The biological passport isn't an alarm bell that goes off at the first sign of a strange ***. It's a statistical profile for each rider, built from numerous measurements, that looks for patterns that no longer fit natural fluctuations. Only when three independent experts unanimously agree that doping is the most likely explanation can prosecution be initiated. This takes time, not to mention the legal process.
What the system must first rule out: individual limits must be accurate. The model learns the normal range of that one rider, not that of the peloton. That takes multiple measurements over months. External influences must be accounted for. Altitude training, illness, blood loss during a crash, dehydration after a heat race, time and position at the time of blood collection, even the length of time the tourniquet was worn. All these factors can visibly shift hemoglobin and reticulocytes. Laboratory procedures must be impeccable. The correct box, the correct chain of custody, the correct analysis, and complete forms. A missing check can delay a case for months.
The rider receives the file and may provide statements and medical documents. This is followed by a round with a panel of three passport experts. Unanimity is required.
Case A, transfusion pattern after altitude Rider A has had stable hemoglobin around 15.0 percent and reticulocytes around 1.2 percent for years. January 2024 14.7 and 1.0. Winter, nothing unusual. Early March, just back from three weeks at altitude 15.5 and 1.6. Consistent with altitude; the body produces more young red blood cells. Late May, in the run-up to a stage race 16.6 and 0.4. High hemoglobin combined with suppressed reticulocytes. This is more consistent with an artificial increase in red blood cells than with altitude. However, one measurement point is not enough, especially not shortly after a period at altitude. July, rest day in a Grand Tour without recent altitude 16.8 and 0.3. Same pattern, now without a plausible natural cause. September, training block at sea level 16.5 and 0.4. The same picture for the third time, at different points during the season. Only after this series can the model say with high certainty that this profile falls outside the individual limits, without altitude, illness, or measurement conditions explaining it. Only then does an Atypical Passport Finding follow; the panel requests an explanation, and if it's unconvincing, legal action can be taken.
Case B, microdosing with EPO and apparently normal values Rider B doses very small and often, especially in the evening. Immediately after a dose, the proportion of young red blood cells rises briefly, then subsides. Individual measurements therefore appear to remain within the limits. What the passport sees is in the dynamics. Over six to nine months, a saw-tooth pattern develops in reticulocytes, with small peaks at illogical times, plus a slow but consistent increase in hemoglobin outside the individual's expectations. There is no recent altitude, the hydration tests are normal, and the time of collection varies. A single value is never hard evidence, but the repeatability of the pattern is. Here too, you first need multiple samples, spread across different contexts, before you can speak with certainty.
Case C, the process and why the outside world only hears about it late
Step 1, reporting
The passport unit detects, based on new measurements, that the individual model is being exceeded and asks the rider for context. This is not yet public.
Step 2, targeted checks
Additional checks are scheduled at unpredictable times, often on rest days and during periods without altitude stimuli. This takes weeks to months.
Step 3, expert panel
Three independent specialists assess the complete file. They can request additional data, such as altitude programs, medical records, and logbooks. A unanimous conclusion is required.
Step 4, complaint and defense
Only then will a formal complaint be filed with the federation. The rider may respond, often with their own experts. This involves hearing both sides of the story, hearings, and possible postponement requests. This is the part that really keeps the clock ticking.
Why are simple graphs misleading? A single spike can be caused by dehydration after a hot ride. Elevated hemoglobin can remain visible for weeks after altitude. A low reticulocyte count can be indicative of recovery from illness. The passport therefore considers combinations over time. High hemoglobin combined with suppressed reticulocytes at multiple, carefully chosen moments, without altitude or medical reason, is indeed a red flag. As long as you don't see this combination repeatedly, you can't legally sanction it.
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