Off season. We need some Giro 2011 discussion.

[profff]

in pure climbing talent no one is as talented as soler, only henao is in his league, duarte and betancourt certainly not, theyt aren't even pure climbers. duarte has always been an itt guy (and great downhiller) and rides the heavy gears like rujano, betancourt is not as explosive as soler

I appreciate a lot your comment because i know you have a deep knowledge of south american cyclists.
i believe you are overrating mauricio soler, that for sure is a very good climber( polka dot at TdF!). his reduced skills in conducting the bikes and his poor tactical vision are great limits in terms of GC in a grand tour.
i was very impressed by betancourt performances in giro bio and I rate him superior , ar least in perspective, to soler.

Ryo, you place duarte in 3rd place in your giri pronostique . too me he looks very complete rider, great downhill skills, good itt but especially very good also uphill.
henao is probably the best colombian of this generation, so i am disappointed that he decided to stay one year more in orgullo.

best thing for liquigas and for szmyd will be make him skip the giro and do dauphinee for himself and tour for ivan basso.

 

[Kvinto]

biggest problem for vincenzo will be 3 hard stages in a row in last week.
he showed he can climb decently in steep slopes, if he does not try to follow the sudden change of rhythm by the pure climber.
if he follows his pace he is not that bad and he has kept improving in that.
even in training , as stated by liquigas coach paolo slongo, he suffers the third day of consecutive hard work.the so called "tripletta"
recover will be very important in this year giro.
i am not sure that michele scarponi is better than vincenzo the squalo in that aspect. in the past, before the 2010 giro, he has never performed well in a 3 week GT

These 3 stages are on the second week Stage 13 Grossglockner Stage 14: Monte Zoncolan and Stage 15: Gardeccia-Val di Fassa Besides, I think recovery is Nibali's strong ability and these triplet stages are very hard to every rider, recovery first of all and it a bit compensate his non-perfect climbing.
But if we consider Scarponi, Nibali, Ricco and Anton as the main favourites, then Scarponi IMO is most balanced of them. Strong climber, good team, tolerable tt (better than Ricco and Anton). I can't say that he has no good GT results before 2010. Don't forget, he was suspended in 2008 and rode for Simoni in 2009 (winning 2 Giro stages). Looking into his GT palmares: 2002 - 18th Giro, 2003 - 16th Giro, 13th Vuelta, 2004 - 32 TDF, 2005 - 47th Giro. It's not nothing.
By the way when season 2010 has started I read some Scarponi's interview. When he was asked what did he improve in his ride, he told - definitely tt

 

[profff]

These 3 stages are on the second week Stage 13 Grossglockner Stage 14: Monte Zoncolan and Stage 15: Gardeccia-Val di Fassa Besides, I think recovery is Nibali's strong ability and these triplet stages are very hard to every rider, recovery first of all and it a bit compensate his non-perfect climbing.
But if we consider Scarponi, Nibali, Ricco and Anton as the main favourites, then Scarponi IMO is most balanced of them. Strong climber, good team, tolerable tt (better than Ricco and Anton). I can't say that he has no good GT results before 2010. Don't forget, he was suspended in 2008 and rode for Simoni in 2009 (winning 2 Giro stages). Looking into his GT palmares: 2002 - 18th Giro, 2003 - 16th Giro, 13th Vuelta, 2004 - 32 TDF, 2005 - 47th Giro. It's not nothing.
By the way when season 2010 has started I read some Scarponi's interview. When he was asked what did he improve in his ride, he told - definitely tt

the GT results you cited were all considered deceiving at that timse, as michele was expected to be a contender for the top places . every time he had a couple of bad days, spoiling his chances..2010 was the first time he rode well for 3 weeks.
last year he rode his best GT ever, being the leader of a good time.nevertheless he was beaten by nibali, which was running for basso.

nibali learnt a lot from his win in the vuelta and running with basso was also good for him
do not forget that his improvement in GTs is an ongoing process: he was 7th in 2009 TDF. i think that this process is continuing and that there is nothing that makes you improve more than winning, in terms of faith, self-esteem and management of the team.

