Over- and underachievers during the last 20 years

[Bolder]

If Bernal never wins a Tour again I think it's well likely it's not really underachieving but more overreacting expectations to his initial breakthrough and underestimating the guy who came in behind him.

this, but also injury. I'd say at this point, after his Giro win, he's in line with my expectations.

I think he's capable of winning a number of one day classics, too.

 

[SHAD0W93]

'Shadow', maybe you could be my ghost writer for a Klöden biography

Will I be financially compensated?

 

[gregrowlerson]

Will I be financially compensated?

Of course.

And we'll sell it as EU citizens in an attempt to avoid paying taxes.

 

[42x16ss]

I'm not sure about Carapaz, it's not all about physical capability, isn't it? He always strikes me as having a knack in chosing his timing, not to say that the situation and his relative stature among the contenders often give him advantage, but he still took his chances smartly and had enough in him to hang on to it, not every rider is capable of doing it that often.

Starting to think Carapaz is the new Nibali - GT podium level physical ability combined with a killer racing instinct.

Their skillsets differ slightly, with Nibali's ability to draw handling errors from his opponents vs. Carapaz's ability to handle altitude, but for me they seem to know when to stick the knife in and that's vital too.

 

[Red Rick]

Starting to think Carapaz is the new Nibali - GT podium level physical ability combined with a killer racing instinct.

Their skillsets differ slightly, with Nibali's ability to draw handling errors from his opponents vs. Carapaz's ability to handle altitude, but for me they seem to know when to stick the knife in and that's vital too.

Nibali had roughly a 3 year stretch where he was really up there with the best climbers in the world. He's also won a lot more at high altitude than Carapaz.

We can talk about Contador and Froome crashing out in 2014 but Nibalis Hautacam climbing time with a 10km solo and no real train setting it up is right up there with the 2013 and 2015 Tours.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Nibali had roughly a 3 year stretch where he was really up there with the best climbers in the world. He's also won a lot more at high altitude than Carapaz.

We can talk about Contador and Froome crashing out in 2014 but Nibalis Hautacam climbing time with a 10km solo and no real train setting it up is right up there with the 2013 and 2015 Tours.

That was all about not letting Horner ride away, payback for that Vuelta!

Garzelli could have won a lot more one day races outside of Italy, if he actually raced a bit more outside of Italy.
The could could climb and had an impressive sprint, in 2006 he beat Ciolek, Hondo and Zabel in a bunchsprint to win Eschborn-Frankfurt, or Rund um den Henninger-Turm as it was called back in the day.

 

[lenric]

Fabio Aru. Don't quite know whether I'd classify him as an underachiever, or an overachiever.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Robert Power

 

[yaco]

Robert Power

He was a dominant under 23 rider - He was better than Moscon at that time nd compare their careers.

 

[Red Rick]

Fabio Aru. Don't quite know whether I'd classify him as an underachiever, or an overachiever.

I know. Underachiever 100%.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

We can talk about Contador and Froome crashing out in 2014 but Nibalis Hautacam climbing time with a 10km solo and no real train setting it up is right up there with the 2013 and 2015 Tours.

Yeah, the ultimate showdown "Alien vs Predator vs Shark" was missed that year. Nibali was in form of his life.

 

[BlueRoads]

Nibali had roughly a 3 year stretch where he was really up there with the best climbers in the world. He's also won a lot more at high altitude than Carapaz.

We can talk about Contador and Froome crashing out in 2014 but Nibalis Hautacam climbing time with a 10km solo and no real train setting it up is right up there with the 2013 and 2015 Tours.

Wasn't Nibali like 30 in 2014? Carapaz is only 28...

Really, I don't get this thread in full anyway, but talking about active riders here is

 

[staubsauger]

Fabio Aru. Don't quite know whether I'd classify him as an underachiever, or an overachiever.

Roberto Pistore with a grand tour victory, overachiever personified!

 

[Mayomaniac]

Roberto Pistore with a grand tour victory, overachiever personified!

I think that's a bit harsh. He got the most out of his talent, but had a pretty short oeak as an early bloomer. I wouldn't call him an over-, nor an underachiever, he's somewhere in the middle.

 

[Red Rick]

I think that's a bit harsh. He got the most out of his talent, but had a pretty short oeak as an early bloomer. I wouldn't call him an over-, nor an underachiever, he's somewhere in the middle.

If you get 3 GT podiums and a 5th, and winning 5 mountain stages and winning La Vuelta, then get one more top 10 and a Tour stage then I'd consider that underachieving.

At one point, he was clearly the 5th best GC rider when 3 of the 4 best ones were on the wrong side of 30 and he was 24.

 

[Valv.Piti]

How talented was Aru though? The Vuelta he won in 2015 Id consider weak and I feel Aru was one of those riders that got carried really hard by an amazing Astana squad in those years.

 

[Mayomaniac]

How talented was Aru though? The Vuelta he won in 2015 Id consider weak and I feel Aru was one of those riders that got carried really hard by an amazing Astana squad in those years.

