Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

[Mayomaniac]

Don't know, but he has always had problems finding the right amount of training. He keeps switching between the sprint-team and the long distance team. Whenever he tries to keep up with guys on the distance team he can't handle the amount of training.

Thanks for the answer.
I think that having the classic sprint on the penultimate day could help the distance specialists. Many sprinters will be worn down or even drop out because Klaebo is on another level in classic sprints.

 

[BullsFan22]

I am afraid there goes the tour for this year. Bolshunov and Ustiugov both needed to get to the finals, both eliminated in the semis. No other overall contender in sight. Krueger in 23rd, Iversen in 24th, those are the other 'likely' contenders for the overall that made the top 30. Golberg is a good distance skier, but the 15km skate in Toblach and the last mass start up the Cermis, will not help him. Valnes is a bit of a mystery. Good race yesterday but not sure he'll last the distance. Who else is there? Maltsev, De Fabbiani, Larkov and Halfvarsson. Very strong distance skiers, but how will they fare later on? Halfvarsson, again, battling sickness and the other three can be hit or miss.

Interesting how FIS isn't handing out bonus's anymore in distance races. Ustiugov got no bonuses yesterday, and Klaebo gets the usual 60 for the sprint win. They are rewarding 2-3 minute races more than 33 minute races. I get it, you have to ski 4 races if you make the final in a sprint, but not rewarding distance skiers is just silly. Klaebo will likely win the sprint in Val Di Fiemme, and if main rivals like Ustiugov lose out on the finals again, it's basically over. Klaebo doesn't even have to race the 15km skate that hard, because even if he is overtaken at the top, he'll have the 15km classic pursuit the next day, and he'll do the usual pack skiing and then sprint the last 200 meters, and the finishing order in that pursuit is also the overall standings. After that's it's another mass start and then another sprint. This tour couldn't have been made better for Klaebo.

The hope for the Russians is, of course to gain time in Toblach, but also employ good tactics, because the Norwegians will be working for Klaebo, no doubt.

 

[DenisMenchov]

I am afraid there goes the tour for this year. Bolshunov and Ustiugov both needed to get to the finals, both eliminated in the semis. No other overall contender in sight. Krueger in 23rd, Iversen in 24th, those are the other 'likely' contenders for the overall that made the top 30. Golberg is a good distance skier, but the 15km skate in Toblach and the last mass start up the Cermis, will not help him. Valnes is a bit of a mystery. Good race yesterday but not sure he'll last the distance. Who else is there? Maltsev, De Fabbiani, Larkov and Halfvarsson. Very strong distance skiers, but how will they fare later on? Halfvarsson, again, battling sickness and the other three can be hit or miss.

Interesting how FIS isn't handing out bonus's anymore in distance races. Ustiugov got no bonuses yesterday, and Klaebo gets the usual 60 for the sprint win. They are rewarding 2-3 minute races more than 33 minute races. I get it, you have to ski 4 races if you make the final in a sprint, but not rewarding distance skiers is just silly. Klaebo will likely win the sprint in Val Di Fiemme, and if main rivals like Ustiugov lose out on the finals again, it's basically over. Klaebo doesn't even have to race the 15km skate that hard, because even if he is overtaken at the top, he'll have the 15km classic pursuit the next day, and he'll do the usual pack skiing and then sprint the last 200 meters, and the finishing order in that pursuit is also the overall standings. After that's it's another mass start and then another sprint. This tour couldn't have been made better for Klaebo.

The hope for the Russians is, of course to gain time in Toblach, but also employ good tactics, because the Norwegians will be working for Klaebo, no doubt.

The pursuit is no longer based on Tour standings but on previous stage rankings, so if Russians can make some ground up on Tuesday, they can work together and try to distance Klaebo.

• Pursuit start lists will be based only on Stage 3 results (not as in the past on the current Tour de Ski overall standing).

 

[KZD]

I still think Ustiugov can win the Tour but he needs to be very sharp on Toblach, can't crack in Val di Fiemme mass-start unlike last season and not make any mistake in the sprint.

I can see the Tour GC becoming very close after the individual race, with Ustiugov the most likely leader but I wouldn't be surprised if Klaebo is able to catch them in the following day's pursuit since its in classic style which means he would leave Toblach with around the same advantage he has now and then it would be almost impossible to beat him. But if Ustiugov and Bolshunov are able to work together and keep Klaebo at 30 seconds or so things become more interesting and one of them can win the Tour.

