Paris-Nice 2012 - Stage 5; Onet-le-Chateau - Mende (178.5 km)

[Winterfold]

I think Uran going for the win is a good idea - his little dig today finished off Valverdes chances of the stage win IMO

 

[Swede1]

I think valverde will get the win, but wiggins will lose under 10 seconds to basically seal his win. Leipheimer will probably be a little bit behind wiggins, but not much. TJVG should also go well, but this isnt really his type of climb either. Gerrans might be up there going for it also, although it may turn out to be a little bit too long.

 

[ferryman]

Tour de France 1995, La Croix Neuve (~3.1 Km, 10.1 %)

Pantani, Indurain, Riis : 8:40 (record time)

Stage winner's time might be over 60 secords slower tomorrow (~9:50).

Quote from Wiggins:

“We’ll get to the bottom of Mende and just empty the tank. It’s a 2km climb, about six minutes, it’s pretty simple, really. It’s not a 10-15km climb, where a lot of things can happen,” Wiggins said. “I will empty the tank and we’ll see where that puts me.”

Now, I'm missing something or Brad hasn't been briefed correctly

Full piece here from Velonews:

http://velonews.competitor.com/2012/03/news/wiggins-ready-for-all-takers-on-mende_208464

 

[skidmark]

It's going to be real interesting. Yes, Valverde is the only real specialist in the group of GC guys for this type of climb, so he should have the advantage, but the question is of course how sharp he is after 2 years off. He looks leaner though, so I'd expect his prologue (which would have left him farther back had he not had good weather) to suffer more than his climbing. He should be good, but we won't know until the climb.

Wiggins has never, ever shown well on a climb like this, but he's also never looked as strong as he has in the last few days, in my opinion. Leipheimer isn't suited to this type of climb either, but he's expert at a) limiting his losses and b) annoyingly exceeding expectations when he's in good form. Van Garderen has never shown anything to suggest he's really top tier at this stuff, so I don't expect anything from him, but that won't stop me from hoping his breakout performance is around the corner.

Should be a good one.

 

[search]

for Wiggins everything below 10% feels like riding downhill

but more or less he's right, it's just 2km that really matter. In 2010 Contador attacked with 1,65km to go and at that point of the race even Jens Voigt was still in the front group (he lost 44 seconds that day btw).

 

[Mambo95]

It's going to be real interesting. Yes, Valverde is the only real specialist in the group of GC guys for this type of climb, so he should have the advantage, but the question is of course how sharp he is after 2 years off. He looks leaner though, so I'd expect his prologue (which would have left him farther back had he not had good weather) to suffer more than his climbing. He should be good, but we won't know until the climb.

Wiggins has never, ever shown well on a climb like this, but he's also never looked as strong as he has in the last few days, in my opinion. Leipheimer isn't suited to this type of climb either, but he's expert at a) limiting his losses and b) annoyingly exceeding expectations when he's in good form. Van Garderen has never shown anything to suggest he's really top tier at this stuff, so I don't expect anything from him, but that won't stop me from hoping his breakout performance is around the corner.

Should be a good one.

The thing with Valverde is that it's never really been in his nature to initiate an attack. He tends to jump on other's wheels. (Nothing wrong with that). So if he is to open up significant time he needs someone to do that and follow it thorugh and I'm not sure I can see someone who can help him do that. There's no Contador, Rodriguez or Scarponi here.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

The thing with Valverde is that it's never really been in his nature to initiate an attack. He tends to jump on other's wheels. (Nothing wrong with that). So if he is to open up significant time he needs someone to do that and follow it thorugh and I'm not sure I can see someone who can help him do that. There's no Contador, Rodriguez or Scarponi here.

I don't think he necessarily needs somebody to do that for him - after all, his 2009 Dauphiné win was due to a solo attack a long way out (Szmyd was in the earlier escape that he caught) - but his ability to beat most contenders in a sprint means that as long as he's either in the driving seat or on fairly level pegging with other contenders, he's content to wait for that. Like the aforementioned Dauphiné showing, he's shown that he is capable of attacking, and willing to attack, to gain time, but the situation is different to how he'd like it to be; he HAS TO attack, and he has to make maximum gains, so he can't pick and choose his moment - he has to go as soon as he can and as hard as he can. Decision-making under pressure has never been one of his strongest points (for example, despite having his whole team bar Rodríguez wait for him when he was caught behind a split in the 2008 Vuelta, he then attacked the group being paced by his domestiques and tried to bridge back up first solo and then in a duo with Sylvain Chavanel)...

