Paris-Nice: STAGE 4 - Maurs -Mende 173.5 km

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Francois the Postman

Francois the Postman

Oct 29, 2009
2,578
0
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theswordsman said:
My picks for the first three across the line:
Alberto Contador
Official race vehicle
Astana team car

commercial break
a handful of GC guys
Click to expand...

Add me to the long list of wit admirers :)

I'm actually going with Rodriguez for the win tomorrow. For no other reason than that he stayed well ahead of Contador going up the short hill, and maybe even slightly increased the gap to Contador after Contador briefly accelerated to close the gap.

Contador was either not trying (granted, likely with the top within cruising distance), or maybe missing some longer thunder if he kicks hard for whatever reason (still feeling the after effects of his crash?).

Will be a very different story tomorrow, but if Joaquim can bite on, and follow him uphill long enough, maybe Contador, for whatever reason, will let him have it. I just hope Rodriguez is hungry enough. I think he just might have the legs.

And picking Contador is like saying that the finish is uphill.
 
Publicus

Publicus

Mar 17, 2009
11,341
1
22,485
Francois the Postman said:
Add me to the long list of wit admirers :)

I'm actually going with Rodriguez for the win tomorrow. For no other reason than that he stayed well ahead of Contador going up the short hill, and maybe even slightly increased the gap to Contador after Contador briefly accelerated to close the gap.

Contador was either not trying (granted, likely with the top within cruising distance), or maybe missing some longer thunder if he kicks hard for whatever reason (still feeling the after effects of his crash?).

Will be a very different story tomorrow, but if Joaquim can bite on, and follow him uphill long enough, maybe Contador, for whatever reason, will let him have it. I just hope Rodriguez is hungry enough. I think he just might have the legs.

And picking Contador is like saying that the finish is uphill.
Click to expand...

For what it is worth, AC said he wasn't going for the win today, he just didn't want to lose anymore time to the other GC candidates. Frankly, I think he was just testing his leg to see how it felt ahead of tomorrow. I'm curious to see if Rodriguez can stay with him when he launches from 2KM away. It's one thing to stay with him for 500 meters on a climb, it's quite another to do it for 2KM+.

Also, given that there are time bonuses, I doubt seriously he will be gifting anyone, anything tomorrow
 
python

python

Sep 25, 2009
7,527
1
0
Francois the Postman said:
Add me to the long list of wit admirers :)

I'm actually going with Rodriguez for the win tomorrow. For no other reason than that he stayed well ahead of Contador going up the short hill, and maybe even slightly increased the gap to Contador after Contador briefly accelerated to close the gap.

Contador was either not trying (granted, likely with the top within cruising distance), or maybe missing some longer thunder if he kicks hard for whatever reason (still feeling the after effects of his crash?).

Will be a very different story tomorrow, but if Joaquim can bite on, and follow him uphill long enough, maybe Contador, for whatever reason, will let him have it. I just hope Rodriguez is hungry enough. I think he just might have the legs.

And picking Contador is like saying that the finish is uphill.
Click to expand...
the way i read the situation (bolded) - contador was marking only rodriguez and no one else. when rodriguez went contador went too but in a measured fashion to make sure he did not drag anyone. controlled power that’s just awesome when unleashed.

in my mind the only question is whether astana will set berto for a long attack up côte de chabrits - to gain maximum time, or one final violent kick up mende. i suspect it will be the former.

as much as i love jens and predicted him doing well on the final 1k lump in stage 3, i don’t see him doing well up mende. .. hes too big for the 3k, 10% wall.
 
Francois the Postman

Francois the Postman

Oct 29, 2009
2,578
0
0
Publicus said:
For what it is worth, AC said he wasn't going for the win today, he just didn't want to lose anymore time to the other GC candidates. Frankly, I think he was just testing his leg to see how it felt ahead of tomorrow.
Click to expand...

That's kinda how I took it too, but there have been a couple of moments when he has fallen away a bit quicker than I expected over the last few races that I saw. And he's shown his might on a couple of other occasions. I expect he wants to show something tomorrow, but he doesn't strike me as having the legs all the time, so far. [edit:] If he had, I would have expected him to close the gap on that pesky wee hill with the top within touching distance just to strike the fear of God in people, in this race and riding elsewhere. Boom planted one such jump on stage 1 and people mentioned it every day since. Headology works.

I'm curious to see if Rodriguez can stay with him when he launches from 2KM away. It's one thing to stay with him for 500 meters on a climb, it's quite another to do it for 2KM+.
Click to expand...

Yup. One of the things I am expecting this year from a Bruyneel free zone, is the attacking instinct from Contador to shine a bit brighter. I'm curious too, but so far Rodriguez has impressed me. Dead keen to see tomorrow. I was even wondering if Caisse's no show today was with tomorrow in mind too. I tend to live in hope.

Also, given that there are time bonuses, I doubt seriously he will be gifting anyone, anything tomorrow
Click to expand...

I only found out about the time bonus after I had written that. Yeah, scrap that.
 
F

Frosty

Jun 25, 2009
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What are the chances of a breakaway staying away if the guys involved are a long way down? I wouldnt have thought that Voigt would want to chase them down as they could take the bonus seconds. Conty should have enough to take the lead even without the bonus seconds though. Will conty or rodriguez want to make their teams chase hard just for a few bonus seconds bearing in mind they will need team-mates for the next few stages too?
 
F

Frosty

Jun 25, 2009
3,234
2
13,485
Although he isnt going to win, it could be interesting to see how Peraud, the MTB convert, goes today. He wasnt that far back on the steep climb in the Algarve that Contador won.
 
Jamsque

Jamsque

Mar 11, 2009
5,841
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Come on guys, save it for the podium contest thread.

I wonder if today Frank will get to the front and test himself against the rest, he has been pretty anonymous so far this race.
 
M

Mellow Velo

Mar 11, 2009
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For some reason, we are on an early schedule, today. Must be due to a transfer or something.
Anyhow, feeds should be up half an hour earlier.
Any reports of snow?

Had a look and some light snow is forecast for later in the day....
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Mellow Velo said:
For some reason, we are on an early schedule, today. Must be due to a transfer or something.
Anyhow, feeds should be up half an hour earlier.
Any reports of snow?

Had a look and some light snow is forecast for later in the day....
Click to expand...

Yes, Ted King has already twittered the now-obligatory "team cars covered in snow" pre-race photo.
 
S

saxofan

Sep 21, 2009
11
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I think maybe a Chris Anker Sørensen could win this stage? It is time for saxo bank to actually win somthing this year! And maybe, with some luck, Jens can hold on to the yellow jersey :)
 
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