Official Lance Armstrong Thread: Part 3 (Post-Confession)

[Race Radio]

While we might question the accuracy of this 1992 timeline, I think everyone agrees that he was using EPO by 1995. This IIRC was the way it was reported in From Lance to Landis. But this still takes us back to the question of why the big improvement post cancer. Several people here have argued that Ferrari was a key difference. This argument, though, seems to require a belief that without a doctor’s guidance, riders had no idea what they were doing, and wouldn’t get much benefit. Yet as documented on Science of Sports, studies administering EPO to non-elite athletes show an enormous effect, e.g., a 13% increase in peak power and a > 50% increase in time to exhaustion.

No doubt by the time of the study (2007) you didn’t have to know Ferrari to have access to some information on how best to apply EPO. But the dosing schedule usedwasn’t particularly complicated: the subjects received EPO every other day for two weeks, then once weekly for ten weeks. I really wonder how much difference Dr. OJ made. I can see him making the difference between, say, Ulle beating Armstrong and Ulle finishing second, but the difference between Armstrong pre- and post-cancer? Seems like a stretch.

Hoo boy, check out this:

Great study. I have always thought the stories of EPO's death's were overblown. Some happened, just not the number people think when they think it happened.

When Lance used to brag about Hemmeassit he talked about how great it was but also about how he discovered it on his own, without Ferrai's help

Hard to ignore the other stuff. It is clear that in 99 few riders were using EPO, yet Lance was going full gas. In 2000 few were using Transfusions, yet Lance was.....always ahead of the game

 

[blackcat]

I think the difference is in fact far more dramatic, MI.

The differences were:

pre-cancer <= 1996:
No Hct limit - potential for blood viscosity to limit oxygen delivery
subcutaneous EPO - as much as you want, how long till it's gone, more severe impact on natural EPO production ==> harder post-EPO cycle crash?
testosterone - every day?



post-cancer >= 1997:
50% Hct limit - far less likely for viscosity to affect increased RBC effectiveness
IV EPO - clears far quicker, much smaller doses often, less crash effect post-EPO cycle?
EPO and testosterone scheduled by a doctor who learnt from the father of EPO doping, Conconi


Ok my belief that the difference is dramatic remains, but is an intuition. This list alone (at face value) would not necessarily convince me. I think the key is knowing what the schedule was for the doping pre-cancer, and the ramifications of that schedule, in particular the EPO and actual Hct riders were competing at.

Keep in mind also - testosterone as an anabolic induces increase in RBCs.



Should that "casual" be "causal"?

how about, when there WAS NOT a limit, Armstrong was competing against a faster Queen Stage competitor head-of-race. He could not take any advantage over the field.

When there was an arbitrary limit, and he got concessions from the administrators, he had an advantage that was close to impossible to neutralise. As soon as blood bags became in vogue, Armstrong looked to get his bullies in the UCI onto Mayo et al.

 

[Merckx index]

I think the difference is in fact far more dramatic, MI.

The differences were:

pre-cancer <= 1996:
No Hct limit - potential for blood viscosity to limit oxygen delivery
subcutaneous EPO - as much as you want, how long till it's gone, more severe impact on natural EPO production ==> harder post-EPO cycle crash?
testosterone - every day?

Well, it seems that at least some riders were getting benefits with very high HTs. Did anyone exceed Riis? Did he know what he was doing?

post-cancer >= 1997:
50% Hct limit - far less likely for viscosity to affect increased RBC effectiveness
IV EPO - clears far quicker, much smaller doses often, less crash effect post-EPO cycle?
EPO and testosterone scheduled by a doctor who learnt from the father of EPO doping, Conconi

IV administration did not come into use until 2001 or 2002, for the purposes of avoiding detection of the new EPO test.

Ok my belief that the difference is dramatic remains, but is an intuition. This list alone (at face value) would not necessarily convince me. I think the key is knowing what the schedule was for the doping pre-cancer, and the ramifications of that schedule, in particular the EPO and actual Hct riders were competing at.

The biggest problem I have with your factors is that they should have affected everyone. But as I noted earlier, others, like Ullrich, Pantani and Riis, were doing very well in the Wild West, pre-50% days. Some of the fastest climbs in history were recorded at this time. Armstrong seemed to be more or less unique in missing out. I don't know any other rider who was in the peloton in the early-mid 90s and also in the late 90s and beyond who experienced such an enormous increase in performance over this time period.

Should that "casual" be "causal"?

Good pickup.

 

[Berzin]

This was the same year he actually gained a reputed 20 lbs during their early season camp. 6 hr rides each day and then he went to the gym. None of the Motorola managers were involved and even asked riders if they knew what LA was doing. No mystery now.

Gotta say the muscle tone is impressive, if not highly improbable for a bike rider.

