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Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

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Ebba Andersson, I owe you a drink.

Jess' fall is being confirmed as the reason she didn't win (or rather assumed by the commentators of course, it would have been close without it but based on times at the time-checks Ebba would still have taken it by a very narrow margin - would have been 1-2 seconds in it, so any impact on Diggins' skiing that it would have had will likely have made the difference).

well, she has a chance to strike back today ;). This 7.5k hybrid-distance seems to be a bit of an issue for Sweden at least, ending up with Moa Ilar (formerly Olsson - hadn't noticed her getting married) in 3rd.

edit: Svahn decided not to start, by the way, so Sweden II won't finish.
 
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well, she has a chance to strike back today ;). This 7.5k hybrid-distance seems to be a bit of an issue for Sweden at least, ending up with Moa Ilar (formerly Olsson - hadn't noticed her getting married) in 3rd.

edit: Svahn decided not to start, by the way, so Sweden II won't finish.
She's going to need a really strong leg, though I don't rule it out with her on the third leg against some other teams' weaker skate leg (you would very much expect her to beat Fink, Ilar and Hagström pretty handily, Østberg is the question mark), but the US' team's technical deficit in classic technique seems to still be an issue in these relays, they've in recent years clung on to stay in contact until the skate legs. But at the same time they've handed over to Diggins ahead of Finland who have traditionally been the opposite and will probably have to start putting sprinters on the skate legs when Kyllönen retires.
 
the US' team's technical deficit in classic technique seems to still be an issue in these relays, they've in recent years clung on to stay in contact until the skate legs.

you were right, yep, Swirbul getting dropped probably made the difference, so Ilar leaving the door wide open was no help for them.

In hindsight, Sweden should probably have lined up Dahlqvist on position 1 (and Ribom in 3rd). She had no problems with the distance at all.
 
He was probably too busy telling them that 7,5km per leg is too long to remember such trivialities.

He might literally be the most incompetent, overpromoted man in the sport.
Yeah, all the good coaches do the actual work and everytime a big event nears that gloryhog shows up at the races to steal the spotlight. Nothi g more than a gloryfied team mascot...

Dapra actually has an important family lineage. Is mother is a niece of the Italian skiing legend Franco Nones. Nones was the first guy to win a gold medal who wasn't from Scandinavia or the Soviet Union, an iconic figurevin the sport's history.

Andersen looks like prime Berzin gone XC skier.
 
And Dapra isn't even the best guy that they could put in that 3rd leg. 20 year old Elia Barp has already beaten him in the skating race at the NC and an in shape Graz (totally fatigued this weekend because of the heavy pre-WC training block) are imo better. Italy has been missing a guy for the 3rd leg since Clara, but things are improving.
 
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Looking at the best possible lineups for each team, Sweden should be favorites with Ribom/Dahlqvist, Karlsson, Andersson and Sundling. Norway with H, Weng, L/T Weng, Kalvå/Theodorsen, Østberg/Fossesholm (have no idea how good Fossesholm will actually be, she’s raced sparingly and when she’s races she hasn’t been all the impressive), Finland is full of classic skiers, and they will likely need to put either (or maybe both) Kerttu or Krista on one of the skate legs and Matintalo or Kyllönen on the classic legs, plus Joenssu as the likely sprinter. The Germans have a balanced team that should fight for the medals if not be locked in for one, Gimmler who’s had a career season so far, Hennig, Krehl and Carl. The other options are Sauerbrey (who was part of the silver medal team from the Olympics last year), Hoffman and Lohmann who’ve performed very well at u23’s in Canada this week. The Americans will always struggle in classic, until they improve their techniques, no matter who they put in those opening two legs. They put all their top skiers in the relay today, nobody else did that and it was good enough for a medal. Problem is other teams will have their top athletes in the relays in Planica and also there’s a pretty good chance it will be warm and slushy there, which doesn’t suit them at all. They could even put Brennan and Diggins in the first two legs and hope they are with leaders.

FIS really don’t know what they are doing, 4x7.5km here but 4x5 at the worlds. Makes no sense.
 
