Over- and underachievers during the last 20 years

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You would have bet the house on Ullrich winning everything in sight for a decade after how he destroyed the 1997 tour. It's like if Egan Bernal never wins another TDF after 2019 or something.
Bernal might actually not win another TdF, i mean with Pogacar being around, Roglic still being good and other random talents (who can TT) like Vingegaard stepping up in the future winning another Tour isnt an easy task and it might not be entirely up to him.

Jan Ullrich however was a massive underachiever, just him being out of form for most part of every season and that focus on the TdF year after year.
How many races could he have won if he stayed in shape from march til october like e.g. Roglic, no doubt in my mind he would have been capable of that physically.
He could have won a lot of monuments and classics as well and Im not only thinking about LBL or Lombardy here. I mean he is best known for having a diesel engine but I think he could have been one of the best puncheurs as well, 2003 he was destroying the field on the ultrashort Waseberg during the Cyclassics in Hamburg with Bettini and Rebellin barely hanging on his wheel.
 
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Bernal might actually not win another TdF, i mean with Pogacar being around, Roglic still being good and other random talents (who can TT) like Vingegaard stepping up in the future winning another Tour isnt an easy task and it might not be entirely up to him.

Jan Ullrich however was a massive underachiever, just him being out of form for most part of every season and that focus on the TdF year after year.
How many races could he have won if he stayed in shape from march til october like e.g. Roglic, no doubt in my mind he would have been capable of that physically.
He could have won a lot of monuments and classics as well and Im not only thinking about LBL or Lombardy here. I mean he is best known for having a diesel engine but I think he could have been one of the best puncheurs as well, 2003 he was destroying the field on the ultrashort Waseberg during the Cyclassics in Hamburg with Bettini and Rebellin barely hanging on his wheel.
Ullrich definitely had a sprint to his name.
 
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Maybe it is sample size related, but mostly I remember Ullrich being there in the end but with someone just better in the 1-day races post Tour when he was certainly in form. Like the above mentioned HEW Cyclassics or Züri Metzgete.

He did win Emilia once, Olympics obviously, maybe some other races, but he probably would not have been a prolific 1-day race winner even in an ideal world.
 
Maybe it is sample size related, but mostly I remember Ullrich being there in the end but with someone just better in the 1-day races post Tour when he was certainly in form. Like the above mentioned HEW Cyclassics or Züri Metzgete.

He did win Emilia once, Olympics obviously, maybe some other races, but he probably would not have been a prolific 1-day race winner even in an ideal world.
Yea small sample size, he only participated in 4 times in monuments, twice of which was MSR.. and never in peak shape. He did the WC few times where he stayed with the best but those were editions were sprinters won.
 
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Yea small sample size, he only participated in 4 times in monuments, twice of which was MSR.. and never in peak shape. He did the WC few times where he stayed with the best but those were editions were sprinters won.
There were like 10 guys maybe left in 99? Probably he wouldn't have been let go like Freire was, but he still was one of the last in the group after.

Edit: and 99 Lombardia was after winning the Vuelta and the ITT Worlds. I think the form was fine there, but I don't remember what happened to Ullrich at that race.
 
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Want to talk about a rider underachieving in hilly classics, Klöden of all people somehow finished 6th in Flèche.
Klöden is a reminder of how much the peloton has changed, at least in some ways. As far as I know, Andreas did nothing outside of act as a domestique at the Tour De France for three straight seasons (2001-03). Can anyone name any rider recently with such a lengthy period of non productivity who has retained his place on a top tier team? I mean even supposedly inconsistent gc riders still put together a top 10 result in a one week stage race or in a one day classic from time to time, don't they?

These days it seems like a riders reputation can be in tatters after being quiet for 3 months, yet Klöden went 3 years, and lived (rather luxuriously) to tell the tale.

Perhaps that is the true definition of a ninja.
 
