You think Fourcade & Svendsen are getting predictable? Tora Berger is just unstoppable this season, and the only people who've really threatened her are the ones who you can bank will shoot worse than she does in an Individual - Miri, Dasha and Kaisa. And so it was today, with all 3 within 10 seconds at the top of the ski times list, but Miri missed 6 times, Mäkäräinen did somewhat better with 3 misses, while Dasha had outdone Kaisa by shooting 1, recovering to 14/20 after a chronic 1/5 at the first prone. The only other person who could have beaten Berger today (she was the 5th fastest skier and shot 20/20 because, well, that's what she does: be the best) was Kuzmina; she skied 18" faster than Berger (still 30" off Mäkäräinen, mind) but 2 misses dropped her out of the medals. Germany's tournament is finally off the mark, and who else would it be but Andrea Henkel, the hands they always turn to in times of need? Andrea's been the steady, experienced hand in an inexperienced women's team this year, the perfect counter to the super-exciting but inconsistent Gößner at the head of the team, giving them consistent good results without electrifying the field. She showed great form to come from 33rd to 6th in the Pursuit after a disappointing sprint, having the best isolated pursuit time. Now, however, she isn't starting with a heavy disadvantage and medalled accordingly. Perfect shooting alone, however, isn't enough to beat Berger, for she has consistently been 4th or 5th best on the skis all season, occasionally higher, and Henkel could only manage a time 52" behind the Norwegian. The third podium spot was filled by Valj Semerenko, because a) the Ukrainians have timed their peak perfectly - Vita was 5th as well, but 40 seconds slower than her twin - and b) Vita has a couple of WM medals already, Valj didn't have any until today. She was one of the first people of all to go, as well, so it was a long and nerve-wracking wait for her medal to be confirmed, and she sat on the top step for a long time too (Berger and Henkel set off #s 62 and 71). Zaitseva was close but no cigar yet again, with 2 misses in the first prone, then salvaging a 6th place by going clear at the other 3.
The French women are still trying hard to get something out of these championships; Dorin once again close, she'd have had the silver if she shot clear, but 2 misses drop her down, while Brunet DID get 20/20 but was a painful 4 minutes down on Berger's time. China's Yan Zhang is worth keeping an eye on though - as well as a top pursuit in Oberhof, the 20-year-old Chinese shot 19/20 and finished a more than respectable 16th today, within 40 seconds of Dzhyma, Vítková and even Vilukhina (!) with the same shooting record. After a lot of progress a few years ago it seemed the Chinese had fallen back into the lower rankings, but they clearly do still have some prospects to move forward. She took some impressive scalps even without the shooting record today, finishing well ahead of Nadine Horchler with the same shooting record, and more than her miss quotient ahead of Skardino. Obviously the poor shooting displays from Miri and Dasha put them down the field (35th and 33rd respectively). Others who'll be disappointed with their day include Franzi Hildebrand (touted as a potential medal winner due to strong Individual performances in the past, she shot perfectly in prone but 5 misses in stand sent her tumbling down the order), Synnøve Solemdal (who shot 14/20 like Domracheva and Gößner but is nearly 2 and a half minutes behind them, and while they are another level in skiing performance on form, Solemdal has regularly been, along with Berger, one of the strongest performers beside them), Ann Kristin Flatland (who with 3 misses is over 6 minutes back, clearly the accident on Sunday may have affected her either mentally, physically or both) and Nastassia Dubarezava, who missed 4 in the first two shooting rounds and then failed to finish, but I don't know why. She showed a lot of promise last year, but it seems this year her shooting performance has completely collapsed, especially since the cross-firing incident at Pokljuka and failing to qualify for the pursuit. Certainly last year the Skardino-Kalin'chik-Dubarezava-Domracheva tandem for Belarus could compete for the podium in any race, by getting to leg 4 within a couple of minutes and letting Darya turn on the turbos admittedly, but this year that has seemed a long way away.
So what does this mean for the relays?
