Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

[BullsFan22]

What was de Fabiani trying to do there?!

Edit: Bolshunov looked like he had blown up pretty badly here but seems to have been having a bad spell only; Klæbo is hitching a ride on the Iivo train because it's distance in classic so just looking for Iivo and sitting behind him is never a bad idea.

I watched that incident in slo-mo again and it’s absolutely not De Fabiani’s fault. It was all Even Northug.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Iversen? Based on what result? He was 7th in Ruka. The only other 15km classic he did was in Lenzerheide. He finished 59th there. He also struggles at altitude. He has either taken sandbagging to a whole other level or he’s expecting miracles next month.

I never expected Valnes to ski this well in distance races. A top 30 here and there, but not solidly in the top 10, especially not on a tough course like this.

Yeah, I guess Iversen, who has already been confirmed to be on the Olympics team, will probably race the 2 mass starts, but atm they don't have that many options for the 15km classic. Roethe is clearly below his best and Holund hasn't impressed me as a classic skier this year, Nyengent or Toenseth are probably the best picks, I'd save Amundsen for the skating distance races and the relay.

 

[KZD]

So for the 15km classic at the olympics Norway will probably select Klaebo, Golberg, Valnes and Iversen? At least that would be my guess, looks like the most plausible selection to me.

I don't believe Iversen will be selected for the Olympics the way that he has been racing this season. My guess would be Klæbo, Golberg, Valnes and Tonseth if the latter one is selected for the Olympics. Otherwise, then probably Holund could race or even Amundsen if selected.

As for how many golds Klæbo can get in the Olympics, I think that he has a really good chance of getting 5medals but 5 golds is much more difficult. I think there is a good chance that Russia manages to win one team race and in the 15km classic while I really see him getting a medal in this sort of shape, Niskanen is still the favourite and Russia also has good chances with Bolshunov and Chervotkin. Even the skiathlon gold is far from certain if people like Ustiugov or Krüger are in top shape and I can't see him winning the 50km in skating unless there is a really low pace.

 

[BigCoward]

As for how many golds Klæbo can get in the Olympics, I think that he has a really good chance of getting 5medals but 5 golds is much more difficult. I think there is a good chance that Russia manages to win one team race and in the 15km classic while I really see him getting a medal in this sort of shape, Niskanen is still the favourite and Russia also has good chances with Bolshunov and Chervotkin. Even the skiathlon gold is far from certain if people like Ustiugov or Krüger are in top shape and I can't see him winning the 50km in skating unless there is a really low pace.

I meant he could win 5 different golds, not actually win 5 golds.
I think he wins sprint, 90% team sprint and relay, 33% skiathlon, 33% 50km. Unlikely for the 15km unless he has his best individual day ever.

 

[Bavarianrider]

I still dont think that Klaebo will be at his best at 20 degrees sub Zero and dry slow snow. I think some totalbdark horses might suprise at the Olympics.

 

[BullsFan22]

I meant he could win 5 different golds, not actually win 5 golds.
I think he wins sprint, 90% team sprint and relay, 33% skiathlon, 33% 50km. Unlikely for the 15km unless he has his best individual day ever.

Relay is definitely not 90%. Team sprint is not a foregone conclusion either. I think Valnes will find it tough on those courses. If the Russians are in shape and have their ski preparation nailed, they’ll definitely push the pace on the classic legs, just as they did in 2018. They played it right then, unfortunately Chervotkin had just recovered from illness that had him sidelined after the TDS and (Bolshunov had the same issue but he was able to recover more quickly though) and was far from his best. He had to against Krüger who had won the skiathlon and finished 2nd in the 15km. Spitsov then had to make up time on Klæbo and Backscheider of France with some less than ideal skis under his feet. The Russians also didn’t have Ustiugov, Belov, Bessmertnykh, Legkov, Vylegzhanin, etc, on that team, which cost them. That’s why Chervotkin had to ski the third leg. Melnichenko made the Olympics then but he came into his own the following season. In short, the Russians were at a disadvantage before the Olympics even started. Things should be different now. Ustiugov is more than likely going to be a part of the relay, plus they’ll have Yakimushkin, Maltsev, Semikov, Terentjev as options for the relay.

 

[BigCoward]

Relay is definitely not 90%. Team sprint is not a foregone conclusion either. I think Valnes will find it tough on those courses. If the Russians are in shape and have their ski preparation nailed, they’ll definitely push the pace on the classic legs, just as they did in 2018. They played it right then, unfortunately Chervotkin had just recovered from illness that had him sidelined after the TDS and (Bolshunov had the same issue but he was able to recover more quickly though) and was far from his best. He had to against Krüger who had won the skiathlon and finished 2nd in the 15km. Spitsov then had to make up time on Klæbo and Backscheider of France with some less than ideal skis under his feet. The Russians also didn’t have Ustiugov, Belov, Bessmertnykh, Legkov, Vylegzhanin, etc, on that team, which cost them. That’s why Chervotkin had to ski the third leg. Melnichenko made the Olympics then but he came into his own the following season. In short, the Russians were at a disadvantage before the Olympics even started. Things should be different now. Ustiugov is more than likely going to be a part of the relay, plus they’ll have Yakimushkin, Maltsev, Semikov, Terentjev as options for the relay.

