Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

[titan31]

Amateur hour coverage by Eurosport today. Their audio is all over the place.

I did enjoy that interview with Herrmann though. I heard nothing cos of their issues but nice to not have their crappy commentary on at the same time

 

[search]

Exactly.

there are not many potential races remaining to travel to, though, as Nove Mesto is "postponed" as well now.

Germany introduced a mandatory quarantine for everyone coming from the Czech Republic the other day, so this cancellation seems to be more with the World Championship in sight

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Östersund is stepping in for Holmenkollen in the biathlon.

 

[zarnack]

So unlike JTB in men, the biggest favourite among women for the sprint (Eckhoff) does deliver the gold. And again in WCH somebody manages to pull above their weight to get a podium. I think this is Sola's first podium on world cup level? Though the Belarusian team in general has taken a step forward this season, so they have multiple skiers, who could impress on their day.

 

[KZD]

Interesting sprint races with a few surprises, Desthieux was really good considering that he has been having a poor season when compared with the last seasons and Laegreid was quite lower than usual for a guy that has been one of the fastest skiers in time trial races during the season. This will likely mean game over in the fight for the World Cup overall unless something happens to JTB. And of course, great win by Ponsiluoma reminding me of Doll in 2017, a very good skier that had a perfect day in the range.

In the women's, the winner was probably the most expected one but great race by Echkoff, Chevalier and Hanna Sola for an interesting podium, she is a bit of a surprise but has been quite good during the season. Öberg looked quite slow when compared with her performance in Antholz so its unlikely that she will manage to win the Norwegians in World Cup. As negative performance besides Mironova's meltdown in the shooting range that can happen to anyone, I would likely to point Braisaz that is looking a shadow of her former self in the tracks.

 

[zarnack]

Öberg looked quite slow when compared with her performance in Antholz so its unlikely that she will manage to win the Norwegians in World Cup.

I think Eckhoff is a clear favourite for the overall world cup at this stage, once you factor in the removal of worst scores. Basically Eckhoff needs to be among Röiseland/Öberg in the overall points and she would win by the virtue of not dropping points (Eckhoff has two 0-scores already). Basically Eckhoff would have to flop hard for the remainder of the season NOT to win the overall.

 

[titan31]

Östersund is stepping in for Holmenkollen in the biathlon.

If Nove Mesto is cancelled too, are just doing double Ostersund, or is it only cross country Nove Mesto that is cancelled

 

[Mayomaniac]

Those FIS dorks should just give the XC skiing World Cup final to Tyumen to make a point.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

If Nove Mesto is cancelled too, are just doing double Ostersund, or is it only cross country Nove Mesto that is cancelled

No other changes to the program are notified as of yet, it would be double Nové Město before Östersund anyway so would probably have ended up with triple Östersund. I think it's XC only for the time being and it's to do with the travel as the athletes have the opportunity to go home or go training after Pokljuka THEN go to NMNM, and then they won't be travelling into Germany from the Czech Republic but instead up to Sweden, which isn't closing borders etc. at this stage.

 

[BullsFan22]

Those FIS dorks should just give the XC skiing World Cup final to Tyumen to make a point.

That would be great, however I don’t think the Scandinavians would go and who else would go? The Scandinavians didn’t go to Rybinsk every time when there were no restrictions. Who else? Would the Germans go to Russia after Oberstdorf with the restrictions?

 

[Discgear]

Next year and for the time being, IBU and FIS should move all planned competitions in Norway to other countries. To harvest the fruits by participating in the most attractive events abroad with the biggest possible team, but let other nations bear the burden in arranging competitions with no income from spectators, just stinks. They are by far the country who have suffered the least from the pandemic, but expect others to carry all the responsibility.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

In fairness, it's only the XC where they've cherry-picked the calendar. The biathlon, ski jump and NoCo teams have done the full calendar. Which is why the arguments made to defend the XC team are so farcical. They claimed it was because of poor standard of isolation/Covid protocols in Ruka at one point, which is comical because the ski jump and NoCo teams were there too and they've done the full calendar, as well as throwing the Finns under the bus considering they themselves haven't organised any events and are relying on others to do it while judging their efforts from afar.

