Paris-Nice Stage 6: Rognes - Aix-en-Provence (ITT) 27km

[Mellow Velo]

So the big difference is just Martin, right?

Without him, we have:

Andreas Kloden as Alberto Contador
Bradley Wiggins as Alejandro Valverde

I'm not sure where to go with this.
Certainly, we have a different type of rider!

 

[Jamsque]

Generally I agree but particularly in this race there might be to many people who would rather defend than to risk losing their top 10 position. There are no typical attackers in the top 10. Perhaps Samuel Sanchez and Tondo will have a go but I fear the rest will just ride defensively.

I think you're right, if someone within 2 minutes attacks we'll have HTC, Radioshack and Sky chasing hell for leather until they bring them back. Anyone who wants to make time will need a team-mate who can blow the field apart and get rid of the domestiques. If KK hadn't shat the bed in the ITT that's exactly what I'd expect to see Vino doing.

 

[patrick767]

I think the race could still be interesting the next two days, but the teams with riders still in contention must be willing to attack hard and I'm not sure they are. There are some tough climbs but without a mountain top finish any gaps they can open will be harder to maintain.

Just how good of a climber is Martin? Is he Kloden's equal? Being Kloden's equal in a one on one climb might not be enough though. I would think from a team perspective, if the Shack wants to push hard the trio of Brajkovic, Leipheimer, and Kloden could really put the pressure on Martin. Will they do it or hold back to try to keep all three riders in the top ten? I'm not sure which result is better for the team.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Since Bruyneel is banned, maybe we'll see them try and win the race. If he was there, no way.

Too many riders in the top 10 are riders who are happy to consolidate what they've got rather than risk it all (the archetypal strong-TT GC rider), and the stages remaining aren't tough enough for those who've lost the best part of 2 minutes to win that all back.

 

[El Pistolero]

Hope Klöden wins, but doesn't really matter to me. Paris-Nice last year and the year before were way more interesting.

 

[kurtinsc]

Since Bruyneel is banned, maybe we'll see them try and win the race. If he was there, no way.

Too many riders in the top 10 are riders who are happy to consolidate what they've got rather than risk it all (the archetypal strong-TT GC rider), and the stages remaining aren't tough enough for those who've lost the best part of 2 minutes to win that all back.

I guess we have to hope someone close enough to the people defending a top 10 attack.

My gut says RS will prefer 2nd/6th/7th to 1st/14th/17th and will ride that way. But if 2-3 guys who can challenge the 6th and 7th spots get up the road on stage 8... they'll have to push the pace. Perhaps while doing so they'll attempt to drop Martin.

 

[Squire]

My gut says RS will prefer 2nd/6th/7th to 1st/14th/17th and will ride that way.

History shows you're probably right, but why on earth? No-one remembers 6th and 7th in Paris - Nice, and 1st is remembered a lot longer (and gets more publicity) than 2nd. Besides, all professional sport is really about winning.

 

[Mellow Velo]

The one thing that might still turn this race on it's head is the weather.
It may get a bit "slick", tomorrow.
Sunday looks positively foul.

 

[theyoungest]

The one thing that might still turn this race on it's head is the weather.
It may get a bit "slick", tomorrow.
Sunday looks positively foul.

TGBM weather!

 

[kurtinsc]

History shows you're probably right, but why on earth? No-one remembers 6th and 7th in Paris - Nice, and 1st is remembered a lot longer (and gets more publicity) than 2nd. Besides, all professional sport is really about winning.

Well, I'm not sure about in the past, but in today's cycling those points matter for holding on to a pro-tour spot.

I don't know how the points differ between the CQ rankings and what the UCI uses to hand out spots, but if they're similar then 6th + 7th net 204 points. If you drop to 15th and 16th, that 204 turns into 65. Winning the race vs 2nd is going from 180 to 240.

 

[janraaskalt]

Well, I'm not sure about in the past, but in today's cycling those points matter for holding on to a pro-tour spot.

I don't know how the points differ between the CQ rankings and what the UCI uses to hand out spots, but if they're similar then 6th + 7th net 204 points. If you drop to 15th and 16th, that 204 turns into 65. Winning the race vs 2nd is going from 180 to 240.

