Yeah, I can't see how WvA has a chance without winning the Worlds. No monument, 3rd in the UCI Points standings. He's not going to get the Velo d'Or just for winning 3 more races than Jasper Philipsen.
Same for Pogacar though, who's had a great season, but no GT or monument (unless you count strade bianche, which I think you shouldn't). And Vingegaard won the Tour, yes great, but what else? If that's enough, then any Tour winner should just automatically get the Velo d'Or.
Imo, if Pogacar wins Lombardia or the WC RR, he's got it, regardless of what Van Aert or Remco do further in the season, but otherwise it's really close between a bunch of guys.