Official thread: Giro d'Italia

[Wattie]

Di Luca:
20 seconds on stage 4
12 seconds on stage 5
8 seconds on sage 8
20 seconds on stage 10
8 seconds on stage 16
8 seconds on stage 17
8 seconds on stage 19
Total: 1.26

Menchov:
20 seconds on stage 5
8 seconds on stage 10
12 seconds on stage 16
Total: 0.40

Pellizotti:
8 seconds on stage 4
12 seconds on stage 10
20 seconds on stage 17
12 seconds on stage 19
Total: 0.52

So basically, the top three would be the same - with Menchov a much clearer leader.

Edit: if my 20-12-8 assumption is right for all stages.

Thanks for working that out. I take it that no time bouses are given on the ITTs.

So, looking across the results Di Luca has taken real time out of Menchov on 4 stages (including the TTT) with the biggest gain being the 24 seconds he took on stage 3. Menchov has taken time out of Di Luca on 3 stages with the largest margin being the 1:54 gained in the time trial and the other two being 2 and 1secs respectively. Interestingly the biggest gap Di Luca has made on Menchov was when Menchov got caught out on a flatish stage and managed his usual trick of losing time where he shouldn't have (just as he did in last years Tour de France). In mitigation a number of riders were held up by a crash and I assume this is what happened to Menchov. If by some chance Menchov does lose the overall, he might look at that innocuous stage in the frst week as where the real damage was done.

Looking at the map of the ITT course it is very twisty. It may be flat, but with all the tight corners there is going to be a great deal of accelerating out of turns etc, which might make Menchov's advantage as the better rider agasint the clock less than if it was a flat and non-technical course.

 

[Anonymous]

if it's raining tomorrow doesn't that pretty much throw the whole shabang into chaos?
i'd think those with any tour aspirations would have to be really careful would't they?
could be a dilema for menchov. he pretty much has to be aggressive enough to win the giro putting him at more risk for a crash.
i don't think lance could be faulted for not going for it if it rains. levi either.
wouldn't you say levi is still a possible winner tomorrow if it's dry?

 

[Zoncolan]

Tomorrow's TT

Do they really need to have the top 20 start at three minute intervals?
I mean, the course is under 15 km. With the high probability of rain tomorrow, somebody might get an unfair advantage. Minute and a half to two minutes would be plenty enough.

Starting order:
http://www.gazzetta.it/Speciali/Giroditalia/2009/scaricabili/T21_ordine_partenza.pdf

 

[180mmCrank]

Looking at various weather reports - it seems to be 30%-40% chance of rain - which I think typically means there will at least be showers. It get's slightly worse as the day goes on.

I think we can assume the conditions are going to be at least damp...and a little slippy but probably not (rivers in the streets) treacherous.

My prediction would be that those that are not shooting for the podium (or don’t have aspirations for a stage win) are going to back off and be cautious. So Armstrong will take it easy but Di Luca and Menchov will be going at it hammer and tongs. The course is pretty twisty, short and fast - there is a real chance of someone ending up on the deck and losing some time.

Exciting for us watching but not what the doctor ordered for the riders!

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

The course suits both Lance and Levi. But I'm going to pick Menchov, as the Giro is on the line for him - he won't know DiLuca's splits really, and I think he'd like to cement it with a statement, and the course suits him too.

 

[issoisso]

I see a pursuit specialist doing very well. The course isn't a "straight road, power on" type course that would suit Zabriskie or Leipheimer.

Of course, wind tends to decide who wins about 50% of flat time trials, by changing drastically during the day. So anything can happen.
Also, on such a technical course, with a high likelyhood of a wet course, a crash could very well decide the Giro (let's hope not).

 

[Cobblestones]

If it's raining, punctures are more likely. Menchov could lose the overall.

 

[BroDeal]

I would say that with corners Di Luca will do better than expected by sprinting out of the corners, but on Vesuvio it looked like the snap in his legs is gone. His attacks were not very strong and he was unable to get a temporary gap on Menchov. On the other hand Menchov will have to be conservative in the corners. A crash could give Di Luca enough time to win the Giro. Di Luca will be able to take risks. If it rains then things could get interesting.

Di Luca does not seem to be a good enough time trialist to win without Menchov crashing.

 

[lookkg386]

Rain really does shake it up, Menchov can't be too cautious, I would think he'll go for the win if he feels good.

 

[180mmCrank]

Latest weather in Rome has pushed up from 30%-40% precipitation to 60%-70% and is now calling it light rain rather than showers.

Looks like this will effect the riders. I am not sure Menchov can afford to be too cautious and as others have already said - the twisty shorter course was already a bit of a leveler - the rain seems to play further into Di Luca's hands.

What do we think if Menchov loses the Giro because he takes a spill? Is it unfair, unfortunate or just racing?

 

[craig1985]

Latest weather in Rome has pushed up from 30%-40% precipitation to 60%-70% and is now calling it light rain rather than showers.

Looks like this will effect the riders. I am not sure Menchov can afford to be too cautious and as others have already said - the twisty shorter course was already a bit of a leveler - the rain seems to play further into Di Luca's hands.

