Tour de France Official Rest Day 2 Thread - Who Wins Polka Dots

[sir fly]

A long Movistar rider training with UAE today.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1414563062850461706

View: https://twitter.com/DareRupar/status/1414563062850461706?s=20

"Hi guys!" he said.

 

[search]

I think the GC contenders won't be taking (m)any points before the summit finishes. And even on the MTFs it's not certain they'll share top prizes. Can't see both altitude finishes going to the GC contenders. Not with UAE's approach so far. One at best.

yeah, that's unlikely for sure, but those two final climbs (80pt) still outscore all others left underway (65pt together), so it's not impossible. UAE will not do much of course, but teams like Movistar, EF and even Ineos risk finishing this tour with empty hands (no stage win + potentially no podium) if they don't chase down the break, so I'd say it's more likely those two stages are won by a GC guy.

 

[sir fly]

yeah, that's unlikely for sure, but those two final climbs (80pt) still outscore all others left underway (65pt together), so it's not impossible. UAE will not do much of course, but teams like Movistar, EF and even Ineos risk finishing this tour with empty hands (no stage win + potentially no podium) if they don't chase down the break, so I'd say it's more likely those two stages are won by a GC guy.

Possible, possible...
The teams you've mentioned can look for consolation through the breakaways, too. I'll dare to say their chances are bigger that way.

 

[Leinster]

Would 100% hate for Pogacar to win the KoM jersey. The battle is the best it's been in many years it would suck hard for it to go to a rider who doesn't really give a *** about it and only gets it cause the point system is so lopsided

As said, the only places Pog is likely to get points are the 2 MTFs (and probably not even them), so the max he's likely to get is 26 + 40x2 = 106.

Poels, and probably 1 of the other 3 lead contenders, is likely to be past 100 points by the foot of the Portet.


I am really, really happy to see a genuine, multi-rider contest, between some high-level competitors, for the polka dots for the first time in I don't know how long. Can anyone remember what the last time was that there was a proper competition like this?

 

[Leinster]

yeah, that's unlikely for sure, but those two final climbs (80pt) still outscore all others left underway (65pt together), so it's not impossible. UAE will not do much of course, but teams like Movistar, EF and even Ineos risk finishing this tour with empty hands (no stage win + potentially no podium) if they don't chase down the break, so I'd say it's more likely those two stages are won by a GC guy.

If Movistar, EF and Ineos want to win stages in the final week, their best chance to do so is probably not to tow Pogacar to striking distance on a MTF. They'd be much better off putting Lopez/Valverde/Higuita/Porte in the break and try and do a deal with Poels/hope Kuss is working for Vingo for the rest of the race.

 

[search]

maybe, yeah. The chance for someone like Lopez or Porte to get in the break on those flat starts is close to zero, though. I'd still tend to say those are more likely GC stages

 

[will-10]

I am really, really happy to see a genuine, multi-rider contest, between some high-level competitors, for the polka dots for the first time in I don't know how long. Can anyone remember what the last time was that there was a proper competition like this?

2012 Voeckler/Rolland/Kessiakoff was pretty good or 2011(?) with Charteau trying to hold on, but definitely not as high a level as we're seeing this year.

Just scrolled back to see if there's any obvious years I've missed but 2010s is almost all GC guys and then you're soon into Rasmussen's and Virenque's eras.

Enjoy it while it lasts folks! Hopefully it's a sign of things to come that 9th on GC isn't as valuable as the KOM anymore - sure to change if any of those teams get into WT licence trouble points-wise though.

 

[Finn84]

Imagine KOM battle being decided in Côte des Grès.

 

[Bonimenier]

I am really, really happy to see a genuine, multi-rider contest, between some high-level competitors, for the polka dots for the first time in I don't know how long. Can anyone remember what the last time was that there was a proper competition like this?

Last year it was decided on the last mountain of the Tour. Doesn't get much closer than that.

 

[Leinster]

2012 Voeckler/Rolland/Kessiakoff was pretty good or 2011(?) with Charteau trying to hold on, but definitely not as high a level as we're seeing this year.

Just scrolled back to see if there's any obvious years I've missed but 2010s is almost all GC guys and then you're soon into Rasmussen's and Virenque's eras.

Enjoy it while it lasts folks! Hopefully it's a sign of things to come that 9th on GC isn't as valuable as the KOM anymore - sure to change if any of those teams get into WT licence trouble points-wise though.

