Paris-Nice 2017, 5th-12th March

[Red Rick]

The interesting thing here is that between Purito and Valverde it's Valverde who's got the faster time on the Mur.

Physiologically, everyone has some sort of curve describing the power output and the time to exhaustion. However, cycling is way more complicated than that. It doesn't take into account fatigue, varying gradients, or drag, etc. 3 minutes is the kind of duration where all energy systems are at play, and it makes the difference between the Cauberg and the Mur a whole lot bigger than say Arcalis and the Mortirolo.

 

[El Pistolero]

Re: Re:

Winning Fleche is a totally different "ball game", then doing good in stages like this. Henao was always great in steep finales, like today's, or in Pais Vasco, but he never hits the right form in Fleche, except maybe 2013. He was unlucky though, for the last couple of years. But the point is, to win Fleche, a rider like him must drop all the fast finishers (Valverde, Alaphilippe, Martin, etc) before last 200m, and that's not an easy task at all because all specialists are in their prime, and if Valverde shows up in form of last 2-3 years, well good luck with that! Even the king of the steep hills, Grande Joaquim Rodriguez managed to win this race only once, and I don't think Henao is on his level yet.

Interesting take.

Mostly because in my mind I never distinguish any quality in the finale of FW and I usually look at it like a 3 minute W/kg drag race. Never really considered to what degree the more peak end ability affected the dynamics of the climb. I have no idea how power output varies on a climb like that and I'd like to see

It's what makes Flèche special. There are loads of steep hill finishes, but only one where all of the specialists who can be are there, are all in peak form and are all deadly serious about winning. That said, if he ever gets to race it in top shape, I do think Henao has a similar sort of chance as Martin or Alaphillipe, the small group behind Valverde. Maybe slightly less as he probably has to have a gap at the end or be outsprinted, but certainly a real chance of a sort that few have.

Flèche gives puncheur bragging rights, like Champs Elysee for the sprinters.

If all the best riders were at Flèche Wallonne in their best shape Valverde would have won that race zero times. It's a joke race.

Every time Mur de Huy was included in the Tour Valverde couldn't win. Unlike Flèche, all the best riders are at the tour.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Winning Fleche is a totally different "ball game", then doing good in stages like this. Henao was always great in steep finales, like today's, or in Pais Vasco, but he never hits the right form in Fleche, except maybe 2013. He was unlucky though, for the last couple of years. But the point is, to win Fleche, a rider like him must drop all the fast finishers (Valverde, Alaphilippe, Martin, etc) before last 200m, and that's not an easy task at all because all specialists are in their prime, and if Valverde shows up in form of last 2-3 years, well good luck with that! Even the king of the steep hills, Grande Joaquim Rodriguez managed to win this race only once, and I don't think Henao is on his level yet.

Interesting take.

Mostly because in my mind I never distinguish any quality in the finale of FW and I usually look at it like a 3 minute W/kg drag race. Never really considered to what degree the more peak end ability affected the dynamics of the climb. I have no idea how power output varies on a climb like that and I'd like to see

It's what makes Flèche special. There are loads of steep hill finishes, but only one where all of the specialists who can be are there, are all in peak form and are all deadly serious about winning. That said, if he ever gets to race it in top shape, I do think Henao has a similar sort of chance as Martin or Alaphillipe, the small group behind Valverde. Maybe slightly less as he probably has to have a gap at the end or be outsprinted, but certainly a real chance of a sort that few have.

Flèche gives puncheur bragging rights, like Champs Elysee for the sprinters.

If all the best riders were at Flèche Wallonne in their best shape Valverde would have won that race zero times. It's a joke race.

Every time Mur de Huy was included in the Tour Valverde couldn't win. Unlike Flèche, all the best riders are at the tour.

Everyt ime the Mur de Huy was included in the Tour de France...

A grand total of 1 time.

And all those best riders in the Tour didn't came within 3% of the best time at the Mur de Huy, set by some dude named Alejandro Valverde.