We clearly just have a different idea of how much better Klaebo is than everyone else. I don't think anyone can drop him anymore no matter how hard they make it (maybe even over 50km), and he wins any sprint easily. Norway don't have to do anything in the sprint/relay other than follow Russia, I don't see anything between the teams in either race, so inevitably Klaebo wins.
Also Bolshunov is not the man he was over last 2 years, and his schedule doesn't make me think he's going to get better.

 

[Mayomaniac]

I still dont think that Klaebo will be at his best at 20 degrees sub Zero and dry slow snow. I think some totalbdark horses might suprise at the Olympics.

I expect the Russians to be really strong with those conditions.

 

[OJRvE]

I don't believe Iversen will be selected for the Olympics the way that he has been racing this season. My guess would be Klæbo, Golberg, Valnes and Tonseth if the latter one is selected for the Olympics. Otherwise, then probably Holund could race or even Amundsen if selected.

Iversen is already selected for the olympics and I guess 15k is the race that make most sense for him at the moment. Amundsen and Toensteh probably won’t be at the Olympics since they underperformed in race that mattered for them during the tour while Roethe and Golberg podiumed.

 

[BigCoward]

FFS is it a mass start again? What a stupid f'ing decision.
I know everyone hates Diggins but at least she is going for it

 

[Mayomaniac]

FFS is it a mass start again? What a stupid f'ing decision.
I know everyone hates Diggins but at least she is going for it

The final pursuit was the on things that made the climb appealing, but the FIS is just horrible an has to ruin everything...
If it was up to me we'd have way more pursuits and the Skiathlon would be replaced by a 30km/20km pursuit in the other technique at the WC and the Olympics.

 

[BullsFan22]

It makes no sense to have this final stage be a mass start, especially not on this narrow trail. It’s too dangerous.

 

[BullsFan22]

We clearly just have a different idea of how much better Klaebo is than everyone else. I don't think anyone can drop him anymore no matter how hard they make it (maybe even over 50km), and he wins any sprint easily. Norway don't have to do anything in the sprint/relay other than follow Russia, I don't see anything between the teams in either race, so inevitably Klaebo wins.
Also Bolshunov is not the man he was over last 2 years, and his schedule doesn't make me think he's going to get better.

Klæbo won’t ski the relays by himself. The Russians will need to drop his teammates, and if they do, I’d like to see him chasing a decent gap rather than being chased or sitting behind all the time.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

FFS is it a mass start again? What a stupid f'ing decision.
I know everyone hates Diggins but at least she is going for it

Gonna be her, Ebba and Heidi Weng that need to do all the pulling I think, they are the ones who have the potential to pressure Nepryaeva, and the time gaps between them are going to be key. Weng is 2" ahead of Diggins and both are around 30" behind Andersson. Nepryaeva is not very well placed, but whether that's just energy conservation because everybody knows this section between the stadium and the climb is not going to be decisive, or if she's not feeling good or hasn't got good skis, we will see.

Doing this stage mass start is stupid on this section, it's so narrow. Winterton just said "gone are the days when the races would take you into the forests for 30km, now it's all little laps of 2, 3, 4km. And a good thing too". He is the person I despise most in cross-country skiing, not Diggins or Klæbo. I wouldn't despise Diggins nearly as much if it wasn't for him, as she would merely be a really annoying competitor, rather than somebody who needs to be eliminated from contention urgently to give us the chance of actually hearing about any other athlete on commentary.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Looks like Diggins started a bit too fast.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Looks like Diggins started a bit too fast.

It's ok, ES International are blaming the skis.

 

[Mayomaniac]

It's ok, ES International are blaming the skis.

thats why I watch the race on Swiss TV.
How do they explain her skis being poor while her young teammate Laukli is surprising everyone?

 

[Libertine Seguros]

thats why I watch the race on Swiss TV.
How do they explain her skis being poor while her young teammate Laukli is surprising everyone?

Winterton still can't accept the concept (Dixon has suggested it) that maybe Diggins isn't among the very elite in Classic the way she is in Freestyle and simply has to hang on in the classic stages in an event like this, so the skis have to be to blame, and that now becomes the standard go-to regardless of circumstances.

Also McCabe is going really well too.

Claudel is definitely somebody to keep an eye on on the Alpe, she is building quite the reputation as a climber, she's very thin and a pure distance specialist who only periodically shows up at the top of the results, usually in long distance races with lots of climbing. Kind of like my favourite American skier of yesteryear, Liz Stephen.

ES have had nothing to say about Laukli whatsoever, but they break from all prior discussions to hold a wake about Diggins coming in two minutes down. They've made a big deal of McCabe beating Diggins, but I think because of the Nordic name they have almost failed to notice that Laukli is also American, lol.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Winterton still can't accept the concept (Dixon has suggested it) that maybe Diggins isn't among the very elite in Classic the way she is in Freestyle and simply has to hang on in the classic stages in an event like this, so the skis have to be to blame, and that now becomes the standard go-to regardless of circumstances.

