Paris-Roubaix 2025, one day monument, April 13 (men)

[Sciatic]

Can't think of many things better for maintaining traction on wet rocks.

True!

 

[Peyroteo94]

Now I can say, best day of the season! With rain, it is even better! Hope for no crashes!

 

[Cookster15]

For those interested, and you should, because they reflect reality, the betting markets give Pog a 20% chance of winning. Much less than Flanders.

Of course, no hills in PR. Thinking about this I'd say Pog's only (slim) chance would be to make a super long range attack when the others think he's crazy. Would MVDP, Wout or Mads jump on his wheel with 150km to go?

With the rain I just hope no serious injuries.

 

[scribers]

Of course, no hills in PR. Thinking about this I'd say Pog's only (slim) chance would be to make a super long range attack when the others think he's crazy. Would MVDP, Wout or Mads jump on his wheel with 150km to go?

With the rain I just hope no serious injuries.

Three hours of furious chase where they are slowly reeling pogi back in could be compelling

 

[Kwaremonster]

The difference with other races is that in this race Alpecin seems very strong, in more than just positioning MvdP. Crashes and punctures aside, they are still heavy favourites I think.

The team dynamic could actually be interesting. I think phillipsen will do more than just sit on wheels untill late in the race this time. He seemed very strong earlier in the spring, I think this was also on his mind. This makes me wonder if mvdp will again try to attack early or if we are in for a tactical race.

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

For those interested, and you should, because they reflect reality, the betting markets give Pog a 20% chance of winning. Much less than Flanders. MvdP the fave here. Rain, and MvdP is the massive fave. Wout and Mads will no doubt fancy their chances too. I think this could be an epic edition.

Wout and rain work in CX. Sure. it's not pure mud. but I think rain actually helps Wout more than Mathieu.

While I don't want Pog to win, if it rains, I really fear his particpation, as it relates to the increased probability of hitting the deck. He's the only one there with a chance to win 2 GT's this season.

 

[veganrob]

I think MvDP will mussel his way around the course, and seal victory.

A win by VdP would not be a fluke

 

[OlavEH]

Wout really deserves this one.

But both him and Pedersen should have fighting chance here. PR is a totally different race than RVV and it's much easier to stay on the wheel. Hell, two years ago Degenkolb was perhaps only a crash away from following VdP all the way to the velodrome in Roubaix.

 

[OlavEH]

Anybody but Pogacar. There is no reason to watch cycling anymore if he wins here too.

I second this!

 

[danielovichdk2]

I cannot see how Pedersen or Wout will be dropped here. This is where the teams will make a difference. Trek has the biggest guys, Visma right there behind them.

If Philipsen wins I will most likely explode in rage and regret I spent 5 hours watching a bike race.

Pedersen FTW.

 

[SafeBet]

I cannot see how Pedersen or Wout will be dropped here. This is where the teams will make a difference. Trek has the biggest guys, Visma right there behind them.

If Philipsen wins I will most likely explode in rage and regret I spent 5 hours watching a bike race.

Pedersen FTW.

Alpecin is at least as strong as Visma on paper. Roubaix has been their playground for the past 2 years.

 

[ice&fire]

Anybody but Pogacar. There is no reason to watch cycling anymore if he wins here too.

Let's be honest: nobody wants to face the reality that cobbles' specialists are vastly overrated.

 

[topcat]

We've been talking about cobble specialists for decades and now we find out there is no such thing. Anytime, any place, anywhere.

 

[pastronef]

I second this!

I tried, but my dislike for MVDP is bigger. so I'll hope Pog beats (him or Pedersen, or Ganna)

 

[Panda Claws]

Let's be honest: nobody wants to face the reality that cobbles' specialists are vastly overrated.

The best ones aren't really. Pretty much all of them proved more than capable of doing great things away from the cobbles. If you get to the second tier then sure there are some overrated riders but that probably applies to top-10 fodder in other races too.

On the other hand I do think that top GT riders are underrated in classics because they don't bother/risk riding them too often. Both Valverde and Nibali could have done (and somewhat did near the end of their careers) what Pogacar is doing albeit probably not at quite the same level. Contador too proved capable once he was forced to ride Eneco Tour in 2012.

Perhaps the GT stars overrated the cobbles specialists. Even with Pogacar's example though they aren't lining up to join him.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Let's be honest: nobody wants to face the reality that cobbles' specialists are vastly overrated.

This talk again... tell me a non cobbles specialist who does/did great in RVV and PR (in last 15 years)? Only two names, Pogacar and Gilbert.

 

[Salvarani]

This talk again... tell me a non cobbles specialist who does/did great in RVV and PR (in last 15 years)? Only two names, Pogacar and Gilbert.

Part of that is that they never really rode it for a long time.

G Thomas... but he just abandoned the cobbles after becoming GC-G. As said, barely any GC guys considered riding these for a long time. Unknown reasons.