Well, Ukraine must feel fairly confident, with Pidhrushna and both Semerenkos very strong at present. Dzhyma hasn't been weak, but she'll be the weakest part of the team. Russia must feel fairly comfortable as well, with Zaitseva on top form and Vilukhina reliable. Glazyrina was good today, but they are lacking in ski speed, even with Zaitseva putting in easily her best ski times of the season here in Nové Město. France have a very stable and reliable team, but they will have to rely on others making mistakes; Bescond can be quick but is the least reliable of the quartet with the rifle, and Dorin is far quicker than she used to be but still a level below the hares if the pressure is on. Boilley has been quick in relays (see Ruhpolding, where she was 2nd quickest overall, following Gößner all the way around admittedly) but not often enough to be confident, and Brunet's ski speed has been poor all year. Germany may feel a bit more confident in Miri's skiing than they were after the Mixed Relay, but the 2km-Strecke is very light and she hasn't been good on it, whereas on the longer, harder courses she's made much better time. Henkel is as Henkel does, Franzi will hopefully bounce back from today's disappointment, and her ski speed has been vastly improved recently, but Horchler's lack of speed and form-straight after a really impressive Antholz-is a major worry for them, especially as the only backup they've brought to the Championships is Laura Dahlmeier, who may be one of the brightest prospects in the sport, but who has also never started a race at the World Cup level. Norway are surprisingly low down the prospects list too; obviously a clearly on-form and motivated Tora Berger is a weapon like pretty much no other, but if Flatland is suffering, then they only have an out-of-form Solemdal, a talented but not yet complete Fanny Horn and the amazingly promising but inexperienced Hilde Fenne (who may be tired after a long season. Certainly her ski speed was pretty good today, but 8 misses can't be spun any positive way really). The easier 2km course may play into their hands with Flatland however, as opposed to the longer, tougher course used today. Beyond these "big" nations, there are obviously other options. Poland have been pretty strong all season, and fell at the last hurdle going for the podium in Antholz. Gwizdoń is as fast as she's ever been, Nowakowska will be motivated to atone for that botch at Antholz, Cyl and Hojnisz will compete for the fourth slot and Krystyna Pałka has been Bärenstark at these championships. And, of course, the hosts. Soukalová and Vítková can be competitive at most races, especially with comparatively easy skiing routes to minimise the losses there (more with Vítková than Soukalová admittedly) while any of the options they have for the other slots will be motivated to perform in front of the home audience.
Finally, tomorrow's men's Individual. Some strong contenders going early, with Erik Lesser leading off (remember, for all his meltdowns since, he was on the podium the last time an Individual was held on the World Cup), reigning champ Jakov Fak going at 6, Ustyugov at 8, Hofer 10, Landertinger - on the podium in the Östersund Individual - 11, Bjørndalen 14, Leguellec 15 and Alexis Bœuf 17. Group 2 (21-40) is the strongest by far, however, with a number of key figures. Anton Shipulin goes at 25 and will be followed by Andi Birnbacher, who in turn will be followed by Fredrik Lindström (who will hope to replicate that final lap speed from Saturday's sprint). Martin Fourcade, who won in Östersund of course (starting his reign in the yellow bib that may go - like Berger - from start to finish of the World Cup season) will go at 29, before a period of relative calm until his mortal rival Svendsen sets off at 40. Group 3 is comparatively benign, with Mořavec at 42 and Bø at 57 the main attractions. There are plenty to keep an eye on in the later numbers, though: Bergman goes at 72, followed by Peiffer, Florian Graf is at 81, and Andrei Makoveev, who was on the podium at all Individuals in 2011-12 except the World Championships - and that because he was inexplicably left off the team for an injured Ustyugov - goes at 89 and while he's not had the best of seasons, he can shoot well, he's been on the podium before this season and, well, it would be a lot less surprising than Maxim Maksimov's 2011 medal. Friedrich Pinter goes at 95, the 34-year-old having been rejuvenated this season, while the elder Fourcade, whose ski form has been variable at these tournaments, goes at 107 followed by local hero Michal Šlesingr. The last real, genuine threat to go is as late as 119 - Daniel Mesotitsch. The Austrian has spent much of the season on the IBU Cup, but he podiumed the sprint in Antholz when called up, he's capable of going 20/20, and he has previous in the Individual as well.
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