One for auscyclefan94...

[karlboss]

So now that Cadel is in the Giro and the Tour, what should he aim for and why? Is GC and GC unresonalble, which course suits him better?

For GC if not for Alberto I'd say the this year's tour is one for Cadel. I think it favours the TTers who can climb more than climbers who can TT. The Giro is out and out for punchy climbers, the advantage being I doubt Contador and Schleck will turn up.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I have my own thread. I feel special!

Personally, the tour suits evans more than the giro but they are really both climbers tours. The lack of tt'ing in the tour doesn't suit evans. The reason why evans has more chance on a punchy climing tour like the giro this year is because the competition is a bit lower.

Look at the itt'ing km's of past and this years tour *(not including MT ITT):
2010 - 59km (don't know result)
2009 -55km (4mins to 2nd place Schleck) - Had a TTT
2008 - 82km (58 seconds to 2nd place evans)
2007 -117km (23 seconds to 2nd place evans)
2006 - 116km (32 seconds to 2nd place Kloden)
2005 - 74km (4mins 40seconds to 2nd place Basso) - Had a TTT
2004 - 66.1km (6min 19 seconds to 2nd place kloden) - Had a TTT
2003 - 102.5km (1 min 1 second to 2nd place Ullrich) - HAD a TTT

Do you see the trend? TTT's and lack of ITT km's cause big time gaps in tours. 2003 had a ttt but it at least had lots of ITTkm's.

 

[Hugh Januss]

I have my own thread. I feel special.

And you are.

Edit: I'm just jealous I don't have a thread of my own.

 

[auscyclefan94]

And you are.

Edit: I'm just jealous I don't have a thread of my own.

That's coming from someone who has a cat with a green thing on it's head as an avatar!

 

[Ferminal]

I guess Evans still goes full gas at the Giro, but you can't help but think that the Tour will be lingering in his mind whilst puffing up the Zoncolan.

What is the lowest gross placings Evans can achieve from the TdF and Giro.

Of those who completed both last year -

Armstrong 14 (11th and 3rd)
Sastre 20 (3rd and 17th)
Pellizotti 39 (2nd and 37th)

It just gets worse from there with guys like Menchov, Popovych, Rogers and Leipheimer (DNF).

If Evans gets top5 at the Giro, then I think the best he can hope for in the Tour is top10.

 

[blaxland]

I guess Evans still goes full gas at the Giro, but you can't help but think that the Tour will be lingering in his mind whilst puffing up the Zoncolan.

What is the lowest gross placings Evans can achieve from the TdF and Giro.

Of those who completed both last year -

Armstrong 14 (11th and 3rd)
Sastre 20 (3rd and 17th)
Pellizotti 39 (2nd and 37th)

It just gets worse from there with guys like Menchov, Popovych, Rogers and Leipheimer (DNF).

If Evans gets top5 at the Giro, then I think the best he can hope for in the Tour is top10.

+1 agree.....I think the Giro is the acheivable goal this year but,TDF maybe top 5 or top 10??Both courses favour the climbers really,I think going after the KOM jersey(TDF) would be more reasonable for Cadel this year!That would be another leaders jersey in his Palmares..

 

[Hugh Januss]

+1 agree.....I think the Giro is the acheivable goal this year but,TDF maybe top 5 or top 10??Both courses favour the climbers really,I think going after the KOM jersey(TDF) would be more reasonable for Cadel this year!That would be another leaders jersey in his Palmares..

I don't think he could get the spotted jersey for the simple fact that it is usually won by a no-hoper who gets most of his points in a day long mountain stage break and then hangs on to the end of the race. I don't think the other contenders would ever give Evans that kind of slack.
He should totally go for the Giro, he will never win the tour now.

 

[PACONi]

I don't think he could get the spotted jersey for the simple fact that it is usually won by a no-hoper who gets most of his points in a day long mountain stage break and then hangs on to the end of the race. I don't think the other contenders would ever give Evans that kind of slack.
He should totally go for the Giro, he will never win the tour now.

Unfortunately for Cadel, this is most likely true. Still, a Giro win would a fitting reward for him.

 

[auscyclefan94]

With a good route he could definetly win!

 

[Cerberus]

I have my own thread. I feel special!

Personally, the tour suits evans more than the giro but they are really both climbers tours. The lack of tt'ing in the tour doesn't suit evans. The reason why evans has more chance on a punchy climing tour like the giro this year is because the competition is a bit lower.

Look at the itt'ing km's of past and this years tour *(not including MT ITT):
2010 - 59km (don't know result)
2009 -55km (4mins to 2nd place Schleck) - Had a TTT
2008 - 82km (58 seconds to 2nd place evans)
2007 -117km (23 seconds to 2nd place evans)
2006 - 116km (32 seconds to 2nd place Kloden)
2005 - 74km (4mins 40seconds to 2nd place Basso) - Had a TTT
2004 - 66.1km (6min 19 seconds to 2nd place kloden) - Had a TTT
2003 - 102.5km (1 min 1 second to 2nd place Ullrich) - HAD a TTT

Do you see the trend? TTT's and lack of ITT km's cause big time gaps in tours. 2003 had a ttt but it at least had lots of ITTkm's.

You need to take a really basic statistics (or logic) course - Correlation does not prove causation, particular not when the sample is ludicrously small and you haven't corrected for (painfully obvious) alternative explanations. You could even just re-watch the Tours in question with an eye towards the performance of the contenders in the TT. More TT miles make the Tour closer if the top rider is a worse Timetrialist than number 2 (and possible 3, 4 etc.). They make the Tour less close if the winner is a better Timetrialist.