 

[Dear Wiggo]

The biggest problem I have with your factors is that they should have affected everyone. But as I noted earlier, others, like Ullrich, Pantani and Riis, were doing very well in the Wild West, pre-50% days. Some of the fastest climbs in history were recorded at this time. Armstrong seemed to be more or less unique in missing out. I don't know any other rider who was in the peloton in the early-mid 90s and also in the late 90s and beyond who experienced such an enormous increase in performance over this time period.

Even though Lance had an exclusive with Ferrari?

My reading of Conconi is he was doing serious EPO research with elite athletes.

ETA: Ohh hmmm he was with Ferrari pre-cancer. Hrmph. Was it exclusive?

 

[blackcat]

While we might question the accuracy of this 1992 timeline, I think everyone agrees that he was using EPO by 1995. This IIRC was the way it was reported in From Lance to Landis. But this still takes us back to the question of why the big improvement post cancer. Several people here have argued that Ferrari was a key difference. This argument, though, seems to require a belief that without a doctor’s guidance, riders had no idea what they were doing, and wouldn’t get much benefit. Yet as documented on Science of Sports, studies administering EPO to non-elite athletes show an enormous effect, e.g., a 13% increase in peak power and a > 50% increase in time to exhaustion.

No doubt by the time of the study (2007) you didn’t have to know Ferrari to have access to some information on how best to apply EPO. But the dosing schedule usedwasn’t particularly complicated: the subjects received EPO every other day for two weeks, then once weekly for ten weeks. I really wonder how much difference Dr. OJ made. I can see him making the difference between, say, Ulle beating Armstrong and Ulle finishing second, but the difference between Armstrong pre- and post-cancer? Seems like a stretch.

Hoo boy, check out this:

pere Merckx got Lance to ferrari when Axel and Lance were on Motorola and Axel was seeing Ferrari too.

So this is circa 95/06, well before cancer. remember Ferrari was concerned he had played a part in the cancer.

RR has said that Armstrong was like a bull in those first seasons with Ferrari at Motorola training camps, he came in after spending the off season in the gym in austin on a course of roids looking like the cyclist equivalent of a tight end*. might be apocryphal, but the line was Ferrari was encouraging bringing more muscle to races to use the new O2 threshold that his program was providing.

*tight end. my qualifier was cyclings equiv. of TE. ofcourse, a TE in nfl averages 6'2" 250lbs, and a heavy Riis/Armstrong is about 5'11" 170lbs. was metaphorical, nor literal.

 

[blackcat]

He DID look like a linebacker in that top pic especially!
a bit top heavy on that bike?

…actually he looks huge in both..and his face was wide

hey mewmew, looks like i ripped off your post, srry if i had not read this before, but the tightend invoking has been a leitmotif of mine, and i put in in context with RR and Ferrari and Axel and Motorola to flesh it out.

sry

 

[blackcat]

Even though Lance had an exclusive with Ferrari?

My reading of Conconi is he was doing serious EPO research with elite athletes.

ETA: Ohh hmmm he was with Ferrari pre-cancer. Hrmph. Was it exclusive?

Lance did not actually have the exclusive with Ferrari.

I think it was only if he had a competitor like Beloki/Rumsas/Basso/Ullrich, that this caveat would have been used.

Cos he had Evans, Rogers, and a whole suite of Italian and formerUSSRstate riders that I cannot be bothered to find now.

But 18 months ago, I assumed this was the case too.

And I think the performance based contracts were less set in stone too. Armstrong would never be cheap wet the good doctor. Everyone else, including yellow rose "dancers" he would be cheap.

And he did have different "plans" but I think these were less set in stone: re: a 10% of your salary program, v a 20% of your salary program, v a 30% of your salary program.

Ferrari was not cheap. But neither was Frankie Andreu (even tho this is how Armstrong considered the decision reductive, not to use his service)

 

[Race Radio]

Cos he had Evans, Rogers, and a whole suite of Italian and formerUSSRstate riders that I cannot be bothered to find now.

Kinda wonder about that. Have heard Cadel did more then one test in 2000 but who knows. Rogers was a customer after Lance retired

 

[mewmewmew13]

hey mewmew, looks like i ripped off your post, srry if i had not read this before, but the tightend invoking has been a leitmotif of mine, and i put in in context with RR and Ferrari and Axel and Motorola to flesh it out.

sry

all's good bc
I think he's been called that a lot before…
and by Frankie

carry on!

 

[blackcat]

Kinda wonder about that. Have heard Cadel did more then one test in 2000 but who knows. Rogers was a customer after Lance retired

Ferrari said Evans was an idiot. (because prolly, he would not go full gas on doping, and just the recovery doping/managing natural levels of hormones)

He tested with Ferrari cos Rominger was his manager, and they were tight like thieves, when he rode the 2002 Wiesbauer Rund for the Saeco road team and won it, cos he was o the Saeco, sorry, he was on the C-dale mtb team in Norf America.

