Paris-Nice 2024, March 3-10

[Krzysztof_O]

For Evenepoel an ITT would have been much better than a rainy TTT. Now it will probably be between him and the three leaders of UAE: Almeida, Vine and McNulty. The latter two were beaten by Van Eetveld in the UAE Tour. Almeida is just starting his season.

Eighteen seconds isn't that much to make up for Evenepoel, but the course isn't very tough and UAE has the team to control the race. Bonus seconds won't be enough, so he'll have to attack. Maybe the decision will only come in the final stage.

Rogla won't give up easily. I see him attacking the rest much earlier, maybe even today 20-30 km from the line. Evenepoel has to react then.

 

[Netserk]

The knee jerk reaction is about tradition and resistance to change.

I don't think so. I think it's rather about alienation.

 

[Bolder]

indeed some of my favorite races to watch are really rainy ones where the riders take off their shades. You can understand a lot more about the race by seeing their facial expressions. There will always be someone who looks unbothered by the pace and conditions and soon you see them attack.

The ginormous helmets actually help with that though. When you slap a clear visor on there you can see them just fine, better than with sunglasses in fact. Look at Bilbao today for an example. I suspect the huge foam cap acts as a bit of a visor, blocking direct sun.

As to the NFL --- the average fan knows what Tom Brady looks like and maybe a couple other players on the field. But probably 90% of fans wouldn't recognize 90% of the players. So I don't think there's actually a difference to cycling. Cycling's problem is that the stars don't even look like athletes with the exception of maybe WVA.

If anything, work on getting better camera shots. FWIW, the Paris Nice TTT had some nice camera work between the drone shots and slow-mo close-ups from stationary cameras.

Something was definitely lost when helmets became mandatory. I follow cycling much more than your average sports fan and I could probably only recognize 30 riders in civilian clothes, possibly even less. Same with hockey. I grew up with the NHL in the 70s/80s and most players didn't wear helmets until the mid 80s, so you could really identify the players. At least they have huge numbers on their jerseys.

(and why why why won't cycling teams put their riders' names, at least, in large letters on the back? Hate those rainy stages where everyone's in a black waterproof...)

 

[Lequack]

De Lie is out

https://twitter.com/x/status/1765286606729060453

View: https://twitter.com/lotto_dstny/status/1765286606729060453

 

[frisenfruitig]

De Lie is out

https://twitter.com/x/status/1765286606729060453

View: https://twitter.com/lotto_dstny/status/1765286606729060453

That crash must be bothering him pretty badly, he's been going backwards ever since. Hopefully he can recover in time. Not sure why he even rode that little race instead of doing Kuurne tbh.

 

[shadowrider]

A difficult situation for Evenepoel. Roglic will attack and the four UAE-riders will sit in the wheel of Evenepoel.

As long as Roglic does not take more than 25 seconds, the UAE riders will remain in Evenepoel's wheel. To counterattack at the end, to take time back on Roglic. Evenepoel risks having to let the others ride away. Possible result. Evenepoel will not win Paris-Nice, and the UAE riders still maintain some lead over Roglic. After which they only have to counter Roglic during the last two mountain stages (one of which will probably already be shortened and less difficult). Unless Evenepoel is very strong, but I doubt that without altitude training. The only way to put UAE to work and stay in the wheels himself is to send teammate Van Wilders into the attack. But I doubt whether Van Wilders can really pull away from the favorites.

 

[Boes]

A difficult situation for Evenepoel. Roglic will attack and the four UAE-riders will sit in the wheel of Evenepoel.

As long as Roglic does not take more than 25 seconds, the UAE riders will remain in Evenepoel's wheel. To counterattack at the end, to take time back on Roglic. Evenepoel risks having to let the others ride away. Possible result. Evenepoel will not win Paris-Nice, and the UAE riders still maintain some lead over Roglic. After which they only have to counter Roglic during the last two mountain stages (one of which will probably already be shortened and less difficult). Unless Evenepoel is very strong, but I doubt that without altitude training. The only way to put UAE to work and stay in the wheels himself is to send teammate Van Wilders into the attack. But I doubt whether Van Wilders can really pull away from the favorites.

Roglic will attack.
Have difficulty believing this

I think he'll shadow Remco as his main tactic, at least for now.

 

[Berniece]

Most betting centers are quite sure Evenepoel will win Paris-Nice. Today can already shift the GC a bit, but it'll be mostly waiting until Saturday and Sunday to see big differences.

