Opinion: After CAS , what will Alberto's penalty be?

[Dallas_]

Depending on RFEC's decision, either Contador or UCI/WADA will appeal this case to CAS. In my opinion, the CAS decision will be a 2 year sanction.

cheers to all

 

[sniper]

Depending on RFEC's decision, either Contador or UCI/WADA will appeal this case to CAS. In my opinion, the CAS decision will be a 2 year sanction.

cheers to all

bless you if you're right.

 

[theswordsman]

25,000 athletes let their Whereabouts blank in ADAMS today as a first protest against WADA. They want, among other things, to be able to vote athletes to be part of the system. They're also going after the legality of strict liability, where athletes who have been found innocent were still punished.

On a separate front, athletes are concerned that labs admit accidental contamination from Clenbuterol is very possible, yet WADA refused to have a minimum threshold for the substance, even though labs are only required to be able to test for 200 picograms. So another group of athletes who have never tested positive for anything are pushing for WADA to set a minimum. That would certainly be above the 50 found in Contador or 80 for Otcharov, the athlete they named.

There's a real possibility that WADA will be pressured to set a minimum that would make 50 picograms a non-positive. There's also a real chance they'll be forced to remove the strict liability. So before this could even go to CAS, the two positives for 50 & 20 picograms might not be considered a violation.

Since there are two large groups of athletes who are in no trouble for anything pushing to make the changes, and those efforts will be more public as time goes on, I'm done fighting the argument here. The rules about Clenbuterol were set by a couple or a few of fallible human beings. It wasn't handed down from a deity that 50 picograms of Clenbuterol in your urine means you were a cheater. If thousands of people have seen enough highly publicized stories about their fellow athletes and are willing to call shenanigans on the people who made the choice, so be it.

My prediction is that Spain will find Contador innocent, and he will be back to racing March 2 at Vuelta a Murcia. WADA and the UCI will be facing other legal battles, with UCI trying to defend the existence of the Biological Passport. I've thought all along that WADA would take it to CAS, but I think now that other athletes in other sports will keep that from happening. Even though a rule change wouldn't be retroactive, the chances that CAS would take away a Tour de France victory and millions of Euros in salary to punish someone for something the doping organization no longer believes is a violation are pretty darned slim.

It would be a shame to have people have wasted all that hate, and the cool talk about plasticizers and mystery Astana members spilling the beans to a humor magazine, but some times justice happens.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

I'll guess 1 year, as 2 being more in line with something like +ve for EPO. But if any sanction, my question then is starting when?

 

[Hugh Januss]

25,000 athletes let their Whereabouts blank in ADAMS today as a first protest against WADA.


There's a real possibility that WADA will be pressured to set a minimum that would make 50 picograms a non-positive. There's also a real chance they'll be forced to remove the strict liability. So before this could even go to CAS, the two positives for 50 & 20 picograms might not be considered a violation.





It would be a shame to have people have wasted all that hate, and the cool talk about plasticizers and mystery Astana members spilling the beans to a humor magazine, but some times justice happens.

It was not just "cool talk". If Contador gets off on this one (and I believe at this point he will) then he has dodged a bullet as big as the Uniballer ever did.
You are backing another one that could in the future let you down as much as you now feel Armstrong did. Some people never learn.

 

[Merckx index]

25,000 athletes let their Whereabouts blank in ADAMS today as a first protest against WADA. They want, among other things, to be able to vote athletes to be part of the system.

How many of the 25,000 are cyclists? You know, those athletes who refuse to form a union, who refuse to condemn any of their own when they're busted, yet will never suggest that there is any problem with any test except when it is their positive on the line. Those guys who accepted an IRMS-based test without a peep. Who accepted the HBT without a peep. Who accepted the biopassport without a peep. Those guys who take an every man for himself attitude. Who insist that the only problem with the sport is all the people bad-mouthing it. Who will sign any piece of paper put in front of them.

These are guys who want to be part of the system? Really?

 

[runninboy]

Depending on RFEC's decision, either Contador or UCI/WADA will appeal this case to CAS. In my opinion, the CAS decision will be a 2 year sanction.

cheers to all

I agree. As there is no proof of what he is alleging(tainted beef, even if were true the statistics of no positives in Spanish cattle mean there is an impossible task to counter) He must be held to the standard 2 year suspension that has been handed others in his situation.

 

[TERMINATOR]

25,000 athletes let their Whereabouts blank in ADAMS today as a first protest against WADA. They want, among other things, to be able to vote athletes to be part of the system. They're also going after the legality of strict liability, where athletes who have been found innocent were still punished.]

An athlete who has a banned substance is NOT innocent. Even if they didn't intent to take the substance, they still derived the benefit of the performance enhancing drug. So your definition of innocent is off-base.

