Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

[python]

..had a chanse to take a closer look at the results and decided to add some observation that seem interesting or significant for the ultimate rce...

the swedes unquestionably had the best skis today and, more important, they clearly used the rarely seen in xc skiing a SUCCESSFULL TEAM tactic.

....emil had clearly busted himself in front as much for a team as any sprinter could. halfvarsson's high pacing isn't going to surprise anyone, but marcus' keeping up with the classic storm troopers was a pleasant surprise. hellner knows as well as any one that he's at best only 80% as efficient at the classic style as at skating. my man danny richardsson was certainly another big winner today - closing in from almost a 50 second deficit to barely a dozen seconds.

everyone is sweden knows that none of these guys, except for marcus hellner, would matter come alp cermis climb. in that sense the swedes performed splendidly today !

another huge winner today was alex harvey. smart, smooth, springy.

finally, about the conditions..it was a slog almost on water skis in purée

the conditions sure masked some performances due to a better ski prep while punishing others less lucky. among the punished were some russians whose team overall almost completely consist of the classic specialists. so much more impressive was vyleg.

cologna should fear him.

 

[Pazuzu]

Unreal domination by Björgen.

What's scary is that she typically saves her best performances for the World Championship/Olympics! Maybe she figures that she's won enough medals, that she feels comfortable taking a shot at dominating an entire season in a WC/Olympic year. Can't wait to see how this plays out.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

What's scary is that she typically saves her best performances for the World Championship/Olympics! Maybe she figures that she's won enough medals, that she feels comfortable taking a shot at dominating an entire season in a WC/Olympic year. Can't wait to see how this plays out.

On the other hand, the Tour de Ski is the only thing she hasn't won, so maybe she's giving it a proper tilt this year, seeing Justyna's not at her best. They had an interesting fight on the Alpe Cermis a couple of years ago that Justyna won, but Therese Johaug last year was the first time a Norwegian won the event (despite her having set the best time on Cermis every year since she started racing it, she'd always be too far down to catch Kowalczyk).

I can't really envision a scenario where she loses it from here either. Johaug and Weng are the most likely to challenge, but they will surely lose more time in the sprint, and then even if they stay with Marit the rest of the way and she doesn't get any bonus seconds, they're leaving themselves with too much to do on the Alpe, even if it should suit both of them far better than Marit.

I feel a bit bad for Heidi Weng that she hasn't won a World Cup race yet. She's always up there in the tougher races, but is continually skiing along with Johaug behind Bjørgen, or losing out to one of the two in an individual start. But lots of less well-established racers have managed to win races, albeit most of them being sprinters, where chance plays much more of a role.

 

[Ferminal]

..had a chanse to take a closer look at the results and decided to add some observation that seem interesting or significant for the ultimate rce...

the swedes unquestionably had the best skis today and, more important, they clearly used the rarely seen in xc skiing a SUCCESSFULL TEAM tactic.

....emil had clearly busted himself in front as much for a team as any sprinter could. halfvarsson's high pacing isn't going to surprise anyone, but marcus' keeping up with the classic storm troopers was a pleasant surprise. hellner knows as well as any one that he's at best only 80% as efficient at the classic style as at skating. my man danny richardsson was certainly another big winner today - closing in from almost a 50 second deficit to barely a dozen seconds.

everyone is sweden knows that none of these guys, except for marcus hellner, would matter come alp cermis climb. in that sense the swedes performed splendidly today !

another huge winner today was alex harvey. smart, smooth, springy.

finally, about the conditions..it was a slog almost on water skis in purée

the conditions sure masked some performances due to a better ski prep while punishing others less lucky. among the punished were some russians whose team overall almost completely consist of the classic specialists. so much more impressive was vyleg.

cologna should fear him.

On form Hellner is probably the best of the favourites on Cermis? With only a sprint and 10k classic before the long pursuit there isn't much room for Cologna to make the requisite ground. It makes the last 10km of the pursuit and the mass start classic as the most critical points of the tour.

