It's going to be very interesting that's for sure. Because it's the Olympics there are going to be people who aren't there as they don't get selected and there are going to be people who probably have no business being in the race. The course itself looks pretty easy, a couple of rock gardens and a couple of tricky climbs to put people off but it's not up to the standard of most WC XCO tracks. There's a good wide track at the start which should allow the top guys (possibly Sagan, I'll discuss him afterwards) to get out front of the also rans and avoid the pile ups.
I think it's now a big 4; Schurter, Absalon, Kulhavy and Marotte with a few guys nipping at their heels. Any of these guys could take it but Nino is obviously the massive favourite and rightly so. I'll be interested to see if anyone takes a hardtail. I'm guessing not, FS bikes are so good and light these days that it almost seems silly for pros not to use them, but that long run in to the end may make someone think about it.
Sagan... Lets just say from the start that I'm not a big fan of his inclusion although I've definitely warmed to him as a rider. The threads in the PRR section seem to be populated by roadies who know nothing about MTB and think it needs a boost from Sagan, yet he's hardly even been mentioned on most MTB sites I read and even then only as a passing comment. He also has pretty much no recognition outside of road cycling, so the only people he's likely to attract are road fans, it's not like he transcends the sport. Sagan winning would be massively detrimental for MTB in my opinion, it would show that a road rider, albeit one of the best, can just move across and grab a gold medal. It also seems a pretty arrogant move, similar to Van Der Poel and we all know how that worked out...
He's going to be gridded at the back so he'll have to work harder than any of the big names to get out front and he needs to do that if he has any intention of winning a medal. Working your way through an WC XCO field out on the real track is ok because all the riders have the skills needed to navigate the course, that's not necessarily the case at the Olympics and you can't let those 4 riders and the few others get a big gap on you. He's then going to have to keep up on the technical stuff, which we really have no indication that he is capable of doing, and keep up on the climbs. I don't think it's a coincidence that the big names who come from MTB to road turn out to be good climbers and Climbers with a kick; Evans, Peraud, Froome, Ferrand-Prevot, Rasmussen. Personally I think Sagan's best chance is to keep in touch and take a sprint finish, but I really can't see him staying in touch with Nino et. al. light it up either on the hills or the downhills. I think top 10 is achievable if he can stay on his bike as he is obviously an extremely talented bike rider, but podium seems completely out of the question.