Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

[zarnack]

By the way, I have understood that due to covid-19 (higher risk of missing events) IBU has decided to drop 4 worst scores this season, instead of usual 2. So I decided to look at how many points would each World Cup contender drop as of now.

JTB -137
Lägreid -98

Eckhoff -41
Öberg -79
Röiseland -80

This means that effectively Lägreid is far closer to JTB than current standings would indicate. JTB has finished in top 10 in all (!) races so far this season, which means that he is going to drop a fair amount of points.

However, this also indicates that in addition to consistency you need good peak performance as well to seal the cup. Currently Lägreid has 5 wins to JTB 4 this season. JTB can't afford to finish at the back end of top 10, he would need to win more races to feel safe.

Eckhoff meanwhile should feel fairly safe. She has currently 8 wins, while Öberg/Röiseland have each 2. And with dropped scores Eckhoff has effectively a whole race win advantage over them at the moment.

 

[roundabout]

Norway again beat by the French on the last lap. They fair need to go away over the summer and work on that as it happens way too often.

Simon is an excellent finisher. I think even athletes themselves think she is one of the very best.

I think not coming out of the last shooting with her is the best way

 

[BullsFan22]

I feel sorry for the athletes that will take part in the World Championships next week in Oberstdorf. Highs of 15 Celsius, above freezing during the night, no spectators...at least during the TDS and really at the other WC’s this season it looked like a real winter. I hope FIS is smart enough to start the races earlier, not during the hottest part of the day, as they did in Seefeld two years ago, but unlikely that’ll happen, as they have to bow down to TV. Also, the 2005 Worlds in Oberstdorf took place 16-27 February, and apart from the 50km which was raced in a storm, it was pretty good conditions. Just a few days ago it was cold and it seemed like lots of snow. This week it seems like a totally different place, from what I see on the web.

 

[zarnack]

I feel sorry for the athletes that will take part in the World Championships next week in Oberstdorf. Highs of 15 Celsius, above freezing during the night, no spectators...at least during the TDS and really at the other WC’s this season it looked like a real winter. I hope FIS is smart enough to start the races earlier, not during the hottest part of the day, as they did in Seefeld two years ago, but unlikely that’ll happen, as they have to bow down to TV. Also, the 2005 Worlds in Oberstdorf took place 16-27 February, and apart from the 50km which was raced in a storm, it was pretty good conditions. Just a few days ago it was cold and it seemed like lots of snow. This week it seems like a totally different place, from what I see on the web.

This means two things for competitions. Waxing will be more crucial in hot conditions and probably some teams/athletes will have bad days on that front. And groups in mass-starts will disintegrate more easily in tough warm slushy conditions. We could get some big gaps in marathon like happened in 2007 Sapporo and 2018 Pyeongchang 30/50 km races.

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Any information on why Norway is starting with Christiansen as anchor man for the relay and leaving Dale out?

 

[zarnack]

Dale was 4th in sprint and 3rd in individual, so leaving him out is indeed a bit surprising. If anything, Tarjei Bö has been the weakest link of the Norwegian quartet so far.

Why would Christiansen be on the anchor leg? I can guess no other explanation than that maybe Norway is trying to look for someone with a good finishing ability. We know JTB has been repeatedly beaten by Jacquelin at the finish. And Lägreid was beaten by Latypov in Oberhof mixed relay finish. So Norway simply doesn't have anyone with a good finishing ability. Whether putting your most unproven skier to the final leg is a good choice, is still questionable though. They didn't even give him a chance in the 20km individual to prove himself.

In other news Ida Lien has been put to 3rd leg in women's competition. Maybe to reduce the pressure of needing to shoot perfectly on leg 1, to stay in the game? Also France has left out Braisaz in favour of Chloe Chevalier. And Russia has left out Kazakevich, who was their best in both sprint and pursuit. Certainly some surprising choices there.

 

[roundabout]

I am guessing that Christiansen has the best finish, otherwise it makes no sense to use him as an anchor.

Edit: beaten by Zarnack like Bö and Eckhoff

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Dale was 4th in sprint and 3rd in individual, so leaving him out is indeed a bit surprising. If anything, Tarjei Bö has been the weakest link of the Norwegian quartet so far.