Oops.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

Winning Fleche is a totally different "ball game", then doing good in stages like this. Henao was always great in steep finales, like today's, or in Pais Vasco, but he never hits the right form in Fleche, except maybe 2013. He was unlucky though, for the last couple of years. But the point is, to win Fleche, a rider like him must drop all the fast finishers (Valverde, Alaphilippe, Martin, etc) before last 200m, and that's not an easy task at all because all specialists are in their prime, and if Valverde shows up in form of last 2-3 years, well good luck with that! Even the king of the steep hills, Grande Joaquim Rodriguez managed to win this race only once, and I don't think Henao is on his level yet.

Interesting take.

Mostly because in my mind I never distinguish any quality in the finale of FW and I usually look at it like a 3 minute W/kg drag race. Never really considered to what degree the more peak end ability affected the dynamics of the climb. I have no idea how power output varies on a climb like that and I'd like to see

It's what makes Flèche special. There are loads of steep hill finishes, but only one where all of the specialists who can be are there, are all in peak form and are all deadly serious about winning. That said, if he ever gets to race it in top shape, I do think Henao has a similar sort of chance as Martin or Alaphillipe, the small group behind Valverde. Maybe slightly less as he probably has to have a gap at the end or be outsprinted, but certainly a real chance of a sort that few have.

Flèche gives puncheur bragging rights, like Champs Elysee for the sprinters.

If all the best riders were at Flèche Wallonne in their best shape Valverde would have won that race zero times. It's a joke race.

Every time Mur de Huy was included in the Tour Valverde couldn't win. Unlike Flèche, all the best riders are at the tour.

All of the best riders are not at the Tour and in peak condition, because a substantial minority opt for the Giro as well or instead. But the central problem with your statement is that you are assuming that GC climbers would be better at being puncheurs than the puncheurs if only they tried. They would not be. Some riders can both punch and high mountain climb to a very high level, but they are overwhelmingly already serious about the Ardennes. Most of the guys who are not correctly assume that they can't win except by going long and getting lucky.

 

[Squire]

Re: Re:

Winning Fleche is a totally different "ball game", then doing good in stages like this. Henao was always great in steep finales, like today's, or in Pais Vasco, but he never hits the right form in Fleche, except maybe 2013. He was unlucky though, for the last couple of years. But the point is, to win Fleche, a rider like him must drop all the fast finishers (Valverde, Alaphilippe, Martin, etc) before last 200m, and that's not an easy task at all because all specialists are in their prime, and if Valverde shows up in form of last 2-3 years, well good luck with that! Even the king of the steep hills, Grande Joaquim Rodriguez managed to win this race only once, and I don't think Henao is on his level yet.

Interesting take.

Mostly because in my mind I never distinguish any quality in the finale of FW and I usually look at it like a 3 minute W/kg drag race. Never really considered to what degree the more peak end ability affected the dynamics of the climb. I have no idea how power output varies on a climb like that and I'd like to see

It's what makes Flèche special. There are loads of steep hill finishes, but only one where all of the specialists who can be are there, are all in peak form and are all deadly serious about winning. That said, if he ever gets to race it in top shape, I do think Henao has a similar sort of chance as Martin or Alaphillipe, the small group behind Valverde. Maybe slightly less as he probably has to have a gap at the end or be outsprinted, but certainly a real chance of a sort that few have.

Flèche gives puncheur bragging rights, like Champs Elysee for the sprinters.

If all the best riders were at Flèche Wallonne in their best shape Valverde would have won that race zero times. It's a joke race.

Every time Mur de Huy was included in the Tour Valverde couldn't win. Unlike Flèche, all the best riders are at the tour.

You can't possibly mean that Tejay Van Garderen is the 6th best puncheur in the World?

 

[movingtarget]

Good win by Yates, perfectly timed attack. Yellow jersey will be tested on the next stage.

 

[jaylew]

Re: Re:

Winning Fleche is a totally different "ball game", then doing good in stages like this. Henao was always great in steep finales, like today's, or in Pais Vasco, but he never hits the right form in Fleche, except maybe 2013. He was unlucky though, for the last couple of years. But the point is, to win Fleche, a rider like him must drop all the fast finishers (Valverde, Alaphilippe, Martin, etc) before last 200m, and that's not an easy task at all because all specialists are in their prime, and if Valverde shows up in form of last 2-3 years, well good luck with that! Even the king of the steep hills, Grande Joaquim Rodriguez managed to win this race only once, and I don't think Henao is on his level yet.