I know it's early but I think it might be hard to pick the winner before the start on the final day with (Northug) Cologna being chased within a minute by potentially 4-5 contenders. Hopefully they all make the cut in the sprint tomorrow.

 

[python]

On form Hellner is probably the best of the favourites on Cermis? With only a sprint and 10k classic before the long pursuit there isn't much room for Cologna to make the requisite ground. It makes the last 10km of the pursuit and the mass start classic as the most critical points of the tour.

I know it's early but I think it might be hard to pick the winner before the start on the final day with (Northug) Cologna being chased within a minute by potentially 4-5 contenders. Hopefully they all make the cut in the sprint tomorrow.

i think you have a point - the 2 remaining classic races are the key if hellner is to win overall atop alp cermis. therefore, it would make sense to try to predict, how much arrears can he afford to still be able to overcome it up the last climb ?

hellner is easily one of the best climbers. with duerrr and legkov out this year, he IS the best (the older record of clara etc is irrelevant)

here's the official record of last years (just the climb):

2014 - neither cologna, vyleg nor hellner took part. so, any data would be irrelevant.

2013
1. 16:57 Marcus HELLNER
10. 17:33 +00:36 Dario COLOGNA
11. 17:54 +00:57 Maxim VYLEGZHANIN
21. 18:20 +01:23 Petter jr. NORTHUG

2012
.....
7. 17.10.3 Marcus Hellner
(the important part was that marcus in a personal battle for 2nd, caught and spit out northug, besting him by 1:20. he also beat cologna by a full minute, but it was irrelevant b/c he 'took it easy' being unreachable.)

the other proven super climbers on alp cermis that are in THIS year - clara, babikov, roethe, manificat, di centa - usually mange to lose too many minutes in between to matter.

the conclusion i can draw from the data is that if hellner is within 30 seconds of cologna, and 1:30 off northug, he should beat both uphill. to repeat, i am convinced hellner is the strongest climber of the remaining contenders - vyleg, harvey, dyrhaug, belov and sundby - those that imo will fight for the podium.

there is not enough OBJECTIVE data to predict hellner against those.

 

[Bavarianrider]

People, really should stop overestimating that final climb.
It's only a frikkin 17 minutes.
In a realy man on man battle noway you can really make that big gaps. At least not on a guy like Cologna. Northug is a different story.

 

[python]

people should really stop UNDERESTIMATING the final climb as it was shown by the objective, hard data....if people dont like the final climb they should freaking stop reading the posts about it.

 

[Bavarianrider]

people should really stop UNDERESTIMATING the final climb as it was shown by the objective, hard data....if people dont like the final climb they should freaking stop reading the posts about it.

Sorry, i have to disagree.
Every year we here about that super tough hard, legendary, final climb.
Well fact of the matter is, it's not even a 400m elevation gain. That's not all that impressive.
For the men it's a 17-18 minutes effort. That's comparable to a 10km race. Minus the downhills a 10km race for the men has roughly the same amount of effort time.

 

[python]

men quals are half through...northug just posted the fastest time. dont know if it'll stick but some surprises are already 'sticking out' - hellner more than 12 sec back in 22 nd, cologna at 7 sec etc. i doubt marcus will make the 30 with so many strong are to start

and of course bjoergen blitzed the little girls....

 

[meat puppet]

Sorry, i have to disagree.
Every year we here about that super tough hard, legendary, final climb.
Well fact of the matter is, it's not even a 400m elevation gain. That's not all that impressive.
For the men it's a 17-18 minutes effort. That's comparable to a 10km race. Minus the downhills a 10km race for the men has roughly the same amount of effort time.

well, numbers wise you might be right. but as such numbers add up to next to nothing so I still fail to see a point.

nonetheless the climb does produce real differences, every year, and this is what python is saying IMHO. and a minute's difference between the candidates is all the more impressive when one is talking about a sub 20 minute effort, no?