Looking at the best possible lineups for each team, Sweden should be favorites with Ribom/Dahlqvist, Karlsson, Andersson and Sundling. Norway with H, Weng, L/T Weng, Kalvå/Theodorsen, Østberg/Fossesholm (have no idea how good Fossesholm will actually be, she’s raced sparingly and when she’s races she hasn’t been all the impressive), Finland is full of classic skiers, and they will likely need to put either (or maybe both) Kerttu or Krista on one of the skate legs and Matintalo or Kyllönen on the classic legs, plus Joenssu as the likely sprinter. The Germans have a balanced team that should fight for the medals if not be locked in for one, Gimmler who’s had a career season so far, Hennig, Krehl and Carl. The other options are Sauerbrey (who was part of the silver medal team from the Olympics last year), Hoffman and Lohmann who’ve performed very well at u23’s in Canada this week. The Americans will always struggle in classic, until they improve their techniques, no matter who they put in those opening two legs. They put all their top skiers in the relay today, nobody else did that and it was good enough for a medal. Problem is other teams will have their top athletes in the relays in Planica and also there’s a pretty good chance it will be warm and slushy there, which doesn’t suit them at all. They could even put Brennan and Diggins in the first two legs and hope they are with leaders.

FIS really don’t know what they are doing, 4x7.5km here but 4x5 at the worlds. Makes no sense.
While that makes sense to some extent, I really don't see them 'wasting' Jess on a classic leg. Best to go the way they're going (maybe draft Laukli in) but the fact two legs are in classic and every single US skier bar none is better in skate will always be an issue for them in the same way as Finland basically just fills their skate legs with sprinters and hopes for the best, because all their skiers are better at classic. I don't think Germany will use Hofmann even if she might be well suited to it, Lohmann is perhaps more likely as she has more experience at the WC level.
 
While that makes sense to some extent, I really don't see them 'wasting' Jess on a classic leg. Best to go the way they're going (maybe draft Laukli in) but the fact two legs are in classic and every single US skier bar none is better in skate will always be an issue for them in the same way as Finland basically just fills their skate legs with sprinters and hopes for the best, because all their skiers are better at classic. I don't think Germany will use Hofmann even if she might be well suited to it, Lohmann is perhaps more likely as she has more experience at the WC level.

The thing is, Swirbul had a top 20 in Les Rousses last week and was 28th or 29th yesterday, and she’s definitely a better skate skier. She’s skied the classic scramble in every relay she’s taken part in, and she’s likely gonna stay in that spot unless her form drops enough to warrant a change of for health reasons. Not sure Laukli or McCabe will be good enough this season to make the relay team in Planica. They were in Whistler to try and get some medals, but it didn’t work. They also race on the western collegiate circuit and Laukli also did the entire tour de ski, which tells me she’s over raced. There’s almost 3 weeks between now and Planica, so things could look differently if people have picked the right amount of races or haven’t. Plus as I mentioned earlier, the snow conditions will likely play a part. That will obviously not suit the Americans, even lighter skiers like Laukli and McCabe.

In any case, today they were in the medals because the Germans made a ridiculous mistake. I think it’s a bit harsh to get a straight dq but that’s how the rules have been for a while. Assuming that everyone puts their top skiers in the relay, and there are no illnesses or disqualifications/relegations, I think the US will find it tough to get into the top 3. The Germans are better than they were two years ago at home and if the Finns can get the right quarter and order, they will beat the Americans. Niskanen didn’t race in Germany because of that leg injury sustained in Falun. Krista should be better than she is now. Matintalo had a surprisingly poor leg today, so hopefully she’s gonna get better.

The Swiss were good for more than half of the world championship and even the Olympics last year. Van Der Graaff has since retired, but they have a good amount of promising young talent as seen at Whistler and even the last 3 seasons, so maybe they’ll be in the mix, at least for a bit.

The Russians made the relay happen last season, no doubt they’d be fighting for the title, not just a top 3, but obviously we won’t see that.

There were inquiries about the possibility of having Bolshunov racing in Planica as he’s the defending skiathlon champion, if not the whole team racing, but FIS apparently said that their next meetings in the spring will discuss that, so the Russians, predictably, won’t be in Slovenia.
 
The thing is, Swirbul had a top 20 in Les Rousses last week and was 28th or 29th yesterday, and she’s definitely a better skate skier. She’s skied the classic scramble in every relay she’s taken part in, and she’s likely gonna stay in that spot unless her form drops enough to warrant a change of for health reasons. Not sure Laukli or McCabe will be good enough this season to make the relay team in Planica. They were in Whistler to try and get some medals, but it didn’t work. They also race on the western collegiate circuit and Laukli also did the entire tour de ski, which tells me she’s over raced. There’s almost 3 weeks between now and Planica, so things could look differently if people have picked the right amount of races or haven’t. Plus as I mentioned earlier, the snow conditions will likely play a part. That will obviously not suit the Americans, even lighter skiers like Laukli and McCabe.

