First off, happy New Year to everyone!!
The course didn't bring as much trouble as I thought it would, so that's good. I still don't like the inclusion of the jump and the bumps. Shame for Weng, she feared she may have broken her hand. What's her status now? Can she/will she continue? Her performances have steadily gone down since the TDS last season. I guess she dealt with some sickness prior to this season.
Nobody was touching Nilsson today. That was even more impressive than Toblach and her victory on this very course two years ago. Will she rethink her plan? Will she continue in the tour or was this her last stage? Two years ago after the Val Mustair sprint (Val Mustair was the first stage then) she kept rolling, winning both stages in Oberstdorf and one in Val di Fiemme. She's too far back to challenge for the win, so maybe it won't make sense for her to continue.
The Americans doing well today is no surprise, skate sprints on hard packed conditions is what they've thrived on in the last few years. Caldwell will probably abandon the tour seeing that she's a pure sprinter (though she's had a few decent top 30 distance races and has raced relays before-including the Olympics last year). Diggins is once again a threat. The key for her will be to not lose too much time in the two classic races. Bjornsen is probably to far back to challenge for a podium, she's 1:20 behind. She'll have to motor and get bonus seconds in the two mass start races.
The Russian women didn't ski tactically very well today. Nepryaeva left far too much ground to try and make up and she missed out on, potentially, valuable seconds towards the overall. It would suit her if this were a classic sprint, but still, I thought for sure she'd make the semis, at least. She and Belorukova tried to find a gap but were closed off (not on purpose, simply reacting too late) and then didn't have enough snow to gain spots. Still, not too much damage was done. Nepryaeva is only 15 seconds out and Belorukova 31. They have good form and tomorrow is a classic race, so if their skis are good, they will challenge for the podium. You'd expect Nepryaeva to be the better distance skier, but Belorukova has skied exceptionally well in the distance races so far this season.
Oestberg appears to be Norway's only serious challenger for title. Jacobsen skied a surprisingly strong race today. Weng with the fall and injury. Hopefully it's not too serious. If it's a break then that will seriously hurt (no pun inded) her chances for the World's, nevermind the Tour.
Parmakoski is the only Finn (men or women) that's done anything of not at the Tour so far. Real pity for the Finns that they haven't figured in more, but they are missing the Niskanen siblings, a load of sprinters are not here and Kylloenen is actually coming back this season after poor form last year and an injury in summer/fall. Heikkinen is too unpredictable and again, two sprints in the first three stages is not really his thing.
The men's race will, I think, hinge on the next two races. The conditions are supposed to be tough in Germany. Snowing all day tomorrow and Thursday. Mass start race with bonus seconds up for grabs and then a handicap pursuit. One figures that top three will fight for every bonus sprint and assuming that none of them blow up while trying to pick up those seconds, they will challenge for the podium. The handicap race on Thursday will be interesting. What will the gaps be? Will the gaps be closer or will someone pull ahead? If it continues to snow then it will be very tough for one person to stay away or at least not lose too much of his advantage in the falling snow. The groups will form and there could be one or two big groups chasing the top three or two or maybe only one skier. Two seasons ago Ustiugov won the first five stages. The handicap start race in Oberstdorf he more than doubled his advantage to Sundby. There was snowfall that day, but nothing too major for Ustiugov to lose his advantage. Everyone was too far to really challenge him or gain significant time back on him. In the past, the Russians have employed team tactics in these mass starts, and I am betting on the same tomorrow. They'll want to try and break Klaebo but also not give away anything on the strong climbers like Cologna, Krüger, Manificat and Spitsov...
I really wish they picked better races for the tour. If you want to have two sprints, one of them has to be classic. That means at least 3 classic races to 4 skate races. That's much more respectable. But it's not just the style, it's the stale, boring distances. 15km races and sprints. As I said yesterday-where is the prologue, the classic sprint, the individual classic, the short 5/10kms, the Cortina to Toblach pursuit...Yeah you can't have everything in one week, but at least alternate something. I've mentioned this before, but Mignerey and FIS were whining and moaning about keeping classic skiing alive, yet they've quietly forgotten (ignored?) everything from what they said and what many wanted three seasons ago and they just kept doing what they want to do. In my opinion it's a shame for the sport. Not only are they not getting enough interest from non-traditional audiences, but they may start losing interest from traditional countries. I hope they take a serious long look in the offseason and do something about it for the future.