 

[python]

i had a kick when pellegrino after out sprinting northug in the final had bent over the dying and barely breathing in the snow petter and gave him a little massage

sundby again superstrong. halfvarsson died, did not recover from the semis...surprised by the belov's sprinting who untill today i only knew as a super talent distance skier gravitating towards classic...interestingly, he now, like his landsman in the final chernousov previously, is now working with reto burgermeister...

well, numbers wise you might be right. but as such numbers add up to next to nothing so I still fail to see a point.

nonetheless the climb does produce real differences, every year, and this is what python is saying IMHO. and a minute's difference between the candidates is all the more impressive when one is talking about a sub 20 minute effort, no?

of course you are correct. for bavarianrider not to see my simple point - about the differences on the last hill being decisive towards the overall (while addressing feminal's good question) - means he races the sport in his own mind. as opposed to the way the sport is.

for any fan it is fine to wish for a change. i just find his whining about one and same sameness - the sport is not the way he wants it (for many years now) tiring.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Speaking of people moaning about the sport not being the way they want it, I'm here to bewail that Heidi Weng is now competent at sprints. More distance races for the women, please! More variety of distances and more genuine distance races. Otherwise it homogenizes like women's cycling and the lack of depth in the field means there is a dearth of real specialists, because the races are too similar in style and profile for any variety in the cast of characters to develop. Basically, I should not be seeing Maiken Caspersen Falla or Kikkan Randall anywhere near the front in the long races, and I should not be seeing Heidi Weng or Elizabeth Stephen in sprint finals. There should be enough difference between the sprints and the distance races for them to be able to specialize. Because when there isn't, you just get the same characters competing in every race, and with few exceptions, in approximately the same order.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Why exactly are theyreplacing a 35km race with a 25km race again

Why not simply go 7 laps

I don't really like sprints, but thanks to the sprint some gaps have opened. Today should also provide some more gaps. Therefore there's hope that the Toblach race won't be mass start type of race, but a real race where everyone tries to go full speed from the beginning.

 

[Kokoso]

Speaking of people moaning about the sport not being the way they want it

Aren't you one of those?

 

[python]

we have something like 15 min to the start of the classic 10 k...it should be very interesting as those who have real chances for the overall are beginning to split wide..cologna now over a full minute behind northug, hellner and vyleg - almost 1:30. (i dont think that harvey and poltoranin will try for the overall)

also, sundby and northug had made loud statements that they intend to work together in a pursuit to try to distance non norwegians. thus any contenders simply can't lose any additional seconds before the final climb...

the drama is also thickened today by having at the start excellent classics specialists - polto, vyleg, belov, niskanen, dyrhaug, roenning, richardsson and a bunch of russians etc. none of these guys will neglect their chances...

i say sundby will finish high - almost guaranteed - but not necessarily northug. i expect a semi surprise today from one of the named above.

 

[jens_attacks]

Go go go poltoranin legend!!##

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Aren't you one of those?

That was the joke, yes. I was poking fun at my own tendency to bang the repetitive "more distance races! fewer sprints!" drum since Bavarianrider was being called out for the same thing.

 

[jens_attacks]

Mother russia!!!!!

 

[python]

well, well well....a very interesting race is on - including from a technical aspect. as far as i can tell several - , manificat, polto, richardson are on skating skis. but not sundby, not belov, not northug, not vyleg, not cologna...

so far, the best checks are set by those on classic skis with richardsson doing pretty close but not quite.

remarkable slow starts by almost all favs.. northug in 22nd almost 12 sec down on the fastest opener. belov just bested 2nd check after a slow start...

 

[jens_attacks]

Poltoranin god, whatever it happens

 

[jens_attacks]

Belov, che bello!

 

[jens_attacks]

Boooo sundby booo
Yeyyyy

 

[jens_attacks]

The mythical kazakh warrior wins _o_

 

[python]

alexix polto...ferckin' alexis incredible !

his last lap was as if some one in the woods gave him a shot.

congratulation to petter for getting out of the way of the real contenders - sundby, belov, and...still cologna.

belov - as i have consistently predicted - has proven himself. the dude is barely 24. i checked his anthropometric - he's quite capable of delivering on alp cermis...

 

[Kokoso]

Is Hervey better in free style or similar as in classic?