You might be right, but the reason to get a Pro Tour license is to be able to win those great races.

 

[Winterfold]

We need more people like Martin who can blow everyone away in the ITTs and can potentially hang on in the mountains so that the climbers are forced to attack every now and then at the Tour. And we need more ITT kms.

+1 recent races are characterised more by climbers Not attacking than ITT riders sneaking wins

If wiggins and Martin can hang on in mountains then it forces more aggressive racing from the climbers and that can only mean morexexciting races

 

[El Pistolero]

+1 recent races are characterised more by climbers Not attacking than ITT riders sneaking wins

If wiggins and Martin can hang on in mountains then it forces more aggressive racing from the climbers and that can only mean morexexciting races

Have you watched Paris-Nice 2007, 2009 and 2010?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Indeed, while that sounds nice in theory, the reality is, as El Pistolero points out, the races without such a TT have been far more interesting than this edition

 

[Lanark]

Outside of the Birth of Peter Sagan, last year was not that special either. 2008 was much better.

 

[ingsve]

Indeed, while that sounds nice in theory, the reality is, as El Pistolero points out, the races without such a TT have been far more interesting than this edition

Well, isn't that more because of the profile of the other stages rather than the presence of the ITT stage. All the other stages are nowhere near as interesting as the stages in the last few years. There is no MTF on a cat 1 hill or anything that's really close to that so putting all the blame on the ITT stage is a little unfair I think.

 

[William H]

Well, isn't that more because of the profile of the other stages rather than the presence of the ITT stage. All the other stages are nowhere near as interesting as the stages in the last few years. There is no MTF on a cat 1 hill or anything that's really close to that so putting all the blame on the ITT stage is a little unfair I think.

Paris-Nice is best off without either a really big mountain top finish or a TT longer than a prologue. These are blunt instruments, which discourage attacking riding, because everyone knows the race will be decided there.

 

[Cobblestoned]

Since Bruyneel is banned, maybe we'll see them try and win the race. If he was there, no way.

Too many riders in the top 10 are riders who are happy to consolidate what they've got rather than risk it all (the archetypal strong-TT GC rider), and the stages remaining aren't tough enough for those who've lost the best part of 2 minutes to win that all back.

New species of rider, no attacking strong-TT-GC-rider that don't have to climb and just do good TT to win a stagerace with prestige.
Wonder why Tony wasted so much energy yesterday, and why he possibly has to waste so much energy on next 2 stages, if one TT is enough.
Also wonder where this other new species, called strong-mountain-GC-riders that don't have to TT, was yesterday.
Anyone from these mountaingoats was not allowed to attack that other new species ? No
Perhaps possible that you have to be in shape to win a stagerace ? Yes
Yesterday I saw many riders/climbers that are not in good shape. And it would have even got worse for them if there were a few km more of climbing ? Yes
Even with few km less of TTing ? Yes
Is that correct ? Yes

Like you said in your post before (where you definately turn in circles like few others), it is of course 1000x more interesting to see Alberto dancing the pedals for 2 km and deciding the stagerace.

But I would never say that he just won cause he can climb. He also has to do a good TT to win a stagerace. May it be just 8km of prolog. You can lose over a minute there and won't win P-N then.
Like it makes no sense to say that Tony just wins because he only did/can a good TT.
Stageraces are always decided by the best combination of climbing and TT - and it will always be like that. Great that we do not see same stages and design every f****** year.
More climbing doesn't even help any possible mountaingoat or desperate attacker that is out of shape.

But the most important thing, don't know if some people missed, the race it not over yet.

Just to add, that too early congratulations might result in misfortune. Old German saying.

 

[taiwan]

Paris-Nice is best off without either a really big mountain top finish or a TT longer than a prologue. These are blunt instruments, which discourage attacking riding, because everyone knows the race will be decided there.

This is true. A long TT or an MTF will discourage racing for the rest of the time, and cause predictability. If the parcours is challenging enough, there should be the opportunity to win or lose the race without those. In theory.

 

[The Hitch]

Outside of the Birth of Peter Sagan, last year was not that special either. 2008 was much better.

Disagree.

