What a silly format. What exactly is the point of having a pursuit when the individual time counts for the Overall standings. So basically you get punished for having done a good individual start. Klaebo once again lucky as hell. On his own he would he lost so much more.
That may be the case, but I think had the pursuit started with time gaps from the overall and not the individual race yesterday, Klaebo would have started 10 seconds behind Bolshunov and 37 behind Ustiugov. He would have caught Bolshunov, then rested, and seeing how Bolshunov caught Ustiugov, and then dropped him, it's not inconceivable that Klaebo would have been first across the line. His skis were better today than they were yesterday and Ustiugov's weren't. To me he seemed to have trouble latching on. Maybe he did start conservatively, but he looked heavy, not snappy, from the early kilometers. Perhaps it's the effort he put in yesterday, and he did say earlier this year that he can't recover as quickly as he did before. He lost time in the beginning and the end of the race. Both he, Bolshunov, and Halfvarsson lost a good chunk of time on the final lap. Likely fatigue but also the two chasing groups behind them were skiing better. The front three were separated after Bolshunov's attack and that helped the chasers. When theres 5 or 6 guys skiing together, it's easier to gain time on those skiing by themselves.
Bolshunov now leads the tour, 16 seconds ahead of Ustiugov and 26 ahead of Klaebo. The danger stage for Ustiugov is the mass start on Friday. If he can limit the damage, still be within touch of Bolshunov and Klaebo (don't think Klaebo will take the lead after the mass start) then I think he'll have a good shot at winning the overall. Ustiugov has had trouble in Val Di Fiemme before. Last year he lost the tour there, in 2016 he lost 48 seconds to Sundby (though Sundby wasn't going to be beat in that tour, he was just too good in distance races that season). In 2018 he lost 42 seconds (though he had back issues and pulled out before the final stage).
The danger men to the top 3 are Holund who is 1:10 behind Bolshunov, Roethe at 1:22, Krüger at 1:40 and Cologna at 1:43. Those gaps are still not enough to hold those guys off, IMO. Neither of those four will play a big role in the sprint. Cologna may qualify and there's a shot Roethe could qualify as well, depending on how many sprinters there are left and there's always the problem with how fresh everyone is, but Krüger and Holund will lose out in the sprint. The mass start will be more important than the sprint for the chasers. I think Bolshunov and Ustiugov will be stronger in the mass start, because they'll know where everyone is and there'll be no chasing packs vs individuals out there. What will be important is team tactics. The Russians had four men in the leading group of 6 and they totally messed up. Bolshunov didn't win the stage and they dropped Ustiugov, which ultimately cost him the tour victory. He lost 42 seconds in that stage. He ended up having a 1:20 deficit before the final climb and that was too much to overcome.
Are the regulations for the mass start the same as they were for Lenzerheide's mass start? No bonus seconds, only bonus 'points?' No bonus seconds for the top three finishers? I suppose it can benefit/hurt anyone, depending on where they end up at the finish line and the gaps that are made.
Judging by today's race, you'd figure Bolshunov and Niskanen will duke it out. Niskanen had a fast final lap today. I think he may have had a broken pole, because he had to catch back up to the group he was with. Then he left that group pretty easily. One would favor Klaebo to gain some time on Ustiugov in the mass start, and then it becomes a question of Ustiugov not losing too many bonus seconds in the sprint to Klaebo, because let's face it, Klaebo is likely winning that sprint. Bolshunov may come in his way, but that course profile suits Klaebo to a T. He can burst out running on the final pitches of the climb, ski over the top and use the final downhill into the finish, as he did in the 15km last season.
IMO Klaebo has to win the sprint and hope that neither Bolshunov and Ustiugov make it into the final. The Russians will hope that they can do something in mass start. Maybe working with Cologna, Niskanen and Halfvarsson? Perhaps De Fabbiani (he finished 2nd in that stage last season)?
There a lot of scenarios that could play out. Let's hope there are no sicknesses or injuries, that skis aren't the deciding factor and it's a fantastic battle.