Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

[BullsFan22]

Well, I do think the sport is dying a slow death at least what concerns international competition and I don't see a long-term future for it as a professional sport, so let's enjoy what is still left.

By the way, looking at top 20, the best non-Nordic/Russian skier was... Pellegrino in 19th. Should tell you well, where the balance of powers is at the moment. In women there were a few surprises though, like Razymova in top 10.

On the women side I just hope Swedes have timed their form for the later part of the season, because this has been a very underwhelming weekend for them. However, it will be another Johaug whitewash over the season. It's just the question of who will finish 2nd and 3rd in whatever races. Nepryaeva died completely in 10k skate though, so what happened there?

Long term it's looking grim.

 

[zarnack]

The Russians that weren't in Ruka, well, Belorukova and Sedova are pregnant, so they will miss the entire season.

Thanks for the information. Needless to say, this will weaken Russia's relay effort a lot this season. Firm top 3 team in recent couple of years in 4x5 km. Well, guess not so much any more (USA will overtake at the very least).

--

Also I'd spare a thought about Nordic Combined, where it seems like competition has collapsed. Riiber has Johauged the field with dominant wins and even Germans have lost ground, who used to be good in past seasons.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

To be fair, the Germans were generating processions 3-4 years ago, but their core is aging and apart from Geiger, it seems they're either too young or too old to match the field the Norwegians are putting together to back up Riiber, let alone JMR himself.

As for the Russian relay, there is the possibility that in the Lahti relay if they still have depth issues with people not stepping up, and she's still performing well on the skis (she finished last season with some top 10 ski times and started this year with a 2nd course time today), they might draft Mironova in from the biathlon, since it falls on a free weekend for the ski-shooters after the biathlon Worlds and there's four days after that until the sprint in Nové Mesto.

 

[Norbea]

As if Norwegian dominance on the women side isn't large enough. At Lillehammer 18 y.o. Helene Fossesholm will make her WC debut. I am guessing she is already a top 5 contender. In the season opener only Johaug and Weng could follow her pace. And Norway won't even match her much at top senior level yet this season. We might not see her much outside Lillehammer.

 

[zarnack]

Long term it's looking grim.

Thought I'd make a comment on the long-term perspectives. There are two things to look at. One is climate change, which decreases skiing seasons. Ultimately what it means is that it simply increases gaps between a handful of hard-core skiing nations and the rest. Norway, Russia and northern Sweden and Finland still have good winters. I think northern USA has pretty good winters too, and their women skiers are doing fine. However, other areas suffer a lot more. Shorter ski seasons kill off any skiing traditions. If you are for example looking at central Europe, I think decline is already showing.

Another aspect is financial. As the sport declines, it simply means that getting sponsorship is harder and harder. More amateurs are going to show up at races. And these amateurs and half-professionals won't really be a serious feature, ending up 3-4 minutes down on Norwegians over 10/15k. Again, this is where the gap between nations will increase. Skiing is a national sport in Norway and they can attract good money for a while in their homeland. But most other nations are not so well off. I don't really have an overview of financial incentives in different countries. But I once read that Canadian skiers have to pay their own plane tickets to go to events. And that's hard. No surprise they aren't showing up.

Also in terms of finances you don't necessarily need to go to niche countries, but you can also take a look at a Nordic country like Finland. I think their skiing budget has been slashed last decade, because also ski jumping and nordic combined have declined a lot, where they used to be very good. In XC they have I.Niskanen and Pärmäkoski, but emptiness behind them. There isn't any depth in the team.

Anyway, putting all these factors together I think the future is that Norway dominates thoroughly, mixing it with a handful of Swedes and Russians. Well, at least you could say the Swedish female ski team is young and talented and should be around for a while.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

But, if you look at central Europe, is it really declining or is it shifting? I'd say there's an element of decline, but the same issue does not appear to be striking down biathlon, which you would expect to trend similarly if it were purely to do with shorter ski seasons, and while Sweden have just re-emerged after a few years of doldrums, Finland are still a very peripheral nation in the sport, Kaisa Mäkäräinen excepted. Germany are always one of the biggest nations in biathlon, as are France, while other central and western European nations that have XC tradition are also strongly represented. The Czech Republic has seen a huge swing towards biathlon in recent years, with the aging and retirement of their long-standing XC stalwarts like Lukáš Bauer, and the success of their biathlon team, led in large parts by the (to my mind inexplicable) popularity of Gabriela Soukalová but backed up ably by Vitková, Šlesingr, Moravec and others (Davidová looks like assuming the mantle now). Italy have two World Champions in Wierer and Windisch, and the reigning World Cup overall top 2 among women in Wierer and Vittozzi. Austria are still something of a one-gender team, save for Hauser, but they were top 5 in the Nations Cup last season nonetheless among men. Although their teams are supplemented by Russian defections, Ukraine and Belarus are prominent, especially the former, while Slovakia even without Kuzmina now have the Fialková sisters who could feasibly win a race. The North American nations do not seem to be as central in biathlon, although they have made some progress (much of which has been halted by the retirement of a couple of long-term stalwarts).