I definitely think some of them would have done well, if they tried. Like Valverde, who only participated once and finished 8th. I would have liked to see what prime Valverde could have done vs Cancellara/Boonen.

We saw guys like Nibali and Fuglsang do well in the Tour.

Bettini, who could be considered a pretty light-weight rider, did well on the cobbles in Ronde. He was just another great rider who did well on a lot of different terrain. Never rode Roubaix.

I think many great riders would do well on different terrain, like Roubaix or Ronde, if they actually dare to try. Like better than what they expect. However, there also been a divide and give riders on the team races to target.

 

[pihi42]

I believe Tadej has a much greater chance of winning than anybody thinks. He has a godly endurance and can repeat attacks until everybody's dead. The only race he will perhaps never win is MSR (and that's just because of MVDP) because it's just too easy. Unless he starts attacking 100km from the finish. PR is as hard a race as they get. In the last 50km when everybody's half dead, that's Pogi territory. And don't forget - the rain was always his friend.

 

[pastronef]

Wiggins came 25th in 2009, 9th in 2014, 18th in 2015

 

[Salvarani]

The best ones aren't really. Pretty much all of them proved more than capable of doing great things away from the cobbles. If you get to the second tier then sure there are some overrated riders but that probably applies to top-10 fodder in other races too.

On the other hand I do think that top GT riders are underrated in classics because they don't bother/risk riding them too often. Both Valverde and Nibali could have done (and somewhat did near the end of their careers) what Pogacar is doing albeit probably not at quite the same level. Contador too proved capable once he was forced to ride Eneco Tour in 2012.

Perhaps the GT stars overrated the cobbles specialists. Even with Pogacar's example though they aren't lining up to join him.

Prime Armstrong and Ulrich probably would have done quite well in Ronde and PR as well. They just never bothered. Different times and priorities.

 

[ice&fire]

This talk again... tell me a non cobbles specialist who does/did great in RVV and PR (in last 15 years)? Only two names, Pogacar and Gilbert.

Non-cobbles specialists, in particular GT riders, tend to see cobbled races as crash prone events that may get in the way to their primary season goals, so they just don't show up.

 

[Brullnux]

Wiggins came 25th in 2009, 9th in 2014, 18th in 2015

Put on weight for the final two attempts, too.

A middle ground is probably best, no? Very few GC riders can truly cope with the constant accelerations on both flat and short steep hills of RVV, especially with the new route, but some can (like Valverde, who was basically an Ardennes specialist anyway). I think if you can be at the very front at Amstel, then you can also be more or less there at RVV (but not fighting for the win). However, most GC riders of 2000s and 2010s weren't in contention for Amstel, so point stands that GC specialists' skills don't translate all too well.

Paris-Roubaix is different, where cobbles experience/technique and pure power matters more, plus more injury risk. Good GC riders can do OK here as realistically they're normally strong time triallists, and have shown they can cope with cobbles pretty well when it's been in Grand Tours. Worth saying, though, that specialists aren't peaking or have teammates to help in July so it's not directly comparable. Fuglsang looked great, but it was wet cobbles and he has an MTB background, so it's more akin to Pidcock doing well last year.

Pogacar is just a freak. The very best Ardennes riders can obviously do pretty well at Ronde, but I don't think that means cobbled specialists are overrated, as I'm not sure any of them bar Pogacar can win.

 

[Keldergoat]

I cannot see how Pedersen or Wout will be dropped here. This is where the teams will make a difference. Trek has the biggest guys, Visma right there behind them.

If Philipsen wins I will most likely explode in rage and regret I spent 5 hours watching a bike race.

Pedersen FTW.

The problem for WvA is, he has to drop the others, more than the other way around. His sprint this year is worse than Pedersen, Philipsen or even MvdP. Also, without Benoot, Jorgensen, Kooij en Laporte, it looks like his team took a hit as well. Although I was impressed by his performance at RvV, I don't see him as the main favourite for Sunday.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I believe Tadej has a much greater chance of winning than anybody thinks. He has a godly endurance and can repeat attacks until everybody's dead. The only race he will perhaps never win is MSR (and that's just because of MVDP) because it's just too easy. Unless he starts attacking 100km from the finish. PR is as hard a race as they get. In the last 50km when everybody's half dead, that's Pogi territory. And don't forget - the rain was always his friend.

This. I will never forget the interview he gave to Attila. He said his favorite training is doing rides of 5 hours in zone two at 320/340 watts non stop. PR is the only race he can do what he loves.

 

[pastronef]

This. I will never forget the interview he gave to Attila. He said his favorite training is doing rides of 5 hours in zone two at 320/340 watts non stop. PR is the only race he can do what he loves.

but at Roubaix the tactics might work against Pog. there are stretches of asphalt where riders can attack, he cannot cover all the moves, if Trek or Alpecin have 2 riders there, he'll have too many to deal with, unless Wellens and Politt are sent in the break