Still, the Russians need a good Tour de Ski result more than Klaebo because they are a bit far from him in the overall so Klaebo will likely stay in the World cup lead (even in the Russian optimistic scenario).

 

[BullsFan22]

Aha, ok. Well I suppose that's great news for Klaebo's rivals. If previous individual start races are any guide, it should be a battle between the two Russians, Cologna, Holund, Roethe, Krueger, Niskanen, Manificat (if he's in shape) and maaaaybe two other other Russians, Melnichenko and Spitsov, both of whom have made the podium in skate races before.

As I wrote yesterday, Klaebo lost almost 50 seconds to Ustiugov and almost 30 to Bolshunov in the Toblach 15km skate last year. If he loses the same mount this year, then that will be very important. The worry then is who will ski in a pack and who won't, who can you latch onto and how the group dynamics work. You can gain/lose important time in Toblach as the second part of that course is basically all downhill. One would favor Bolshunov (assuming Niskanen and Klaebo are far enough from him) for the Toblach pursuit.

If Ustiugov wins again, and Norwegians like Krueger, Holund, Roethe are near him and they catch him, what will they do? Will they offer help to try and extend the gap on Klaebo or will they wait and let the Russian and/or others nearby do the work, while hoping that Klaebo can bridge the gap. Those three Norwegians surely have podium aspirations, so we'll see what happens.

The women's race was unexpected. It seems like women's sprints are now the most exciting races on the calendar. Crashes, tactical moves, drafting, LL drama, favorites missing out. There's so many strong Swedish sprinters that there's almost too many of them in the heats. They keep taking each other out. It kind of started last season in Seefeld. Happened in Bruksvallarna where Faendrich won, happened last week in Planica...I don't know, perhaps too much rivalry? Too much pressure in battling your teammates?

In any case, wonderful to see a non Scandinavian/non Russian win. Lampič has been a very good sprinter since her junior days, and she's slightly better in classic than skate, so to see this, after qualifying in 20th, is a pleasant surprise! Hope she can ski well enough in Toblach to at least stay within striking distance of the leaders, because the classic mass start and classic sprint in Val Di Fiemme will be good for her. I can see her fighting for a top 10 in the overall.

Nepryaeva leads Lampič by one second in the overall. Johaug is 3rd at 5 seconds. The smart money is on Johaug to win the 10km, but the gaps may not be so big. The course doesn't really suit her. That also brings some excitement in the pursuit. If her gap isn't too big, and (likely) challengers Nepryaeva, Andersson, Oestberg, Jacobsen, Diggins, Bjornsen, Kalla (??), Weng...aren't too far behind and/or are all within reach of each other, will they be able to eat into Johaug's lead and make it interesting? Johaug is better in classic than skate, so my observations may be moot, but I hope that she doesn't win by 30 or more seconds and that there is a good race developing in the pursuit.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Today we had around -15 degrees in the morning around Toblach, it's gonna be around -10 in the morning, maybe even a bit colder, for the races. Monderate altitude and lower temperatures are usually better for the Russians.

 

[BullsFan22]

I still think Ustiugov can win the Tour but he needs to be very sharp on Toblach, can't crack in Val di Fiemme mass-start unlike last season and not make any mistake in the sprint.

I can see the Tour GC becoming very close after the individual race, with Ustiugov the most likely leader but I wouldn't be surprised if Klaebo is able to catch them in the following day's pursuit since its in classic style which means he would leave Toblach with around the same advantage he has now and then it would be almost impossible to beat him. But if Ustiugov and Bolshunov are able to work together and keep Klaebo at 30 seconds or so things become more interesting and one of them can win the Tour.

Still, the Russians need a good Tour de Ski result more than Klaebo because they are a bit far from him in the overall so Klaebo will likely stay in the World cup lead (even in the Russian optimistic scenario).

Yeah, you are right. I agree on all points. If Klaebo is within 20 seconds, he'll catch the leaders. Unless the leaders are Bolshunov and Niskanen, and they pile on the pressure from the start. But even then, you just know that the Norwegian will go hard the first couple km to close the gap and/or use others around him to do that and then he'll sit in for the rest of the race. Ustiugov needs to win and keep enough distance between himself and Klaebo, because Klaebo right now is the better classic skier. Groups will likely form in the pursuit and there's even a chance of it becoming a big group of 15-20 men fighting for the podium spots.