Now, there are a couple of factors that also play into this, which are to do with the nature of XC as a sport. Firstly, there is much more variety in the skiing element of XC for obvious reasons, whereas the biathlon is all in skate, and all in a distance rance of 6km (the SMR) to 20km (the men's Individual). Rotation in the team in XC can often depend on a wider range of factors as a result - there are people who specialise in classic, people who only race the sprints, people who are better in individual start pacing, people who specialise in freestyle, people who specialise in long-distance races - whereas in biathlon, the most you will get along those lines is somebody like a Julian Eberhard, a Lars Berger or a Miriam Gössner being rested for an Individual because their shooting isn't trustworthy. In the XC, you can look at the points rankings from the previous season and see people like Federico Pellegrino who only score points in sprints, and people like Theresa Stadlober and Nathalie von Siebenthal who are only scoring points in distance.

Secondly, because there is only so much most teams are able to do before they hit the wall of the funding gap in XC, that unless a smaller XC nation just happens upon a world class talent like a Justyna Kowalczyk, they will inevitably be crowded out by the glut of Norwegian, Russian, Swedish and Finnish talents - but given that unless you're the absolute fastest (or a sprinter, where a bit more luck of the draw can factor into it, but generally the winners in these have been trimmed down to a select 3-4) you will always just be picking up placements in XC whereas you can potentially win in biathlon with the right shooting, you can see why athletes in nations beyond the established Scandinavian/Russian axis would gravitate to ski-shooting.

Finally, the audience figures for biathlon are showing positive trends through a lot of these countries, because the spectacle is less predictable (well, Fourcade and more recently Johannes Bø have done their best to narrow down the number of competitors to a comparable amount to that in XC), which keeps fans interested more. Put yourself in the shoes of a German or a Czech. Would you rather watch something where your home talent is likely to come 25th and pick up 3-4 seconds of TV time as they finish, or something where they could win OR come 75th on any given day?

 

[zarnack]

Biathlon as a sport is indeed much better off and doesn't show signs of decline. Although you have to say on average Norwegians tend to be the fastest skiers there too. But shooting balances the state of game a lot.

I think biathlon as a sport has been heavily boosted by the way TV coverage has improved over time. It was a niche sport in the 70's and 80's, when the TV coverage was still poor. But with modern graphics and everything it offers a great show for TV viewers, more thrilling than what XC can offer. So it makes sense biathlon is making hay as a superior spectacle.

Whether decline would hit biathlon at one point too is hard to tell, but as a professional well-earning sport it seems to definitely outlive XC. And the majority of countries, if they have to make a decision, would rather put their funding into biathlon than XC. Although obviously - biathlon can't exist without cross-country skiing. So XC can't completely disappear, while biathlon keeps existing. So it will be interesting to see if the decline of XC could at some point in any way influence biathlon too.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I'd say that it's alarming for XC that they're seeing so many people hæmorrhage to the ski-shooting. I mean, Denise Herrmann may have been proven right in the long run, but especially given the experiment with Evi Sachenbacher-Stehle beforehand it was a big gamble - she gave up being the undisputed German number one in XC, not just to join the Biathlon World Cup but to spend a year on the second-tier IBU Cup. Victoria Carl has already had a go with a rifle, but decided against it. While frequently biathlon tends to attract, at least in the biggest XC nations, athletes who aren't quite the best but are good enough on the skis, when established XC World Cup names are moving over, it's more concerning, or at least should be more concerning for FIS. Herrmann may not have been a huge results-getter among the XC ranks, but she was a World Cup race winner, twice top 10 in the World Cup overall. Germans are already watching biathlon, but they then lost the biggest draw for German fans to watch XC too. It then creates a system where it's more likely that the XC team is made up of people who failed to make the biathlon team - in which case they're unlikely to be good enough to be competitive in XC either, if the fact that athletes like Johannes Kühn and Miriam Gössner who would probably have been better off as XC skiers stuck to biathlon all their career is anything to go by.