Prologue was close and good.
Jens taking the jersey was good.
Stage Tondo won was amazing.
Stage to Mende with COntador beating Purito was great
Stage Pit lls combo tried to separate Contador was great too.

What was that about peter something

 

[Libertine Seguros]

New species of rider, no attacking strong-TT-GC-rider that don't have to climb and just do good TT to win a stagerace with prestige.
Wonder why Tony wasted so much energy yesterday, and why he possibly has to waste so much energy on next 2 stages, if one TT is enough.
Also wonder where this other new species, called strong-mountain-GC-riders that don't have to TT, was yesterday.

On a parcours that doesn't give them any real opportunities to gain time, it's no surprise we didn't see much from them.

As I said before, you need to find a compromise. If you're putting in 25-30km of TT, then you could do with some more challenging mountains to balance it out.

Yes, there are too few TT kms in the Grand Tours this year. But that doesn't mean we should overcompensate by turning all the great short stage races into the 2009 Tour de Suisse.

 

[Cobblestoned]

Well, isn't that more because of the profile of the other stages rather than the presence of the ITT stage. All the other stages are nowhere near as interesting as the stages in the last few years. There is no MTF on a cat 1 hill or anything that's really close to that so putting all the blame on the ITT stage is a little unfair I think.

Yesterday came really close to a MTF. Perhaps you should have a look again.
Finish was few km behind that freaky Col de la Mûre (7.6 km/ 8.3 %), uphillfinish following.
Riders in shape would have been in front anyway. Same riders.
Besides that, riders make race hard, not the stage.

When Samy says yesterdays race was hard, then it was hard and no rolling up the mountain.
They can tranquillo anywhere, and they can attack anywhere.
But you are right. Don't blame it on TT.

TT is for the real men and everyone should respect that.

For me, real joke and issue was to see Cancellara win the TdS.
This is something that should never happen again. All Suisse mountains were suddenly gone.
They took away all the mountains with some dippers or flatted them with some Raupenbaggers for him, and put them back again when race was over.

THIS was something that shouldn't be.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Cedric Vasseur's twitter:

Highlight of the week - Tommy de Gendt, who has been a revelation.
Disappointment of the week - BMC who have been totally non-existent since the start.

Lets define dissapointing Cedric

dissapointment:failing to meet expectations

Cedric, what expectations did you really have? Dissapointment is measured on a scale as it is a comparitive word.

From that clip ACF posted I understand they had Brent Bookwalter as one of their two team leaders for this race. What were they thinking? The other leader Morabito has been disappointing, but Bookwalter simply isn't good enough for this stuff.

From the start they had no specific leader but had guys such as Moinard, Santaromita, Morabito and bookwalter.

Morabito, who would of been seen as the main leader, he's had a back injury who didn't start the tt yesterday, Bookwalter is a tt specialist - not a climber (he's not bad at it though), Santaromita who lost out in the cross winds but I'm not sure what is up with Moinard.

 

[maltiv]

what expectations did you really have?

Well I think that it is to be expected by a ProTour team to actually send a somewhat competitive team to Paris-Nice.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Yesterday came really close to a MTF. Perhaps you should have a look again.
Finish was few km behind that freaky Col de la Mûre (7.6 km/ 8.3 %), uphillfinish following.
Riders in shape would have been in front anyway. Same riders.
Besides that, riders make race hard, not the stage.

Yes, but in a REAL MTF, then the climbers can make even a small attack near the top and gather just a few seconds and maybe bonus seconds - only a few but it's enough to give them a chance of defending if they pull out a good TT. Likewise, the likes of Martin are clearly on good form, and they wouldn't have put minutes into him, but they could have perhaps taken 10-15 seconds with a late attack if it took his diesel power some time to heat up (think like Schleck on Morzine). Add the bonus seconds and you have something you can defend. But even with just 9km to the finish, is it worth attacking in the final 1-200m of the climb when the group will pull you back?

Yes, Martin may still have taken over a minute in the ITT, but then his advantage may have seemed a bit more fragile.

Tomorrow's stage is a 2009 Tour level unfunny joke, with about 60km from the mountains to the finish. Bunch sprint likely.