Why would Christiansen be on the anchor leg? I can guess no other explanation than that maybe Norway is trying to look for someone with a good finishing ability. We know JTB has been repeatedly beaten by Jacquelin at the finish. And Lägreid was beaten by Latypov in Oberhof mixed relay finish. So Norway simply doesn't have anyone with a good finishing ability. Whether putting your most unproven skier to the final leg is a good choice, is still questionable though. They didn't even give him a chance in the 20km individual to prove himself.

In other news Ida Lien has been put to 3rd leg in women's competition. Maybe to reduce the pressure of needing to shoot perfectly on leg 1, to stay in the game? Also France has left out Braisaz in favour of Chloe Chevalier. And Russia has left out Kazakevich, who was their best in both sprint and pursuit. Certainly some surprising choices there.

Russia at least has some sense behind it: the Pavlova-Akimova-Mironova-Kaisheva quartet won the last World Cup relay. However certainly you could argue that both Kazakevich and Kuklina deserve a spot. I think they might be handling Kazakevich with kid gloves, she's young and she's had an up and down season in her first year on the World Cup, she's one of only two Russians to qualify for the mass start on the women's side. She also shot a penalty in her last relay (in Hochfilzen). Considering they have had a problem in recent years with overtraining and overworking athletes and this has wiped out some of their most promising athletes, I'm not too concerned if they want to handle Kazakevich with care, as she looks like a keeper for the World Cup team.

Though then, the choice of Akimova over Kuklina becomes a headscratcher. Both athletes have only done one race at these championships, the Individual, and Kuklina was 14th with 19/20, and Akimova 29th with 18/20. Akimova was over a minute behind so would have lost time to Kuklina on equal shooting. The team also went Pavlova-Kuklina-Mironova-Kaisheva in Oberhof and she was very good in that, shooting 0+1 0+0 and pulling time back on the leaders.

I am most baffled by the choice of Christiansen as anchor, especially as he's coming off a cold open. Unless they think drafting him in completely fresh gives them a positive wildcard in the manner of Holund in Seefeld, and that will be of benefit as against the likes of Jacquelin, Doll and Samuelsson who've already done a minimum of 3 races already at these championships?

 

[titan31]

Odd lineups, particularly from the Norwegians.

Was assuming Lien would go leg 1 as she's the slowest skier and it's generally the slowest leg. If Norway are down, she isn't really going to pull time back and likely will lose time.

Men's also crazy, I thought Christensen might start pre Championships as Dale has had some bad performances through the year but he's been good the last few races so didn't think Christensen would come in. Then him coming him on the last leg was not expected. Be interesting to see will these work.

 

[zarnack]

Huh, Röiseland almost blew it for Norway in the first prone, but overall the ski speed depth of the team was too much for the rest to beat. Germany lost too much ground with Hettich, but still silver. And Ukraine 3rd for the third WCH relay in a row. Wonder, how long can they keep that streak up.

Sweden lost too much ground with Skottheim, France lost gradually ground from second leg onwards with Chevaliers.

But one of the big stories of course is Poland. Last year they were leading after 3 legs, now they were again up there in top 3. Maka on the final leg is better than 40-y-o Gwizdon was last year, so Poland almost has got a competitive relay quartet now. And this on the back of showing very little throughout the world cup season.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Huh, Röiseland almost blew it for Norway in the first prone, but overall the ski speed depth of the team was too much for the rest to beat. Germany lost too much ground with Hettich, but still silver. And Ukraine 3rd for the third WCH relay in a row. Wonder, how long can they keep that streak up.

Sweden lost too much ground with Skottheim, France lost gradually ground from second leg onwards with Chevaliers.

But one of the big stories of course is Poland. Last year they were leading after 3 legs, now they were again up there in top 3. Maka on the final leg is better than 40-y-o Gwizdon was last year, so Poland almost has got a competitive relay quartet now. And this on the back of showing very little throughout the world cup season.

They did well at the European Championships with Hojnisz and Żuk getting golds, mind, although that was on home snow so they entered the 'A' team against most people's IBU Cup squads.