The XC circus needs other countries to have somebody to follow, to inspire the new generation, rather than those people retiring and not being replaced and leaving a void behind like has been seen with the Germans with the Angerer/Teichmann/Filbrich generation. Who's going to replace Lukáš Bauer to get Czechs to want to be XC skiers? Who's going to replace Alex Harvey and Devon Kershaw in Canada?

 

[zarnack]

The XC circus needs other countries to have somebody to follow, to inspire the new generation, rather than those people retiring and not being replaced and leaving a void behind like has been seen with the Germans with the Angerer/Teichmann/Filbrich generation. Who's going to replace Lukáš Bauer to get Czechs to want to be XC skiers? Who's going to replace Alex Harvey and Devon Kershaw in Canada?

That's the question isn't it. But looks like they aren't being replaced. Of course here I think are wider considerations at play, and not only competition with biathlon. The last decade has seen increase in social media and also X sports, which have been increasingly included in olympic programmes. Which means there has been increasing competition among winter sports. Also XC is a tough endurance sport - couple this with shorter winters and also a questionable spectacle (Norwegians win all the time, there are more exciting sports and entertainment options out there), and hence young people opt for other options.

Once I read that Kläbo had the choice of becoming either a footballer or a skier. As skiing is very popular in Norway, he chose skiing. Had it been almost any other country, I suspect the decision would have been different...

 

[zarnack]

In the XC, you can look at the points rankings from the previous season and see people like Federico Pellegrino who only score points in sprints, and people like Theresa Stadlober and Nathalie von Siebenthal who are only scoring points in distance.

(or a sprinter, where a bit more luck of the draw can factor into it, but generally the winners in these have been trimmed down to a select 3-4)

The specialization aspect within XC is also one to touch on. I don't know if sprints have better viewing figures in central Europe than longer XC races. However, I do get the impression sprints are a bit more wide open and some nations are more keen to exploit the opportunity there.

Case in point - Slovenia. Over the last decade their entire XC operation has been completely geared around sprints. They have concluded this is their best chance to succeed in XC, while it's harder to compete against Norwegians and others over longer distances. All Slovenia's more significant results in recent times have come in sprints. Also for example in 2018-19 World Cup season Slovenia had 4 women inside sprint world cup top 30, while none in distance world cup.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Well, because of the lottery element of sprints (especially on some of the more chaotic courses like, say, Gatineau a few years ago), there's more chance for an aerobic disadvantage to be wiped out either by crashes, luck (poles breaking etc., competitor crashing) or positioning in a way that tends to balance out in a distance race, much as in cycling there's much less control exerted over one day racing than can be exerted in stage races.

This leads to a real chicken and egg situation where sprints become increasingly predominant in the calendar to the point where some seasons they account for almost half of all races, and if the lottery factor means a bigger cast of characters in sprint races, that is more of a draw than watching the same two or three (or in recent years for the women, one) athletes ski away from everybody in a distance MS, which then becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy; the FIS tilts the calendar more in favour of sprints and short races, which means fewer races for distance specialists, which means fewer people focus on distance races, which makes distance races more predictable, which means FIS tilts the calendar more in favour of sprints, and you get a vicious cycle. With very few races exceeding 10k which falls within the remit of the more durable sprinters, the distance specialist is a moribund species among the women, with the likes of Heidi Weng having to learn to sprint to be competitive and many of them belonging to a rapidly aging group, many of whom have now retired (Steira, Kowalczyk, Böhler, Ishida and their ilk). Even among the younger ones, Nathalie von Siebenthal, who was one of my favourites because she was a throwback distance specialist, has elected to quit.