 

[Kvinto]

the GT results you cited were all considered deceiving at that timse, as michele was expected to be a contender for the top places . every time he had a couple of bad days, spoiling his chances..2010 was the first time he rode well for 3 weeks.
last year he rode his best GT ever, being the leader of a good time.nevertheless he was beaten by nibali, which was running for basso.

nibali learnt a lot from his win in the vuelta and running with basso was also good for him
do not forget that his improvement in GTs is an ongoing process: he was 7th in 2009 TDF. i think that this process is continuing and that there is nothing that makes you improve more than winning, in terms of faith, self-esteem and management of the team.

These results showed his potential by that time and that he didn't come from nowhere (like Wiggins) but materialized his potential only till 30 years of age, approving himself a strong GT rider. It's a natural process, it's normal when young rider who's expected to reach some good GT result has the bad days and loses. Yes, Nibali is still improving and he hasn't reached his best yet but if he'll be able to win Giro 2011 we'll have to change our attitude to him. He'll become the great climbing specialist then

 

[The Hitch]

the GT results you cited were all considered deceiving at that timse, as michele was expected to be a contender for the top places . every time he had a couple of bad days, spoiling his chances..2010 was the first time he rode well for 3 weeks.
last year he rode his best GT ever, being the leader of a good time.nevertheless he was beaten by nibali, which was running for basso.

nibali learnt a lot from his win in the vuelta and running with basso was also good for him
do not forget that his improvement in GTs is an ongoing process: he was 7th in 2009 TDF. i think that this process is continuing and that there is nothing that makes you improve more than winning, in terms of faith, self-esteem and management of the team.

Winning a gt wont make Nibali climb better

But Nibali riding for Basso helped him imo.

1 the strenght of the team gave him the 1 minute 30 head start on Scarponi in the ttt.
2 He may have lost a bit of time on Strade Bianchi but on the Grappa and Mortirolo he stayed comfortably with the Basso crowd. You think if the group was Evans Scarponi Nibali and no basso ( he would have had a 1 minute lead over them at that stage) they would have just ridden him to a Giro victory


No. they would have attacked, tried things, taken advantage of the fact that they are stronger climbers.

And this is what they will do next year. Nibali is going to probably have an adavantage of 30 seconds + on gc ranking from the ttt. I dont see Scarponi riding comfortably with Nibali and giving him the pink, if Basso isnt there. But who will be there is Ricco, and he sure as hell wont just sit around smiling at Nibali.

 

[profff]

These 3 stages are on the second week Stage 13 Grossglockner Stage 14: Monte Zoncolan and Stage 15: Gardeccia-Val di Fassa Besides, I think recovery is Nibali's strong ability and these triplet stages are very hard to every rider, recovery first of all and it a bit compensate his non-perfect climbing.
But if we consider Scarponi, Nibali, Ricco and Anton as the main favourites, then Scarponi IMO is most balanced of them. Strong climber, good team, tolerable tt (better than Ricco and Anton). I can't say that he has no good GT results before 2010. Don't forget, he was suspended in 2008 and rode for Simoni in 2009 (winning 2 Giro stages). Looking into his GT palmares: 2002 - 18th Giro, 2003 - 16th Giro, 13th Vuelta, 2004 - 32 TDF, 2005 - 47th Giro. It's not nothing.
By the way when season 2010 has started I read some Scarponi's interview. When he was asked what did he improve in his ride, he told - definitely tt

These results showed his potential by that time and that he didn't come from nowhere (like Wiggins) but materialized his potential only till 30 years of age, approving himself a strong GT rider. It's a natural process, it's normal when young rider who's expected to reach some good GT result has the bad days and loses. Yes, Nibali is still improving and he hasn't reached his best yet but if he'll be able to win Giro 2011 we'll have to change our attitude to him. He'll become the great climbing specialist then

i do not fully agree on the fact that materializing potential as gt contender only till 30 years of age it is normal.
in the past riders like gimondi and mercks won their first GTs in the early 20.
today , riders like A Schleck, even contador show their potential as gt contender in the early 20.