In any case, today they were in the medals because the Germans made a ridiculous mistake. I think it’s a bit harsh to get a straight dq but that’s how the rules have been for a while. Assuming that everyone puts their top skiers in the relay, and there are no illnesses or disqualifications/relegations, I think the US will find it tough to get into the top 3. The Germans are better than they were two years ago at home and if the Finns can get the right quarter and order, they will beat the Americans. Niskanen didn’t race in Germany because of that leg injury sustained in Falun. Krista should be better than she is now. Matintalo had a surprisingly poor leg today, so hopefully she’s gonna get better.

The Swiss were good for more than half of the world championship and even the Olympics last year. Van Der Graaff has since retired, but they have a good amount of promising young talent as seen at Whistler and even the last 3 seasons, so maybe they’ll be in the mix, at least for a bit.

The Russians made the relay happen last season, no doubt they’d be fighting for the title, not just a top 3, but obviously we won’t see that.

There were inquiries about the possibility of having Bolshunov racing in Planica as he’s the defending skiathlon champion, if not the whole team racing, but FIS apparently said that their next meetings in the spring will discuss that, so the Russians, predictably, won’t be in Slovenia.
I mean, the Americans overracing is a totally typical thing, Cologna talked about it today and how Harvey also often raced every race. They spend the whole season away from home, so they mindset is that you might as well race every race.
I think some breaks from racing and training blocks at altitude would be better for them, not to mention having coaches who actually try to work with the athletes on their technique (someone like Odgen would benefit a ton of that on the men's side).

On the men's side it's a bit depressing to see that Germany still has to have Moch in a classic leg because the lack classic skiers. Can't they just ask Bing to come back for Planica? He just finished 8th in the Marcialonga, I think he'd do just fine, even if his training has been really centered around double poling.
 
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you were right, yep, Swirbul getting dropped probably made the difference, so Ilar leaving the door wide open was no help for them.

In hindsight, Sweden should probably have lined up Dahlqvist on position 1 (and Ribom in 3rd). She had no problems with the distance at all.
The Swedes were clearly testing Dahlqvist v Ribom for leg 1 in Planica...Svahn thought she'd be given a chance but when she saw the makeup of the team she became 'sick'
 
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Too much is made about Americans in classic skiing, the real issue is their inability to structure a ski race.

The team gets too pumped with face paint, those stupid relay socks and ends up skiing like juniors. They were 13 seconds behind after the first leg and ended up losing at least 13 more seconds with Brennan/Diggins and Kern...that's not good enough. Brennan and Diggins both did their favourite trick of going far too hard in the first 1km and paying the price the rest of the leg. Why not take your time, structure your leg and pace the race instead of trying to be the hero? Diggins has one medal-winning split in the relay in February, in over a decade of Championships, which is woeful for someone of her ability skiing a 5k skate....compare and contrast the Germans who ALWAYS perform above themselves in a relay.

Kern - Brennan - Swirlburl and Diggins is a stronger team(on paper) than any that Germany can send out yet Germany always handles the Americans easily.

I think the Norway team(for girls) will be the team in Planica, TUW is too far away to turn her shape around.
 
Too much is made about Americans in classic skiing, the real issue is their inability to structure a ski race.

The team gets too pumped with face paint, those stupid relay socks and ends up skiing like juniors. They were 13 seconds behind after the first leg and ended up losing at least 13 more seconds with Brennan/Diggins and Kern...that's not good enough. Brennan and Diggins both did their favourite trick of going far too hard in the first 1km and paying the price the rest of the leg. Why not take your time, structure your leg and pace the race instead of trying to be the hero? Diggins has one medal-winning split in the relay in February, in over a decade of Championships, which is woeful for someone of her ability skiing a 5k skate....compare and contrast the Germans who ALWAYS perform above themselves in a relay.

Kern - Brennan - Swirlburl and Diggins is a stronger team(on paper) than any that Germany can send out yet Germany always handles the Americans easily.

I think the Norway team(for girls) will be the team in Planica, TUW is too far away to turn her shape around.

Yeah, I mean the Americans haven’t won a medal in a regular relay at the world championships or Olympics for either men or women. Diggins only has one individual medal from world championships, and that was in the weather affected 10km skate in Falun 2015, had the conditions been the same for everyone, she wouldn’t have been that high.