Luckily among the men, because the distances of those outside of the cycle of 15/10 individuals and sprints have much more variety, there is still a much greater disparity between the sprinters and the distance specialists, and it's comparatively rare you see somebody convert from one extreme to a true all-rounder. Manificat podiuming a sprint is still just as unlikely as Pellegrino podiuming a 50k. That's another question for FIS - when men jump from 15k to 30-35k for their longer distance races, why do women only jump from 10 to 15? Realistically, 20-25 should be much more appropriate, as a staging point between the 10k individual and the 30k. The problem for the women is, they need to hold more distance races to incentivise people learning to specialise in them, but as long as those races remain dull processions for Johaug, they're not as attractive to the viewer as a sprint, and as a competitor, what incentive is there to try to be a distance racer when the best you'll achieve is being the last one to be dropped by TJ? For the men, the bigger problem is breaking the cycle of conservative racing which is akin to what we see in cycling. We've seen a few standout performances in the real distance races in recent years - Johan Olsson in 2013 and Hans Christer Holund in 2019 - but this kind of move is often a solo attack, with few willing to chance their arm early. Snow conditions can be a factor in that, of course - 2015 in Falun saw people trying to make the race but conditions killing the escapees - but all too often men's distance races degenerate into follow-the-leader until the final part, to the point where much of the early race is rendered as pointless as the Men's Team Sprint in Seefeld this year - when the anchormen all just did trackstands at the top of the penultimate hill because nobody wanted to lead down it (and of course, Bolshunov blinked first because he's Bolshunov).

 

[zarnack]

It's a pity, when competitive skiers retire at a relatively young age. Von Siebenthal is only 26. Alex Harvey is just 31, not that old either. I wonder if this has anything to do with financial incentives in each country too? Norwegians usually don't throw in the towel before age 30.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Holund was the MVP of the Skiathlon, he did a ton of work.
Ustiugov is still not at his best, Bolshunov is alreay in great shape.
Spitsov and Roethe were pretty strong durning the 2nd part of the race, but Sundby was the real surprise.

 

[KZD]

Bolshunov finally got his tactics right, great win. By dropping Iversen, Holund got ride of Bolshunov's main rival for the end but no one can blame him since he never won a World Cup race. Iversen must be frustated, since he didn't manage to get neither the win or the World Cup but at least looks like he and Bolshunov will give Klaebo a good fight.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Also, had the three of them gone over the top of the final climb within a couple of seconds of one another, Holund inevitably finishes third. He had to try to rid himself of at least one of the two. And he made the initial move in the first place of course, persisting with it to guarantee himself the podium, much as in the women's race Heidi Weng persisted with the move even after Diggins refused to collaborate for about 4km, because if she stood up, then the group behind would come back and Weng would be far less likely to podium, so was happy to take it to a 1500m shootout with Diggins (which she lost convincingly, which is probably little surprise as Diggins is a more accomplished sprint racer than Heidi even if Heidi has won them - in this venue no less - in the past)

 

[BullsFan22]

Finally Bolshunov skis a tactically good, if not great, race. He also had pretty darn good skis, particularly in the skate portion. He didn't look too stressed. He was smooth, didn't go for any bonus sprints, but wasn't too far off. He was in basically in the same position he was in the skiathlon in Seefeld, but this time he played his cards right. I hope he takes this as a perfect lesson and keeps being tactically astute.
Holund always looks like he is working hard. He seems to have the same pace in sprints that he has in distance races.

Iversen, as he was last year at this time, is in very good shape. He may challenge for the overall, but I am not certain he is durable. He won't last the entire season. He'll have ups and downs or he'll drop off in the 2nd half of the season.

Klaebo looked good and not really that tired when he finished. Of course it's easy to say that watching from the friendly confines of one's home, but to me he didn't seem to flustered, as if he could have given it more.

Ustiugov, yes, he's not in the same form. He looked relaxed during the classic portion and tactically skied well. He just couldn't go with the pace when Holund attacked. On the other hand, I feel like he was too far back in the group to answer and latch on. To me he seemed to have been caught off guard. Then he put in a dig to catch the leaders, but couldn't. He and the other chasers let too big of a gap to the front three. I expected more from him. We'll see what he does tomorrow and for the two skate races next week. I hear his big aim this year is the TDS. Technically he doesn't look as good in the skating as he did when he was at his best three years ago. Maybe that's the back injury he's had over the past couple seasons.
Niskanen looked very good in the classic portion. As you'd expect him to. It'll be tough for him to do as well in skating portions or skate individual races, but he's done quite well so far. I wonder if he'll race in Davos next weekend. If he has an eye on the WC or just the distance WC, he'll go, surely.

Nothing really to say about the women's race. The two questions before all these women's races are or should be, when will Johaug attack and by how much will she win by. Admirable job by Diggins to give it a go in the classic portion to get away from the chasers, and then still have the strength to finish 2nd while battling Weng.

I am guessing Johaug, Weng, Jacobsen for the relay tomorrow. Who will be the 4th member? Anne Kjersti Kalvå (Didrik Tønseth's girlfriend)? 18 year old talent Fossesholm? Haga has really declined since Pyeongchang. It's really surprising to see that. She peaked two seasons ago. Now she's struggling to just get into the top 30. The depth isn't as great for the Norwegians in the women's team as it is in the men's.