only after armstrong we were forced to think that to win a gt you need to be older than 27..

though it is true that resistence and recover improve with age and experience plays a role in winning a gt, i do not think that michele in his early years proved to be strong on long climbs and in multiple efforts, as a gt contender should be.

if you look at his palmares in strong climbs in early years his best result in was an 11th place in zoncolan stage in 2003.
in other giro or tour he never placed in the first 5 in a mountain top finish stage, especially with multiple climbs.
he performed well in the vuelta 2005 as a heras helper with liberty seguros, but also there his best finish was 8th in a mountain stage.
he performed very well though in races like LBL, FW, AGR. hilly classics, there he showed great potential, but, to me , that are different climbs from never ending finestre, fedaia, giau...
i hope that michele scarponi will do well in this year giro , but i think you are overrating his potential as gt rider.
he has to prove that he can repeat a performance like last year.

 

[profff]

i do not fully agree on the fact that materializing potential as gt contender only till 30 years of age it is normal.
in the past riders like gimondi and mercks won their first GTs in the early 20.
today , riders like A Schleck, even contador show their potential as gt contender in the early 20.

only after armstrong we were forced to think that to win a gt you need to be older than 27..

though it is true that resistence and recover improve with age and experience plays a role in winning a gt, i do not think that michele in his early years proved to be strong on long climbs and in multiple efforts, as a gt contender should be.

if you look at his palmares in strong climbs in early years his best result in was an 11th place in zoncolan stage in 2003.
in other giro or tour he never placed in the first 5 in a mountain top finish stage, especially with multiple climbs.
he performed well in the vuelta 2005 as a heras helper with liberty seguros, but also there his best finish was 8th in a mountain stage.
he performed very well though in races like LBL, FW, AGR. hilly classics, there he showed great potential, but, to me , that are different climbs from never ending finestre, fedaia, giau...
i hope that michele scarponi will do well in this year giro , but i think you are overrating his potential as gt rider.
he has to prove that he can repeat a performance like last year.

Winning a gt wont make Nibali climb better

But Nibali riding for Basso helped him imo.

1 the strenght of the team gave him the 1 minute 30 head start on Scarponi in the ttt.
2 He may have lost a bit of time on Strade Bianchi but on the Grappa and Mortirolo he stayed comfortably with the Basso crowd. You think if the group was Evans Scarponi Nibali and no basso ( he would have had a 1 minute lead over them at that stage) they would have just ridden him to a Giro victory


No. they would have attacked, tried things, taken advantage of the fact that they are stronger climbers.

And this is what they will do next year. Nibali is going to probably have an adavantage of 30 seconds + on gc ranking from the ttt. I dont see Scarponi riding comfortably with Nibali and giving him the pink, if Basso isnt there. But who will be there is Ricco, and he sure as hell wont just sit around smiling at Nibali.

are you sure that scarponi's climbing in by far better than nibali's in long hills.
scarponi is more explosive and stronger on shorter hill, like the classic ones.
in gt i am not sure.

ricco-nibali: they are great rivals and they cannot stand each other.
nibali spoke loud against ricco doping.
if you remember nibali even tried to follow ricco's attack on the aspin ...
things now have changed and that will be a real duel.
with no prisoners.

 

[monopost]

Kreuziger should be on the list, he is a little bit underestimated, while for example Nibali is overrated. If you consider the rest of the discussing riders, then Kreuziger surely must be there. He's not number one to win, but he can make it.

 

[El Pistolero]

are you sure that scarponi's climbing in by far better than nibali's in long hills.
scarponi is more explosive and stronger on shorter hill, like the classic ones.
in gt i am not sure.

ricco-nibali: they are great rivals and they cannot stand each other.
nibali spoke loud against ricco doping.
if you remember nibali even tried to follow ricco's attack on the aspin ...
things now have changed and that will be a real duel.
with no prisoners.

And yet he's best friends with Mr. Alien...