 

[TERMINATOR]

There's a real possibility that WADA will be pressured to set a minimum that would make 50 picograms a non-positive. There's also a real chance they'll be forced to remove the strict liability. So before this could even go to CAS, the two positives for 50 & 20 picograms might not be considered a violation.

WADA is not pressured by athletes "voicing" their concern. WADA works for the IOC and the Olympics. Not sure how you think your group is putting "pressure" on WADA to change anything.

You also have no evidence that labs are "contaminating" samples and causing them to test positive for clenbuterol. Why would clenbuterol be singled out and not every other substance?

 

[TERMINATOR]

Since there are two large groups of athletes who are in no trouble for anything pushing to make the changes, and those efforts will be more public as time goes on, I'm done fighting the argument here.

I have yet to meet a professional athlete who is anything but politically apathetic. You make it sound like there's this huge political movement in sport that is somehow putting "pressure" on WADA. I got news for you...there isn't.

Can you name any athlete who has been wrongfully convicted of a clenbuterol positive?

 

[BroDeal]

No way he gets two years. His lawyers will point to the minute level of Clen plus the clean test the day before and argue that it had to be contamination. The level was so small that there was no benefit.

He starts the TdF next near.

 

[TERMINATOR]

My prediction is that Spain will find Contador innocent, and he will be back to racing March 2 at Vuelta a Murcia. WADA and the UCI will be facing other legal battles, with UCI trying to defend the existence of the Biological Passport. I've thought all along that WADA

I seriously question your understanding of the WADA system with this prediction. Even if Spain finds Contador innocent, WADA will appeal. This is guaranteed.

That appeal will take a minimum of 7 months to pan out (putting the case conclusion into August) and that means that Contador will miss the entire 2010 season even if he's ultimately found innocent.

Contador's case is a clear cut positive for the drug. The guy doesn't even have any positive samples of meat from the butcher and WADA went the extra step and tested a bunch of meat samples from the butcher in question (all tested negative).

Contador is being taken for a ride by his lawyers.

Contador will get 2 years (and he deserves it because he's a doper). You must be drunk on the same punch that Bjarne Riis is drinking.

 

[TERMINATOR]

WADA and the UCI will be facing other legal battles, with UCI trying to defend the existence of the Biological Passport. I've thought all along that WADA would take it to CAS, but I think now that other athletes in other sports will keep that from happening. Even though a rule change wouldn't be retroactive, the chances that CAS would take away a Tour de France victory and millions of Euros in salary to punish someone for something the doping organization no longer believes is a violation are pretty darned slim.

What you say is simply not true. WADA has the same clenbuterol positive standard on the books for 2011 as they had last year, as does the UCI. And CAS will not hesitate to take away a Tour victory (as they did with Floyd Landis).

Do you really believe your hype? Contador will get 2 years and lose his 2010 Tour victory. No question about it. This is an open and shut case despite the utter nonsense that Contador's lawyers are spewing. How come Contador lawyers can't seem to have purchased a steak from the same butcher, tested it, and found clenbuterol in it? WADA did, and they all tested negative.

Contador is done - put a fork in him.

 

[TERMINATOR]

How many of the 25,000 are cyclists? You know, those athletes who refuse to form a union, who refuse to condemn any of their own when they're busted, yet will never suggest that there is any problem with any test except when it is their positive on the line. Those guys who accepted an IRMS-based test without a peep. Who accepted the HBT without a peep. Who accepted the biopassport without a peep. Those guys who take an every man for himself attitude. Who insist that the only problem with the sport is all the people bad-mouthing it. Who will sign any piece of paper put in front of them.

These are guys who want to be part of the system? Really?

Sing it, brother.

 

[python]

what has changed ?

what I don’t get is what makes this thread any different from the thousands of posts about the same sameness repeated one hundred thousand times already ?

there are no new facts, no new evidence, no new developments, no wada code revisions to judge any different than 5 month ago..

anyone who cared to sift through the publicly released and confirmed facts (and digested them logically) had known 5 months ago that there are only two realistic possibilities left - it’s either meat contamination or a blood transfusion.

Nothing else. really nothing.

if he manages to show that transfusion probability was 49% vs. contamination 51%, he walks. if it’s the other way around, he goes on vacation.

but people will blather, rant, believe what they want to believe and tell every they definitely ‘know’ what wada will do or will not do.

must be post-christmas blues ?

 

[Dallas_]

what I don’t get is what makes this thread any different from the thousands of posts about the same sameness repeated one hundred thousand times already ?

there are no new facts, no new evidence, no new developments, no wada code revisions to judge any different than 5 month ago..

anyone who cared to sift through the publicly released and confirmed facts (and digested them logically) had known 5 months ago that there are only two realistic possibilities left - it’s either meat contamination or a blood transfusion.