Burman had a great race for Sweden today. Surely the best race he's had on the WC tour? No other Swede in sight. Not looking good for their relay aspirations (if they have any) tomorrow. They are in a transition period on the men's side now. The women's team is stacked with talent, from sprints to distance. So many U25 skiers. Pity Karlsson is sick and Andersson injured. Kalla not in form.

The Russian women's team this year is basically Nepryaeva, and she isn't in form at the moment. She also had a horrible changeover in the pit stop. She lost contact with the chasing pack and about 30 seconds to them. Once you lose contact, it's almost always tough to get back.

 

[zarnack]

Well, Holund was incredible in the skating part, leading the whole way. This is kind of turn-around for Bolshunov compared to some previous races, where he was leading the whole way to try to (unsuccessfully) shake off Kläbo. Now he was the superior sprinter in the battle in the end. What concerns the 'tactics' discussion, it's usually the inferior sprinter, who does the hard work. There is no way around it, it's basic logic.

By the way, in the top16 - one Swede, one Finn, the rest only Russians and Norwegians.

In women it looks like Heidi Weng has returned to regular podium form after one poor season. Then again Östberg is missing, so it's not without losses for Norwegians. Note of the day - fine P9 for Moa Lundgren, another young Swedish prospect.

What concerns the relay prospects, then in men I assume Norway I & II and Russia I & II can beat the rest of the world, so the 3rd best country could end in 5th.

In women Norway is a shoe-in, because 75% of Swedish world championship winning team is missing. Although Sweden has enough depth that even their second tier team could well end up in top 3.

 

[BullsFan22]

Well, Holund was incredible in the skating part, leading the whole way. This is kind of turn-around for Bolshunov compared to some previous races, where he was leading the whole way to try to (unsuccessfully) shake off Kläbo. Now he was the superior sprinter in the battle in the end. What concerns the 'tactics' discussion, it's usually the inferior sprinter, who does the hard work. There is no way around it, it's basic logic.

By the way, in the top16 - one Swede, one Finn, the rest only Russians and Norwegians.

In women it looks like Heidi Weng has returned to regular podium form after one poor season. Then again Östberg is missing, so it's not without losses for Norwegians. Note of the day - fine P9 for Moa Lundgren, another young Swedish prospect.

What concerns the relay prospects, then in men I assume Norway I & II and Russia I & II can beat the rest of the world, so the 3rd best country could end in 5th.

In women Norway is a shoe-in, because 75% of Swedish world championship winning team is missing. Although Sweden has enough depth that even their second tier team could well end up in top 3.

Well...in Seefeld last year Bolshunov did a whole lot of work in the skiathlon. After Niskanen was dropped, Bolshunov led the whole way. Apart from the last km or so, he led the entire skate portion, and he was by far the fastest sprinter of the three leading skiers. In the Lahti 2017 skiathlon, when Sundby and Ustiugov broke away from the group around the 20km, both guys led, and Ustiugov had an even greater advantage in terms of sprinting speed over Sundby than Bolshunov did.

 

[zarnack]

Well...in Seefeld last year Bolshunov did a whole lot of work in the skiathlon. After Niskanen was dropped, Bolshunov led the whole way. Apart from the last km or so, he led the entire skate portion, and he was by far the fastest sprinter of the three leading skiers. In the Lahti 2017 skiathlon, when Sundby and Ustiugov broke away from the group around the 20km, both guys led, and Ustiugov had an even greater advantage in terms of sprinting speed over Sundby than Bolshunov did.

Well, there are of course nuances at play. I guess in Seefeld Bolshunov may have feared that Norwegians would try to outsmart him 2:1 in the finish, so he wasn't confident in just sitting there and waiting for the end. In Lahti the two guys had to work together to sustain and increase the advantage over a big group behind.

 

[Norbea]

Interesting to see Didrik Tønseth running cross country European Chamionship. At the moment he is following Filip Ingebrigtsen and is still holding a top 20 position.

 

[zarnack]

Incredible second place for Swiss women biathlon team. Häcki is known to be in good form, while the Gasparin trio really maximized everything to keep up with the top teams.

Also JT.Bö is planning to skip some races in January, so it blows the overall cup wide open. Golden opportunity for Fourcade to capitalize?