 

[Kvinto]

Winning a gt wont make Nibali climb better

Winning Giro would demonstrate he has become a better climber

i do not fully agree on the fact that materializing potential as gt contender only till 30 years of age it is normal...

I think different riders materialize their potential in different age and no matter would you do it in 23 or 32, both ways are normal. Am I overrating Michelle Scarponi? We have to wait and see, it's the only solution . I'm sure that he'll be at least on the podium at next year's Giro but I also know that I can be mistaken

 

[profff]

And yet he's best friends with Mr. Alien...

in italy , nibali always played the role of the good clean polite guy.
ricco since his U23 years has been playing the bad guy, the one on the dark side.

true or not, it has been like that in tifosi and media eyes.
now , ricco, going with sassi is trying to change his image.

nibali has always strongly denied the allegations of training with michele ferrari.
he said he was sueing fanini for reporting to the press that he was training with ferrari near st .moritz.

 

[theyoungest]

1 Alberto Contador (ESP) Astana 89h 56' 49"
2 Riccardo Riccò (ITA) Saunier Duval-Scott + 1' 57"
3 Marzio Bruseghin (ITA) Lampre + 2' 54"
4 Franco Pellizotti (ITA) Liquigas + 2' 56"
5 Denis Menchov (RUS) Rabobank + 3' 37"
6 Emanuele Sella (ITA) CSF Group-Navigare + 4' 31"
7 Jurgen Van Den Broeck (BEL) Silence-Lotto + 6' 30"
8 Danilo Di Luca (ITA) LPR Brakes-Ballan + 7' 15"
9 Domenico Pozzovivo (ITA) CSF Group-Navigare + 7' 53"
10 Gilberto Simoni (ITA) Diquigiovanni-Androni + 11' 03"



1 Carlos Sastre (ESP) Team CSC Saxo Bank 87h 52' 52"
2 Cadel Evans (AUS) Silence-Lotto + 58"
3 None[2]
4 Denis Menchov (RUS) Rabobank + 2' 10"
5 Christian Vandevelde (USA) Garmin-Chipotle-H30 + 3' 05"
6 Fränk Schleck (LUX) Team CSC Saxo Bank + 4' 28"
7 Samuel Sánchez (ESP) Euskaltel-Euskadi + 6' 25"
8 Kim Kirchen (LUX) Team Columbia + 6' 55"
9 Alejandro Valverde (ESP) Caisse d'Epargne + 7' 12"
10 Tadej Valjavec (SLO) Ag2r-La Mondiale + 9' 05"

Like I said, apart from Contador, the Giro really didn't have a stronger field than the Tour. Showing the top-10 only proves my point. Menchov in build-up to the Tour even got 5th, need I say more?

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

1. Nibali
2. Ricco
3. DiLuca
But not surprised if Danilo surprises me.

 

[happychappy]

One of the dopers probably.

 

[Wiggins_fan]

One of the dopers probably.

You can't win the giro only on water

 

[El Pistolero]

Like I said, apart from Contador, the Giro really didn't have a stronger field than the Tour. Showing the top-10 only proves my point. Menchov in build-up to the Tour even got 5th, need I say more?

The Tour had a weak field with a bunch of nobodies placing top 10. Even Frank Schleck was leading the Tour till the last mountain stage. Weak. He wouldn't be leading anything during that year's Giro.

Ricardo Ricco had already won 2 stages during that Tour after a very though Giro. Sure he was packed with Cera during both, but do I need to say more?

 

[The Hitch]

snip

Good to see "Thee Chisa" has decided to use a different username this time

 

[theyoungest]

The Tour had a weak field with a bunch of nobodies placing top 10. Even Frank Schleck was leading the Tour till the last mountain stage. Weak.

Yes, Marzio Bruseghin and Franco Pellizotti are far superior to Cadel Evans and Carlos Sastre, in the prime of their respective careers

 

[El Pistolero]

Yes, Marzio Bruseghin and Franco Pellizotti are far superior to Cadel Evans and Carlos Sastre, in the prime of their respective careers

Contador and Ricco are.