 

[auscyclefan94]

You need to take a really basic statistics (or logic) course - Correlation does not prove causation, particular not when the sample is ludicrously small and you haven't corrected for (painfully obvious) alternative explanations. You could even just re-watch the Tours in question with an eye towards the performance of the contenders in the TT. More TT miles make the Tour closer if the top rider is a worse Timetrialist than number 2 (and possible 3, 4 etc.). They make the Tour less close if the winner is a better Timetrialist.

The stats speak for themselves. I am right. Your post is wrong.

 

[Hugh Januss]

With a good route he could definetly win!

Yeah if everyone else takes a different (and longer) route.
I think we are witnessing a changing of the guard as it were. Neither Lance, Evans, Levi, Klodin, Basso, Menchov, Sastre etc. will ever win the tour from this point on. The winner for the next several years will come from the group of young guns, Contador, Schleck, Nibali, Sanchez, Valverde (after a suitable period of time) Kreutziger and others on the way up, will be the contenders in the future. Maybe Machado and Sagan, even Wigans can be included if you like.

 

[Ferminal]

Yeah if everyone else takes a different (and longer) route.
I think we are witnessing a changing of the guard as it were. Neither Lance, Evans, Levi, Klodin, Basso, Menchov, Sastre etc. will ever win the tour from this point on. The winner for the next several years will come from the group of young guns, Contador

Stop there.

 

[blaxland]

I don't think he could get the spotted jersey for the simple fact that it is usually won by a no-hoper who gets most of his points in a day long mountain stage break and then hangs on to the end of the race. I don't think the other contenders would ever give Evans that kind of slack.
He should totally go for the Giro, he will never win the tour now.

I agree he wont win the Tour....but are you forgetting TDF 2009=Pellizotti KOM winner=definantley not a nobody...3rd In Giro'...................Cadel just needs to loose about 5 minutes in the first Mountain Stage of The Tour.....then leeway might be given..

 

[Cerberus]

The stats speak for themselves. I am right. Your post is wrong.

So another TT in 2009 would magically have cut Contadors lead by 3-4 minutes? Armstrong got sick/dehydrated/whatever you believe happened in 2003 because it had more TT miles. Rasmussen got kicked out of the 2007 Tour thus making it close because of TT miles? Perriorro got into that breakaway and got the exact amount of time he needed for a narrow victory because of the number of TT miles? Armstrong won by more than 7 minutesin 2002 with more ITT miles than in any year since because? Miguel Indurain won comfortable victories in all those Tours he won with lot of TT miles because of "ehm, ehh"? Please tell me you're joking?

 

[Hugh Januss]

Stop there.

Depends on the pollen count in July. But seriously while he looks pretty dominant at this point I am not ready to conceed the next 7 years to him and him alone. He might get bored with winning only one race a year and over reach himself, and honestly I would rather see him do that than become another one race wonder like LA. Some of the other guys on the way up might grow into being serious contenders themselves. He has the best chance of anybody of winning more than 7 tours but nothing is written in stone.

 

[Hugh Januss]

I agree he wont win the Tour....but are you forgetting TDF 2009=Pellizotti KOM winner=definantley not a nobody...3rd In Giro'...................Cadel just needs to loose about 5 minutes in the first Mountain Stage of The Tour.....then leeway might be given..

Yeah that could happen but he would probably have to give up twice that much time before any of the bigs would be willing to risk giving it back. Think Pereiro.

 

[Hotbrakes]

even Wigans can be included if you like.

No thanks. He will never win the tour.

Evans best chance was 2008, unfortunately it was his last. I do want to see him do well, but top five in both the Giro and the Tour is more realistic. He is driven by the dream of winning the Tour so he will tank it in the Giro to save himself for his main goal in life. I like the idea of doing the Tour then the Vuelta much better.

 

[karlboss]

I guess Evans still goes full gas at the Giro, but you can't help but think that the Tour will be lingering in his mind whilst puffing up the Zoncolan.

What is the lowest gross placings Evans can achieve from the TdF and Giro.

Of those who completed both last year -

Armstrong 14 (11th and 3rd)
Sastre 20 (3rd and 17th)
Pellizotti 39 (2nd and 37th)

It just gets worse from there with guys like Menchov, Popovych, Rogers and Leipheimer (DNF).

If Evans gets top5 at the Giro, then I think the best he can hope for in the Tour is top10.

Pantani 94 3rd and 2nd
98 1st and 1st
Indurain 92 1st and 1st
93 1st and 1st
94 3rd and 1st
I'm just saying going for both isn't impossible in the "modern" era. Not for one second do I rate Cadel alongside either of these 2.

 

[Ferminal]

Pantani 94 3rd and 2nd
98 1st and 1st
Indurain 92 1st and 1st
93 1st and 1st
94 3rd and 1st
I'm just saying going for both isn't impossible in the "modern" era. Not for one second do I rate Cadel alongside either of these 2.

Pre-99 is a different era imo...

 

[issoisso]

With a good route he could definetly win!

However, with this route his chances are minimal. He would need to take time in the mountains from Pellizotti and Sastre. I don't see it happening

 

[karlboss]

However, with this route his chances are minimal. He would need to take time in the mountains from Pellizotti and Sastre. I don't see it happening

and not lose 3 minutes in a TTT to liquigas.

 

[issoisso]

and not lose 3 minutes in a TTT to liquigas.

Hincapie, Ballan and Burghardt are all likely to there, so that damage shouldn't be too large.

But point taken.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Pre-99 is a different era imo...

menchov 2008, 4th and 5th i think?

 

[Ferminal]

menchov 2008, 4th and 5th i think?

5th and 3rd (if you don't count Kohl). I'd be surprised if Evans beats that this year.

Great achievement. He could've won too. Maybe the Giro took that bit out of him.