 

[Mambo95]

I don't think he necessarily needs somebody to do that for him - after all, his 2009 Dauphiné win was due to a solo attack a long way out (Szmyd was in the earlier escape that he caught) - but his ability to beat most contenders in a sprint means that as long as he's either in the driving seat or on fairly level pegging with other contenders, he's content to wait for that. Like the aforementioned Dauphiné showing, he's shown that he is capable of attacking, and willing to attack, to gain time, but the situation is different to how he'd like it to be; he HAS TO attack, and he has to make maximum gains, so he can't pick and choose his moment - he has to go as soon as he can and as hard as he can. Decision-making under pressure has never been one of his strongest points (for example, despite having his whole team bar Rodríguez wait for him when he was caught behind a split in the 2008 Vuelta, he then attacked the group being paced by his domestiques and tried to bridge back up first solo and then in a duo with Sylvain Chavanel)...

But with Szmyd, he worked with him, and if he's to open up a significant gap he may need a similar situation. I wondering who can perform a similar role and is good enough to distance the Sky machine.

As to his decision making, everyone makes mistakes, especially in a panic, but I'd say that was generally a strong point of his. He tends to have a good nose for the right move to follow.

Of course, he may not really have the necessary form and get dropped early doors.

 

[Swede1]

I think movistar will drill it until the climb where rojas will take over and help launch valverde with about 2 k to go. I still seriously doubt valverde taking enough time out of wiggins to be able to win this thing overall.

 

[royalpig180]

I think Valverde should manage to win the stage, but Wiggins appears to be in such good form that I doubt he'll lose any sort of significant time to Valverde here. I imagine he could lose 10 seconds or so if Movistar does well, but even then, with the time bonuses, Wiggins will end up just about tied on time with Valverde. No overall for Alejandro here...

 

[Beech Mtn]

Yeh for Sky its all about minimising losses, Wiggins knows that if he heads into the TT level or even in slight arrears to valverde he should win GC, so time bonuses are fixed and they are only 10 seconds so Wiggins wont be too worried about them as losing only 10 possibly a bit more will still put him in prime position for a GC win, meanwhile if valverde can do damage and put time into wiggins then there may be a whole different story. Uran looked like he was one of the strongest today and so i believe he will given the role of chief domestique and will protect wiggins and try and pull back valverde if and when he attacks.
Of course i still think Wiggins is on good enough form to ride everybody of his wheel, but we'll see.

This is true when it comes to Valverde, but Wiggins' biggest worry should be Leipheimer. Levi is on good form these days, and don't count him out for overall just yet.

And Valv has to put time on more than just Wiggins, he needs to gain on Levi also.

 

[Mambo95]

This is true when it comes to Valverde, but Wiggins' biggest worry should be Leipheimer. Levi is on good form these days, and don't count him out for overall just yet.

I'd agree with that. If I had to bet my savings on someone, I'd probably pick Leipheimer at the moment. I think he'll edge Wiggins in the final TT.

 

[Polish]

The thing with Valverde is that it's never really been in his nature to initiate an attack. He tends to jump on other's wheels. (Nothing wrong with that). So if he is to open up significant time he needs someone to do that and follow it thorugh and I'm not sure I can see someone who can help him do that. There's no Contador, Rodriguez or Scarponi here.

Levi towed Alberto up the mountain a few weeks ago, and Alberto jumped him for the win. Could happen again with Levi and valverde?

 

[hfer07]

Under the right circumstances, this finale suits perfectly a rider like Cunego or Igor Anton- but they seem to be unable to break loose from the nasty phase imposed by Movistar.......
Valverde-on paper & based on recent performances there-is the indisputable favorite to get the stage-I quite can't see him getting a lot of time back from Wiggo, which appears very strong at the moment....

 

[Escarabajo]

Levi towed Alberto up the mountain a few weeks ago, and Alberto jumped him for the win. Could happen again with Levi and valverde?

LOL. What would we do without Polish comments!

