Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

[Bavarianrider]

I doubt Klaebo is even better than Terentyev in classics sprint to be honest. The look pretty evenly matched. He is Russian number 1.

True, but can Terentev match him on the third loop, too. That is the qeustion.

 

[BullsFan22]

And what about Ustiugov as a strong option in the team sprint? He has the stamina and the finishing speed. If he's in the form he was 2012-2018, especially that 16/17 season where he dominated the TDS and World Championships, he would, I think, be a lock for a place in that team sprint. The question then becomes do you want Bolshunov in the team to drive the pace and grind away the opposition, including Valnes (or whoever skis that first leg for the Norwegians), or do you want Terentjev on the second leg to match Klæbo on the uphills, especially on the final lap? I think the first two races in China will decide who will race that team sprint for the Russians. Based on classic sprinting, yes, you'd pick Bolshunov and Terentjev, but Ustiugov has the experience and if he's in form, it's hard to see him not in that race. Or would they save him for the remaining races, like the relay and 50km skate? He's certainly not going to race the 15km classic, even with that 5th place from Ruka. He can deal with altitude as good as Bolshunov can and if the conditions are going to be as people say they will, hard packed and courses tough, that'll be good for Ustiugov and the Russians. Nobody talks about the French, they may put up a decent fight, Jouve is in the form of his life and Chanavat can pop a good classic race as well. Problem is will they still be in form in 6 weeks or so? Also, will Niskanen ski in that team sprint? Perhaps he will, if he's in good form he would give the Finns a huge lift in that race.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Klæbo winning a sprint is almost a foregone conclusion, all credit to Valnes for making it close. He would have had a better chance if he took the uphill corner better, but nobody does that better than Klæbo.

Terentjev not only lost his chance with that error he also didn’t help Bolshunov any. Not that Bolshunov has a shot. His form just isn’t good enough to challenge at this point of the season.

Happy to see De Fabiani skiing into form. Hopefully that continues, and Pellegrino keeps improving as well. I think Cramer’s group is moving in the right direction, except perhaps Retivykh who lost any chance at qualifying for the Olympics with his semifinal exit today. Who would the Russians put in the sprint? My money is on Maltsev, as he can quality in sprints and skating at altitude works in his favor. At this point it makes little sense for Bolshunov to race the skate sprint in China. Even in very good form he won’t be able to beat Klæbo and he would have tough time making the podium. It would make much more sense to rest and focus on the other races.

Ustiugov for the skating sprint is a given and probably Terentev because he's a lock for the team sprint.

 

[Mayomaniac]

atm Italy is my pick for the 3rd medal in the team sprint, De Fa is really good in classic sprints and Pellegrino has improved as a distance skier.

 

[BullsFan22]

Ustiugov for the skating sprint is a given and probably Terentev because he's a lock for the team sprint.

Definitely Ustiugov. He’s Russia’s best chance at a medal in that race, men or women. Terentjev needs to get his tactics right if he wants to challenge in that race. He’s thrown away a couple more final appearances already this season. In Lillehammer he was blocked out, in Davos he had problems at the starting gate and then was skiing at the back of the semifinal heat and had too much ground to make up. In Dresden he skied way too relaxed and again didn’t have enough room in the final stretch. In Lenzerheide he was obstructed by Jay in the semifinal when it looked like he was gaining on everyone and today just a stupid mistake. I think in the three semifinal appearances that he made so far (except for Ruka, where he won) he should have made the final, completely throwing away valuable sprint points, where he clearly has the power to at least challenge Klæbo.

Where would you put him in the team sprint, first or second leg?

 

[BullsFan22]

atm Italy is my pick for the 3rd medal in the team sprint, De Fa is really good in classic sprints and Pellegrino has improved as a distance skier.

Swedes could also be dangerous, if Halfvarsson and Svensson continue to improve.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Call me a hater, but in my option, the team sprint is a pretty worthless medal and not nearly on the same Level as the other Events. The Nummer of competitive racers is simple so los in that Format, it is a joke. If at least nation could send to teams then there would be some competition.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Definitely Ustiugov. He’s Russia’s best chance at a medal in that race, men or women. Terentjev needs to get his tactics right if he wants to challenge in that race. He’s thrown away a couple more final appearances already this season. In Lillehammer he was blocked out, in Davos he had problems at the starting gate and then was skiing at the back of the semifinal heat and had too much ground to make up. In Dresden he skied way too relaxed and again didn’t have enough room in the final stretch. In Lenzerheide he was obstructed by Jay in the semifinal when it looked like he was gaining on everyone and today just a stupid mistake. I think in the three semifinal appearances that he made so far (except for Ruka, where he won) he should have made the final, completely throwing away valuable sprint points, where he clearly has the power to at least challenge Klæbo.

Where would you put him in the team sprint, first or second leg?

