Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

[Libertine Seguros]

Are there any cooler events in endurance based winter sports than men's relay in biathlon?

Yea - women's relay in biathlon

 

[Bubba]

Yea - women's relay in biathlon

Haha!
Fair enough!
(I thoroughly enjoy it, but as in most womens sport you normally don't have quite the same debth)

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I think Relay rules really need to be changed. Those extra bullets almost eliminate the shooting part of the competition, but on the other hand one bad shooting can ruin your whole race which is not the case in other events. In other events a penalty for every miss is always the same.

Ski speed is already the more important part of the biathlon (I'd say 70% - 30% in favor of skiing). They need to balance the disciplines.

Maybe make a penalty loop 50 meters longer in the sprint and mass start, eliminate the extra bullets in relays. And make it a 45 seconds penalty in the individual.

Now the rules are just so unbalanced even among the disciplines let alone the two components of the sport.

Definitely disagree with changing the Individual. They have the "Short Individual" for that. The Individual is the best format for producing surprises, because it has the heaviest penalty for a miss, so shooting is proportionately more important - but it then has the longest and toughest ski loops to compensate. A few years ago you'd have people who had no chance of podiuming any other event scoring surprise podiums, like Anna Maria Nilsson and Darya Yurkevich, and then in recent years you've had races where people who wouldn't usually be trusted to be accurate take far more time over their shots than they would be able to in the sprint or the head to head races, got the shooting right and then made up the time lost on the ski speed, enabling things like Johannes Kühn hitting the podium with 20/20. If you reduce the penalty for a miss, the pressure on that shoot becomes less, and it becomes easier to hit the targets as a result.

I'd also say that one thing that is noticeable is that the shooting is more important as a variable in the women's races than the men's. This is because except in the Single Mixed and (this season) the Mixed Relay the women ski a shorter total distance (25% less in sprint and individual, 20% less in pursuit and relay and 17% less in mass start) but the penalty loop is the same length; in addition to this the penalty loop takes a bit longer to ski for the women than it does for the men, so you see something of a wider spread between the best and worst skiers among the top contenders as a result (save for the occasional outlier like Johannes).

The Single Mixed is the one where maybe they can get rid of the reloads, especially bearing in mind the 75m loop in that race, but that's a race which has historically lived and died on shooting anyway - but the conventional relay is fine. Just today Norway had the on-paper best team and the only teams strong enough to challenge them had messed the race up before we got to the point of potential drama with Vetle racing the anchor leg off of not having raced in weeks.

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Erik Lesser & Arnd Peiffer record a podcast from time to time. They did an episode with Simon Schempp a few days ago. They spoke about the back issues that both Schempp and also Lesser had and still have. When Lesser asked Simon about this, Schempp became quite defensive and tries to circumnavigate the topic. In the end, you can figure out of context, that both have basically had the same workload of training as everyone else for years without any adaption, based on their back issues. It seems crazy to me. They seem to do a lot there like back in the old days. Also the shooting approach. Daniel Böhm told, that he bettered his standing shooting, while working on his own terms with Raphaël Poirée. The approach by Poirée was very intuitive, while in Germany the do a very conservative approach, that has to be followed strictly.

It's 100% the coaches fault to nominate Erik for the relay. He has an injury, he states that and also makes clear on live television, that it's not right, that he is on the team at these worlds and still he has to start today.

 

[Bubba]

Yea - women's relay in biathlon

I can ad that I prefer the women's relay ahead of all other men & womens events though!

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Haha!
Fair enough!
(I thoroughly enjoy it, but as in most womens sport you normally don't have quite the same debth)

That's kind of why you got a better race today though - there are no teams which are ridiculously top-down strong in women's biathlon. Even the Norwegians, they have two who are among the very best, Ingrid who is a major talent, and then they've struggled for years to fill that fourth spot, people like Fenne and Horn haven't been reliable enough, Solemdal was continuing there long after she'd ceased to be a threat in her own right, and Knotten had had a couple of disasters. It may well be that Ida Lien becomes the stable fourth part of that relay, but we don't know that yet. France and Germany have the ability to field a team that are all strong, but Norway have two of the three fastest and the top two in the World Cup. But there's also several teams that have enough people who are top class that they can compete with a couple of weaker athletes on other legs if they have good days or if the big teams make mistakes - which with up-and-down shooters like Denise Herrmann and Tiril Eckhoff around, is always a possibility. Italy have Wierer and Vittozzi, Belarus have Alimbekava and Sola, Ukraine have Dzhima and Pidhrushna, the Swedes have the Öberg sisters and a revolving cast of "can be podium contenders on their day" support, the Austrians seem to be building a pretty good team around Hauser now, Russia have no superstars but a lot of decent-to-good athletes.

