Paris-Nice: Stage 3-Cosne-Cours-sur-Loire Nuits-Saint-Georges: 202 km

[El Pistolero]

Id like to see Samuel Sammy Sam Samu Sanchez have a go. Problem is hes possibly the best climber and possibly the best descender there, so he could be left all alone for 20k and he could have bad memories of St Jaunne de Maurrienne.

The best climber over 3 weeks perhaps, but not the best climber in a one week stage race. And certainly not on this course. Not mountainous enough. I don't see him dropping Lulu for example.

Lulu is for sure the third best racer in these one-week stage races.

 

[insideout leadout]

Col de la Mure 7.6k @ 8.3 % on thursday.

imo enough to drop lulu.

 

[Anonymous]

Haussler FTW

 

[El Pistolero]

Col de la Mure 7.6k @ 8.3 % on thursday.

imo enough to drop lulu.

By a few seconds perhaps, but no big gaps, Lulu rarely gets dropped in Paris-Nice except by El Imbatido and El Dynamitero.

Lulu will put some bigger gaps into Samu on other stages.

Mende is a 3km climb @ 10% and Lulu finished in fourth place, 8 seconds behind Samu last year(and this time Samu doesn't have Valverde to pace him up the climb). Col de la Mure is longer, but a bit less steep, so I don't see any big differences. Lulu will still be the main favorite for the GC. Tony Martin on the other hand will lose more than a minute on a climb like that.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Col de la Mure 7.6k @ 8.3 % on thursday.

imo enough to drop lulu.

It's that, the 4 and half kms of Col d'Eze against a 27km ITT.
I know which my money is on.
Heck, even Bottle or the Freiburg Phantom could take this GC.
The ASO have got a FAIL for this edition.

 

[Moncoutie]

Shame the star of the show had to abandon yesterday, but hopefully we'll see something from Vino today.

 

[theyoungest]

Col de la Mure 7.6k @ 8.3 % on thursday.

imo enough to drop lulu.

Usually it's Lulu who drops SamSan in Paris-Nice, not the other way around.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

How many km left ?

 

[Ferminal]

Everybody seems to be in denial. Sky will win...Geraint Thomas with a late attack inside the last k.

Is that you Dave?

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

no live coverage here... anyone know where they are at on the course?

 

[insideout leadout]

By a few seconds perhaps, but no big gaps, Lulu rarely gets dropped in Paris-Nice except by El Imbatido and El Dynamitero.

Lulu will put some bigger gaps into Samu on other stages.

Mende is a 3km climb @ 10% and Lulu finished in fourth place, 8 seconds behind Samu last year(and this time Samu doesn't have Valverde to pace him up the climb). Col de la Mure is longer, but a bit less steep, so I don't see any big differences. Lulu will still be the main favorite for the GC. Tony Martin on the other hand will lose more than a minute on a climb like that.

Depends on how hard they go. Samuel can of course drop lulu as you pointed out from last year but it wont be by much. 19 seconds last year.

Edit: lulu finished 9th 19 seconds back SS.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Looks like we are in for the duration.
35.3 kms were covered in the second hour of the stage. The overall average speed is 36.25 kph
Still 122kms to go, so finish around 17-30CET..........or later.

 

[Frosty]

no live coverage here... anyone know where they are at on the course?

http://www.letour.fr/us/homepage_coursePNC.html

 

[Ferminal]

no live coverage here... anyone know where they are at on the course?

letour.fr front page says 81.2km down 120.8km to go. Five have a lead of 4'35".

Yeh MV was just thinking that... Sleep vs potentially boring stage/live betting opportunities.

 

[insideout leadout]

Tommy Voeckler might like this stage as well...if he can follow vino.

 

[L'arriviste]

letour.fr front page says 81.2km down 120.8km to go. Five have a lead of 4'35".

Yeh MV was just thinking that... Sleep vs potentially boring stage/live betting opportunities.

Those breakaways are:

Cédric Pineau (Fra - FDJ)
Blel Kadri (Fra - ALM)
Jussi Veikkanen (Fin - OLO)
Cyril Gautier (Fra - EUC)
Romain Hardy (Fra - BSC)

 

[TeoSheva]

Tony Martin on the other hand will lose more than a minute on a climb like that.

Are you sure? I don't think so... and I will say more: Tony Martin already gave 30 sec to Lulu during the crono of the Vuelta ao ALgare... this chrono is even longer... so it will be funny to see what's going to happen...

 

[insideout leadout]

Martin isn't that less of climber compared to lulu. I think he will hang on just fine as long as the real climbers don't put the hammer down.

 

[Ferminal]

Are you sure? I don't think so... and I will say more: Tony Martin already gave 30 sec to Lulu during the crono of the Vuelta ao ALgare... this chrono is even longer... so it will be funny to see what's going to happen...

He also took time out of LLS on the toughest day... that isn't going to happen against an inform LLS trying to win P-N.

 

[El Pistolero]

Depends on how hard they go. Samuel can of course drop lulu as you pointed out from last year but it wont be by much. 19 seconds last year.

Edit: lulu finished 9th 19 seconds back SS.

You're right, I had mistaken him with Purito.

But still, 19 seconds is nothing as Samu will lose more time on other stages. And like I said, it's less steep, Lulu doesn't like the super steep stuff and Mende is a very special climb. I can see him lose up to 30 seconds, but not more. And Lulu can and will take time on other stages.

 

[El Pistolero]

Are you sure? I don't think so... and I will say more: Tony Martin already gave 30 sec to Lulu during the crono of the Vuelta ao ALgare... this chrono is even longer... so it will be funny to see what's going to happen...

Yes, and he also beat Contador at Algarve, but we all know that doesn't say all that much

Though, I wouldn't mind if Tony Martin won, he deserves a big win. Being second best tt specialist must suck. I just highly doubt he will win.

ps: Sporza will go live in 45 minutes.

 

[search]

Though, I wouldn't mind if Tony Martin won, he deserves a big win. Being second best tt specialist must suck. I just highly doubt he will win.

yesterday he was part of the train for Goss again, usually a very bad sign in regards of overall-ambitions.

 

[TeoSheva]

Yes, and he also beat Contador at Algarve, but we all know that doesn't say all that much

Though, I wouldn't mind if Tony Martin won, he deserves a big win. Being second best tt specialist must suck. I just highly doubt he will win.

thay can race another time at Algarve: Martin will again beat Contador

the Paris Nice is a little bit more difficult... but there is a longer ITT... and, once more, we will have fun

 

[El Pistolero]

Martin isn't that less of climber compared to lulu. I think he will hang on just fine as long as the real climbers don't put the hammer down.

Lulu won 2009 on a much more mountainous course. Lulu was second in 2010(not counting Valverde) and Contador isn't racing.

Trust me, he's the main favourite.

Lulu can climb a lot better than Martin. He's just not good after 2 weeks of climbing. He needs to do it in the one week stage races.

 

[theyoungest]

Depends on how hard they go. Samuel can of course drop lulu as you pointed out from last year but it wont be by much. 19 seconds last year.

Edit: lulu finished 9th 19 seconds back SS.

Take the Montagne de Lure, in Paris-Nice 2009. It's not as steep as the Col de la Mur, but it's twice as long. LLS handily beat SamSan on that one. Paris-Nice is not really about pure climbing ability, more about suffering.