What do we think if Menchov loses the Giro because he takes a spill? Is it unfair, unfortunate or just racing?

Certainly unfortunate for mine.

Anyway can LA speak Italian or can DDL speak English as I see photos on CN of them speaking a fair bit so they obviously have some way to communicate to each other. And my last point is that I'm really impressed with Petacchi as rider. He won a couple of sprints in the 1st week and now he is the first guy helping DDL on the front and get bottles for his teammates. Showing his quality right there.

 

[gingerwallaceafro]

Armstrong can speak Italian as he used to live there. I reckon it would be most unfortunate if Menchov took a spill and lost enough time to not win, I thought he was unfortunate in the TDF last year a couple of times, once when he was looking good in a crucial day in the mountains and picked his time to attack and his foot slipped from his pedal...

 

[TheObjectiveBelgian]

Fine Giro for Belgian riders

Well, we have seen some great things from our young Belgian riders...

Yesterday, Philippe Gilbert really put the 'cherish on the cake' to win the stage. (And you have to agree, everytime Gilbert wins, it's really in a superb way.)

Kevin Seeldraeyers has won the white jersey, which he did earlier in Paris-Nice as well.

Furthermore, the world finally has discovered Serge Pauwels.

I was also charmed by Dries Devenyns.

Future does not only look good for the classic cycling in Belgium..

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

Well, we have seen some great things from our young Belgian riders...

There's a big chance a Belgian wins the Maglia Bianca, for the second year in a row !!
(Jurgen Vandenbroeck ended second in the youth competition last year, after Ricco, so that's worth a first place)

Jurgen Van den Broeck
Kevin Seeldraeyers
Serge Pauwels
Stijn Devolder
Maxime Monfort
...

The belgians can climb again!

 

[craig1985]

LA rates Devolder a sa potential Tour GC rider. Works for me!

 

[Susan Westemeyer]

I just had an SMS from our reporter on the scene, Gregor Brown, who says there is no rain, at least at the moment. Clouds and light wind.

Susan

 

[Jasper]

There's a big chance a Belgian wins the Maglia Bianca, for the second year in a row !!
(Jurgen Vandenbroeck ended second in the youth competition last year, after Ricco, so that's worth a first place)

Jurgen Van den Broeck
Kevin Seeldraeyers
Serge Pauwels
Stijn Devolder
Maxime Monfort
...

The belgians can climb again!

Monfort is in 2nd place in the Bayern Rundfahrt, and he only missed the lead with 10 seconds. Seems like he's quietly growing towards good form, so I hope he can make it into the Columbia Tour squad.

 

[tifosa]

Menchov!

Have to give myself props for this:
http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showthread.php?p=17006#post17006

 

[Parrot23]

What do we think if Menchov loses the Giro because he takes a spill? Is it unfair, unfortunate or just racing?

Unfortunate. Didn't he already lose 24 secs early in the Giro from being held up by a crash? So it would be very unfair, whatever his tactics.

Voigt said at end of his TT: "The pave was extremely dangerous in the rain and it was too risky to try to push too hard. It's going to be a shame that the Giro, after 3,300km, that it all could be decided by a crash on the final day in these conditions. I hope that it's dry for the final riders in the hunt for the GC and that they can race in fair conditions."

 

[Parrot23]

LA rates Devolder a sa potential Tour GC rider. Works for me!

Heard this too, or earlier last year. Can't quite understand. Doesn't Devolder have a big ****, to put it not too politely, a la Vinokourev? All that classics muscle is hard to pull over very long climbs, like dragging bricks, even if it's muscle.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Great win and huge props for Dennis Menchov for pulling it out, even after crashing. Nice to see him show such emotion when crossing the line there as he's normally pretty stoic.

Kinda feel a bit for Bradly Wiggins. After such an up/down Giro, to lose like that oy.

I don't know that Lance is fluent in Italian, but he probably speaks enough of it, and considering that English is as common a language in the peloton as any these days, DDL probably speaks some. Sounds like a recipe for a fun conversation!

 

[TheObjectiveBelgian]

Great win and huge props for Dennis Menchov for pulling it out, even after crashing. Nice to see him show such emotion when crossing the line there as he's normally pretty stoic.

I agree, and I have to say, and maybe it's a bit stupid, i feel much more sympathy for him now by this emotional burstout alone...

I can't quite remember when I've seen this much emotion when someone wins a big race....

Congratulations for Menchov and Rabobank !! Nicely done !!

 

[ElChingon]

There's a type-o in the Mechov story:

The record books show Menchov as the victor but he missed out on the sensations of riding into Madrid in the Maillot Oreo and spraying the ...

I never heard of the Oreo jersey

 

[BroDeal]

There's a type-o in the Mechov story:

I never heard of the Oreo jersey

Neither have I but I will be placing a thousand euro bet that the Cookie Monster takes the win next year.

 

[ElChingon]

Neither have I but I will be placing a thousand euro bet that the Cookie Monster takes the win next year.

Does that mean we finally get to give Mechov a nicknmae

Mechov is the Cookie Monster!