Nothing else. really nothing.

if he manages to show that transfusion probability was 49% vs. contamination 51%, he walks. if it’s the other way around, he goes on vacation.

but people will blather, rant, believe what they want to believe and tell every they definitely ‘know’ what wada will do or will not do.

must be post-christmas blues ?

1: what has changed ? A: nothing

2: what I don’t get is what makes this thread any different from the thousands of posts about the same sameness repeated one hundred thousand times already ?
A: There is a poll attached ie a bit of fun.

3: there are no new facts, no new evidence, no new developments, no wada code revisions to judge any different than 5 month ago..
A: yep totally agree

4: anyone who cared to sift through the publicly released and confirmed facts (and digested them logically) had known 5 months ago that there are only two realistic possibilities left - it’s either meat contamination or a blood transfusion. A: no & yes. Blood transfusion is highly plausible. I have never ever entertained the idea of meat contamination being a realistic possibility.

5: Nothing else. really nothing. A: yep totally agreed

6: if he manages to show that transfusion probability was 49% vs. contamination 51%, he walks. if it’s the other way around, he goes on vacation. A: disagree - AC will be sanctioned at the CAS appeal

7: but people will blather, rant, believe what they want to believe and tell every they definitely ‘know’ what wada will do or will not do. A: agreed

8: must be a post-christmas blues ? A: there is some substance here python - could be guilty of creating the thread after consuming 2 cans of a vodka mix

cheers python

 

[TERMINATOR]

what I don’t get is what makes this thread any different from the thousands of posts about the same sameness repeated one hundred thousand times already ?

there are no new facts, no new evidence, no new developments, no wada code revisions to judge any different than 5 month ago..

anyone who cared to sift through the publicly released and confirmed facts (and digested them logically) had known 5 months ago that there are only two realistic possibilities left - it’s either meat contamination or a blood transfusion.

Nothing else. really nothing.

if he manages to show that transfusion probability was 49% vs. contamination 51%, he walks. if it’s the other way around, he goes on vacation.

but people will blather, rant, believe what they want to believe and tell every they definitely ‘know’ what wada will do or will not do.

must be post-christmas blues ?

This is not true. What Contador needs to show is a positive sample from a piece of meat from the butcher where he got his meat. If he can do that, he will still get 1 year and be DQ'ed from the Tour since it was still in his system.

But everybody knows Contador will be unable to show that (we would have heard about it if his legal team could prove this), and WADA has in fact done what Contador's legal people failed to do: test the meat. WADA's tests showed the meat came up negative.

Contador is getting 2 years. Bet the ranch on it. Contador - like Valverde, Hondo, Kashechkin, etc. - is being taken for a ride by lawyers who think they are going to walk into a CAS hearing with a story of contaminated meat, but not an ounce of proof.

This case is such a no brainer.

 

[python]

terminator you listened to your own broken record too many times

cheers.

and whilst you listen to your own broken record one more time, care to bring links with proven veracity that wada indeed tested the meat and not just sent a chap to ask for certificates. and one more since you know what will happen, you could be a santa. happy holidays !

 

[auscyclefan94]

No way he gets two years. His lawyers will point to the minute level of Clen plus the clean test the day before and argue that it had to be contamination. The level was so small that there was no benefit.

He starts the TdF next near.

He had a banned susbstance in his system. Doesn't matter how much it was. There will be some sort of punishment but I am not sure when it might start.

 

[mwbyrd]

WADA is not pressured by athletes "voicing" their concern. WADA works for the IOC and the Olympics. Not sure how you think your group is putting "pressure" on WADA to change anything.

You also have no evidence that labs are "contaminating" samples and causing them to test positive for clenbuterol. Why would clenbuterol be singled out and not every other substance?

Here's what I don't understand...Landis says or hints at that Clenbuterol has been used for awhile by cyclists. It doesn't seem like it's something hard to prove via tests...

So why all of sudden the high number of positive tests for Clen? What changed? Did the labs start testing for lower amounts and/or 'leaking' this info? Why all of sudden are we hearing about this?

With all the political shennanigans coming to light via the Novitsky case, could the Clen busts be more political than actually 'something new'? Someone is out to get someone and the test results are being leaked?

 

[runninboy]

anyone who cared to sift through the publicly released and confirmed facts (and digested them logically) had known 5 months ago that there are only two realistic possibilities left - it’s either meat contamination or a blood transfusion.

Nothing else. really nothing.

wrong. first of all while "meat" contamination is possible, that is not part of AC's defense. He claims "beef" contamination. Big difference. IMHO as a beef producer clen makes no sense in beef, but does in hogs. sheep & goats.

