Cerberus said:
And then if Contador wins, which is the most likely, you'll have lost 250$. I don't bet for a very simple reason: The bookmakers tend to know more than I do, and they put enough slack into their odds, that even if some of you do in fact know more about cycling than they do, you still won't turn a profit.
I'm prepared to lose that 250.
And in anycase, I have made a profit over the last year.
To make a profit in cycling betting, you bet live.
For example.
Tour of Qatar - Stage 2.
Mol and Steurs in a 2 man break. 30km to go, 10 minutes on the peloton. Peloton split into 3. Both $8.
Back them both, you come out with a profit because they were never going to be caught.
Another example.
Tour of Qatar - Stage 4 or 5. Haussler over Farrar @ $1.90. Farrar, at the time, had a puncture and the winds were strong so he was off the back and was never going to contest the sprint. A bonus to this was he had another puncture not long after, and was out of contention. Haussler was in contention. Back Haussler, you win.
A further example.
Kuurne-Bruxells-Kuurne
3 were in the lead. The peloton were split. Thor Hushovd had 8 people with him. They were dropping off one by one. 40km to go. Heavy rain, heavy wind. Peloton breaking up, half of them would have pulled out (and they did). Hushovd group couldn't make the numbers. He was decreasing in numbers and was never going to catch them. They were over a minute up on the Hushovd group.
Odds at that stage:
Traksel $34
Flens $34
Stannard $28
Hushovd $4
All you needed was to put $10 on those first three and risk losing $30 to gain a profit of a couple hundred bucks. You could have put $10 on Hushovd and if it got up, you would have got your money back.
Also during KBK, there was a head to head. Someone crashed and was in pain, and he was up against someone else that was in the Hushovd group, his team-mate. I forget the guys name. You back the guy that didn't crash. I mean, if both don't win the stage, you get your money back. In those conditions, the guy that crashed was always going to pull out so you couldn't lose. You just needed to hope the other guy made it to the finish to win. If he didn't, you would have got your money back.
You wait for the situation to arise - and trust me, if you're patient enough, something will happen.
That's just three of many examples I have noticed over the last 12 months in doing live betting.
Live betting is the way to go. However, I can afford to lose $250, so it doesn't bother me if I lose $250 if Contador gets up to win. I will make a profit if one of them wins. That's enough for me.
You wait for the situation to arise and you be patient. If you can spare a couple hundred, you wait for long odds like this that can go in your favour. As it turns out, I thought the odds would have been Contador 2-3 and Valverde 3-4. Not Valverde at 6.50.
You can make a profit on cycling if you are smart about it and asses the risks.
If push comes to shove and you are worried about losing $250, you can always whack $200 on Contador.
20 on Kreuziger @ $19 - -$60
20 on Martin @ $41 - +$370
100 on Valverde @ $6.50 - +$210
100 on Sanchez @ $8.00 - +$340
200 on Contador @ $2.00 - -$40
So you can always hedge and instead of losing 450, you lose only 40 if Contador wins. But you gain to stand a profit if either Valverde or Sanchez win. Or even Martin for that matter.
One of those five riders will win. I will be surprised if another rider takes it. Considering all of those 5 riders can time trial better than Schleck but not S.Sanchez. But, those 5 riders, the finish on Stage 5, 10.7% over 3km, suit them more than Sanchez. But it suits Schleck.
The winner will be the rider that does a solid 8km time trial and gains 10-20 seconds and then can sprint to the line on that finish and get a further few seconds. Those 5 riders are capable of it.
But Sanchez isn't capable of it but he is capable of time trialing and Schleck is capable of it, but will lose time in that short time trial, so those two guys don't have what it takes compared to the other boys who can do both.
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