They haven’t had a medal at a world championships since 2017. That l think will change. No Johaug and no Russians, that will give Diggins a real opportunity in every distance race apart from the 30km classic.

I agree on the relay, the Americans spend too much on ‘sparkles,’ sox and whatever else they do. I disagree on their classic skiing though. Swirbul lost 25 seconds last year in Beijing, but all of them similar amount of time, finishing 1:30 behind the Russians. Diggins was 44 seconds behind Sundling who had the fastest anchor time, and 35 behind Stepanova, who had the 2nd fastest.

In 2021, Swirbul lost only 14 seconds, but they were never able to recover that. Bjornsen (who retired after 2021), lost another 14, 15 seconds and Brennan lost 45 second to Johaug, 30 to Sorina and also lost time to Fink and Roponen.

If you lose touch already in the first leg, it’s difficult to get it back, as the women race hard from the gun, they don’t play tactical games much.

I don’t know the exact courses they’ll use in Planica, but if they use the same ones from January 2018, when they last had distance races there, then it should be hard enough to create good gaps. It’s not the most brutal course, but it’s tough, long gradual climbs and one or two nasty downhill corners.

I’ve skied there in December, January, and February, and the best the conditions were was late January/Early February, so basically middle of winter. They’ve had some good snow this season, by the looks of it, but what’s gonna happen in 3, 4 weeks?
 
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Yeah, I mean the Americans haven’t won a medal in a regular relay at the world championships or Olympics for either men or women. Diggins only has one individual medal from world championships, and that was in the weather affected 10km skate in Falun 2015, had the conditions been the same for everyone, she wouldn’t have been that high.

They haven’t had a medal at a world championships since 2017. That l think will change. No Johaug and no Russians, that will give Diggins a real opportunity in every distance race apart from the 30km classic.

I agree on the relay, the Americans spend too much on ‘sparkles,’ sox and whatever else they do. I disagree on their classic skiing though. Swirbul lost 25 seconds last year in Beijing, but all of them similar amount of time, finishing 1:30 behind the Russians. Diggins was 44 seconds behind Sundling who had the fastest anchor time, and 35 behind Stepanova, who had the 2nd fastest.

In 2021, Swirbul lost only 14 seconds, but they were never able to recover that. Bjornsen (who retired after 2021), lost another 14, 15 seconds and Brennan lost 45 second to Johaug, 30 to Sorina and also lost time to Fink and Roponen.

If you lose touch already in the first leg, it’s difficult to get it back, as the women race hard from the gun, they don’t play tactical games much.

I don’t know the exact courses they’ll use in Planica, but if they use the same ones from January 2018, when they last had distance races there, then it should be hard enough to create good gaps. It’s not the most brutal course, but it’s tough, long gradual climbs and one or two nasty downhill corners.

I’ve skied there in December, January, and February, and the best the conditions were was late January/Early February, so basically middle of winter. They’ve had some good snow this season, by the looks of it, but what’s gonna happen in 3, 4 weeks?

In 2021, Swirbul tagged off in an around the medals with Germany and Finland. Bjornsen had a wonderful opportunity to fall in behind Henning and let her do the work but no being an American she has to get her own lane and match Henning stride for stride. Brennan is tagged off in medal position, with Diggins to follow, at the point it's pretty obvious to Germany/Finland that they need to get rid of the USA not the other way around but no Rosie charged to the front trying to be the hero(with poor skis) and ended up blowing up. Diggins having seen this leg did exactly the same tactic and gave Finland the only possible option of winning a medal, hanging behind and winning the sprint.

Fast forward to the Olympics, Swirlbul tags Brennan off ahead of Norway and level with Switzerland(not far off the medals). The obvious tactic was to exercise patience and let Johaug do the work but no Rosie being Rosie once again wanted to be the hero, closed the gap on Andersson in no time....and then blew up at the end of the leg whilst Faehndrich understood the situation, tucked in being Johaug and beat Brennan on the leg despite being the weaker skier.

American skiers are obsessed with skiing in their own lane in classic(watch this in mass starts), they simply will not learn to try and ski more efficiently in the pack. The best relay skiers understand a slow first lap and a hard second lap...Americans have the opposite strategy.

Germany now how to ski relays and Americans don't(Same coaches for the decade = same outcome.)
 

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