In the men's relays there are a few teams which have the top talent concentrated into them, and the chances of a wildcard outsider breaking into that group is fairly slim - although it is improving with the Italians and Ukrainians looking decent going forward. We will often find the bigger teams make mistakes and fall from contention but in the end their strength in depth means they end up in the top positions by the time the race finishes, just because the comparative qualities of the 4th athletes in these teams relative to the competition is much more pronounced. That means that when you get a real close tussle between the big nations, it can be some of the best racing you'll see... but if one team races into a big lead as we saw today, the chance of them being brought back is much smaller too.

 

[zarnack]

As for potential changes, I thought that maybe have 2 reloads instead of 3 in relays. I mean 3 is a lot of opportunities to try to get the missed targets down. Maybe tone that a wee bit down.

I'd also say that one thing that is noticeable is that the shooting is more important as a variable in the women's races than the men's. This is because except in the Single Mixed and (this season) the Mixed Relay the women ski a shorter total distance (25% less in sprint and individual, 20% less in pursuit and relay and 17% less in mass start) but the penalty loop is the same length; in addition to this the penalty loop takes a bit longer to ski for the women than it does for the men, so you see something of a wider spread between the best and worst skiers among the top contenders as a result (save for the occasional outlier like Johannes).

I thought about this during relays too. Women ski 2 km loops, while men ski 2.5 km. So women have less opportunity to make a difference on the ski trails. Once upon a time women also skied 4x7.5 km relays, so this begs the question whether shortening their relay was the right step. Not sure about the answer either way.

 

[zarnack]

Maybe make a penalty loop 50 meters longer in the sprint and mass start, eliminate the extra bullets in relays. And make it a 45 seconds penalty in the individual.

In mass-starts shooting is of significant importance already anyway. This is because for the first 2-3 laps they often ski in groups and anyone who misses a target, drops some way behind the leaders. It's very difficult to make up lost ground unless you are a top skier. So whoever misses early usually drops out of contention in mass-starts, unless (s)he is a great skier. And well the final shooting showdown usually decides the winner. So mass-starts are very shooting based. Not saying whether this is right or wrong, just that it doesn't need longer penalty loops.

 

[BullsFan22]

Still the mass starts to go, but German biathlon isn’t looking too good these days. If next season and the Olympics go the same way, I imagine there will be some changes. How long will Herrmann stick around? This is her 5th season in Biathlon. She’ll be 33 at the start of next season. Can’t imagine she’ll continue until 2026.

 

[zarnack]

Still the mass starts to go, but German biathlon isn’t looking too good these days. If next season and the Olympics go the same way, I imagine there will be some changes. How long will Herrmann stick around? This is her 5th season in Biathlon. She’ll be 33 at the start of next season. Can’t imagine she’ll continue until 2026.

Germany indeed has a problem in their hands with generation change. Schempp is gone, Lesser is on the brink of getting over the hill. And Peiffer is at an age, where he doesn't have many years left on top level either. I think today's 7th place in men's relay may be an introduction of placings German men have to get more regularly used to in the future... Comparatively speaking German women are better off than their male counterparts, though the situation there is by no means great either.

Among major biathlon nations Norway (10 medals so far), France, Sweden (both 6) have been stealing the show so far. Germany (2) and Russia (1) have some thinking to do. Russia of course has a lot of decent mid-tier biathletes, but somehow no-one, who can star at the front, hence they struggle to get medals in anything other than team events.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

German men had a doldrums period about ten years ago when people like Greis and Wolf were getting old, and people like Peiffer and Schempp were young upstarts who would only periodically get it together. The German men are killing the IBU Cup at the moment, but their pace seems down compared to the Norwegians and French and this is a bit of a concern for them - they may well find themselves getting stuck in the same kind of limbo as the Russians are in with a lot of mid tier athletes but almost no stars (the Russians do have Loginov, but he's having a bad year). The women had a more recent doldrums period, after the retirement of Neuner in 2012, and Henkel kind of held the team together (with help periodically from Gössner) until the next generation was ready. Preuss and Herrmann may find themselves in a similar position in the coming years. The problem was at that point they had Hinz, Dahlmeier and Preuss coming through juniors looking like future stars so it wasn't a long wait. There are some promising young athletes in their junior and IBU ranks, but none that I look at and say "yes, they're nailed on to be top level World Cup talent" like I could with Dahlmeier and Preuss.