Ustiugov's toughest stage may be the 15km in Val Di Fiemme, as you pointed out. The last two years he's lost precious time there (though in 2018 he abandoned just after that stage because of back issues). Last year the Russians skied a tactically horrible race, when they were stronger than the Norwegians in that 15km. Klaebo won the bonus seconds, he won the stage, gained bonus seconds at the finish for winning, Bolshunov finished third but lost out to Klaebo in each of the bonus sprints, didn't gain enough time on the climbers like Krueger and Roethe, and he and the other three Russians killed off Ustiugov's chances. Ustiugov would have definitely won the tour last year had the Russians skied a tactically better race, with or without Klaebo's win in that mass start stage.

There may be a lot of different scenarios. Also how they recover after Lenzerheide and then the trip to Toblach. It's not a short trip.

There's really not a lot to say about the non Norwegian/Russian contenders. Cologna and Niskanen are realistically the only two guys that will challenge for the podium spots, but both of them lost out on the sprint today, and if they don't qualify in Italy, there chances are small for the Alpe Cermis. They HAVE TO make inroads in Toblach. Cologna usually gets better as the tour rolls on and Niskanen has three classic stages coming up, so that's certainly a positive.

 

[zarnack]

The surprise in women sprints was that Swedes flopped completely. It seems like in particular Dahlqvist can't catch a break this season. Always something going wrong for her. Well, I guess the sprints within a long tour are a slightly different matter though that they don't suit pure sprinters so much - you already have fatigue from distance races. Nilsson has abandoned the tour altogether due to injury.

So far this season 4 different winners in 4 women sprints (Falla, Svahn, Sundling, Lampic). It's really open and you can never guess the winner before the race. In men it's mostly Kläbo affair, who not only has fantastic speed, but also good tactical acumen to pull off success.

By the way, I'm not sure, what does Tour de Ski use these new "points standings" for? I haven't seen any indication they would count for World Cup points later. The overall is still time-based.

Anyway. What concerns the TdS format once again, I assume they have cramped so many mass-starts into the tour to try to keep the gaps small. Because in TdS the differences are usually in minutes by the end. But with mass-starts tour organizers hope sprinters can somehow survive in big groups too and the gaps wouldn't be big. It only applies to men's side though, because in women field tends to get spread out in mass-starts too. Well, anyway, the next one and only interval start will have significant implications on the tour. The opportunity to create big gaps.

 

[BullsFan22]

Today we had around -15 degrees in the morning around Toblach, it's gonna be around -10 in the morning, maybe even a bit colder, for the races. Monderate altitude and lower temperatures are usually better for the Russians.

Yes, Toblach/Dobbiacco usually doesn't disappoint with the weather. It helps at what is the course at, around 1200m? Plus a lot of the course is in the shade when the sun is out, so it should be perfect skiing and not much trouble for waxing.

Val di Fiemme, as I see it, is at a similar altitude, right? Of course that course is out on the open, so the sun usually bakes the tracks and it can get soft, which won't suit bigger men, but every time Ustiugov has raced the tour, the conditions have been quite good in the FIemme valley. He can't blame the weather, soft snow, etc. He lost over 40 seconds in 2016, and again about the same amount last season. Two years ago he looked as if he would lose a lot of time, but he had helpers around him and he was in better form, so he finished second behind Sundby. That's what he has to hope for there, that he limits the damage. Of course he was already over a minute ahead of Sundby before that stage, so he had some time to play with. Plus he only lost a few seconds on the Alpe Cermis to Sundby.

Whatever the outcomes, I just hope it's not a cake walk for Klaebo come the Alpe Cermis. I hope there are a number of guys near him to challenge him. Perhaps (and this is unlikely) if he's not in the lead before the Alpe Cermis, he'll be forced to do something himself, so we'll see an attacking final climb.

 

[zarnack]

There's so many strong Swedish sprinters that there's almost too many of them in the heats. They keep taking each other out. It kind of started last season in Seefeld. Happened in Bruksvallarna where Faendrich won, happened last week in Planica...I don't know, perhaps too much rivalry? Too much pressure in battling your teammates?

In any case, wonderful to see a non Scandinavian/non Russian win. Lampič has been a very good sprinter since her junior days, and she's slightly better in classic than skate, so to see this, after qualifying in 20th, is a pleasant surprise! Hope she can ski well enough in Toblach to at least stay within striking distance of the leaders, because the classic mass start and classic sprint in Val Di Fiemme will be good for her. I can see her fighting for a top 10 in the overall.