Also would you care to provide a link to a study where Clenbuterol was used systemically for the production of beef cattle? I have only managed to see mostly reports & studies in regards to the appearance of the drug and its affects, which then ASSUME about the usage by the producer. However as these were all done AFTER slaughter, the health of the animal at the time of injection is unknown, as in the clen was NOT used for carcass modification but in fact to treat a SICKLY animal.

However i have read one controlled British study where the drug was used to modify body composition. Unfortunately it showed that it resulted in a huge loss of fat(over 30 percent) to a minute muscle gain(less than 2percent )which actually resulted in the cattle losing weight overall and being an unproductive agent for purposes of profit.

ADD to this the fact that there have been no positive tests for Spanish cattle, AND that there is no documentation that the drug can go beyond the bovines liver and actually appear in the meat in sufficient quantities to render a positive urine test in the consumer, there exists only one REALISTIC explanation

HE DOPED

 

[runninboy]

. care to bring links with proven veracity that wada indeed tested the meat and not just sent a chap to ask for certificates. !

Well that would be nice but is also unneccessary for the case.
Spain has proven by virtue of its records of testing thousands of cattle that there is no clen used in beef.
It is up to Alberto to prove otherwise.
then he must prove that he consumed tainted beef on the day in question.
and that the amount of said tainted beef would in fact result in the amount of the drug found in his urine....

good luck with that!

 

[sashimono]

What is the deal with Contador? No respect from Bruyneel and Lance. No 2008 invite from the ASO. And now suspended for a nanoinfraction. All while he is one of the greatest cyclists of his generation. Is the guy just a hate magnet? Does he smell really bad? There has to be something behind all this.

 

[sniper]

whatabout the hairtest?

Contador'll get 2 years.
Something as easy as a hairtest could have proven Contador's innocence, as in the Otcharov (the German pingponger) case. Aldirto hasn't supplied such a hairtest.
Or did I miss something?

 

[Dr. Maserati]

25,000 athletes let their Whereabouts blank in ADAMS today as a first protest against WADA. They want, among other things, to be able to vote athletes to be part of the system. They're also going after the legality of strict liability, where athletes who have been found innocent were still punished.

On a separate front, athletes are concerned that labs admit accidental contamination from Clenbuterol is very possible, yet WADA refused to have a minimum threshold for the substance, even though labs are only required to be able to test for 200 picograms. So another group of athletes who have never tested positive for anything are pushing for WADA to set a minimum. That would certainly be above the 50 found in Contador or 80 for Otcharov, the athlete they named.

There's a real possibility that WADA will be pressured to set a minimum that would make 50 picograms a non-positive. There's also a real chance they'll be forced to remove the strict liability. So before this could even go to CAS, the two positives for 50 & 20 picograms might not be considered a violation.

Since there are two large groups of athletes who are in no trouble for anything pushing to make the changes, and those efforts will be more public as time goes on, I'm done fighting the argument here. The rules about Clenbuterol were set by a couple or a few of fallible human beings. It wasn't handed down from a deity that 50 picograms of Clenbuterol in your urine means you were a cheater. If thousands of people have seen enough highly publicized stories about their fellow athletes and are willing to call shenanigans on the people who made the choice, so be it.

My prediction is that Spain will find Contador innocent, and he will be back to racing March 2 at Vuelta a Murcia. WADA and the UCI will be facing other legal battles, with UCI trying to defend the existence of the Biological Passport. I've thought all along that WADA would take it to CAS, but I think now that other athletes in other sports will keep that from happening. Even though a rule change wouldn't be retroactive, the chances that CAS would take away a Tour de France victory and millions of Euros in salary to punish someone for something the doping organization no longer believes is a violation are pretty darned slim.

It would be a shame to have people have wasted all that hate, and the cool talk about plasticizers and mystery Astana members spilling the beans to a humor magazine, but some times justice happens.

"25,000 athletes let their Whereabouts blank in ADAMS today as a first protest against WADA"

Did they?
If they did it is the biggest silent protest in the history of sport. And, yes,I saw the Spanish publication that said this was due to happen (& Pezcycling picked it up too) but I have seen nothing reported to say it went ahead.

Depending on RFEC's decision, either Contador or UCI/WADA will appeal this case to CAS. In my opinion, the CAS decision will be a 2 year sanction.

cheers to all

He should serve one year...... the question is will the Spanish Fed (RFEC) do it because if it is anything less than that I would expect WADA to appeal.


Alessandro Colo - CONI accepted that he ingested Clen accidentallybut he still received a 1 year ban.
Jessica Hardy (swimmer) - was given a 1 year ban by CAS, which upheld an appeal by WADA of the original decision by USADA of 1 year.

However some other athletes have been banned for 2 years -Fuyu Li, Callum Priestley (Athletics) Ouyang Kunpeng, Tong Wen (Judo) and Ouyang Kunpeng (Swimmer) was banned for life.