I'd put Terentev in the 2nd leg and let Bolshunov go hard from the start in all 3 laps to try to get rid of Valnes. Dropping Valnes is easier than dropping Klaebo and Terentev is the only one who can match Klaebo in a skating sprint.
For 15km classic I'd go Bolshunov, Chervotkin, Yaki and Semikov.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Call me a hater, but in my option, the team sprint is a pretty worthless medal and not nearly on the same Level as the other Events. The Nummer of competitive racers is simple so los in that Format, it is a joke. If at least nation could send to teams then there would be some competition.

It's a chance for other nations to get a medal, but I'm not gonna pretend that I actually care about the team sprint...

 

[BullsFan22]

I'd put Terentev in the 2nd leg and let Bolshunov go hard from the start in all 3 laps to try to get rid of Valnes. Dropping Valnes is easier than dropping Klaebo and Terentev is the only one who can match Klaebo in a skating sprint.
For 15km classic I'd go Bolshunov, Chervotkin, Yaki and Semikov.

You don’t trust Ustiugov to do a good enough job in the team sprint? Yes the other two are better at classic sprints, but will Terentjev’s stamina hold for 6 laps (I am including the semifinal heat of course)? If Bolshunov is healthy and fit, his stamina will definitely hold. I am curious about the selection for this race, also the skiathlon, because Ustiugov has a really good chance of making the team in that race as well. But he’ll probably need a very good sprint race for that. The WC’s after the tour will be interesting also. The Norwegians will not be sending their Olympians to at least one of those weekends, certainly won’t have them do both, they’ve rarely done that in recent times. Holund said he would skip everything and just focus on China. Krüger should be doing at least the Les Rousses weekend, and maybe someone like Nyenget or Amundsen or Røthe could race one of those weekends. Ustiugov for sure will be racing in France, it would be too long without a race, (even doing a marathon or an Alpen cup isn’t enough) before the Olympics. I can’t see Bolshunov skipping both weekends. The Russians had their last selection race today, and nothing has really changed, as Retivykh didn’t get into the final and therefore no podium. They may send their second unit to the January WC’s, guys like Larkov, Belov, Melnichenko, Ardashev, Poroshkin, etc. The only team that will be in full force in France will be….well…obviously the French.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Call me a hater, but in my option, the team sprint is a pretty worthless medal and not nearly on the same Level as the other Events. The Nummer of competitive racers is simple so los in that Format, it is a joke. If at least nation could send to teams then there would be some competition.

Can I get an amen?

Have been railing against this format for several years. Nothing called a 'team sprint' has ever improved any sport, and all that they do is serve to further marginalise older, better and more prestigious formats.

 

[Mayomaniac]

You don’t trust Ustiugov to do a good enough job in the team sprint? Yes the other two are better at classic sprints, but will Terentjev’s stamina hold for 6 laps (I am including the semifinal heat of course)? If Bolshunov is healthy and fit, his stamina will definitely hold. I am curious about the selection for this race, also the skiathlon, because Ustiugov has a really good chance of making the team in that race as well. But he’ll probably need a very good sprint race for that. The WC’s after the tour will be interesting also. The Norwegians will not be sending their Olympians to at least one of those weekends, certainly won’t have them do both, they’ve rarely done that in recent times. Holund said he would skip everything and just focus on China. Krüger should be doing at least the Les Rousses weekend, and maybe someone like Nyenget or Amundsen or Røthe could race one of those weekends. Ustiugov for sure will be racing in France, it would be too long without a race, (even doing a marathon or an Alpen cup isn’t enough) before the Olympics. I can’t see Bolshunov skipping both weekends. The Russians had their last selection race today, and nothing has really changed, as Retivykh didn’t get into the final and therefore no podium. They may send their second unit to the January WC’s, guys like Larkov, Belov, Melnichenko, Ardashev, Poroshkin, etc. The only team that will be in full force in France will be….well…obviously the French.

I'd send Ustiugov to the Skiathlon, Bolshunov and Spitsov should also race that one, no idea about who else I'd pick for that one.

 

[BullsFan22]

I'd send Ustiugov to the Skiathlon, Bolshunov and Spitsov should also race that one, no idea about who else I'd pick for that one.

Agreed. My guess would be Yakimushkin. Him or Maltsev. He’s usually better in classic than Maltsev and Maltsev is generally a better skate skier than Yakimushkin, but Yak is a bit more even in both techniques, so he likely gets the nod. The 15km Bolshunov, Chervotkin, Yakimushkin and Semikov. Relay, Bolshunov, Chervotkin/Semikov/Yakimushkin (maybe even Terentjev), Spitsov/Maltsev and Ustiugov. Lots of panic if they are all in good form. Bolshunov and Ustiugov have to be in the relay if they are fit. 50km, Bolshunov, Spitsov, Maltsev, Ustiugov/Yakimushkin/Chervotkin.