I'm not sure the issue is that there are "too many Swedes". It's good to have some depth. I mean in men sprints there are often 4-5 Norwegians too in semis, but this doesn't hinder them, except those, who tend to be in the same semi with Kläbo & Co, because they would likely end up 3rd or 4th and miss the final (which happened to Valnes). But it's true that Swedes crash fairly often. Maybe it's a bit of clumsiness.

I think the biggest issue for me in sprints is that first semifinal or the first heats are always stronger than the last ones. Usually some outsider makes it into the final largely because no-one wants to be in the latest heat, so it's an available opportunity if you have a good day. Meanwhile first semifinal usually seems like a final based on line-up alone.

What concerns Lampic, she is coming along really nicely, and she has improved in distance races too, being top 20 level there now.

 

[zarnack]

Nepryaeva leads Lampič by one second in the overall. Johaug is 3rd at 5 seconds. The smart money is on Johaug to win the 10km, but the gaps may not be so big. The course doesn't really suit her. That also brings some excitement in the pursuit. If her gap isn't too big, and (likely) challengers Nepryaeva, Andersson, Oestberg, Jacobsen, Diggins, Bjornsen, Kalla (??), Weng...aren't too far behind and/or are all within reach of each other, will they be able to eat into Johaug's lead and make it interesting? Johaug is better in classic than skate, so my observations may be moot, but I hope that she doesn't win by 30 or more seconds and that there is a good race developing in the pursuit.

Let's be honest. No-one is going to catch Johaug. She usually departs from a big group in mass-starts early on with no-one able to live with her. Yesterday Andersson & Norwegians worked together. Still it wasn't good enough to threaten Johaug. The only thing that could hinder Johaug is heavy snowfall. If she has to lead and "clean" the tracks.

2nd in overall will be shared between distance skiers. I think Weng, Östberg, Andersson and Nepryaeva are all in the mix there. Maybe Jacobsen. Diggins I think will lose out in the classic races and Kalla isn't good enough any more.

In men I think top 3 contenders will be Kläbo, Ustiugov, Bolshunov, Niskanen (will join the front group on the classic portion of the tour) and a few more Norwegians. But I can't tell for sure, which ones, because there are so many of them and they are all good. Maybe Iversen, because he is a great allrounder and good in sprints too.

 

[search]

Bolshunov and Iversen seem to have more trouble in altitude and I think they are better suited to the Ski Tour (especially Bolshunov) but they are still candidates.

Iversen has a cold (which is probably also the reason for the relatively poor showing in the sprint today) and just announced that he will not continue the Tour

 

[BullsFan22]

I'm not sure the issue is that there are "too many Swedes". It's good to have some depth. I mean in men sprints there are often 4-5 Norwegians too in semis, but this doesn't hinder them, except those, who tend to be in the same semi with Kläbo & Co, because they would likely end up 3rd or 4th and miss the final (which happened to Valnes). But it's true that Swedes crash fairly often. Maybe it's a bit of clumsiness.

I think the biggest issue for me in sprints is that first semifinal or the first heats are always stronger than the last ones. Usually some outsider makes it into the final largely because no-one wants to be in the latest heat, so it's an available opportunity if you have a good day. Meanwhile first semifinal usually seems like a final based on line-up alone.

What concerns Lampic, she is coming along really nicely, and she has improved in distance races too, being top 20 level there now.

What I meant from having 'too many Swedes' isn't to say it's bad for the sport, what I sarcastically said that there's a lot of them and they seem to be standing in each other's way, as evidenced by a number of falls that have derailed them last year and already this season a couple times. It's bad luck for them to take each other out. Maybe it's clumsiness and not being focused at times (too relaxed?). Yes, the men's races are far more predictable as far as sprints are concerned. Pellegrino can't really do anything about Klaebo right now. Chanavat was sick so he announced he wouldn't start today. That left a couple other guys that could figure, but not really beat Klaebo. Ustiugov isn't as sharp in sprints as he was 2012-2017, especially that year he won the TDS. Bolshunov's weakest event is the skate sprint, so I think him finishing in 7th is good, though being so close to the finals must be disappointing. Iversen I hear is sick. The guys that were in the semis and finals are what you'd expect in a sprint race. The women's races show more variety.

Disappointing for the Swiss fans that none of the Swiss made the final. Cologna just isn't what he once was in sprints. The foot/ankle injury he sustained before Sochi still seems to have an effect on him. The last time he made the finals of a sprint was on this very course, four years ago. Maybe he'll make the top 30 in Italy. The sprinters tend to weaken a bit as the tour drags on and as I said he tands to get better. If he want to get on the podium, he needs to at least qualify, assuming he doesn't crush the next two races in Toblach.

