses to sit up and not take risks. Two years ago on the same course, same style and format, Toenseth caught Northug, but had nothing left when Northug attacked for 2nd place. Toenseth was then caught and dropped by Krogh and Ustiugov. So anything could happen.

The conditions were quite fast today, quite firm/icy. People were struggling to stay on their feet on the downhills and it wasn't easy waxing for kick either. It's supposed to snow overnight and into the morning, but stay below freezing, which should make for good conditions.

 

[Rider]

Have anybody noted Cologna ski yesterday? 9 years old model.

 

[python]

Re: Re:

the pursuit tactic for the top 3 will likely see them join in together before the 1st 5 km will be over...

it is a given imo that ustiugov and cologna have everything to gain and little to lose by forming a group with bolshunov in order to keep sundby at an arms length. cologna is NOT harvey and will realize the benefit, particularly when he will have such 2 excellent companions.

most likely poltoranin and hakola will be absorbed by sundby/niskanen/chervotkin/harvey/holund etc. if the young russian is instructed right, he will hitch a good ride in a group where sundby will likely lead alot in order to bridge to the top 3.

if the conditions will be as warm as today, cologna may take a gc lead by few seconds to lose it after the classic sprint.

then we are likely to witness the unusual fireworks for the bonus seconds in the coming mass starts so that people grab as many seconds as possible before the cermis.

I definitely agree that Ustiugov and Cologna will want to put as much time as they can over Sundby and all the other contenders. My question is, will they let Bolshunov close down on them and work with him if he does join? He's 12 seconds behind Ustiugov. It's not too much, but he'll have to work for it. Three working together is better than two, obviously. Honestly don't think Bolshunov will get caught by Sundby, but he may if he chooses to sit up and not take risks. Two years ago on the same course, same style and format, Toenseth caught Northug, but had nothing left when Northug attacked for 2nd place. Toenseth was then caught and dropped by Krogh and Ustiugov. So anything could happen.

The conditions were quite fast today, quite firm/icy. People were struggling to stay on their feet on the downhills and it wasn't easy waxing for kick either. It's supposed to snow overnight and into the morning, but stay below freezing, which should make for good conditions.

you were right. cologna is too strong at the moment and under those feelings he'd be unwise to waitt...bolshunov has distanced polto who is about to be absorbed.

 

[jsem94]

Dario is back.

 

[python]

interesting that after the initial dario attack, the gap stabilized around 20-22 seconds to even shrink to 17 at the very end. perhaps dario is stronger atm, but if he could he'd extend the gap surely but could not.

the sundby group almost caught bolshunov who unlike yesterday held to the finish. several got closer to ustiougov including he teammate chervotkin. i really want to see this youngster on the last day climb...

 

[Rider]

If Cologna perform well in sprint (and Ustiugov not) he is the Tour winner probably. Sergey needs at least 50 second to be safe at Val di Fiemme.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I have just seen Alpine skiing at Holmenkollen. I threw up a little in my mouth.

 

[Singer01]

Re:

I have just seen Alpine skiing at Holmenkollen. I threw up a little in my mouth.

I've skied Holmenkollen, how is that even possible? What was the event, the 100m?

 

[python]

today is a day off at the tour...the pursuit results allow to make some tentative conclusions and projections. while cologna proved superior to ustiougov now in both skiing styles, it needs to be accounted for the specific conditions in lenzerheide - it was very warm and soft...not only the anthropomorphic/physical/individual differences may have played their role, but also the ski prep as well as the home zeal and support for dario.

while i would NOT overestimate his advantage over sergey (he tried but could not extend the initial gap in the pursuit), dario was a pleasure to watch. even on the last 4th lap when he said he was tired, his technique was superb whereas sergey looked wobbly and twisty. again, i tend NOT to think that the soft conditions disadvantaged ustiuogov more than dario - mainly b/c a heavier richardsson was the 2nd fastest in the same conditions.

here's the actual pursuit results:
http://medias2.fis-ski.com/pdf/2018/CC/2206/2018CC2206PRL.pdf

richardsson and larkov stand out. both are much better at a classic style, both showed virtually nothing all season, but did splendidly in the hilly skate. go figure. i mean ANY projections based on the past performances and preferences can be unreliable.

still, i will dare to predict that both ustiougov and bolshunov are likely to gain in the coming classic sprint compared to dario. even if they sweep the generous sprint bonuses, it seem insufficient to fatten their advantage looking at what sergey would need to feel comfortable BEFORE cermis.

 

[Rider]

Tomorrow sprint could be cancelled due to weather.

 

[Singer01]

Who, if given the choice would make the brave decision to drop OEB from the Norwegian team for the Olympics? Boe, Boe and Svendsen are locks, but 3 other Norwegians currently rank higher than him.