And Pellizotti is a better climber than both of them(although Sastre does have the talent of holding form for a very long time). I only have to laugh that you need to use Cadel Evans as evidence of a strong Tour field.

 

[The Hitch]

Contador and Ricco are.

And Pellizotti is a better climber than both of them. I only have to laugh that you need to use Cadel Evans as evidence of a strong Tour field.

Pellizoti is not a better climber than Carlos Sastre. Anyone who can win the Grandady of them all without being a tter must be a good climber. He has won on Alpe d huez ffs.

And you shouldnt mock Cuddles as much as you do. He a former Champion of the WORLD. He is a 2 time runner up in the grandady of them all. Just before the Giro he won the climbers classic showdown on the Muur.

Every single one of those achievments are bigger than Francos palmares to date.

Then theres Basso and Nibali and and Vinokourov at this years Giro. All Grand Tour WINNERS. 3 more in Garzeli Gibo(ok he was having a laugh) and Cunego, and a heavy hitter in Scarponi.

Sorry, this doesnt really compare to the 08 field. Youngest is right here.

 

[El Pistolero]

Pellizoti is not a better climber than Carlos Sastre. Anyone who can win the Grandady of them all without being a tter must be a good climber. He has won on Alpe d huez ffs.

And you shouldnt mock Cuddles as much as you do. He a former Champion of the WORLD. He is a 2 time runner up in the grandady of them all. Just before the Giro he won the climbers classic showdown on the Muur.

Every single one of those achievments are bigger than Francos palmares to date.

Then theres Basso and Nibali and and Vinokourov at this years Giro. All Grand Tour WINNERS. 3 more in Garzeli Gibo(ok he was having a laugh) and Cunego, and a heavy hitter in Scarponi.

Sorry, this doesnt really compare to the 08 field. Youngest is right here.

Palmares doesn't change the fact that Pellizotti is a better climber than Cadel Evans. I don't know what Basso, Nibali and Vinokourov have to do with the '08 Giro/Tour.

Let's compare the top 10 of both.

Giro
1. Contador

Tour
1. Sastre

= Contador >>>> Sastre

Giro
2. Ricco

Tour
2. Cadel Evans

= Ricco > Cadel Evans

Giro
3. Mario

Tour
3. Kohl

= Mario > Kohl(cause Kohl achieved nothing outside that Tour)

Giro
4. Pellizotti

Tour
4. Menchov

= Menchov > Pelli

Giro
5. Menchov

Tour
5. Christian Vandevelde

= Menchov > Vandevelde

Giro
6. Sella

Tour
6. Frank Schleck

= In 2008 Sella was more impressive.

Giro
7. Jurgen

Tour
7. Samu

= Samu > Jurgen

Giro
8. Di Luca

Tour
8. Kim Kirchen

= Di Luca > Kirchen

Giro
9. Pozzovivio

Tour
9. Valverde

= Valverde > Pozzovivio

Giro
10. Simoni

Tour
10. Don't know and don't care

= Simoni

I don't know why I am dragging the entire top 10 in here. Just because Contador was at the Giro does it have a better field than the Tour already.

 

[roundabout]

So if palmares don't count, what makes this "fact" a fact?

 

[theyoungest]

I only have to laugh that you need to use Cadel Evans as evidence of a strong Tour field.

Not as funny though as using Bruseghin as evidence of a strong Giro field. You can underrate Evans all you want, he is a very strong rider, a very strong climber, and by every objective measure he's stronger than both Bruseghin and Pellizotti.

 

[The Hitch]

Palmares doesn't change the fact that Pellizotti is a better climber than Cadel Evans. I don't know what Basso, Nibali and Vinokourov have to do with the '08 Giro/Tour.

I misread. I thought you were arguing that Giro 08 had a stronger field than Giro 10.

So if palmares don't count, what makes this "fact" a fact?

Whether a rider is born in belgium or not

 

[theyoungest]

Whether a rider is born in belgium or not

Or whether a rider has ridden for a Belgian team and was the subject of continuous ridicule by the Belgian press and public, some of whom still do not realize that he is in fact one of the best riders in the world