 

[Libertine Seguros]

So, in the XC we have relays in deep snow. Comedy from Eurosport International's Anglo commentators during the men's race, as they announce that it's great to have conditions like this because it guarantees excitement deep into the race because nobody can get away... and then spend half the race wittering on about ideas to make relays more interesting because nothing is happening. Patrick Winterton's idea is, as usual, to make everything shorter. He wants to see sprinters doing their thing, and suggests a relay of 4 x 2,5km "because that will give the endurance specialists something to fight for, as well as meaning we get to see the sprinters competing at their best, not struggling through it", seemingly forgetting that we already have a relay event for sprint specialists, which is the Team Sprint. And it is, of course, usually awful in my opinion. His second suggestion is to have ever-decreasing relay leg lengths to balance distance and sprint specialisms, which although gimmicky, is not that unreasonable a concept. Unfortunately, his idea is 1 x 5k, 1 x 3k, 1 x 2k, 1 x 1k, because he thinks making an endurance sport without endurance is good, because he's an idiot. Mike Dixon is usually the voice of reason, defending Classic technique, individual starts and longer races, but I think he just couldn't be bothered to argue on this particular occasion. Although he has been responsible for his fair share of utter nonsense recently - such as when Patrick asked him during yesterday's women's pursuit if Johaug kept winning because she just works harder, and Mike paused, looked at her technique for a second and said "I think so, yes". Even taking any Clinic implications out of it, there's clearly more to Johaug's domination than just "working harder".

Anyway, on the actual RACES, the women's one was reasonable for the classic legs, but as soon as Johaug was tagged in, the usual pattern asserted itself. Apart from the eulogies going on in the commentary because the Americans were dropped (very premature eulogies of course since they finished 2nd), it seemed to be a fairly open race, with the conditions preventing any real break among the biggest teams. The Swedes being without Karlsson, Andersson and Nilsson clearly showed toward the end of the race, and they were fading, but considering it was effectively Sweden II + Charlotte Kalla, that's not too bad. Anna Nechaevskaya may have raced her last on Russia I, dropping right from the front of the field to handing over in line with Russia II (although the consistency of the Russian athletes must be commended as in both genders both teams finished together - just they were in a better position in the men's race!). The Finns really need another skater, because Kyllönen just looked lost out there against Kalla and Brennan I thought, and while she's clearly at a higher level than before, it's not like Brennan, at 31, is making leaps-and-bounds improvements of the kind we might expect from the younger athletes. Moa Lundgren fought well but Jessie Diggins is just a higher level athlete than her, no shame in losing out there, though it was kind of funny how Weng insisted on going for best leg time to exorcise the ghosts of losing to Diggins the day before.

The men's relay was rather too much of a tetchy affair with nobody really keen to push the pace because of the heavy going. It also made passing and attacking on the hill difficult unless you were in the front already, because there weren't many lanes to travel in once they got into the skate legs. Again Finland appeared to lack depth, especially as they (rightly) expended their best card, Niskanen, on a classic leg seeing as that is his speciality. For Norway I the folly of choosing Finn Hågen Krogh as the anchor leg came back to bite them I thought, he was clearly not on his best form, and there were athletes who had outperformed him on Norway II, albeit perhaps without the sprint finish that he has, given that Klæbo and Iversen were both rested. The Russian team were particularly impressive with their teamwork at the last; I suspected at first that when Melnichenko pushed on for Russia I, Ustiugov would slow down and force the others to try to come round him and give Melnichenko a gap, and when he didn't, and then attacked, I thought that there would be some infighting in Russia and that would cost them as they'd be the strongest on the climb but allow others to stay with them. Of course, they didn't, and the two pulled away. I mean, we can ask the question "what is Ustiugov doing on Russia II in the first place?", especially with Bolshunov rested, but regardless, he seems to be showing signs of his best again at last, and the duo opened up a huge gap on Krogh, Turtveit and Jonas Dobler, who was easily outmatched in the sprint but, to be honest, I think the Germans should probably be happy with being there to sprint for the podium, even if it just highlights the problem that we were talking about above that the top 4 teams in the first relay of the season are Russia II, Russia I, Norway I and Norway II, and only 11 teams made the start.