Interesting take.

Mostly because in my mind I never distinguish any quality in the finale of FW and I usually look at it like a 3 minute W/kg drag race. Never really considered to what degree the more peak end ability affected the dynamics of the climb. I have no idea how power output varies on a climb like that and I'd like to see

It's what makes Flèche special. There are loads of steep hill finishes, but only one where all of the specialists who can be are there, are all in peak form and are all deadly serious about winning. That said, if he ever gets to race it in top shape, I do think Henao has a similar sort of chance as Martin or Alaphillipe, the small group behind Valverde. Maybe slightly less as he probably has to have a gap at the end or be outsprinted, but certainly a real chance of a sort that few have.

Flèche gives puncheur bragging rights, like Champs Elysee for the sprinters.

If all the best riders were at Flèche Wallonne in their best shape Valverde would have won that race zero times. It's a joke race.

Every time Mur de Huy was included in the Tour Valverde couldn't win. Unlike Flèche, all the best riders are at the tour.

You can't possibly be serious with this post.

 

[dacooley]

frame-up counted. dislike for a particular rider, valverde in that case, sometimes makes people come up with amazing theories.

bertie ftw today. although, i'm not expecting big gaps between him, porte, zaka and alaphilippe.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Toss-up between Sergio, Porte and Contador for me. Contador and Porte are better climbers than Henao, but he just might be in the best shape of them all and has an actual finish. Porte and Contador, I think, is very even, but Porte is behind in the GC which could prove important on the last climb. So Porte victory for me.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Yeah, Porte is my favorite for today as well. He was really strong yesterday and on Mount Brouilly as well and he has the advantage that he's out of GC contention.

 

[Brullnux]

Judging by how the race has gone so far, I say Alaphilippe by one minute

 

[Põhja Konn]

Porte the clear favourite for the stage, unless a break stays away. If Alaphilippe is able to ride smartly, he should retain the yellow, but that's far from sure. Henao should be relatively stronger on muritos than long climbs of today, but he is in top form and might well end up in yellow himself tonight.
Contador will be better than yesterday, but unlikely to either win the stage or turn around the GC.

 

[Poursuivant]

Problem for Alaphillipe is that Contador will light it up early and if Henao goes with him, he could ship big time.

 

[DBotero]

Porte for the stage win.I hope Alaphilippe&Gallopin don't lose too much time today and the GC battle is still open tomorrow.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Toss-up between Sergio, Porte and Contador for me. Contador and Porte are better climbers than Henao, but he just might be in the best shape of them all and has an actual finish. Porte and Contador, I think, is very even, but Porte is behind in the GC which could prove important on the last climb. So Porte victory for me.

Yates should also do well, I expect the yellow jersey to lose some time, Martin should be thereabouts but he can be be pretty hit and miss on mountain stages.

 

[Pantani_lives]

My money's on Henao, my heart's with Alaphilippe.

 

[The Barb]

Porte clearly the one to beat today. Over the odds at $4.

Zakarin the danger. Henao to take yellow.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re:

The interesting thing here is that between Purito and Valverde it's Valverde who's got the faster time on the Mur.

Physiologically, everyone has some sort of curve describing the power output and the time to exhaustion. However, cycling is way more complicated than that. It doesn't take into account fatigue, varying gradients, or drag, etc. 3 minutes is the kind of duration where all energy systems are at play, and it makes the difference between the Cauberg and the Mur a whole lot bigger than say Arcalis and the Mortirolo.

I really hope that Libertine Segeros doesn't see you mentioning Arcalis and Mortirolo in the same sentence

 

[miha-]

Hello

when the first stream will start? Is EuroSport broadcasting today? I do not see any cycling on schedule.


tnx

 

[TourOfSardinia]

Re:

Hello

when the first stream will start? Is EuroSport broadcasting today? I do not see any cycling on schedule.


tnx

UK ES2 Paris Nice follows on after Tir/Adriatico about 16:25 CET according to this page
http://www.eurosport.co.uk/watch-eurosport.shtml#nav_category

 

[AlexNYC]

This stage clearly doesn't suit Alaphilippe, so I expect him to lose time to the likes of Henao, Contador, and Porte. His lead over Henao is large enough that he should be able to keep yellow, especially if Martin can help him.