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Jan Ullrich however was a massive underachiever, just him being out of form for most part of every season and that focus on the TdF year after year.
How many races could he have won if he stayed in shape from march til october like e.g. Roglic, no doubt in my mind he would have been capable of that physically.
He could have won a lot of monuments and classics as well and Im not only thinking about LBL or Lombardy here. I mean he is best known for having a diesel engine but I think he could have been one of the best puncheurs as well, 2003 he was destroying the field on the ultrashort Waseberg during the Cyclassics in Hamburg with Bettini and Rebellin barely hanging on his wheel.
This is why so many people were expecting Ullrich to bring his A game again in 2006 when Pevenage finally sent him to the Giro to train.

From 2000 through to 2005 (with the exception of 2003) Ullrich wasn't ready to start the TDF until the last week. He should have taken at least 1 or 2 Tours during the reign of terror.
 
Klöden is a reminder of how much the peloton has changed, at least in some ways. As far as I know, Andreas did nothing outside of act as a domestique at the Tour De France for three straight seasons (2001-03). Can anyone name any rider recently with such a lengthy period of non productivity who has retained his place on a top tier team? I mean even supposedly inconsistent gc riders still put together a top 10 result in a one week stage race or in a one day classic from time to time, don't they?

These days it seems like a riders reputation can be in tatters after being quiet for 3 months, yet Klöden went 3 years, and lived (rather luxuriously) to tell the tale.

Perhaps that is the true definition of a ninja.
2003
4th GC Critérium International (2.1)
7th GC Tirreno-Adriatico (2.HC)
2nd stage Critérium International (2.1)
5th stage Tirreno-Adriatico (2.HC)
13th Trofeo Cala: Cala Bona - Cala Rajada (1.3)
2002
2nd GC Rothaus Regio-Tour International (2.3)
5th GC Sachsen-Tour International (2.1)
11th GC Critérium International (2.1)
3rd stage Rothaus Regio-Tour International (2.3)
6th stage Paris - Nice (2.HC)
2001
26th GC Tour de France
5th EnBW Grand Prix (1.2)
4th stage Tour de Romandie (PT)
8th GP Eddy Merckx
12th Rund um den Henninger Turm (1.1)

Not like 2000 and he was definitely riding on borrowed time from the 4 year contract he signed in 2000.
 
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This is why so many people were expecting Ullrich to bring his A game again in 2006 when Pevenage finally sent him to the Giro to train.

From 2000 through to 2005 (with the exception of 2003) Ullrich wasn't ready to start the TDF until the last week. He should have taken at least 1 or 2 Tours during the reign of terror.
2000, 2001 and 2003 in my opinion or brought them far closer.
 
2003
4th GC Critérium International (2.1)
7th GC Tirreno-Adriatico (2.HC)
2nd stage Critérium International (2.1)
5th stage Tirreno-Adriatico (2.HC)
13th Trofeo Cala: Cala Bona - Cala Rajada (1.3)
2002
2nd GC Rothaus Regio-Tour International (2.3)
5th GC Sachsen-Tour International (2.1)
11th GC Critérium International (2.1)
3rd stage Rothaus Regio-Tour International (2.3)
6th stage Paris - Nice (2.HC)
2001
26th GC Tour de France
5th EnBW Grand Prix (1.2)
4th stage Tour de Romandie (PT)
8th GP Eddy Merckx
12th Rund um den Henninger Turm (1.1)

Not like 2000 and he was definitely riding on borrowed time from the 4 year contract he signed I. 2000.
'Shadow', maybe you could be my ghost writer for a Klöden biography :)
 
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Landa - underachiever- Just a single podium in GT and 0 wins in major stage races
Carapaz - Overachiever- 1 GT + 2 GT podiums + 1 TOS + ORR with more yet to come
I'm not sure about Carapaz, it's not all about physical capability, isn't it? He always strikes me as having a knack in chosing his timing, not to say that the situation and his relative stature among the contenders often give him advantage, but he still took his chances smartly and had enough in him to hang on to it, not every rider is capable of doing it that often.
 

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