 

[Bubba]

Wow..
That last stretch by Lesser was shockingly bad.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Yeah, something went very wrong

 

[Bubba]

Are there any cooler events in endurance based winter sports than men's relay in biathlon?

 

[Bubba]

And they miss and they miss and they miss.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

It's mostly cool, when the other countries don't just hand the victory to Norway

 

[Bubba]

It's mostly cool, when the other countries don't just hand the victory to Norway

Haha..
Sure, but even Norway collapse from time to time and once in a decade even Ukraine wins!

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Haha..
Sure, but even Norway collapse from time to time and once in a decade even Ukraine wins!

Sure, but as a Dane, I just enjoy the collapses or at least the tighter races far more

 

[Bubba]

Sure, but as a Dane, I just enjoy the collapses or at least the tighter races far more

Hehe...
I agree this quickly turned one of the more boring ones to be fair, so probably not the most well timed question from me..

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Hehe...
I agree this quickly turned one of the more boring ones to be fair, so probably not the most well timed question from me..

Christiansen could still blow it, but the gap is probably too big. The other medals are still up in the air though.

 

[zarnack]

It looks like ski preparation played a role here. France was struggling in ski speed in both relays today. And Germany was nowhere in the men's relay, even though women did well. So this frankly left Norway untouched in men's relay.

All this opened the door for a potential surprise medalist, i.e Ukraine and Italy, who were in top 3 for a while. But in the end usual suspects took their own. Russia finally opened their medal count too.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

In the end it was the shooting that let the French down, but that could obviously be because they had to push more on the slopes due to worse skiis.

 

[KZD]

Norway really did a good choice with their bold strategy but more than that ski preparation gave them the edge against France, their biggest rivals. At least we had a good fight in the women's with Olsbu far from her best and a great final leg from Preuss and Pidrushuna with a brilliant performance in the relay again.

Lesser was truly bad and even with the poor skis that they had underneath, France is the loser of the day because both QFM and Jacquelin missed too much and Samuelsson showed once again how great he is.

Let's hope for a more balanced playing field tomorrow but Norway has already guaranteed to finish on the top of the medals

 

[DenisMenchov]

I think Relay rules really need to be changed. Those extra bullets almost eliminate the shooting part of the competition, but on the other hand one bad shooting can ruin your whole race which is not the case in other events. In other events a penalty for every miss is always the same.

Ski speed is already the more important part of the biathlon (I'd say 70% - 30% in favor of skiing). They need to balance the disciplines.

Maybe make a penalty loop 50 meters longer in the sprint and mass start, eliminate the extra bullets in relays. And make it a 45 seconds penalty in the individual.

Now the rules are just so unbalanced even among the disciplines let alone the two components of the sport.

 

[Bubba]

I think Relay rules really need to be changed. Those extra bullets almost eliminate the shooting part of the competition, but on the other hand one bad shooting can ruin your whole race which is not the case in other events. In other events a penalty for every miss is always the same.

Ski speed is already the more important part of the biathlon (I'd say 70% - 30% in favor of skiing). They need to balance the disciplines.

Maybe make a penalty loop 50 meters longer in the sprint and mass start, eliminate the extra bullets in relays. And make it a 45 seconds penalty in the individual.

Now the rules are just so unbalanced even among the disciplines let alone the two components of the sport.

I disagree!


70/30 is probably correct for the sprint, not so much in the events where you have 4 shootings, especially in the mass start....
In the individual the balance is more the other way than anything else.
In the single mix relay even Estland(!) have podiumed once, so obviously skiing isn't very important there either as they hardly ski!

I think biathlon have done a wonderful job in devloping their product in the last 20-25 years and the debth in the top have never been better.
I don't see a point in diluting the skiing any farther just to allow worse athletes to be competitive.

If levelling the playing field is the goal, I prefer Björn Ferry's suggestion: Everyone gets a random pair of pre waxed skis from a common pool of skis (where the worst and best have been removed), that would significantly reduce costs for smaller nations, but more importantly make them automatically more competitive.
Today Norway come across as even better skiers than they actually are just by having better skis than for instance the french far too often.
It's somewhat something of a mystery to me how especially the french botch their skis too often as I am under the impression that they are probably in the top 3-4 as far as resources go.