Then again, Sweden had a few years where they fell to complete irrelevance status among the women and were mid-pack journeymen at best save for Fredrik Lindström in the men, and they've turned it around.

 

[search]

Engadin will step in for the Oslo XC event. 10km/15km C mass start, followed by a 30km/50km F pursuit - which is probably about as good a replacement as possible?!

Oslo World Cup weekend rescheduled to Engadin (SUI)

www.fis-ski.com

 

[roundabout]

euhhh, I mean it's good that the 50 was not completely cancelled, but that doesn't look like a difficult course at all

 

[Erwin]

Having a pursuit based on a 15 km mass start is a complete joke. FIS seems to hate interval starts, too bad. At least there is the altitude and the competitions are organized in the first place.

 

[titan31]

That's kind of why you got a better race today though - there are no teams which are ridiculously top-down strong in women's biathlon. Even the Norwegians, they have two who are among the very best, Ingrid who is a major talent, and then they've struggled for years to fill that fourth spot, people like Fenne and Horn haven't been reliable enough, Solemdal was continuing there long after she'd ceased to be a threat in her own right, and Knotten had had a couple of disasters. It may well be that Ida Lien becomes the stable fourth part of that relay, but we don't know that yet. France and Germany have the ability to field a team that are all strong, but Norway have two of the three fastest and the top two in the World Cup. But there's also several teams that have enough people who are top class that they can compete with a couple of weaker athletes on other legs if they have good days or if the big teams make mistakes - which with up-and-down shooters like Denise Herrmann and Tiril Eckhoff around, is always a possibility. Italy have Wierer and Vittozzi, Belarus have Alimbekava and Sola, Ukraine have Dzhima and Pidhrushna, the Swedes have the Öberg sisters and a revolving cast of "can be podium contenders on their day" support, the Austrians seem to be building a pretty good team around Hauser now, Russia have no superstars but a lot of decent-to-good athletes.

In the men's relays there are a few teams which have the top talent concentrated into them, and the chances of a wildcard outsider breaking into that group is fairly slim - although it is improving with the Italians and Ukrainians looking decent going forward. We will often find the bigger teams make mistakes and fall from contention but in the end their strength in depth means they end up in the top positions by the time the race finishes, just because the comparative qualities of the 4th athletes in these teams relative to the competition is much more pronounced. That means that when you get a real close tussle between the big nations, it can be some of the best racing you'll see... but if one team races into a big lead as we saw today, the chance of them being brought back is much smaller too.

Not sure that's really true with the men's relay. Norway are a complete outlier where they have 5 of the top 15 in the world and all 4 of the top 4, and France are all very strong although Desthieux, Guigonat and Claude arent consistent at the top level, but after that none of the nations stand out.

Sweden have Ponsilouma and Samuelson but Nelin and Femling aren't that strong. Germany likewise where their 4th athlete is weak even if the main 3 are on form and healthy. Russia don't have a strong 4.

It's really just Norway that throw it out on the men's side where they've a ridiculous amount of talent.

 

[zarnack]

Norwegians also have some more 21/22-y-o athletes running rings around others on IBU Cup, so looks like Norwegian dominance in men's biathlon isn't going to disappear anywhere. They are there to stay, while France seems firmly settled to be force #2 for a while as well.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Problem is really that Germany have yet to replace Schempp and Russia Shipulin. For years it was the same four teams at the top all year round, now Norway and France are tier 1, Germany and Russia (along with probably Sweden) tier 2, then you have the people who have half a strong team, like Italy, Ukraine, Austria who can mix it up with them on a good day. Lesser-Rees-Peiffer-Doll, on paper, is still a strong team, but it's a clear step below the Norwegian and French quartets and there is an element of their best years getting further into the past (ironically except for Peiffer, who's the oldest of the four).