 

[search]

Karlsson has now decided to withdraw from the Tour de Ski

 

[Silhouette]

Karlsson has now decided to withdraw from the Tour de Ski

That was to be expected. A loss of 3 minutes is too much to recover from, so now the Tour loses one of its main competitors. I think that if the penalty had been 1 minute then that would have been enough.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Karlsson has now decided to withdraw from the Tour de Ski

It's probably better to forget about the Tour and to focus on the Olympics.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Agreed. My guess would be Yakimushkin. Him or Maltsev. He’s usually better in classic than Maltsev and Maltsev is generally a better skate skier than Yakimushkin, but Yak is a bit more even in both techniques, so he likely gets the nod. The 15km Bolshunov, Chervotkin, Yakimushkin and Semikov. Relay, Bolshunov, Chervotkin/Semikov/Yakimushkin (maybe even Terentjev), Spitsov/Maltsev and Ustiugov. Lots of panic if they are all in good form. Bolshunov and Ustiugov have to be in the relay if they are fit. 50km, Bolshunov, Spitsov, Maltsev, Ustiugov/Yakimushkin/Chervotkin.

I pretty much agree with all of your points, but Russian team selection usually involves some internal politics.
Terentjev did rather well in a hard 15km race at the Tour, he should have enough endurance for the team sprint.

 

[BullsFan22]

Karlsson has now decided to withdraw from the Tour de Ski

She still could have tried to win the last two stages to add a bit more to her WC point tally (which she currently leads), but I guess when you are in the 40’s because of a 3 minute penalty for aggressive skiing and a second yellow card, it affects you mentally. I’ve been reading about her pulling out regardless of today’s incident. She was saying how she was not sure if she’d pull out before the last stage or even before heading to Italy. Of course that’s all irrelevant now.

While Andersson is is 1:14 back, she could definitely make that time back in the last two stages. Diggins will need to limit the damage in the 10km classic, if she loses 30+ seconds to Nepryaeva, it’ll be tough. It’s all on Nepryaeva now, she’s traditionally raced very well in Val Di Fiemme, especially in the classic race. She won it last year, finished 6th in 2020, 2nd in 2019, and 8th in 2018, her debut at the TDS. My guess is that Andersson will try to go on the attack early on, as she similarly tried last season.

 

[Mayomaniac]

No idea if it has been reported outside of Austria and Switzerland, but Stadlober is also part of the Cramer training group, she's also getting into shape just as everyone else in that training group (De Fabiani has said that he didn't expect to be really good at the start of the season because of the heavy training load).
Now that her mother has become the fist female president of the Austrian skiing federation she should get more support.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

So far Winterton has announced they should replace the Alpe Cermis with a cross-country-cross at the base of it, and have 3 sprints instead of 2 in a six stage race, because it would be better if the sprinters think they can win the Tour overall because they often don't do the Alpe climb.

Because he's completely forgotten that the entire raison d'être of the Tour de Ski was to replicate cycling stage races, and no cycling fan should realistically wish for a race that can be won by a Marcel Kittel or a Mark Cavendish. Christ, Rik van Looy couldn't win the Vuelta when the biggest obstacle was the Puerto del Escudo and they gave a full minute's bonus for stage wins. The Alpe Cermis is a gimmick, yes, but as long as it's a unique gimmick I don't mind it. The calendar is too sprinter-biased anyway, having something to keep proper distance skiers in the mix for the overall globe is crucial.

It doesn't half feel like the Tour is replicating the current criticisms of cycling stage races though - believing a close race is automatically a good race, so minimising individual start mileage, and relying everything on the finale.

Edit: "the good news is, Jess Diggins is still in the front group, the bad news is, she hasn't been able to drop Nepryaeva or Ebba Andersson"... it's distance classic, you would expect what has now happened, which is that those two, who are better in classic, are more likely to drop Diggins than vice versa. Especially as Andersson needs to gain time so has to go hard. about 2/3 of the commentary has been about Diggins thus far but she really looks like she's struggling this time. Waiting for the skis to get the blame.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Stadlober has by far the worst Skis in the front group, no grip uphill.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Great finish by Natasha, she looked very strong and she knew Ebba had to break her, and she needed time over Pärmäkoski at the top of Zorzi, due to the Finns' better gliding skis. But that was a big move there.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Hennig just looks so smooth on the classic skis, but the final Zorzi climb just favours the better sprinters.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Hennig just looks so smooth on the classic skis, but the final Zorzi climb just favours the better sprinters.

Chiesa + Pojer into the finish would be ideal, hope they do that for 2026 but doubt it. They would probably need the biathlon to also be at VDF for that, as it would then render Zorzi off limits to the XC as they'd be going backwards into the biathlon stadium that way. However, doing the biathlon in VDF would be a complete fiasco as you'd have to go through both stadium sections before the range, making it a very, very easy range and also have the fans miles away from the range, where with an Olympics happening in Central Europe you would expect to see biathlon be one of the biggest fan draws of the entire Olympics, so it makes sense they're doing it in Antholz, as it's a specialised biathlon venue.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Stadlober is now 8th overall, but only 40sec behind the 4th place. In this kind of shape she should do well on the final climb.
Neprayaeva should loose time to Anderson on the final climb, she has a decent gap, but last year she lost 1:39 to her and she has never been that great on the final climb.