Also McCabe is going really well too.

Claudel is definitely somebody to keep an eye on on the Alpe, she is building quite the reputation as a climber, she's very thin and a pure distance specialist who only periodically shows up at the top of the results, usually in long distance races with lots of climbing. Kind of like my favourite American skier of yesteryear, Liz Stephen.

Yes, on the men's side local guy Roland Clara was similar.

 

[Mayomaniac]

On the men's side my pick for the stage win is Spitsov, Roethe seems to be clearly below his best.
It's gonna be ineresting to see if Calles weight loss strategy pays off today. Moch and Schumacher could end up in the stage top 10, no idea what to expect from Amundsen, but he could do well.

 

[DenisMenchov]

We clearly just have a different idea of how much better Klaebo is than everyone else. I don't think anyone can drop him anymore no matter how hard they make it (maybe even over 50km), and he wins any sprint easily. Norway don't have to do anything in the sprint/relay other than follow Russia, I don't see anything between the teams in either race, so inevitably Klaebo wins.
Also Bolshunov is not the man he was over last 2 years, and his schedule doesn't make me think he's going to get better.

It's not something that sounds too easy. If we agree that Klaebo is skiing the anchor leg, then Norway might have a real big problem matching the Chervotkin/Bolshunov in the classics leg. Yes, Klaebo is dominant now, but who are the two guys that will go in the first two legs? Iversen's form is ridiculous, Golberg feels like he's well past his prime, he even lost a minute to Chervotkin last year at the World Championships. So maybe they would need to put Valnes and Krueger in the classics legs. And let's not forget that Ustiugov and Spitsov weren't there last year for Russia in the freestyle legs. Now Sergey is just eyeing the Olympics after he was't allowed to go last time.

 

[BullsFan22]

Winterton still can't accept the concept (Dixon has suggested it) that maybe Diggins isn't among the very elite in Classic the way she is in Freestyle and simply has to hang on in the classic stages in an event like this, so the skis have to be to blame, and that now becomes the standard go-to regardless of circumstances.

Also McCabe is going really well too.

Claudel is definitely somebody to keep an eye on on the Alpe, she is building quite the reputation as a climber, she's very thin and a pure distance specialist who only periodically shows up at the top of the results, usually in long distance races with lots of climbing. Kind of like my favourite American skier of yesteryear, Liz Stephen.

ES have had nothing to say about Laukli whatsoever, but they break from all prior discussions to hold a wake about Diggins coming in two minutes down. They've made a big deal of McCabe beating Diggins, but I think because of the Nordic name they have almost failed to notice that Laukli is also American, lol.

Laukli’s father is Norwegian. She speaks fluent Norwegian. She’s raced the college circuit in the US. She’s extremely skinny though. Unhealthily so.

 

[BullsFan22]

Nepryaeva skied within herself. Didn’t panic at all on the narrow trail leading to the final climb. Made an acceleration as they started the climb, tucked in behind the Finns and then made her move a bit later on. I am wondering if she played it safe or was very confident of her abilities and her current form.

Weng even wheel sucks going up uphill. Andersson was going to have a hard time trying to outsprint her. She needed to maybe try to push a tad more, but perhaps this is her level at the moment, she can’t do better. Claudel is a skate hill climbing expert. I’d give her a chance at surprising everyone in the 30km at the Olympics.

Nepryaeva will now not only think about the Olympics, but also the overall World Cup. My hope is that they won’t be chasing points every weekend and just prepare for China. Though I saw that Borodavko’s group will race in France and Slovenija. Not a smart strategy, in my humble opinion, but this is Borodavko we’re talking about here.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Klæbo won’t ski the relays by himself. The Russians will need to drop his teammates, and if they do, I’d like to see him chasing a decent gap rather than being chased or sitting behind all the time.

They need to put Bolshunov on the second classic part and Ustiugov to do the anchor. Then they have a chance, but surely they won`t be that smart.

 

[BullsFan22]

They need to put Bolshunov on the second classic part and Ustiugov to do the anchor. Then they have a chance, but surely they won`t be that smart.

Well it’ll depend on the results of the skiathlon and more so the 15km. If someone like Chervotkin and Yakimushkin/Semikov challenge for the medals (top 5-8) and how they compare with the Norwegians, then they may put them on the first two legs, with Bolshunov doing the 3rd leg. Do they go for a gap with Bolshunov on the 2nd leg and hope that someone like Maltsev/Spitsov/Yakimushkin (he’s equally good in both styles) can keep Krüger/Holund at bay? What if the Russians aren’t able to create a gap after the first two legs? Will the third leg skier drop Krüger/Holund? Then they risk being dropped and Ustiugov needing to pull a Bolshunov and try and catch Klæbo. Some are suggesting Terentjev as the lead off man. I’d first like to see him with some good distance results and he hasn’t made it to another final since he won I Ruka. He looked quite depleted during the second half of the race yesterday. He had a very good leg in Lillehammer that helped create a gap, but that’s a much easier course than what they are going to face in China.

We’ll also see what Ustiugov will do when he comes back to the WC in ten days time.