This season is probably a bit of an anomaly, the French have almost disappeared from relevance entirely at the IBU Cup level, and the Norwegians were killing it early season and now the Germans are matching them, but looking at the teams, the Norwegian IBU Cup team is a couple of World Cup overspill guys and a bunch of young guys, all performing at the same level, the German IBU Cup team is a couple of World Cup overspill guys performing well and some young (but not as young as the Norwegians) guys performing decently but nothing like as well as the Norwegian young guys, and the French IBU Cup team is pretty much all young but not really performing at the moment. A bunch of those French guys were really good previously and suddenly skating as if stuck in treacle, but it can't be to do with Covid concerns regards training and competition as I thought initially, because their World Cup team is still the second strongest team out there.

 

[zarnack]

The consistency of Hauser is really amazing these days. Only very few can be in podium contention in pretty much every race. If Hauser had the form already from the beginning of the season, that she has had since January, she would be a firm world cup contender. Well, maybe next season then?

And Bendika from Latvia was so close to being a major surprise podium contender.

 

[titan31]

I think Italy will be strong. Bionaz and Giacomel have been performing pretty well considering their age. If they continue to develop, Italy could have a good 4 in the men's relay with them, Windisch and Hofer.

Fairly impressive ski performance from Eckhoff there missing 3 and only being 20 seconds down. Happy for Tandrevold too, she looks like shes got her confidence back so could be a potential race winner the rest of the season. Felt bad for Vitozzi though, she faded horribly on the last lap

 

[Libertine Seguros]

The consistency of Hauser is really amazing these days. Only very few can be in podium contention in pretty much every race. If Hauser had the form already from the beginning of the season, that she has had since January, she would be a firm world cup contender. Well, maybe next season then?

And Bendika from Latvia was so close to being a major surprise podium contender.

Oh, I think Hauser had the ski form early season, she's made a clear step up in that area, but her shooting was impacted negatively as a result. Her best course time rank prior to this season was 11th in the MS at Annecy last season, she was at or around that level in Kontiolahti and then since Hochfilzen she's settled into the lower end of the top 10 for ski times consistently with the occasional top 5. Now that she's stabilised the shooting back to where it was previously, but is skiing consistently at a higher level, she's a continual threat to the podium.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Norway stretching every possible rule to gain advantages. The collaboration with the Chinese team, Bjoerndalen trainer, cover also the waxing team. Now, when China can't participate due to Covid restrictions, the Norwegians shamelessly announces they will use 8 waxers instead of the allowed 6. Norwegian Biathlon boss Per-Arne Botnan: "now we can have 8 waxers instead of 6!"

Well, it worked out well for them ey?

 

[Samu Cuenca]

A shame both Fak and Eder missed in the end. They would have been overtaken by Lægreid anyway, but they would have gotten medals. And it's always good to se someone shoot clear, but it wasn't to be.

Meanwhile, Jacquelin is having the worst day of his life

 

[zarnack]

Lägreid really seems like an iceman to deliver so consistently at the top level. And he is now pretty much up there with JTB in the world cup overall as well. Kind of odd how JTB skis consistently faster, but rarely truly delivers in the shooting range these days.

Well, so the WCH are finished. All in all Norway in a class of their own. 7 golds and 14 medals. But given what we have seen during the world cup season, that's no surprise. They are ruling the show these days.

So in the end 9 medal countries. Fak didn't have stamina on the final lap to add one more to the list, just like Vittozzi didn't have in women's race.

For Italy this is of course a major disappointment to leave empty-handed after having won 2 golds in each of the previous two championships. Wierer hasn't been as great this season as in the previous two. And others in their team are solid, but not really sure medal contenders. They need stars to align to deliver, which is what happened to Windisch 2 years ago. Depth of Italian team also usually makes them a threat in mixed relays, but didn't work out this time either.

 

[Silhouette]

JTB has made changes to his rifle just before the championships. So far I don't think it's been a success.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Well, I am beginning to wonder whether Oberstdorf is in serious danger. It hast been super warm for the last days and now Oberstorf will see temperatures of almost 20 degrees all week long. Surely all the snow will melt away. So they will habve to bring in snow with trucks I suppose. This most likely will mean short loops. Could be horrible.