Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

[Singer01]

Prediction time (for the Biathlon men its just really a case of deciding which races JTB and Fourcade win each).

Biathlon Men
Sprint - JTB
Pursuit - Fourcade
Individual - Fourcade
Mass Start - JTB
Relay - Norway (by a mile).

MIxed Relay - Germany

Women
Sprint - Kuzmina
Pursuit - Dahlmeieir
Individual - Dahlmeieir
Mass Start - Kaisa
Relay - Germany

XC Men
Sprint - Klaebo
Team Sprint - Norway
Relay - Norway
Skiathlon - Klaebo
15k - Cologna
50k - Sundby (even though he hasn't looked remotely likely, he must be due a break at major championships).

Women
Sprint - Stina
Team Sprint - Norway
Relay - Norway
10k - Kalla
Skiathlon - Kalla
30k - Weng

 

[BullsFan22]

Conditions look perfect in Korea. Not a ton of snow, but more than enough to have the races and the tracks look firm and tough. Should be good skiing and not a lot of problems for waxing.

The predictions are predictable. The only thing is we have to wait on the final decisions on whether people like Ustiugov will be allowed to go, because if he is, and judging by how well he skied at the Toblach-Cortina ski classics marathon this weekend, he could be an absolute danger in anything he enters. Unfortunately the IOC is playing the political game quite well so we may not know if he is allowed to go until literally the eve of the games, which is disappointing, whether we want him to go or not.

The 50km classic is one I am looking forward to the most. The course is tough and there a number of men capable of winning that one: Sundby, Niskanen, Poltoranin, Cologna, Harvey, and outsiders like Toenseth, Iversen, Larkov, Rickardsson. Also to keep an eye on the U23 Russian men who've turned heads the last couple seasons, especially this season: Bolshunov, Chervotkin, Spitsov...Bolshunov and Chervotkin have battled sickness since the TDS, so their shape remains unclear. They were cleared to train/race recently and will miss the first two races, and will be in Korea on the 15th of Feb, so in time for the 2nd half of Olympics. That means individual, Team sprint, team relay and 50km are what they are shooting for, though Chervotkin probably won't do the team sprint as he isn't a sprinter. Spitsov had the third fastest time at the last stage of the TDS (2nd best climb time up Cermis), had a number of top 10 world cup races, won the skiathlon at U23's in Switzerland and will likely race the skiathlon, 15km and the relay...Lot's of young, very talented Russians coming up the ranks very quickly. These olympics maybe too early for them to get medals but they are capable of it. I'd put them just below the usual favorites (see names above). The team events I certainly expect them to challenge for medals, no doubt.

 

[Googolplex]

The 50km classic is one I am looking forward to the most. The course is tough and there a number of men capable of winning that one

Niskanen said it's easier than he thought. He thinks it will be mostly mass skiing.

Anyone seen profiles?

 

[BullsFan22]

The 50km classic is one I am looking forward to the most. The course is tough and there a number of men capable of winning that one

Niskanen said it's easier than he thought. He thinks it will be mostly mass skiing.

Anyone seen profiles?

I haven't seen profiles, but just remember from watching last year's world cup. Obviously it's hard to compare because none of the top men or women were there. Only a few 'red seeded' skiers were there and in the skiathlon Kowalczyk broke away early and won by around a minute. In the men Sedov won comfortably, and he's nowhere to be seen now...But the course did appear tough. Maybe not Sochi, or Nagano or Lillehammer tough, but 'fair' and tough. Doesn't seem like there's a lot of room for recovery. I am not sure if they changed anything from last year. Also time of day that the races occur may be different (maybe not, I haven't seen the detailed schedule).

 

[Googolplex]

Profiles are now at https://www.pyeongchang2018.com/en/game-time/results/OWG2018/en/cross-country-skiing/reports.htm

Max climb only 35 metres, so it may be difficult to get a gap before next downhill. But constant up and down, so that could make them deceivably hard.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Well, just checiles.
The lack of a Long climb is really concerning. At least there are hardly any flat sections.
Still, seems like we'll get snoozefests in the 30km and the 50kma races, the climbs are simply too short.