 

[Parrulo]

I think valverde will get the win, but wiggins will lose under 10 seconds to basically seal his win. Leipheimer will probably be a little bit behind wiggins, but not much. TJVG should also go well, but this isnt really his type of climb either. Gerrans might be up there going for it also, although it may turn out to be a little bit too long.

is there any type of climb that suits TJVG? i think he is hyped too much as a climber tbh

 

[Swede1]

is there any type of climb that suits TJVG? i think he is hyped too much as a climber tbh

Obviously alpe d'huez

I think he is a pretty good climber, but we really havent seen enough of him yet in top form to judge what type of climber he is. I just assume he is the typical tt specialist/climber/gc rider that rides like levi and wiggo.

 

[greenedge]

Valverde one of Leipheimer/ Chavanel and De Gendt to round out the top 3. Valverde of course to win but by how much?

I think TJVG has the potential to be a better climber than those 2. He definitely seems better on explosive finishes.

 

[Kvinto]

Valverde is the top favourite for this of course and i think Movistar had sort of rest yesterday to put the hammer down today. He won't receive much help from the other teams, i think Taaramae could do very well on this climb, too bad his pre-race illness took its toll striking him off the list of favourites today. I hope Rabobank would like to work for Mollema (the stage doesn't suit L.Sanchez), Euskaltel - for Anton or Lampre - for Cunego, hmm, maybe even Liquigas for Capecchi (the outsidest of all outside bets ). It's also a good stage for Frank Schleck, but he should give his all helping Monfort who is still going for GC. Interesting how will Sky ride, we've seen them great in attacking ride on Malhao earlier this year, today we gonna see what their defensive ride will look like. QST with Leipheimer or BMC with Van Garderen - same as Sky with Wiggo: who will be the best climber among good GC time trialists?

 

[skidmark]

I think TJVG has the potential to be a better climber than those 2. He definitely seems better on explosive finishes.

What results do you base that on? I really can't think of too many explosive climbs I've seen him on to judge that. There is this result from last year that makes me think he's a fast finisher, but I can't think of anything like Mende that would give an indication.

 

[jens_attacks]

Tour de France 1995, La Croix Neuve (~3.1 Km, 10.1 %)

Pantani, Indurain, Riis : 8:40 (record time)

Stage winner's time might be over 60 secords slower tomorrow (~9:50).

times ascents on mende checked by me:

Côte de la Croix Neuve-Mende
2010:3,1 km@10,1%---9:33---average speed 19.48 km/h(Contador-Rodriguez) TdF
2010:3,1 km@10,1%---9:43---average speed 19.14 km/h(Alberto Contador)
2007:3,1 km@10,1%---9:39---average speed 19.27 km/h(Alberto Contador)
2005:3,1 km@10,1%---10:35---average speed 17.57 km/h(Marcos Serrano) from a breakaway
1995:3,1 km@10,1%---9:48---average speed 18.98 km/h(Laurent Jalabert) from a breakaway
---9:03---average speed 20.55 km/h(Marco Pantani)

i couldn't verify this but according to portoleau:
2005: 9:33 armstrong-basso-ullrich-evans

portoleau hasn't an exact time for '95,he says something around 8:40

"Marco Pantani, Miguel Indurain et Bjarne Riis qui en 1995 lors du Tour de France avaient grimpé cette bosse en 8’40’’ environ"

indurain and riis arrived at the top one second behind marco though.but yeah that was insane,motorbikes



i think sky will murder the climb and will not let anybody attack.at the top only wiggins,levi and valverde will be there.probably valverde to win the sprint.

 

[Midnightfright]

I wouldn't be surprised to see an outside contender try something with say 4k to go and win this maybe someone like jeanesson. The only team I see working real hard to stop a break will be movistar for obvious reasons and im unsure there team is strong enough to control the race.

 

[Kvinto]

I wouldn't be surprised to see an outside contender try something with say 4k to go and win this maybe someone like jeanesson. The only team I see working real hard to stop a break will be movistar for obvious reasons and im unsure there team is strong enough to control the race.

FDJ stated before the race, the only leader is Pauriol and the team will work for him, though since they missed the split on stage 2 they may also work for another guy today...

 

[jens_attacks]

i think wiggins wants the win for himself.he's uber strong,he climbs awesome,has a strong team and he acts like he wants to scare all his rivals for tour de france.he might a have a go for the win,you'll see.he has to crack levi because he's too dangerous for col d'eze itt

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

is there any type of climb that suits TJVG? i think he is hyped too much as a climber tbh

exactly. one of so many overrated american talents. phinney is another example