Re:
Manificat, Larkov and Rickardsson skied together the entire race and they were moving very quickly. There was no waiting with them. It's too bad Manificat isn't a better sprinter, but that's the beauty of this format, you have to be proficient at both. Manificat won the classic sprint at high altitude in slow, slushy conditions on a tough/long-ish course in Canmore at the Tour of Canada in March 2016, so he can, once in a while produce, just not as much as he needs to in these tour races. Larkov and Rickardsson basically fed off Manificat and they latched on to the train and then catching the next 5-15 guys ahead of them and skied it in to the finish. It was a surprise to see those two ski so well, as you said because they are better classic skiers and also because of their rather unimpressive season so far. I think that's a good sign for both of them and for their teams as well, especially the Swedes, who've done almost nothing so far this season apart from Halfvarsson in the early weeks. Hellner also had a solid race, not surprisingly on that tough course in skating and being a 'light' skier.
It's hard to say what Ustiugov is thinking or what form he is in. Yes the conditions didn't really suit him, and he perhaps hasn't recovered from the effort he put in the sprint win on stage 1, but he showed last year that he can deal with consecutive racing and can recover...I think he and his coaches are playing it carefully with this tour. I am sure he would sacrifice defending his title for a gold in Korea, but from his interviews, that isn't the case. He said he's going to give it his all and see what happens. Cologna is in great shape, he is always rock solid in tour races, never seems to be far off, he knows the courses in Lenzerheide better than anyone else and the crowd support was quite impressive for him. Still, I don't think it's a disaster for Ustiugov. The tough part is the conditions in Oberstdorf and Val di Fiemme. The forecast calls for rain in Germany and rain/snow in Italy. That means soft/slow conditions. On those tough courses, it's going to be brutal. The mass start classic, where there's going to be a fight for bonus seconds is going to be a make or break race for the favorites. The sprint tomorrow however is just as important. Ustiugov probably needs to get in the top 3, if not win it and he'll need Cologna to perhaps not even get into the top 30 for him to get a nice buffer again. But that means expending a lot of energy and power before the 15km mass start on Thursday. It could all change by the end of that race as well.
Bolshunov, I think, is too young and inexperienced to get on the podium, and like I've been saying before, it was a mistake to bring him to the tour. He's raced almost every weekend since mid November and was sick prior to the tour (missed Toblach because of it). He's going to be burned out if he does the whole tour. I don't get the thinking in the coaches. Yeah it's nice to get world cup points and a podium or two, but there is only a month between the end of the tour and the Olympics. I don't really see how he'll recover, build up his form again and perform well in Korea. Klaebo has raced a lot as well, but he is skipping the tour and will race sparingly this month so he can train. Yes you need races to keep your body and mind sharp, but you also need to recover. I guess we'll see what happens. I just feel with an already depleted team, the Russians can't really afford to have guys like Ustiugov, Bolshunov, Chervotkin, Larkov... exhausted for the rest of the year and then be out of form for the Olympics.
I am interested to see what Sundby does. I actually think he makes it into the top 30 tomorrow, and that will be important for him, because he isn't in the form that he was last year. Ustiugov isn't either, but his form is sloooowly rising, where Sundby is...not sure...The rest of the Norwegians are in trouble apart from maybe Holund. Iversen should do well (he won two years ago on the very same course), but he can't distance skate and that final uphill will not be fun for him.
The German women have surprised so far. What can they do on home soil? Their men have been more or less bad, except for Thomas Bing, who's had a great last two days in Lenzerheide. None of the men have qualified for the Olympics so far, and that's troubling. For the women, I think only Ringwald has. Fessel and Boehler, 33 and 36 year old's, are on their way to qualifying, but this is likely their last year on the tour. It's worrying that their best two distance skiers are well into their 30's.