 

[python]

good luck to charlotte tomorrow !

she sounds confident with a good plan
https://www.svt.se/sport/pyeongchang-2018/kallas-guldplan-det-galler-att-inte-fa-svackor/

 

[BullsFan22]

The weather was pretty chilly for the first few days that the athletes were in Pyeongchang, but looks like it get warmer as the days go by. It might be an issue for the second half of the Olympics, but how big of an issue....we'll see.

Tomorrow is the first race on the xc menu, the women's 15km skiathlon. As always, the Norwegian women start as favorites, though not as clear as one may think. Kalla has had a great year so far. She's again opted out of racing the TDS, which means she's rested. She also didn't take part in Seefeld, opting to train instead. She is the #1 threat, if not the favorite for the win tomorrow. Bjoergen will probably be in shape. Unbelievably, Parmakoski, Laukannen and Makarainen are ALL sick!!! Finland's best hope in women's xc and Finland's best hopes in biathlon all sick...Krista is on the start list for tomorrow, but how good will she be if she is sick or recovering from sickness??? She could certainly win a race like tomorrow's, but when you are not feeling good, you can't expect to ski as well. Apart from the Scandinavians and Finn's, Diggins looks like a solid shot for not just the podium but a possible win, if she hangs on in the classic portion. After that I don't really see anybody challenging for the top three. Maybe Stadlober, maybe Von Siebenthal, but neither of them have a good sprint so if they are in a group, those two won't have much of a chance. The Russian women are fielding one of the youngest teams. Sedova and Nepryeava have a shot at the top 10, but I think much more than that is unreasonable at this point in their careers. If Sedova can hang, like Diggins, in the classic portion, she can challenge, but maybe too early for her. The German women are likely looking at the sprint, team sprint and relay. Don't see them figuring in the distance races. A top 10 would be a great result for any of them. At this point, Fessel (34) and Boehler (36) are their best bets for top distance results.

Just how I see it.

 

[meat puppet]

Pärmäkoski has repeatedly said the cold was nothing serious and that she feels sharper than before it because of forced rest.

Cant see past Kalla tho.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

The weather was pretty chilly for the first few days that the athletes were in Pyeongchang, but looks like it get warmer as the days go by. It might be an issue for the second half of the Olympics, but how big of an issue....we'll see.

Tomorrow is the first race on the xc menu, the women's 15km skiathlon. As always, the Norwegian women start as favorites, though not as clear as one may think. Kalla has had a great year so far. She's again opted out of racing the TDS, which means she's rested. She also didn't take part in Seefeld, opting to train instead. She is the #1 threat, if not the favorite for the win tomorrow. Bjoergen will probably be in shape. Unbelievably, Parmakoski, Laukannen and Makarainen are ALL sick!!! Finland's best hope in women's xc and Finland's best hopes in biathlon all sick...Krista is on the start list for tomorrow, but how good will she be if she is sick or recovering from sickness??? She could certainly win a race like tomorrow's, but when you are not feeling good, you can't expect to ski as well. Apart from the Scandinavians and Finn's, Diggins looks like a solid shot for not just the podium but a possible win, if she hangs on in the classic portion. After that I don't really see anybody challenging for the top three. Maybe Stadlober, maybe Von Siebenthal, but neither of them have a good sprint so if they are in a group, those two won't have much of a chance. The Russian women are fielding one of the youngest teams. Sedova and Nepryeava have a shot at the top 10, but I think much more than that is unreasonable at this point in their careers. If Sedova can hang, like Diggins, in the classic portion, she can challenge, but maybe too early for her. The German women are likely looking at the sprint, team sprint and relay. Don't see them figuring in the distance races. A top 10 would be a great result for any of them. At this point, Fessel (34) and Boehler (36) are their best bets for top distance results.

Just how I see it.