It's worth highlighting: 11 men's teams across 9 countries (Norway and Russia both submitted two teams) entered the relay, and 13 women's teams, across 10 countries (Japan did not enter a men's team, plus USA also submitted a second women's team, but they did not finish), entered theirs. Over in Sweden, the IBU had 26 men's teams and 21 women's teams enter their relays, and they do not allow for multiple teams per nation (otherwise Germany, Norway, Russia and France would all potentially do so at least for the men, probably for both genders, plus maybe Sweden since it's their home World Cup, and maybe Ukraine for the women). Admittedly most have little hope of winning anything in either sport, but not all. The following teams entered a biathlon relay and not an XC one:

• Austria
• Belarus
• Bulgaria
• Canada
• Czech Republic
• Estonia
• Italy
• Korea
• Latvia (men only)
• Lithuania (men only)
• Poland
• Romania (men only)
• Slovakia
• Slovenia
• Switzerland
• Ukraine

Japan and Slovakia only entered a men's relay in biathlon, Japan only entered a women's relay in XC.

Now, plenty of these are just chilling in the backfield, won't pick up much TV time and are often there for the hope of some Nations Cup points and for experience for developing athletes - the likes of Bulgaria's women, Romania, the Baltic states (other than Estonia's women, who are reasonable), Korea, Slovenia do not have four top level athletes (nor do Finland for that matter, as XC still reigns there) but will try to develop new ones by putting the few good athletes they have first and preserving spots. Some are established midfield nations who have four decent athletes but no real stars - Canada, Ukraine's men (the women are headed that direction, but used to be threats to win) and Switzerland (the surprise podium today notwithstanding). Others are genuine candidates to win races though, especially Austria's men and Italy's women, which include the top 2 in the overall World Cup last year. And several are historically strong XC skiing nations, for which it is pretty ridiculous that they can't even muster a team at the start for a relay. Italy? Czech Republic? Switzerland? Canada? These are XC heartlands with strong traditions of the sport, with some big names in very recent history. Poland - is it that the generation of youngsters inspired by Justyna Kowalczyk haven't filtered through yet, or is that bump in interest not really transpiring? Austria in fairness probably would enter a team but for the suspensions following the Seefeld drugs bust.

I see the loss of teams like Italy, the Czechs and the Swiss as a very dangerous sign for cross-country. It will always play second fiddle to ski jumping in Poland, and it will always play second fiddle to biathlon in Germany. But those countries always should have at least some people coming through. It can't just be about global warming and climate change either, because if you look at the calendar, a lot of events across all Nordic sport are held in Italy, France, Switzerland, Austria, Slovenia, specifically because of high altitude that means there is reliable snow. When events have been cancelled or relocated in recent years, the general tendency has been to move them to higher altitude places. When weather has threatened venues, it's typically been the lower to mid altitude venues (Oberhof and Duszniki-Zdrój for example), and the return of events at places like Lenzerheide and Cogne speaks of trying to resolve this by seeking out the higher altitude venues for events on the fringes of the season's dates.

 

[zarnack]

What an impressive in-depth post, Libertine.

First of all, on XC relays. Snowfall obviously makes breaking away harder, hence the gaps were smaller than you would normally expect. I'm surprised that Norway in front of their home crowd didn't put out better teams in men. With so many top skiers missing it was almost like Norway B and Norway C out there. I think it shows the relative value of relays and countries aren't really bothered by it much? Still good enough to beat everyone bar Russia though.

With snowfall you must have the best skiers in freestyle though, because in classic it's harder to break away than in skating. Germany was the 3rd best country, maybe somewhat surprisingly. But it also kind of highlights they didn't have a spectacularly weak link in the team like Sweden, Finland and France seemed to have.

And indeed it looks like cross-country skiing is having the same trouble as nordic combined in finding enough countries for team events. I think it shows the decline of the sport, particularly in terms of viewership decline, which directly affects sponsorship and money generated. Biathlon usually offers a much greater show, while countries aren't bothered to throw money at trying to compete with Norwegians in a relative niche sport that XC is. In biathlon you don't need to be a grade A skier to have a shot at success. And most of these countries, who now lack grade A skiers, still have enough pool of grade B and grade C skiers, who can reach success in biathlon with good shooting.