But even tho his coach was the late great Aldo Sassi his entire career, he did do more than one test with Ferrari. It was more than just the test for Rominger his manager, when he was at C-dale and rode as a stagiare in Weisbauer Tour, when Rominger was trying to get Mapei and other Superteams interested in Evans for a big money contract.

my mail might be wrong, and I am willing to be corrected. Cylingheroes Rene Schuijlenburg had some mail from the horses mouth so to speak, at Telekom training camps when Evans was there. This is about 5 years before they told Rogers to stop working with MF cos it "looked bad".

 

[Race Radio]

Ferrari said Evans was an idiot. (because prolly, he would not go full gas on doping, and just the recovery doping/managing natural levels of hormones)

He tested with Ferrari cos Rominger was his manager, and they were tight like thieves, when he rode the 2002 Wiesbauer Rund for the Saeco road team and won it, cos he was o the Saeco, sorry, he was on the C-dale mtb team in Norf America.

But even tho his coach was the late great Aldo Sassi his entire career, he did do more than one test with Ferrari. It was more than just the test for Rominger his manager, when he was at C-dale and rode as a stagiare in Weisbauer Tour, when Rominger was trying to get Mapei and other Superteams interested in Evans for a big money contract.

my mail might be wrong, and I am willing to be corrected. Cylingheroes Rene Schuijlenburg had some mail from the horses mouth so to speak, at Telekom training camps when Evans was there. This is about 5 years before they told Rogers to stop working with MF cos it "looked bad".

Yeah, I think Evans did more then a test.

Jan was not the only rider who go dropped at Telekom training camps. Evans as well.

 

[ralphbert]

Oooo, Oooo. Look what I found:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4vLV8sizbU&feature=youtu.be

 

[RetroActive]

Looks like the perceptual goalposts are moving in the right direction. This Hendershot fellow sounds like he's talking straight as to how things were in the early ninties. Lots 'o drugs, even in the amateurs.

 

[blackcat]

Oooo, Oooo. Look what I found:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4vLV8sizbU&feature=youtu.be

i would never call him a bad guy

 

[blackcat]

Looks like the perceptual goalposts are moving in the right direction. This Hendershot fellow sounds like he's talking straight as to how things were in the early ninties. Lots 'o drugs, even in the amateurs.

somehow, i contest the qualifier, were. not somehow, not some reason, it is one intuitive appreciate that this is not past tense.

were, this is what JV would like us to believe.

my hat.

 

[jens_attacks]

When people think of this particular version of Armstrong, they are usually referring to 1996, when he was at his biggest in terms of physique.

Here he is at the 1996 Atlanta Olympic individual TT and road race, but he looked the same earlier in the year when he won Fleche Wallone-

these two photos are unbelievable. was there any cyclist in history so bulky? he looks like overeem on a bike for christ sake

maybe kirchen in recent time, whom according to the rumours was hardcore and didn't end well.

not close to lance though

 

[blackcat]

Greipel? when Greipel was his biggest, he lorded it over these guys and Indurain and Cancellara.

and 5 foot nuffin, Robbie Mac was pretty muscley. Ok, he might have weighed only 67, but he was 5 foot nuffin in Christian Louboutins

can you see Robbie rockin these? they show off his calves

 

[jens_attacks]

yes blackcat. but lance and kirchen were climbing! both were winning on mur de huy with that body. kirchen even won on verbier, doing 6,7 w/kg
greipel is a sprinter even yes he looks more like a track sprinter

 

[spalco]

Riis looked pretty thick in 1996 too.

eta: looking at the video again, not nearly as much as Armstrong there though.

 

[jens_attacks]

riis was 69 kilos, he was skeletal for those days. definitely not bulky

 

[blackcat]

yes blackcat. but lance and kirchen were climbing! both were winning on mur de huy with that body. kirchen even won on verbier, doing 6,7 w/kg
greipel is a sprinter even yes he looks more like a track sprinter

i was supposed to put that caveat.

ME F A I L
FAIL.

 

[blackcat]

yes blackcat. but lance and kirchen were climbing! both were winning on mur de huy with that body. kirchen even won on verbier, doing 6,7 w/kg
greipel is a sprinter even yes he looks more like a track sprinter

note, Theo Bos was never a bulky barrel chest trackie, but he has thinned down even more. he is really lean. but not, road cyclist lean.

 

[blackcat]

riis was 69 kilos, he was skeletal for those days. definitely not bulky

after Checcho got on him about dropping those 5 kgs to be a GT contender

 

[andy1234]

Riis looked pretty thick in 1996 too.

eta: looking at the video again, not nearly as much as Armstrong there though.

Riis, thick in 1996? I would hate to be your girlfriend