Yeah, even as a climber he was kinda limited, besides that one Andorra stage duting the Vuelta he always suffered on the really hard multi mountain stages and was really vulnerable to cold and rainy weather. I feel that the obsession to be super skinny to be a bit better as a climber made him a worse overall rider.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Underachievers: Rob Power, Louis Vervaecke, Richie Porte, Dani Moreno, Domenico Pozzovivo, Robert Gesink, Ruben Fernandez, Dayer Quintana,

Overachievers: Ryder Hesejdal, Bradley Wiggins, Kasper Aasgreen, Sam Bennett,

 

[staubsauger]

If you get 3 GT podiums and a 5th, and winning 5 mountain stages and winning La Vuelta, then get one more top 10 and a Tour stage then I'd consider that underachieving.

At one point, he was clearly the 5th best GC rider when 3 of the 4 best ones were on the wrong side of 30 and he was 24.

Pals Raimondas Rumsas isn't an underachiever either. Aru, just like Pistore and the Lithuanian never had the necessary talent to archive this results. Hence why he couldn't back them up either. The way he actually ended up with the red jersey thanks to a supreme Astana team almost looks comical!

Pistore had good results in the youth ranks as well. Even won Aosta as well didn't he? Was seen as a talent. 4th at the 1996 Vuelta a Espana. Then the hematocrit value limit was introduced and boom no results to speak of anymore.

Pistore was 4th & 5th at the Vuelta a Espana. Rumsas was 3rd at the Tour de France & 6th at the Giro d'Italia. Won Lombardy though. Aru has won the Vuelta a Espana, finished 2nd at the Giro d'Italia for pr reasons despite his teammate Landa being way stronger. He's an overachiever even compared to those two.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Pals Raimondas Rumsas isn't an underachiever either. Aru, just like Pistore and the Lithuanian never had the necessary talent to archive this results. Hence why he couldn't back them up either. The way he actually ended up with the red jersey thanks to a supreme Astana team almost looks comical!

Pistore had good results in the youth ranks as well. Even won Aosta as well didn't he? Was seen as a talent. 4th at the 1996 Vuelta a Espana. Then the hematocrit value limit was introduced and boom no results to speak of anymore.

Pistore was 4th & 5th at the Vuelta a Espana. Rumsas was 3rd at the Tour de France & 6th at the Giro d'Italia. Won Lombardy though. Aru has won the Vuelta a Espana, finished 2nd at the Giro d'Italia for pr reasons despite his teammate Landa being way stronger. He's an overachiever even compared to those two.

Speaking of Pistore, an Italian guy from his generation who is probably an underachiver is Casagrande. He lacked a bit mental strength and without that crash he'd have been on the podium of the 1998 TdF, that whole Cofidis team was flying...

 

[staubsauger]

Speaking of Pistore, an Italian guy from his generation who is probably an underachiver is Casagrande. He lacked a bit mental strength and without that crash he'd have been on the podium of the 1998 TdF, that whole Cofidis team was flying...

Add 2002 and your point gets even more value.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Add 2002 and your point gets even more value.

Yeah, he could have won that Giro. Besides his mental weakness/being a hothead he also crashed a lot during GTs, 2000-2003 he started 6 GTs and only finished 2 of them...

 

[JosefK]

Remco . . . just kidding. Not gonna kick the hornets' nest today. But for a laugh, it's tempting.

 

[Gigs_98]

If you get 3 GT podiums and a 5th, and winning 5 mountain stages and winning La Vuelta, then get one more top 10 and a Tour stage then I'd consider that underachieving.

At one point, he was clearly the 5th best GC rider when 3 of the 4 best ones were on the wrong side of 30 and he was 24.

This is such an interesting point. When Froome, Contador, Nibali and Quintana were all pretty much peaking at the same time (or with Contador coming towards the end of his peak) Aru looked like the logical successor. Who else was there at the time? I guess Quintana was still young and we couldn't have known that his peak was gonna be so short. Pinot and Bardet were never quite on gc winning level, Dumoulin and Thomas weren't even seen as future gc contenders at the time and the next big talents weren't on the horizon yet. The future was looking so bright for Aru.

Thinking of it, the weird thing is that if Aru had actually kept improving for just one more year going into 2016 there would have been a lot of very winnable gt's for him. It's not like the "big 3" situation in Tennis where Djokovic, Federer and Nadal simply had a much longer peak than anyone anticipated. Aru won his Vuelta in 2015 a year that arguably represents the end of the respective peaks of Nibali, Quintana and Contador (you might argue that Nibali's and Quintana's peaks lasted for another year but whatever) but Aru just couldn't capitalize because his peak ended right then and there too.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

This is such an interesting point. When Froome, Contador, Nibali and Quintana were all pretty much peaking at the same time (or with Contador coming towards the end of his peak) Aru looked like the logical successor. Who else was there at the time? I guess Quintana was still young and we couldn't have known that his peak was gonna be so short. Pinot and Bardet were never quite on gc winning level, Dumoulin and Thomas weren't even seen as future gc contenders at the time and the next big talents weren't on the horizon yet. The future was looking so bright for Aru.

Thinking of it, the weird thing is that if Aru had actually kept improving for just one more year going into 2016 there would have been a lot of very winnable gt's for him. It's not like the "big 3" situation in Tennis where Djokovic, Federer and Nadal simply had a much longer peak than anyone anticipated. Aru won his Vuelta in 2015 a year that arguably represents the end of the respective peaks of Nibali, Quintana and Contador (you might argue that Nibali's and Quintana's peaks lasted for another year but whatever) but Aru just couldn't capitalize because his peak ended right then and there too.

Majka