In the end what it means for team events within XC is that team sprint is making further hay on the situation. More countries can find 2 competitive or at least reasonable skiers, than 4. Also in team sprint there is more unpredictability and luck can play some role in the outcome. And as Slovenian women proved in Seefeld they didn't even need luck, they were up there on merit.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Is it time for a mixed relay in XC? They've experimented with it a little, but I think that might help, with one classic and one skate skier per gender. You could do it F-M-F-M to keep the classic-classic-skate-skate alineation, or you could go F(C)-F(F)-M(C)-M(F). Perhaps some more teams could be incentivised to enter? The other thing that's worth noting is that biathlon offers less of a bias toward the first few positions in the points given out. This does mean that sometimes consistently being good is better rewarded than being excellent, but it does make lesser positions worth fighting for more. Although it is also worth noting that there is the problem that not entering more than one team per country does sometimes mean nation-switchers. Although Michael Rösch has now retired, Belgium's lead athletes are still imports (Florent Claude is French, Lotte Lie is Norwegian), while Belarus and Ukraine have long had numbers padded out by Russians with some familial ties or defecting for sporting reasons (plus Ukraine today were anchored by Darya Blashko, an ethnic Ukrainian born and raised in Belarus), which can lend a slight artificiality to the competitiveness of at least the former (the current Ukrainian team includes fewer Russians, though Ekaterina Bekh, the Junior World Champion they have, is a Russian import, and they have some on the IBU Cup, but the core of Dzhima, Pidhrushna, the Semerenkos, Merkushyna, they're all Ukrainian-born). It's that central European axis that the FIS should be worried about, I feel. It's hard not to think that if they trained specifically for XC, that people like Lukas Hofer or Markéta Davidová could be more competitive than the Italian and Czech XC teams (Pellegrino excepted, but he's a sprinter only), while Germany we know all about; again, Benedikt Doll and Johannes Kühn could probably make it as XC athletes of a decent level if that's what they trained for, while Denise Herrmann we know all about. XC will probably never be king in Germany, but the big alarm bells will be that Italy-Switzerland-Austria-Slovenia-Czech Republic axis where athletes are retiring and not being replaced, and prospects are hæmorrhaging to other sports.

NoCo is a bit of a different problem. Realistically, you aren't going to get converts to NoCo from XC, only from ski jumping. And anyone who is good enough at the jumping portion of NoCo will likely be better served specialising in it, like we've seen recently from Evgeny Klimov, who was an OK prospect as a NoCo athlete, but his skiing was just too poor at the World Cup level so he switched to ski jumping only. Ski jumping is such a niche skill that you really need to pick up young, and realistically if you're a cross-country skier looking to switch sports, biathlon is far more appealing than NoCo - audiences are bigger, finances are better, the ability to convert is more achievable and the risk of injury is lower. When I've been to all-the-games-in-one FIS events, such as in Lillehammer or Lahti, the NoCo has been treated as the red-headed stepchild, with the jump held bright and early before the crowd gets there, and the ski treated as the piss break between XC events. It seems to come and go in waves in different nations depending on who is going well. The French were all over the results sheet while Jason Lamy Chappuis was about, but when he retired, funding just dropped through the floor and people like François Braud, who had been pretty good, suddenly weren't. Austria similarly fell away after Felix Gottwald retired. Germany then dominated for a few years, while Eric Frenzel was the top man, with Rießle, Edelmann, Rydzek and their like dominating the sport, but now that group is ageing, and with Jarl Magnus Riiber becoming a supertalent, Norway is suddenly upping the interest and uncovering talents and they're dominating. I'm sure in 3-4 years somebody else will discover a big talent, and then they will rise to the top en masse.

The other concept I thought of for XC was a "mix" team like you sometimes see to make up the numbers in other sports. There are some reasonable skiers who don't have enough numbers in their team to enter one. I don't mean including e.g. Canadians or Czechs, because they should have enough to enter a team. But people like, say, Irineu Esteve Altamiras and Andrew Musgrave could be teamed together to make a not unreasonable group.

 

[zarnack]

By the way, what concerns decline of distance XC, then looking at its history I gather the turning point was around the year 2010. It was around that year since when we stopped having influx of new young talents outside a selected few countries. Since then it has all been about the retirement of the old guard. One by one they have been leaving, with no replacement. It's a matter of time before someone like Manificat has retired too, who is like a dinosaur left from the pre-2011 era. And so gradually competition has been diminishing. I leave out sprints, because they are a bit of a special case and there has been influx of talents from more recently too.

My question is - what happened around 2010? Was it the after-effects of the 2008-09 economic recession after which countries decided - we need to slash budgets, and sorry XC isn't important enough to sustain it, so that's it? Which meant that budgets for youth development were slashed, while established stars could still keep going as long as they were successful and getting medals. Of course I don't see a way to reverse these decisions any more, given that XC doesn't leave itself in a positive light any more, and the future prospects of winter sports are in a precarious situation anyway.