The late schedule (16:00 qualification; 18:30 heats) will ensure colder temperatures, which means slower snow, and if there’s wind (from what I see there shouldn’t be too much, certainly not as much as there was for the women’s skiathlon) that will make things tricky. I think Klæbo’s strengths could be neutralized. It could benefit power sprinters like Ustiugov and Bolshunov and the French guys. Of course nobody really knows what sort of form Ustiugov is in, not really sure even he knows, but if he’s in decent form you’d expect him to use his power on the second long hill to try and soften the race up. If optimal shape he’s capable of pushing from the gun and really breaking up the heats he is in. I don’t think that will happen tomorrow, because I don’t think he’s in the 2012-2018 form, certainly not 2016-2017, his best season to date, where he’d win qualification by 3 or 4 seconds. Maybe he’ll play it tactical and use his speed on the long back stretch and last 150-200 meters, I don’t know. Having enough luck will be in play as well I think. Who picks what heat, obstructions and crashes (hopefully we have none of that, at least the course is wide enough for passing opportunities), how much rest in between heats, pacing, etc.
Personally I’d like to see Ustiugov and Pellegrino get on the podium. Ustiugov fell in the final in Sochi in 2014, when it looked like he could challenge for the win. Then wasn’t allowed in Korea, plus the injuries and illnesses, so it would be huge if he can get a medal of any color. Pellegrino last big chance, IMO. He is two years older than Ustiugov and while he does have a medal from 2018, I am sure he’d like gold this time. He hasn’t been to impressive this season but I think he’s getting better, and De Fabiani’s ston result in the skiathlon yesterday means he should be in solid form, as they’ve trained together.