In fairness, Barguil in 2017 went for stage wins and the KOM, and in doing so pulled himself back into the top 10 on GC. He contested his 2 stage wins, plus his 2nd place, all against GC riders. Which is how you want the KOM to be decided really; we complain about the double points for final climbs, but the point of that is to not have someone go for the Polka Dots by cleaning up all the early points and cruising over the final mountain.

One of the best ones was actually Majka having to fight for 3rd place on Hautacam, and holding off Nibali by 13 points.

 

[Leinster]

Last year it was decided on the last mountain of the Tour. Doesn't get much closer than that.

Yes, but between the white jersey who had picked it up as a by-product of contesting the GC, and a guy who pretty much picked up all his points on a single breakaway day in the last week, after his team leader went home. Neither of them were even trying for KOM points in the first 2 weeks; Carapaz had a total of 12 points after stage 16, and was behind such mountain goats as Geschke, Skuijins, Roche and Powless.

 

[Valanga]

I think a Wout. By the way is Van Aert the most aggressive rider so far?

Based on km's in the breakaway, it's obviously the new Thomas De Gendt ;-)
(if PCS is somewhat correct)

#​	Name​	KM in first group​	KM before peloton​	Stages​
1	VAN MOER Brent	421	484	[4, 7, 12]
2	VAN AERT Wout	350	478	[7, 11, 15]
3	BONNAMOUR Franck	323	466	[1, 7, 15]
4	ALAPHILIPPE Julian	356	454	[11, 12, 14, 15]
5	POELS Wout	273	444	[8, 9, 14, 15]

For the polka dots, I went for Woods.
Van Aert could probably take it if he wanted, but I hope he doesn't want it and saves himself just a little bit for the Olympics.

 

[Oliver]

With big mountains coming up, I went for Woods

 

[Leinster]

Poels out the back on the Port and the others did nothing.

I am disappoint.

 

[Escarabajo]

Poels out the back on the Port and the others did nothing.

I am disappoint.

The break was already gone when that happened. I checked.
It is a non-factor since Pogacar will win the jersey!!!

 

[Leinster]

The break was already gone when that happened. I checked.
It is a non-factor since Pogacar will win the jersey!!!

1. They were a minute or 2 up the road at the time. Not an easy bridge, but the whole ISN team is still in the race, and Dan Martin has got across bigger gaps on his own.
2. Nairo never even tried to get in the break. I can see a case for him going for the bang-for-buck option and targeting the Luz Ardiden stage, but there were points for grabs today.
3. WvA was happy to attack in the final 40km when there were no points or nothing on offer.
4. The polka dots should not be out the back on the Col de Port. Even Cosnefroy put up more of a fight last year.

 

[will-10]

Rnk	Prev	▼▲	Rider	Points
1	1	-	POELS WoutBahrain - Victorious	78
2	7	▲5	POGAČAR TadejUAE-Team Emirates	67
3	3	-	QUINTANA NairoTeam Arkéa Samsic	66
4	2	▼2	WOODS MichaelIsrael Start-Up Nation	66
5	4	▼1	VAN AERT WoutTeam Jumbo-Visma	64

 

[sir fly]

At least it's not over yet.

 

[RedheadDane]

Polka dots being a big game of; "Mine!", "No! MINE!", "No! It's actually mine!"

 

[Bonimenier]

It wouldn't surprise me if Pogacar decides he wants polka dots as well and let UAE try to control the break tomorrow.

 

[Escarabajo]

The break was already gone when that happened. I checked.
It is a non-factor since Pogacar will win the jersey!!!

The only chance by KOM riders is if the break away sticks tomorrow. Poels, Quintana and Woods had no choice but to go in the breakaway tomorrow. Even if the fail there is no other way obviously.
Quintana and Poels tried to get some points today. Woods tried a different tactic trying to hold on in the front group. But failed as well.
At least we know what they will do tomorrow!

 

[Leinster]

Is it too much to ask that Perez might attack before the top of the Tourmalet, win that and the stage, and take the jersey?



Pog I’ll probably still finish 3rd on the stage and take it anyway. I hate this contest right now.

 

[Andre]

Well it seems my prediction of Van Aert getting the polka dot was wrong. Most of my predictions are.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Congratulations @Escarabajo, Zoetemelk-fan, ngent41, lemon cheese cake, dercuforever, solo80k, Bonimenier, bizzmane89, Tinnekeisabella, Unterlenkerfahrend, and Soranos