 

[Bardamu]

Re: Re:

Winning Fleche is a totally different "ball game", then doing good in stages like this. Henao was always great in steep finales, like today's, or in Pais Vasco, but he never hits the right form in Fleche, except maybe 2013. He was unlucky though, for the last couple of years. But the point is, to win Fleche, a rider like him must drop all the fast finishers (Valverde, Alaphilippe, Martin, etc) before last 200m, and that's not an easy task at all because all specialists are in their prime, and if Valverde shows up in form of last 2-3 years, well good luck with that! Even the king of the steep hills, Grande Joaquim Rodriguez managed to win this race only once, and I don't think Henao is on his level yet.

Interesting take.

Mostly because in my mind I never distinguish any quality in the finale of FW and I usually look at it like a 3 minute W/kg drag race. Never really considered to what degree the more peak end ability affected the dynamics of the climb. I have no idea how power output varies on a climb like that and I'd like to see

It's what makes Flèche special. There are loads of steep hill finishes, but only one where all of the specialists who can be are there, are all in peak form and are all deadly serious about winning. That said, if he ever gets to race it in top shape, I do think Henao has a similar sort of chance as Martin or Alaphillipe, the small group behind Valverde. Maybe slightly less as he probably has to have a gap at the end or be outsprinted, but certainly a real chance of a sort that few have.

Flèche gives puncheur bragging rights, like Champs Elysee for the sprinters.

If all the best riders were at Flèche Wallonne in their best shape Valverde would have won that race zero times. It's a joke race.

Every time Mur de Huy was included in the Tour Valverde couldn't win. Unlike Flèche, all the best riders are at the tour.

Every time the Tour de France had a cobblestone stage, neither Boonen or Cancellara won. No way they can be considered the best in this area anymore!

 

[Escarabajo]

Anybody has any stream broadcast for this stage?

 

[portugal11]

Re: Re:

Winning Fleche is a totally different "ball game", then doing good in stages like this. Henao was always great in steep finales, like today's, or in Pais Vasco, but he never hits the right form in Fleche, except maybe 2013. He was unlucky though, for the last couple of years. But the point is, to win Fleche, a rider like him must drop all the fast finishers (Valverde, Alaphilippe, Martin, etc) before last 200m, and that's not an easy task at all because all specialists are in their prime, and if Valverde shows up in form of last 2-3 years, well good luck with that! Even the king of the steep hills, Grande Joaquim Rodriguez managed to win this race only once, and I don't think Henao is on his level yet.

Interesting take.

Mostly because in my mind I never distinguish any quality in the finale of FW and I usually look at it like a 3 minute W/kg drag race. Never really considered to what degree the more peak end ability affected the dynamics of the climb. I have no idea how power output varies on a climb like that and I'd like to see

It's what makes Flèche special. There are loads of steep hill finishes, but only one where all of the specialists who can be are there, are all in peak form and are all deadly serious about winning. That said, if he ever gets to race it in top shape, I do think Henao has a similar sort of chance as Martin or Alaphillipe, the small group behind Valverde. Maybe slightly less as he probably has to have a gap at the end or be outsprinted, but certainly a real chance of a sort that few have.

Flèche gives puncheur bragging rights, like Champs Elysee for the sprinters.

If all the best riders were at Flèche Wallonne in their best shape Valverde would have won that race zero times. It's a joke race.

Every time Mur de Huy was included in the Tour Valverde couldn't win. Unlike Flèche, all the best riders are at the tour.

Every time the Tour de France had a cobblestone stage, neither Boonen or Cancellara won. No way they can be considered the best in this area anymore!

Cancellara didn't win in 2010 because he was working for andy.

 

[HelloDolly]

If Sky & BMC were smart they's work together to get Henao in yellow and Porte the stage