 

[titan31]

Next year and for the time being, IBU and FIS should move all planned competitions in Norway to other countries. To harvest the fruits by participating in the most attractive events abroad with the biggest possible team, but let other nations bear the burden in arranging competitions with no income from spectators, just stinks. They are by far the country who have suffered the least from the pandemic, but expect others to carry all the responsibility.

Tbf their travel restrictions are a big part of why they've suffered less.

 

[zarnack]

With 5 events completed in Pokljuka, it looks like the form of Russians peaked in January. They haven't been as good any more. Among "big countries" Germany also without a medal, and they seem to be carried entirely by women, who have only marginally been left outside top 3 so far. That Norway, France and to an extent Sweden would win majority of medals is nothing out of ordinary, while Austria keeps being carried by Hauser.

I thought in men's pursuit the gaps became huge. 8th place lost by 2 minutes already.

Next up individuals, with decent likelihood of seeing some unexpected result(s).

 

[KZD]

Today's race is exactly why I don't think that JTB will be as big as Bjorndalen or Martin Fourcade. Sure he is the best in the world but he just doesn't seem to reach its best shape when it matters most. Today Jacquelin and Samuelsson did incredible races its quite surprising to see that he was never pursuit world champion after so many tries. Jacquelin's standing shooting on the other hand has been incredible, he lacks the consistency of JTB during a season but when he's on, he is very difficult to beat in inline races. The French are also looking thefavourites for the relay since Dale and Tarjei Boe have been missing too much and Sturla Laegreid losing speed.

On the women's Eckhoff seems to have learnt her lesson from last season and looks set to become both the best female athlete of the championships and the World Cup, quite deserved after she lost it by only 6 points last season. Chevalier continues her great run but unlike in the men's, she is not followed by her teammates and that leaves Germany and Norway as the favourites for the relay. Finally Wierer with a great race today, she is looking good for taking another gold in the individual and Hauser continues her incredible season, one of the best skiers in the world at the moment.

 

[titan31]

Women's really is fairly open I think. Norway and Germany look the strongest but option 4 for each is weak and even amongst the top 3 of each they re all capable of messing it up in the range.

I'm hoping Eder can medal in the men's individual. Don't think he can win as there are a good few who can beat him with one less miss, but his shooting deserves an individual medal.

 

[Norbea]

JTB should focus less on overall World Cup next year and do some changes to prepare for the olympics. What he is doing now doesn't work for the big events. It doesn't help to do major changes to his weapon just days before the championship.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Women's really is fairly open I think. Norway and Germany look the strongest but option 4 for each is weak and even amongst the top 3 of each they re all capable of messing it up in the range.

I'm hoping Eder can medal in the men's individual. Don't think he can win as there are a good few who can beat him with one less miss, but his shooting deserves an individual medal.

Thing is, on form Ida Lien has got to be the lead-off for Norway, Knotten has had a couple of recent relay catastrophes and Lien has been solid here in Pokljuka. However, she's only done the one relay for Norway recently, which was in Oberhof in an unfamiliar role because they were easing Tandrevold back in on leg 1 after her collapse. For Germany, Janina Hettich is the obvious 'fourth wheel' and the lineup is probably pretty fixed as well as Hinz-Hettich-Herrmann-Preuß has worked for most of the season. Hettich has made a few shooting errors here, but for most of the season she has shot excellently and her skiing isn't great but it's passable. Both are perfectly fine biathletes as option 4, when nobody else has top-down strength at the same level as the two teams' top 3 options. There's nobody with a quartet without a single prospective weak link in the women's field, but Hettich has a reasonably established body of work in relays and hasn't let the team down at all. Lien is more of a gamble simply as she hasn't done many team races at this level.