 

[zarnack]

For Cologna the interval skate event really is the key. The same applies to Holund and Krüger. Skiers, who are strong in skating, but not strong in sprints. They have to finish top 3 in the interval race to be a feature in the overall.

 

[Mayomaniac]

For Cologna the interval skate event really is the key. The same applies to Holund and Krüger. Skiers, who are strong in skating, but not strong in sprints. They have to finish top 3 in the interval race to be a feature in the overall.

Yes, they have to do really well in the first race in Toblach, after that it's mainly about limiting their losses until Alpe Cermis.
Cologna will probably be willing to work with the Russians in the classic pursuite in Toblach if they finish near eachother, Krüger will just try to stay with them so that he's in striking distance before the Alpe Cermis.
I don't expect a lot from De Fabiani, he's still not at his best and the final climb has always been bad for him.

 

[BullsFan22]

Cologna and Niskanen will definitely work with whoever is in the leading group, and they'll be happy to drive the pace, even if they are not keen on the overall. They are the type of skiers that do their fair share of turns. Having not made the heats, they will be on the offensive, they need to be.

I am really looking forward to the Toblach races. It'll be a tour within a tour, and there should be more guys contending and making the general standings more interesting.

I really wish there was more variety in the races. It's crazy how the early TDS formats where more diverse, with plenty of opportunities for different types of skiers to excel. The last time there was a skiathlon was 2017. The last time there was a 30km, 2016, the last time the Cortina-Toblach pursuit was held, 2015. That was also the last time there was a prologue, and also the last time there was a handicap pursuit that followed the prologue. It's not just about this tour being tailor made for Klaebo, it's that Mignerey keeps insisting that this is the only way to attract fans to the sport. I saw the interview that Libertine wrote about yesterday, and it really is patronizing. Klaebo was also interviewed by ARD and he said that he likes the format and thinks they need to keep innovating. Well of course he does! The shorter the races, the better he does. The more sprints that there are, the better for him.

No more bonus seconds for distance races. It's only for sprints. I really don't see the logic behind that. They need to at least give bonus seconds to the top three, if not the top 10 of each distance race, not 60 seconds for a win, but as they did in the past 15, 12, 10...This gives at least some incentive to fight for every stage, whether you are a better distance skier or sprinter.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Tour der Ski is one big joke. Incredibly Sprinter heavy parcours. Mario Kart like Loop Yesterday that allows no gaps, pure sprinter's Sprint today with crazy Bonus Seconds, and a second one to come. The individual start win t allows big gaps also als IT s a Rilling Loop that usually hast very fast condititions. While Baby Luke the Val di Fiemme loop in the nass start In Mainrain that the climbs are too Shirt top allows significant gaps.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Just checked the weather forecast dir Toblach. Of course, there will be icy super fast condititions. Not a lot time to gain most likely.

 

[zarnack]

I actually wonder, how would the mass-start hill climb look like. I'm sure no-one is going to push the tempo to exhaust himself prior to the climb, so the huge group will arrive on the hill together. So how would they hustle for position there? Some corners are very tight and narrow.

 

[sir fly]

Does the Vierschanzentournee count as nordic?

 

[search]

Bolshunov's weakest event is the skate sprint, so I think him finishing in 7th is good, though being so close to the finals must be disappointing.

yeah, beating Golberg (who deliberatly slowed down in the end) in the 1st round probably cost him a ticket for the final

 

[Bavarianrider]

Of course, Nordic skiing consists of xc skiing, Ski jumping and Nordic combined.

 

[sir fly]

Of course, Nordic skiing consists of xc skiing, Ski jumping and Nordic combined.

Looks Japanese after the Oberstdorf

 

[Bavarianrider]

I actually wonder, how would the mass-start hill climb look like. I'm sure no-one is going to push the tempo to exhaust himself prior to the climb, so the huge group will arrive on the hill together. So how would they hustle for position there? Some corners are very tight and narrow.

The start of the climbs is Not that steep, wide and pretty Straight Forward. So there will be a bunch sprint for position there. These will have the effect that They will already be cooked when they enter the steep part. There will be ugly Pictures.

 

[BullsFan22]

yeah, beating Golberg (who deliberatly slowed down in the end) in the 1st round probably cost him a ticket for the final

It likely did. When I saw Golberg snowplowing just before the finish line I immediately knew why. Then I saw the lineup for the first semifinal and that was essentially the final. I hope it doesn't come to haunt Bolshunov in the end. He'll need those seconds for the final climb.