 

[search]

Going by the interviews from the start, it sounds likely that Saturday's stage can't happen as planed. They are working on an alternative.

 

[Netserk]

Going by the interviews from the start, it sounds likely that Saturday's stage can't happen as planed. They are working on an alternative.

For Saint-Martin or Auron? From what I've seen it will snow during the night and after the stage has finished, so the finish should be doable.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Going by the interviews from the start, it sounds likely that Saturday's stage can't happen as planed. They are working on an alternative.

It was always a matter of time until the 1500m+ Alpine MTFs in the first half of March were going to be a problem, honestly surprised it's taken this long for a cancellation/alteration.

 

[Netserk]

It was always a matter of time until the 1500m+ Alpine MTFs in the first half of March were going to be a problem, honestly surprised it's taken this long for a cancellation/alteration.

Descents will be an issue, but an uphill finish is mostly down to clothing, depending on how harsh the conditions are.

 

[Berniece]

Remco is reading the forum and wants to pour fuel on the fire.

"What the plan is today? Nothing," Evenepoel said before the start. "Team UAE owns the leader's jersey. It is up to them to control. We mainly have to prepare for attacks from other teams. Follow and get through the day well. And then we will see if something will happen at the end. It will be a matter to be well positioned everywhere today, because there are narrow, nervous climbs. And also nervous descents. I expect the hectic pace of day one again. It will be a 'day-long battle'."

And maybe Roglic can become an ally. The Slovenian also has to chase Team UAE: "It would be great if he wanted to cooperate, wouldn't it" Evenepoel laughs. "But if he attacks, I have to be ready anyway. He knows the course here well enough. He must have a plan."

 

[Salvarani]

Remco is reading the forum and wants to pour fuel on the fire.

He just sounds nervous.

 

[Rob5091]

Also, don't tell me that your objection is about safety because you'd laugh at a full face helmet or elbow pads. The knee jerk reaction is about tradition and resistance to change. What we need is a tony hawk of cycling to come along and make pads cool.

Elbow pads make sense, but I don't know how restrictive they would be. I remember back in the 90s on the reluctance of riders to use helmets but the UCI should have one type of helmet for road racing and people can do what the heck they like indoors.
Küng's crash last year -
https://www.cyclingweekly.com/racin...ally-blind-stefan-kung-on-his-horror-tt-crash
"During a time trial I am basically blind, I can only see a few metres ahead due to the position I have to hold and I have to trust the indications that come via radio from the team car."
“We've looked at it again, but it all happened very quickly," he continued. "During a time trial I cover 50/60 metres of road in a few seconds, so if I make a mistake in an instant I'm on the ground without realising it.”

 

[topcat]

Most betting centers are quite sure Evenepoel will win Paris-Nice. Today can already shift the GC a bit, but it'll be mostly waiting until Saturday and Sunday to see big differences.

Are bookies taking bets on whether Roglic will attack?

 

[Tim Cahill]

Come on ASO, one guy with a drone camera, no commentary, it can't be that hard.

 

[tobydawq]

Are bookies taking bets on whether Roglic will attack?

No.

 

[Samamba]

Looks like it's a fast start. Some rain in the mix too.

 

[Samamba]

De Kleijn is like 10min behind, he's probably DNF or OTL today. Kinda as expected.

 

[DNP-Old]

Is De Kleijn worse than Quaranta and Kirsipuu?

 

[shadowrider]

Roglic will attack.
Have difficulty believing this

I think he'll shadow Remco as his main tactic, at least for now.

But Roglic has to attack. Not only to take some time back from Evenepoel, But also almost a minute from the 4 UAE-riders.

Of the four, one or two will always hold up well. I don't think Roglic will be able to take a minute saturday or sunday. So, today he should take already 20 seconds.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Are bookies taking bets on whether Roglic will attack?

Easy money.

 

[ashhutch1997]

It was always a matter of time until the 1500m+ Alpine MTFs in the first half of March were going to be a problem, honestly surprised it's taken this long for a cancellation/alteration.

Yeah, I'd like it if they went back to shorter/low altitude climbs like Mont Faron or even Mende. Then it makes the hilly stages more important rather than one big GC summit finish.

 

[Froome]

Yeah, I'd like it if they went back to shorter/low altitude climbs like Mont Faron or even Mende. Then it makes the hilly stages more important rather than one big GC summit finish.

How about first a big GC summit finish and next 2/3 good medium mountain stages?