The rest of the field will be interesting. France don't seem to be at the races, Anaïs Chevalier-Bouchet excepted, but they are good athletes. Braisaz is off her pace, and Simon tends to perform better in the head to head races. Belarus were a surprise package through January, but while Sola got her medal and Alimbekava was great today, Kruchynkina has had a horrible Worlds, shooting badly AND being slow in the Mixed Relay, and Kryuko missed the pursuit in the sprint. Russia were great in January too, but Mironova's old shooting woes are back, Akimova hasn't raced here yet, but at least Kazakevich is performing like she did in December again, she'd gone awol lately. Italy have the problem of depth, plus Vittozzi's confidence is all over the place at the moment, scoring her best result in aeons in the sprint only to then fall from the top 5 all the way out of the points today. The Czechs are not the threat they were a few years ago, Davidová is their only reliable hand (unless you can't the ever-reliable bet on Lucie Charvátová doing penalty loops), and so Sweden and Ukraine are the most likely threats. For Sweden, however, Elvira Öberg's relay shooting lately has been all over the place and Hanna looks very laboured out there on the skis compared to the best skiers out there, very unlike December, and for Ukraine there are question marks about basically everybody bar Pidhrushna, although they have a history of overperformance in relays. The team is now growing old together and apart from Blashko they don't really seem to have any injection of youth even on the horizon. Ekaterina Bekh has been sent down to the IBU, and Valj Semerenko was 50th in the sprint and didn't start today. Dzhima used to be a great relay fighter and rolled the clocks back in the Mixed Relay. She was also pretty good today. Her and Blashko finished together on the same shooting record - only Blashko started 14th and Dhzima 37th, and they met in the middle (24th & 25th). But the fourth wheel there is going to be the question mark, and if we say Pidhrushna is the anchor, then we're talking Dzhima & Blashko on middle legs vs., using the recent history as a guide which suggests Olsbu Røiseland and Preuß will be the anchors for their respective teams, Tandrevold & Eckhoff, and Hinz & Herrmann...

 

[zarnack]

Relays often give unexpected results anyway and "paper favourites" count for little. In women relays there can be up to 10 countries, who can compete for medals on their day. And just as a minor remark I notice that for example even the Swiss women (Häcki + 3 Gasparins) seem to be going well in Pokljuka.

In men's relays the level seems a bit more fixed. Either FRA or NOR usually wins. GER/RUS compete for a podium. SWE is the most inconsistent and unpredictable one due to steep drop in depth after their first two athletes. On their day they can compete at the top, but they can easily flop hard too.

If we are looking at the weakest links of each team in women, then the order of the 4th best athlete of each country, who had at least 4 athletes in the pursuit: 17th Lien (Nor), 34th Hettich (Ger), 35th A.Gasparin (Sui), 36th Bescond (Fra), 51st Lardschneider (Ita), 53rd Brorsson (Swe), 55th Reid (Usa), DNF Semerenko (Ukr).

So what concerns having "weak links" everything is relative. If your 4th best athlete is better than the 4th best athlete of any other country, relatively speaking you are still better off than others.

 

[titan31]

I'd say in general that the Swedish 4th is better than Norways 4th as Lien hasnt really done much this year and Knotten is so slow that if she misses, Norway are a minute back. Tandrevold aswell is skiing slower lately and I wouldn't be trusting her to pull back time if Norway are behind. If they're within 30/40 seconds after leg 2, they have the best 3 and 4 but so often this year they seem well behind by then.

 

[search]

I'd tend to add Austria to that list as well, going by the wave of success they are riding on. Zdouc and Schwaiger are capable of an almost error-free shooting to stay in touch, and Innerhofer was 3rd quickest yesterday, so the shape seems to be quite good. Of course, it needs a little miracle for her to survive the shooting range, but overall I'd say there is a chance to launch Hauser in a decent enough position.

 

[Bubba]

Glad to see Davidova and Czechia winning.
Would have liked to have seen Hauser winning though.
Happy for Tandrevold after a bad season.

After this result with Lien yet again performing well both shooting and pace wise, Norway should be clear favorites for the relay, but a shooting collapse is of course always a realistic scenario for all 4 of them.

 

[Gigs_98]

Existence is pain

 

[Bubba]

Existence is pain

Some cryptic buddhist wisdom is always welcome!

 

[titan31]

Delighted for Davidova and Tandrevold.

So happy Davidova won it over Oeberg or Hauser.

Found the coverage crap again, I don't think they picked up Davidova or Tandrevold until shooting 4.

And now Eurosport ruining the medal presentation with their audio issues.