Vicky Carl could be useful in skiathlon, she's better in skate and very promising, but in the 30k definitely not.

 

[python]

kalla super ! ebba too had the race of her young life...brilliant tactical race by charlotte...

the old muscle mama was the only norwegian on the podium. is it an indication how their olympics will go ?

 

[Gigs_98]

Generally great to see that the top 8 were from 7 different nations. I can't stand it when the norwegians are completely dominant.
Congrats to kalla

 

[meat puppet]

As expected, Kalla was a class above. Will win 10k too.

Pärmä was right, she is good. Björgen better than i thought, but this one is on me. Never downplay her.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

von Siebenthal really needs one more weapon and then she'll be a potent threat at this level, she strung everybody out on the penultimate lap on the climb but she is only good at distance, and better in skate, which will hamstring her this Olympiad. She lost out on the downhill to the stadium because Diggins is really strong on those, and she has no sprint. Ebba Andersson is the coming woman or so it would seem, and will take a fair bit of pressure off Stina in the coming years as she can therefore focus on the events she is able to win - sprints, pursuits and short distance races, mainly mass start, of up to 10-15k depending on technique. Stadlober would seem to be in a similar bind to von Siebenthal but with a bit more roundedness as she's been very strong at distance all season long.

 

[python]

one more observation...when stina finishes 10th in a race that does not fit her strongest assets, the norwegians - as well as any other nation - have to worry about their medal counts. and not just in the sprinting events :idea:

also a very good race from the russian ladies...sedova was visibly having a kick wax suboptimum. who knows, she may have been a podium contender otherwise, b/c her strongest asset is speed endurance in the a second half...

 

[Singer01]

The Norwegians could really struggle here. Unless that was a waxing issue. Didn't look like it though.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Those Loops are way too easy for the men. Nothing will happen until he very end

 

[Blaaswix]

Bjørgen has dropped the sprint. This season, she has looked like she only has one really good race per meet. Maybe her silver medal was it. She wasn't able to leave Parmakoski behind. Looking at Weng and Flugstad Østberg today, the sprint is looking much more unpredictable.

 

[meat puppet]

Re:

The Norwegians could really struggle here. Unless that was a waxing issue. Didn't look like it though.

It seemed to me that the top Norwegians could easily top the hills diagonally on the classic leg, so probably not a huge grip issue at least. Moreover especially Björgen had very slippery skis on both legs. Weight advantage going downhill might have been a factor, but definitely not bad skis. Finns had good skis too, by my impression. Kalla on the other hand had the worst glide amongst the top women.

Interesting to see if Bavarian has it correct about the tracks being too easy for men. I guess I tend to share the pessimism, but want to add the following qualifier. The section where Kalla attacked contains a rather long continuous work period (some 800 metres) that does not end at the top as there is a (false) flat section before the next downhill. Probably nobody can just break away, but if the top athletes really go for it, chances are that only a group of five or so can survive. We'll see.

 

[python]

cold you pls take your dirt to the clinic and stop polluting a good thread....

 

[ToreBear]

Impressive win by Kalla. I didn't see anything wrong with the Norwegian waxing. If there were problems it would likely be the individual making a bad choice. Not a problem with the waxing.

 

[DenisMenchov]

J. Boe vs Fourcade today in the men's sprint I reckon. Considering the strong wind, I'll go with Johannes.

 

[Gigs_98]

Niskanen doesn't take prisoners. Can't complain about someone making the race hard early

 

[python]

niskanen for sure tried but the wind he figured it was wiser to let others to lead.

at some points it seemed that klebo had been slipping back which, given the 1st leg is classic, i thought was a weakness. nevertheless, he was the 1st to change the skis.

still, the most impressive performance i thought was spitsov's who closed the gap to the leading group. and frankly, i thought his classic style is strained. having seen him at the world junior 10 days ago i am not surprised.

it is still btwn the norwegians and cologna to split the podium imo.

 

[capuldemetal]

krueger!