Good to see De Fabiani up there. He didn't have a good season last year, so hopefully he continues to improve. Would love to see the Italians challenge for relays again. They have De Fabiani, Noeckler, Salvadori and of course Pellegrino. Not a bad team if they are on form. But they are an even smaller team than the Germans and French and have relied on mostly Pellegrino and sometimes De Fabiani for podiums in the last 4-5 seasons.
python said:
Manificat, Larkov and Rickardsson skied together the entire race and they were moving very quickly. There was no waiting with them. It's too bad Manificat isn't a better sprinter, but that's the beauty of this format, you have to be proficient at both. Manificat won the classic sprint at high altitude in slow, slushy conditions on a tough/long-ish course in Canmore at the Tour of Canada in March 2016, so he can, once in a while produce, just not as much as he needs to in these tour races. Larkov and Rickardsson basically fed off Manificat and they latched on to the train and then catching the next 5-15 guys ahead of them and skied it in to the finish. It was a surprise to see those two ski so well, as you said because they are better classic skiers and also because of their rather unimpressive season so far. I think that's a good sign for both of them and for their teams as well, especially the Swedes, who've done almost nothing so far this season apart from Halfvarsson in the early weeks. Hellner also had a solid race, not surprisingly on that tough course in skating and being a 'light' skier.
It's hard to say what Ustiugov is thinking or what form he is in. Yes the conditions didn't really suit him, and he perhaps hasn't recovered from the effort he put in the sprint win on stage 1, but he showed last year that he can deal with consecutive racing and can recover...I think he and his coaches are playing it carefully with this tour. I am sure he would sacrifice defending his title for a gold in Korea, but from his interviews, that isn't the case. He said he's going to give it his all and see what happens. Cologna is in great shape, he is always rock solid in tour races, never seems to be far off, he knows the courses in Lenzerheide better than anyone else and the crowd support was quite impressive for him. Still, I don't think it's a disaster for Ustiugov. The tough part is the conditions in Oberstdorf and Val di Fiemme. The forecast calls for rain in Germany and rain/snow in Italy. That means soft/slow conditions. On those tough courses, it's going to be brutal. The mass start classic, where there's going to be a fight for bonus seconds is going to be a make or break race for the favorites. The sprint tomorrow however is just as important. Ustiugov probably needs to get in the top 3, if not win it and he'll need Cologna to perhaps not even get into the top 30 for him to get a nice buffer again. But that means expending a lot of energy and power before the 15km mass start on Thursday. It could all change by the end of that race as well.
Bolshunov, I think, is too young and inexperienced to get on the podium, and like I've been saying before, it was a mistake to bring him to the tour. He's raced almost every weekend since mid November and was sick prior to the tour (missed Toblach because of it). He's going to be burned out if he does the whole tour. I don't get the thinking in the coaches. Yeah it's nice to get world cup points and a podium or two, but there is only a month between the end of the tour and the Olympics. I don't really see how he'll recover, build up his form again and perform well in Korea. Klaebo has raced a lot as well, but he is skipping the tour and will race sparingly this month so he can train. Yes you need races to keep your body and mind sharp, but you also need to recover. I guess we'll see what happens. I just feel with an already depleted team, the Russians can't really afford to have guys like Ustiugov, Bolshunov, Chervotkin, Larkov... exhausted for the rest of the year and then be out of form for the Olympics.
I am interested to see what Sundby does. I actually think he makes it into the top 30 tomorrow, and that will be important for him, because he isn't in the form that he was last year. Ustiugov isn't either, but his form is sloooowly rising, where Sundby is...not sure...The rest of the Norwegians are in trouble apart from maybe Holund. Iversen should do well (he won two years ago on the very same course), but he can't distance skate and that final uphill will not be fun for him.
The German women have surprised so far. What can they do on home soil? Their men have been more or less bad, except for Thomas Bing, who's had a great last two days in Lenzerheide. None of the men have qualified for the Olympics so far, and that's troubling. For the women, I think only Ringwald has. Fessel and Boehler, 33 and 36 year old's, are on their way to qualifying, but this is likely their last year on the tour. It's worrying that their best two distance skiers are well into their 30's.
Good to see De Fabiani up there. He didn't have a good season last year, so hopefully he continues to improve. Would love to see the Italians challenge for relays again. They have De Fabiani, Noeckler, Salvadori and of course Pellegrino. Not a bad team if they are on form. But they are an even smaller team than the Germans and French and have relied on mostly Pellegrino and sometimes De Fabiani for podiums in the last 4-5 seasons.
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